Bloomberg:
How Democrats Broke the House Map Republicans Drew
Republicans routinely have been over-represented in Congress when you compare their share of the vote to their share of House seats won. Since 2000, Democrats have only won the House when they won a majority of the vote nationwide, as they did in 2018. Republicans have been able to do more with less, securing House majorities while winning less than 50 percent of the vote in four elections since 2000. In 2012, Republicans won a House majority even though their candidates won fewer votes than Democratic candidates.
Democrats have faced an uphill battle in the House since a Republican wave in 2010 gave the GOP control over drawing congressional maps in a majority of states. While Democrats often tallied huge margins in urban districts, many suburban districts have been just out of reach for their candidate.
2020 is so important. This is a message we were unable to convey in 2010.
Dan Balz/WaPo:
House results underscore that what’s good for Trump isn’t so good for the GOP
Yes, Republicans added to their narrow majority in the Senate. But that came by reinforcing what already is the party’s greatest strength: Trump with his rallies maximized support in solid red states, especially among voters in rural areas and small-town communities.
But the Trump-centric strategy backfired spectacularly in the race for control of the House, as suburban voters revolted against the president, delivering a rebuke to his party’s candidates in district after district. Democrats have gained 39 seats in the House with the possibility of hitting 40 depending on the outcome of the still uncalled election in California’s 21st District.
If the enthusiasm for Trump in rural and small-town America constituted the story after 2016, the revolt against him in the suburbs, led by female voters, has become the story of the 2018 elections. The more you analyze the House results, the more the GOP’s suburban problem stands out.
Remember, we are not done winning yet. There are still a handful of House seats to be decided including CA 21.
This isn’t triumphalism. This is what the analysts are saying. And it’s actually incredibly important because Trump’s message to white rural voters is not just 1950’s style racism and repression, it’s that he can win with it. If he doesn’t win, the rest falls apart.
For that reason consider that your well-intentioned “act like you’re 10 points down” at this stage might be counter-productive (or at least, pick and choose your spots for it and Trump’s re-election is not that spot).
Nan Whaley (Mayor, Dayton OH:
Ohio Isn’t a Red State Yet
But it will be if Democrats do not fight for working people in every corner of the state.
In statehouse races, Democrats nearly matched Republicans in total votes statewide, but they saw limited gains because of Republican gerrymandering. Our current legislative maps border on the absurd — despite winning just over 50 percent of the vote, Republicans will control more than three-fifths of the state legislative seats. Thankfully, voters in May enacted redistricting reforms that will make our next maps much fairer, allowing Democrats to compete on a more level playing field beginning in 2022.
While Republicans will control the governor’s mansion for another four years, Democrats continue to dominate in Ohio’s largest cities and counties. In places where Republicans can’t gerrymander the lines — including the 12 largest cities — local Democrats have been pursuing bold, progressive policies that strengthen communities. Toledo recently became one of the first cities in the nation to require the police to buy firearms only from responsible manufacturers. Columbus, home to a growing population of immigrants, is leading the fight to block the Trump administration’s attempts to sabotage the 2020 census.
See the Bloomberg piece as well, above.
Greg Bluestein/AJC:
‘The proof is in action.’ Kemp faces balancing act as Georgia governor
Making good on those campaign promises got more difficult after his slim win over Democrat Stacey Abrams, who ended her campaign with a fiery assertion that “democracy failed Georgians” under Kemp’s watch as secretary of state. She’s preparing a lawsuit that will amplify those claims.
He must also contend with a shrunken GOP majority in the state Legislature after Democrats paved a blue streak through the Atlanta suburbs. That means he’ll need significant bipartisan support for constitutional amendments and some other hotly debated legislation.
Kemp said he’s preparing for this precarious balancing act as he begins charting out his policy priorities. But true to his campaign message, he’s made no hint that he’ll abandon any of the conservative proposals that helped him win a tough GOP nominating contest.
He’s no moderate and won’t govern as a moderate. But he won’t have an easy time of it.
American leadership is invisible.
Amanda Marcotte/Salon:
Ivanka Trump’s email hypocrisy is especially grating — and reeks of sexism
The daily hypocrisies of Donald Trump, his family and his administration have piled up so fast that political observers, and journalists in particular, are going a bit numb. There have even been calls from some corners for an end to the harping on Trump's endless hypocrisies, on the grounds that everyone already knows the man has no political convictions, outside of racism, and shifts his opinions based strictly on what he thinks will gain him advantage in the moment. (This argument highly overrates how closely ordinary Americans are paying attention. The repetition that drives political insiders mad with boredom is often the bare minimum needed to get a story to sink in with average voters.)
But there's something that's a little more sticky about the story, reported by the Washington Post on Monday night, about Ivanka Trump breaking federal records rules by using her private email account to conduct government business. This bit of hypocrisy is catching a little more wind than most daily accounts of Trump or his staff flipping around and doing exactly the sort of things they railed against on the campaign trail.
Potentially divisive story of the day, but one we’ll have to get used to, so let’s put it out there and practice proactive good behavior. It’s not something you can avoid talking about, it will come up in multiple venues. So, get your practice clothes on, and practice being nice:
Edward Isaac-Dovere/Atlantic:
A Lot of People Want Bernie Sanders to Run in 2020
Including the Republicans who believe there's no way he can beat Donald Trump.
Most Republicans would see a Sanders candidacy as a gift, letting them paint the entire Democratic Party in socialism. The idea that he might emerge as the candidate against Trump is too much of a dream for them to even admit. Many Democrats agree.
Sanders’s team thinks all those people haven’t woken up to the new political reality, or to the power clearly demonstrated this year by independents and Millennials.
“He’s uniquely positioned to do better against Trump in the general because he appeals to white working-class and rural voters—much better than a conventional Democrat does,” said Ben Tulchin, who was Sanders’s 2016 pollster and remains in touch with his team. “He also is very popular and has done well in the Midwest, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, which are critical to winning.”
I say: let him run if he wants. Let them all run. There will be a progressive at the top of the ticket, we just don’t know who yet. Take this man’s advice:
Brian Schatz:
A few thoughts on 2020 since all of my friends appear to be running which is good. First, no one should be trying to figure this all out before the voting starts.
2nd, we must reject the premise that this is a fight between moderates and progressives. We are going to nominate a progressive.
3rd, the progressive we nominate should also be capable of getting votes from moderates and even republicans. That wouldn’t make them less progressive, that would make them better.
4th, everyone who wants to run should run. Primaries can and do strengthen the Party. If you are a governor or a mayor or a senator or member of the house or TV star - and you think you can help the country, try it!
5th, we had a successful formula in 2018 which was to run on policy (mostly healthcare) and against corruption. We should do that again.
6th, our grassroots donors enabled the DCCC and others to be competitive and ultimately win by expanding the playing field. That must continue.
7th, litmus tests are mostly stupid. That’s it for now.
And whoever loses will full-throatedly support the winner (Bernie or Sherrod or Kamela or Amy or whoever). That’s how it works.
If you want a full list of all the Democrats who might run, here’s a helpful list from Evan Siegfried:
With the 2018 midterms over, the 2020 presidential campaign has begun — and there are just over 23 months before Election Day 2020. Unlike 2016, Democrats don’t have a clear frontrunner and this has caused them to amass a massive field of potential candidates. They range from the serious to those running to increase their name recognition. Here is a list of all names to know with some information:
