A couple of late polls—our first and only of the race—snuck in ahead of Tuesday’s special election in Mississippi, and both give Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith the edge over Democrat Mike Espy. On behalf of the conservative site RRH Elections, the Democratic pollster Bold Blue Campaigns and the GOP firm JMC Analytics released a survey giving Hyde-Smith a 54-44 lead. Separately, the Democratic outfit Change Research found the incumbent ahead by a smaller 51-46 spread.
One thing to note, thought: The candidates won’t be listed with their party affiliations on Tuesday’s ballot, per the Mississippi laws that govern special elections. However, the RRH survey nevertheless identified Hyde-Smith as a Republican and Epsy as a Democrat. This could have an impact on the results, since it’s possible that some voters will vote differently than they would have if the candidates’ party labels were right in front of them. Indeed, Espy’s best hope rests on otherwise conservative voters who aren’t sure about Hyde-Smith deciding it’s easier to cross party lines and back the Democrat since, officially at least, they wouldn’t be crossing party lines at all.
But in a race that’s gotten this much attention, it’s unlikely many voters are genuinely unaware of which party each candidate belongs to. In fact, Change tells us that, while they left out the candidates’ party affiliation, they also quizzed respondents about Hyde-Smith and Espy’s party membership; about 98 percent correctly identified both.
While Espy is the underdog in this very red state, he did pull ahead in the fundraising contest in the final week of the race by outraising Hyde-Smith $749,000 to $480,000. However, GOP outside groups are still pouring in far more cash than Democrats. The NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund have spent a combined $2.8 million here, while Espy’s allies at Senate Majority PAC have thrown down a total of $874,000.
Both candidates also went up with new spots in the final week of the race. Espy released several new ads, the most notable of which goes after Hyde-Smith for her infamous “jokes” about wanting to watch a public lynching and her desire to make it harder for liberal college students to vote. Hyde-Smith’s closing spot features video of Donald Trump attacking Espy at a rally last month; Trump also made an election eve trip to Mississippi on Monday night for two more events for Hyde-Smith.
