The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● OK-05: GOP Rep. Steve Russell recently told the National Journal that he wasn't ruling out a comeback campaign to try and reclaim his Oklahoma City seat from Democrat Kendra Horn, though he said it was too early to seriously consider another bid. National Republicans, though, would almost certainly prefer if Russell decided that the time to seriously consider another bid turned out to be never.
Campaign Action
As we wrote just after the election, the Russell just never seemed to think he was in a very tough race. The incumbent was in fact so slow to prepare his re-election campaign that there was speculation in GOP circles that he would end up not seeking a third term. Russell did ramp up his schedule in the final month by hitting industry events such as an oil and gas conference and a health center ribbon-cutting, but it was too little, too late.
Russell also made plenty of other mistakes that contributed to his 51-49 defeat in a district that Trump had carried 53-40 two years before. Horn outraised Russell, but that still didn't seem to alarm him, since he reportedly never even told the NRCC he was in danger. The National Journal writes that Russell didn't run negative ads even as the polls tightened, a move that his own campaign team questioned. Neighboring GOP Rep. Frank Lucas also threw some shade at Russell after Election Day, saying, "If you don't define your opponent in a year like this, your opponent is going to define you," and adding, "It looks like that's what happened."
However, Russell still doesn't seem to have accepted that he blundered so badly, or why the negative ads Horn and her allies ran worked. Horn avoided mentioning Trump here and instead sought to tie the incumbent to Republican Gov. Mary Fallin, who was horrifically unpopular thanks in large part to the budget cuts that lead to four-day school weeks and a teacher's strike. Horn and Mike Bloomberg's Independence USA super PAC, which went up with a late TV buy here, ran ads hitting Russell for voting with Fallin to underfund schools while he served in the legislature.
Russell complained after Election Day to the National Journal about this strategy, griping, "Local and state issues were promoted to a federal level, which they aren't." Russell added that he was frustrated that he was attacked over a problem he had no say over, and that some voters may have gone to the polls thinking that, by firing him, they'd be changing state government policy. Of course, as we noted above, his opponents actually did attack him for his voting in the legislature to underfund schools, an argument that seems very much to have resonated.
But Russell went further in talking down to his soon-to-be-former constituents, adding, "If you don't study the issues, like a dog lapping up antifreeze, you'll lick it up; it tastes good. There's consequences." We've seen a lot of things in politics, but we don't think we've seen someone take comfort in imagining the people who voted him out dying from antifreeze poisoning. So yeah, we hope the GOP nominates him again.
But while Russell didn't win a third term in 2018, he did win something: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to officially present our second biennial John Mica Award for Most Clueless Incumbent to outgoing GOP Rep. Steve Russell. Congratulations, take a Styrofoam cup.
Russell should be proud, because there was a lot of competition in GOP ranks for this not-at-all-sought-after prize this cycle. In December, it looked like Texas GOP Rep. John Culberson was our frontrunner after the New York Times reported that he still had yet to hire a full-time campaign manager amidst a competitive race, and his supporters also found other reasons to worry he wasn't ready. Culberson ended up losing to Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher 52.5-47.5, but he did eventually organize a credible campaign. Still, Culberson still earns a dishonorable mention for spending $50,000 in campaign money since 2004 on collectibles, including $309 on a fossil.
In 2018's Hall of Shame also resides California Rep. Mimi Walters, who among so many other things launched a bid to lead the NRCC the day after Election Day, even though more ballots still had to be counted. Walters ultimately lost her seat to Democrat Katie Porter 52-48; maybe there's still an NRCC staff job she can fall back on.
There's fellow California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, who began his unsuccessful re-election campaign blissfully unaware he was in danger and ended it by associating himself with conspiracy theorists. All the while, Rohrabacher failed to raise enough money to defend himself from Democrat Harley Rouda, who unseated him 53.5-46.5.
And we're by no means done with the awards ceremony yet. There's Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, who bragged that he'd told outside groups not to spend on him because "it's up to me to win in Dallas, Texas. It's not up to some other group." Sessions ultimately got millions in outside help but lost to Democrat Colin Allred anyway, and by a wide 52-46 margin to boot.
There's New York Rep. Dan Donovan, who seemed to take a vacation from fundraising after winning his June primary and lost to Democrat Max Rose 53-47 in a 54-44 Trump seat. There's Virginia Rep. Dave Brat, who showed empathy to local inmates struggling with addiction by reminding them that he had "$5 million worth of negative ads going at me. How do you think I'm feeling? Nothing's easy. For anybody." Brat's hard life got harder on Election Day when he lost to Democrat Abigail Spanberger 50-48.
Wait, we still have some more cups to give out! There's Kansas Rep. Kevin Yoder, who bizarrely argued that Democrat Sharice Davids couldn't stand up to Trump because … she'd worked in the Department of Transportation as a White House fellow, a program that happened to stretch into the first year of Trump's presidency. Yoder, who was a reliable Trump vote, ended up getting ejected 53-44. Of course, there's South Carolina Rep. Mark Sanford, who left $1.5 million in his campaign war chest untouched even as he faced a serious, and ultimately successful, primary challenge from Katie Arrington.
Finally, there's Georgia Rep. Rob Woodall, the one Republican on this list who actually won re-election. It was for lack of trying, though. Woodall seemed to make the mistake of not only employing the disreputable pollster McLaughlin & Associates but actually believing their late October poll showing him leading Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux 59-32. Woodall barely campaigned and only went up with his first TV ad days before the election. Woodall ended up winning by just 419 votes, making this the closest House race in the nation—good enough for a fifth term and first-runner up prize for the John Mica Award.
However, neither Woodall nor all these other Republicans were quite clueless enough to deny the grand prize to Steve Russell. Congratulations, hope we see you on the ballot in 2020!
Senate
● MS-Sen: Apparently, we could be in for a 2016 Mississippi Senate special election reunion tour next cycle. Democrat Mike Espy lost Tuesday’s runoff to GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith 54-46, and while he doesn’t seem to have said anything about his 2020 plans, McClatchy speculates that he could try again. They note that Espy’s concession speech, where he declared that “tonight is the beginning, not the end” and that his movement was “not going to stop moving our state forward just because of one election,” made it sound like he’s interested in another bid.
Meanwhile, GOP state Sen. Chris McDaniel is openly talking about another try in two years. McDaniel, who has also flirted with running for governor next year, told McClatchy he’s “here to fight for conservatives,” saying, “If that means running again in 2020, I’ll do that, if it means running for something else, I’m going to do that.” McDaniel added that he wants “the establishment to understand I’m not ruling anything out.”
At this point, though, the establishment may not care that much. While McDaniel’s 2014 tea party-fueled primary campaign against incumbent Thad Cochran came very close to victory, his star has dimmed quite a lot since then. Republican power-brokers, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, were very wary about having him as their nominee in 2018, and Donald Trump ended up endorsing Hyde-Smith. In the end, McDaniel took just 16 percent in the first round of this month’s special election, falling well short of the second runoff slot.
For some reason, though, McDaniel seems to think there’s a chance that Trump would endorse him over Hyde-Smith this time, telling McClatchy, “If he is going to involve himself in statewide primaries, if he’s on our side, that’s a very strong friend to have. If he’s not on our side, that would make a race almost impossible.” He’s right about that last bit at least.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: GOP Sen. John Kennedy's team says he'll announce if he's running for governor on Monday. Kennedy previously said he'd declare his plans before Dec 1, but his spokesperson says he postponed his announcement because of his travel schedule.
● MS-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves hasn't announced his long-awaited 2019 bid for governor yet, but he told a Republican Governors Association meeting that "the most likely timeframe to get in the race from my perspective" are the weeks leading up to the Jan. 8 legislative session.
House
● FL-15: Republican Ross Spano defeated Democrat Kristen Carlson 53-47 in a central Florida seat that had backed Donald Trump 53-43, and Carlson is considering another try in 2020. Carlson says she expects to decide at the beginning of next year, arguing that she lost in part because she only started running after Rep. Dennis Ross announced he was retiring in April.
If Carlson gets in, she may have company in the primary. Navy veteran Andrew Learned, whom Carlson beat 53-32, said supporters are encouraging him to try again and added, "I'm keeping my options open. It's too soon to decide." Retired Polk County Judge Bob Doyel also said that running here "is one of the many things I might do." Doyel challenged GOP state Sen. Kelli Stargel this year in a 52-45 Trump seat and lost 53-47.
● FL-26: GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo lost a very expensive contest to Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 51-49, and it doesn't sound like he's excited to seek a rematch in 2020. Curbelo didn't quite rule out the idea in an interview with the Miami Herald in which he said that supporters were encouraging him to try again, but he expressed far more interest in running for mayor of Miami-Dade County instead.
Curbelo also indicated that he might not have run for Congress again in 2020 even if he'd won this year, since he said that he'd "always thought about the idea of serving another two years here and then serving as county mayor. This work is certainly not easy on the family." He added that he doesn't plan to decide on any future runs for office anytime soon.
● MI-13: On Thursday, Democrat Brenda Jones was sworn in as a member of Congress after she and House leadership reached a deal that would allow her to remain president of the Detroit City Council during her month in Washington.
This odd situation came about because Jones won the August Democratic primary for the final two months of former Rep. John Conyers' term on the same day that she narrowly lost the primary for a full two-year term to Rashida Tlaib. Michigan law didn't allow Jones to just decline her party's nomination, and she unsurprisingly didn't want to resign from the city council just to serve a few weeks in Congress in the lame duck session.
It wasn't clear for months whether Jones could serve in both offices at once. The House Ethics Manual states that, while the U.S. Constitution doesn't prohibit members from also holding state or local office, the House historically has held that "high state office is incompatible with congressional membership."
Indeed, this came up in 1909 when GOP Rep. George Lilley was sworn in as governor of Connecticut without resigning from the House. The House Judiciary Committee ended up deciding that Lilley couldn't hold both posts at once and recommended vacating his House seat and removing his name from the clerk's rolls; the House later passed a resolution signing off on this decision. (Lilley ended up dying less than four months into his governorship.)
Jones made a last-minute attempt to sidestep the problem when she launched a write-in campaign against Tlaib days before the election, but that didn't go very far. On Nov. 6, Jones won the special election for the remainder of Conyers' term with 87 percent of the vote and about 169,000 votes at the same time that her write-in campaign for the full two-year term collected just 0.32 percent, which amounted to all of 633 votes.
For several weeks, it wasn't clear if Jones would take her seat in Congress, or if this Detroit-area district would go without a representative until Tlaib would be sworn in in January. Jones argued that she could serve in the House and on the city council simultaneously because the council is currently on recess until January. Outgoing Speaker Paul Ryan's office spent the weeks after the election saying that it was "evaluating" the matter, but things finally came to a head this week after the state certified the election results and Jones headed to D.C.
On Thursday, Ryan's spokesperson announced that, while the "House had a precedent dating from 1909 that made clear that service as both a member of Congress and a state or local official were not compatible," they would "carve out a narrow exception to the 1909 precedent" for Jones. Under the agreement, Jones will not accept any pay from the city council or participate in any votes there while serving in Congress.
● SC-01: Republican Katie Arrington has sounded very likely to seek a rematch with Democrat Joe Cunningham, who beat her 51-49, but she's not committing to anything just yet. Arrington told the Post & Courier this week, "It's two years of whatever God has in store and we'll see where we are in, I'll say, six months," adding, "Everyone should know where we are in six months."
Whether national Republicans will want Arrington, who lost this 53-40 Trump seat in a surprise, as their nominee again is another story. The Post & Courier took a deep dive into went wrong for Arrington and found that she had plenty of problems. One of the big ones was her fundraising struggles against Cunningham. She also was held back by her very inconsistent stances on oil drilling off the coast of South Carolina, a major issue in this Charleston-area seat. Cunningham made it clear from the beginning that he opposed drilling, and he ran ads staring local GOP officials who said they were backing him in part because they trusted him to safeguard the coast.
Arrington's strategy to portray herself as a committed Trump ally also likely hurt her in November. While it helped her unseat Rep. Mark Sanford in the primary, Trump wasn't quite so popular in suburban areas that had usually voted Republican. It didn't help that Sanford loudly and repeatedly refused to endorse her.
● TX-10: GOP Rep. Mike McCaul held off Democrat Mike Siegel, a city attorney for Austin, by a surprisingly small 51-47 margin in a race that attracted no outside attention. Siegel recently said he's "very open to running again" for this this 52-43 Trump seat, which stretches from Austin east into the Houston area.
● TX-21: Republican Chip Roy won his open seat race against Democrat Joseph Kopser just 50-48, which was easily the closest Team Blue has come to taking this district in a very long time. Kopser, an Army veteran who proved to be a good fundraiser, hasn't ruled out a repeat bid, recently telling the Austin American-Statesman, "As for 2020, I'm not sure my exact plans, but I plan to stay engaged to fix the problems I see in front of us." This seat, which includes parts of the Austin and San Antonio areas as well as part of the Texas Hill Country (and with it almost all the places that Robert Caro wrote about when he was describing Lyndon Johnson's childhood in The Path to Power), backed Trump 52-42.
● TX-30, TX-13: While Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, who turns 83 next week, has been the subject of retirement rumors for years, there's a good chance she'll want to stick around now that she'll be back in the majority. Johnson is in line to chair the U.S. House Science, Space and Technology Committee, and the Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston writes that she's unlikely to give up her safely blue Dallas seat as a result.
By contrast, Livingston writes that GOP operatives think that Rep. Mac Thornberry could retire. Thornberry is the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, but since party term-limits will force him to give up that prominent post in 2021, it might be a good time for him to call it a career. So far, though, Thornberry hasn't publicly indicated that he's eyeing an exit. Thornberry's seat, which includes Amarillo in the north of the Texas Panhandle as well as Wichita Falls, is one of the reddest seats in the nation at 80-17 Trump.
● UT-04: GOP Rep. Mia Love conceded defeat to Democrat Ben McAdams on Monday after final results showed her losing 50.1-49.9, and she hasn't ruled out a 2020 rematch. However, unnamed GOP insiders tell Utah Policy that they think she's trying to get a job as a TV political commentator instead.
Indeed, Love attracted plenty of attention in her concession speech when she went after not just McAdams and the media but also Donald Trump, whom she's voted with 96 percent of the time, and the GOP as a whole. Love, who is black, declared that this election "shines a spotlight on the problems Washington politicians have with minorities and black Americans. It's transactional. They're not willing to take us into their homes and hearts."
Love also hit Trump for saying right after the election that she "gave me no love, and she lost. Too bad. Sorry about that Mia." Love said that when Trump "took a jab at me because he thought the race was over, and he lamented that I wouldn't ask him to come to Utah." She added, "Why would he say such a thing? It gave me a clear vision of his world. No real relationships, just convenient transactions."
Love concluded by declaring that her defeat had "unleashed" her to speak her mind, and, "Come January, I can actually say the things that I believe will make some good positive changes in our country and I don't have to worry about who is going to be okay with that." It sounds like Love is intent on torching all her nominal allies in D.C., which would be bad if she actually wanted to run again … but great if she wanted to fill the much sought-after role of GOP Trump critic on TV.
● VA-02: Fresh off his narrow 51-49 loss to Democrat Elaine Luria, GOP Rep. Scott Taylor isn't ruling out a 2020 comeback. When the Daily Press asked him if he was interested Taylor responded, "I can't answer that question right now ... I haven't made any decisions." Still, Taylor also said he was looking for employment, and has "already been in discussion with the White House a couple of times."
However, there's at least one reason that Taylor may not want to run. A special prosecutor is still investigating former Taylor staffers over a petition fraud scandal in an attempt to get 2016 Democratic nominee Shaun Brown on the ballot as an independent this year. Taylor denies the story hurt him at the ballot box (even though Democrats ran ads hammering him on it), though he says he wishes the investigation had concluded before Election Day. No matter what Taylor does, Team Red is going to want to target this 51-47 Trump seat in Hampton Roads.
● DCCC: On Thursday, House Democrats elected Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos to chair the DCCC for the upcoming cycle, the first time the position has ever been put to a contested vote following reforms Nancy Pelosi agreed to two years ago that took the decision out of her hands. Bustos won 117 votes to defeat a pair of representatives from the state of Washington: Denny Heck, who finished second with 83 votes, and Suzan Delbene, who took just 32. A fourth candidate, New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, dropped out of the race on Wednesday.
Bustos is in an unusual position because campaign committee chairs usually hail from safe districts or states; her district, Illinois' 17th, actually voted narrowly for Trump, 47.4-46.7. Bustos, however, cited this as a strength rather than a weakness, arguing that her history of winning a suburban and rural district like this one (which veered sharply away from Democrats after voting 58-41 for Barack Obama in 2012) made her best-suited to help defend the 30 other Democrats who now also occupy Trump seats.
Bustos also noted that she won her own race this year by a wider margin—24 points—than any of her actual or potential competitors. (Heck won by 23, Delbene by 19, and Maloney by just 10.) Republicans have, however, tried challenging her in the past and could do so again. But Bustos is a monster fundraiser, and she's not likely to be a top target as the GOP looks to reclaim the majority in 2020, particularly given the large number of freshmen legislators in the Democratic caucus.
● Blue Dogs: The Blue Dog Coalition, which represents the most conservative faction of House Democrats remaining in the party's caucus, added seven incoming freshmen to its ranks this week, all who won districts carried by Trump:
- Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02)
- Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11)
- Xochitl Torres Small (NM-02)
- Max Rose (NY-11)
- Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)
- Ben McAdams (UT-04)
- Abigail Spanberger (VA-07)
However, with 24 total members, the group makes up just 10 percent of House Democrats and is still far smaller than it was at its peak following the 2008 elections, when it featured 54 members. More than half of the coalition was wiped out in the 2010 Republican wave, and as the Democratic Party has generally grown more progressive, the Blue Dogs have never been able to reassert their former strength.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: Former Tennessee Rep. and Nashville Mayor Richard Fulton, who was one of just seven Southern Democrats to back the 1964 Civil Rights Act, died Wednesday at the age of 91.
Fulton, who was a high school football star and later played at the University of Tennessee, got his start in politics when he supported his older brother's successful state Senate campaign in the early 1950s. Lyle Fulton, however, soon died in office and the younger Fulton was elected to succeed him in 1955. However, at 29, Richard Fulton was too young to serve, and his colleagues voted to remove him from office. Fulton successfully ran for the seat again the next year, when he was of legal age to take the seat.
Fulton ran for the House that same year in a Nashville-based seat but badly lost the Democratic primary to Rep. Percy Priest 68-32. Two years later, he lost another primary to Rep. Carlton Loser 56-44; when he sought a rematch in 1962 and initial results showed Loser narrowly prevailing. However, The Tennessean uncovered corruption that led to lawsuits against the elections board, and the primary results were eventually thrown out. Fulton won his rematch with Loser that year and finally claimed the seat.
While Fulton had criticized Priest back in 1956 for not signing the pro-segregationist Southern Manifesto, he had a very different outlook once he got to Congress. Fulton quickly made history in the House when he became the first Southern member to hire a black staffer. In 1964, Fulton also stood out when voted for the Civil Rights Act. Fulton also supported the Fair Housing Act in 1968, another piece of legislation that was a risky vote at home. That year brought Fulton his only competitive re-election campaign, in which he held off a GOP foe 49-42.
Fulton remained in the House until he was elected decisively mayor of Nashville in 1975. During his 12-year tenure, Fulton was credited with starting to redevelop downtown, including championing the Music City Center convention hall. However, his later attempts to run statewide didn't go well. Fulton took third place in the 1978 Democratic primary for governor with just 16 percent of the vote, and came in third again eight years later with 26 percent.
In 1999, a dozen years after leaving office, Fulton attempted a comeback for mayor. However, while Fulton made the runoff, he ended up dropping out and endorsing rival Bill Purcell.
