Morning Digest: Longest-serving House Republican is in for a real race in Alaska

Alaska At-Large District Rep. Don Young (R)

Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● AK-AL (Likely R to Lean R): GOP Rep. Don Young has represented the entire state in the House since 1973, and it would take a lot for him to lose in this red state. However, there are several signs that Alyse Galvin, an independent who won the Democratic nomination, could give him his toughest contest in a long time. Indeed, the Congressional leadership Fund made a last-minute buy to support Young, backed by six figures.

Multiple recent polls have given Young just a small edge, and a new survey from the Democratic firm Alaska Survey Research on behalf of a "consortium of varied interests" even gave Galvin a 49-48 lead. Galvin also has been a strong fundraiser, outraising the incumbent by a hefty $936,000 to $268,000 from July 1 to Oct. 17.

But perhaps most importantly, Galvin has one other advantage that Young's last few opponents didn't have. Young beat his last two Democratic foes 50-40 and 50-36, respectively, with the rest of the vote going to independent and third party candidates. However, while Young didn't come close to losing either campaign, he still barely took a majority of the vote both times, a big potential danger sign for such a well-established incumbent.

This time around, Galvin is the only other candidate on the ballot, so if Young slips below 50 percent, there won't be any third or fourth candidates to save him from defeat. And thanks to her unusual positioning—she'll be identified both as "unaffiliated" and as the Democratic Party nominee on the ballot—Galvin might be able to win some votes that might have eluded a traditional Democratic candidate. She's still the underdog, and we certainly haven't forgotten how Young defied the polls to win re-election in 2008, but this could be the year he finally goes down.

Election Day

● Election Night: Happily Evers After?: The big night is almost here, and we have a lot of exciting races in store. Democrats are making a strong drive to flip the House and take several governorships, while the GOP is hoping to pad their majority in the Senate. To help follow along, we have an hour-by-hour guide for what to watch Tuesday. The fireworks start at 6 PM ET, when polls close in most of Indiana and Kentucky.

We'll be liveblogging all the action starting at 6 PM ET Tuesday at Daily Kos Elections. We'll also be tweeting the proceedings. We hope to see you here tonight for what will be a historic evening!

Race Rating Changes

● AZ-Gov (Likely R to Safe R): While GOP Gov. Doug Ducey looked potentially vulnerable only a few months ago, this race just never came together for Democrat David Garcia. Ducey and his allies at the RGA spent tens of millions of dollars on negative ads defining Garcia, and national Democrats never came into aid him. While polls still show a very tight Senate race in the Grand Canyon State, they consistently show Ducey over the 50-percent mark and Garcia far behind.

● KS-Gov (Lean R to Tossup): Polls have consistently shown a very tight race between Republican Kris Kobach and Democrat Laura Kelly in this red state, despite the presence of independent Greg Orman, whom we've always feared could cost Team Blue the win. However, other third-party candidates seem to be drawing votes away from Kobach, whose ultra-conservative toxicity has made him anathema to many moderate Republicans. Kansas is still a red state and Democrats can't take anything for granted here, but while a Kelly win would certainly still be a major accomplishment, we can no longer say we think it would be an upset.

● SC-Gov (Likely R to Safe R): This is another gubernatorial race in a red southern state that doesn't look very appealing for Democrats despite some potential early promise. The few polls we've seen show GOP Gov. Henry McMaster well ahead of Democrat James Smith, and though Smith released a poll in August showing him down just 47-43, he hasn't unveiled any more recent numbers.  While the RGA did run an ad against Smith in mid-October, we've seen little outside spending on either side since then, another good indication that this contest isn't in play.

● FL-06 (Likely R to Lean R): Team Blue is making a big push for this open Volusia County-based seat late in the game. House Majority PAC deployed $326,000 here recently, while Mike Bloomberg's Independence USA jumped in with a hefty $1.6 million ad campaign in the final week. National Republicans still haven't devoted money here even with Democrat Nancy Soderberg decisively outraising Republican Michael Waltz, so perhaps they feel that this 57-40 seat isn't going anywhere—or perhaps they're so stretched at this late point they just have to take their chances.

While Trump won big here, Romney carried this district by a modest 52-47 and Obama narrowly won it in 2008, so it could snap back in a good year for Democrats. Polling has been scarce in the last month and this area is still a tough lift, but this race is looking a lot more interesting than it did even a few weeks ago.

● GA-07 (Likely R to Lean R): Some Republicans have privately fretted that Rep. Rob Woodall hasn't taken his race against Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux seriously, and they probably didn't feel any better after Independence USA threw down $913,000 against him in the final week of the contest. Woodall, who has barely been campaigning, finally went up with his first TV spot on Friday. The commercial praises this suburban Atlanta seat's diversity and features people saying that they support Woodall in different languages—not exactly your typical Republican message.

In past years, Woodall could easily have gotten by with little or no advertising, but this time is different. This district moved from 60-38 Romney to only 51-45 Trump, and as Woodall's own ad notes, it's indeed quite diverse, since 42 percent of potential voters here are people of color. And while Woodall has snoozed, Bourdeaux's been running a well-funded campaign.

A mid-October survey from the GOP firm JMC Analytics and Democratic pollster Bold Blue Campaigns gave Woodall a 49-43 lead, and he probably still has the advantage going into Election Day. However, that same sample found Democrat Stacey Abrams narrowly ahead in this district in the race for governor, and if Abrams does well here on Tuesday, Woodall's decision to phone it in could cost him dearly.

● NE-02 (Lean R to Likely R): While Trump carried this Omaha-area seat just 49-47, things aren't looking good for Democrat Kara Eastman. Polls, including an Eastman internal, have all shown GOP Rep. Don Bacon ahead. But it's an even bigger concern that, at a time when Democratic groups have been expanding their spending into seats that Trump won handily, they never ran ads here. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund is still on the airwaves in the final week, so Republicans aren't acting like this one is a lock, but Bacon is strongly favored to win a second term.

● OK-05 (Safe to Likely R): There wasn't any major outside spending for this 53-40 Trump seat in the Oklahoma City area until the final days of the campaign, when Independence USA launched what the Wall Street Journal reports is a $423,000 buy against GOP Rep. Steve Russell. Their spot wisely ties Russell to GOP Gov. Mary Fallin, who is leaving office with horrifically bad approval ratings. The narrator declares that while Russell was in the legislature, he voted with Fallin to underfund schools, and in Congress "voted for a plan that would jeopardize Pell Grants," before declaring that Democrat Kendra Horn is great on education.

This is another seat that's going to be a major challenge for Democrats to flip even in a strong year, but Independence USA's decision to spend here late in the game is a sign that they think it's possible. Horn has also been a credible fundraiser, and she outraised Russell $541,000 to $207,000 from July 1 to Oct. 17 (though Horn had to spend much of that winning a late August runoff).

Unfortunately, the polls we haven aren't too encouraging. Russell released a poll from VCreek/AMG in mid-October that gave him a 51-35 lead, while a SoonerPoll taken in the final days of October for the local media had him up 49-37. Still, Fallin's toxicity and Independence USA's spending may give Horn the chance to pull off a big surprise, so we'll be keeping an eye on this one on Tuesday.

● SC-01: (Likely R to Lean R): This is another red seat that Republicans still haven't put away in the final days. The NRCC raised eyebrows on Monday when they said they were airing ads here the first time, and while they initially announced that they were deploying just $87,000, it turned out to be a more substantial $230,000 expenditure. Meanwhile, the progressive group 314 Action has been spending $400,000 on ads to aid Democrat Joe Cunningham against Republican Katie Arrington.

Arrington still has the advantage against Cunningham in this 53-40 seat, but the NRCC may be right to be concerned here. Cunningham has focused his campaign on his opposition to drilling off the coast of South Carolina, a key issue in a Charleston-area district with important tourism and fishing industries. Rep. Mark Sanford, whom Arrington unseated in the June GOP primary, has also made life difficult by loudly and repeatedly refusing to endorse her. This area is red enough that Arrington still has room for error here, and she may need it.

Senate

● AZ-Sen: On Thursday, Green Party candidate Angela Green dropped out and endorsed Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, although it's of course far too late to remove her name from the ballot. Green had been polling in the low single digits, and roughly 60 percent of voters have already cast their ballots in a state where early and absentee voting are very popular, so it's unlikely this development will prove decisive unless the election is extremely close.

● MI-Sen: While the national party committees and their allied super PACs have stayed out of Michigan's Senate race, the conservative group Ending Spending launched a late $1 million ad buy to help Republican John James.

● Polls: The latest Senate polls:

• AZ-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Martha McSally: (R): 48, Kyrsten Sinema (D): 43.
• AZ-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Sinema (D): 47, McSally (R): 42 (early Oct.: 45-42 McSally)
• CA-Sen: YouGov for Stanford University: Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 36, Kevin de Leon (D): 29
• FL-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Rick Scott (R): 47, Bill Nelson (D-inc): 46 (Oct.: 46-46 tie)
• FL-Sen: Vox Populi (R): Scott (R): 48, Nelson (D-inc): 43
• IN-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 42, Mike Braun (R): 42
• MO-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 46, Josh Hawley (R): 44
• MT-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Jon Tester (D-inc): 48, Matt Rosendale (R): 41
• NJ-Sen: Stockton University: Bob Menendez (D-Inc): 51, Bob Hugin (R): 39, Murray Sabrin (L): 3 (Sept.: 45-43 Menendez)
• NV-Sen: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Jacky Rosen (D): 46, Dean Heller (R-inc): 43

Gubernatorial

● GA-Gov: With polls showing the contest between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp coming down to the wire, the DGA has sent an additional $3.3 million to the Georgia Democratic Party, with most of that devoted to ads. If neither candidate wins an outright majority thanks to the presence of Libertarian Ted Metz and other minor candidates, as looks likely, there would be a Dec. 4 runoff.

● Polls: The latest gubernatorial polls:

• CT-Gov: Sacred Heart University for Connecticut Hearst Media: Bob Stefanowski: (R) 40, Ned Lamont (D): 38, Oz Griebel (I): 9 (Oct.: 40-36 Lamont)
• FL-Gov: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Andrew Gillum: (D): 48, Ron DeSantis (R): 44.
• FL-Gov: Vox Populi (R): Gillum (D): 47, DeSantis (R): 44
• GA-Gov: University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Stacey Abrams (D): 47, Brian Kemp (R): 47, Ted Metz (L): 2 (Oct.: 48-46 Kemp)
• ME-Gov: Slingshot Strategies: Janet Mills (D): 55, Shawn Moody (R): 38, Terry Hayes (I): 8 (Sept.: 41-33 Mills)
• MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP: Tim Walz (D): 49, Jeff Johnson (R): 41 (Sept.: 47-40 Walz)
• NV-Gov: Harris Interactive for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation: Steve Sisolak (D): 46, Adam Laxalt (R): 44

Sacred Heart's poll is the first in Connecticut to show Stefanowski leading, but there are two notes of caution. First, they only included respondents who voted in 2016, which means they could be leaving out a group of voters who didn't cast ballots two years ago but are newly energized by Trump and are therefore likely to favor Democrats.

Second, the school has almost no track record prior to this year. We scanned our databases going back to the 2010 cycle and came up with nothing. All we could find in the last decade was a lone 2008 poll of Connecticut's 4th District putting Republican Rep. Chris Shays up 10 on Democrat Jim Himes; Himes won by 4. Republicans are still spending heavily to contest this race, but they've never released any favorable polling of their own.

House

● CA-25: Bizarre: Just a day after refusing to take down a campaign ad starring a man with a long history of racist, anti-Semitic, and violent social media posts, Republican Rep. Steve Knight's campaign has removed it from the web … and claims that it hasn't even been on the air "for several weeks." Knight still has not managed to apologize.

● CO-06: Everytown for Gun Safety has launched a late $724,000 TV buy in support of Democrat Jason Crow.

● FL-26: The NRCC's latest TV ad attacking Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell breaks new ground for its cynical hypocrisy, accusing her of profiting off of a company that violates anti-pollution laws and taking "thousands in dirty coal money," trying to portray her as an enemy of the environment in a district that is highly vulnerable to climate change. That evidence that she took that supposed coal money refers to a measly $2,700 donation from ... Tom Steyer, a billionaire environmentalist megadonor who has spent countless millions backing pro-environment candidates after making money investing in fossil fuel industries earlier in his career.

Of course, the NRCC has no standing to make this sort of attack, given that it's funded to the tune of millions from fossil fuel industries, including the Koch family. Furthermore, congressional Republicans are doing everything they can to let the Trump administration dismantle environmental regulations and block Democratic proposals to fight climate change from even getting a vote.

● NC-09: CNN has unearthed a 2011 sermon by former pastor Mark Harris, a Republican who faces a tough race for North Carolina's 9th Congressional District against Democrat Dan McCready, in which he declared after visiting Israel that Jews and Muslims would not achieve peace unless both converted to Christianity:

"You cannot be in that land, as powerful and as moving as it is, without realizing the incredible tension that is constantly in that land between the Palestinians and the Jews," Harris said. "There will never be peace in Jerusalem until the day comes that every knee shall bow, every tongue shall confess that Jesus Christ is Lord. […]

"Jesus, when he went into Jerusalem, said, 'I am the vine. I am the true vine,' and until those that are called in Islam realize that and until those that are called in Judaism realize that, for that matter, until those that are caught in the religion of Christianity and are missing the personal relationship with Jesus Christ, realize that, there'll never be peace in their soul or peace in their city."

Harris has a deep history of offensive commentary borne out of his fundamentalist views, but in a moment when the GOP has fully embraced anti-Semitism and Islamophobia in a desperate bid to cling to power, he fits right in.

● NY-11: VoteVets has launched a $200,000 media buy against GOP Rep. Dan Donovan in a race that hasn't attracted much outside spending.

● OH-01: On Thursday, the Ohio Elections Commission declined to sanction Democrat Aftab Pureval over a poll of his congressional race that had been paid for out of his local campaign account. The commission did fine Pureval $100 for paying a photographer to take pictures of his congressional campaign kickoff from his local account, something his former campaign manager says was an accident.

But the damage has already been done. While seemingly an arcane matter, Republicans hyped the poll payment to near-histrionic levels, with the Congressional Leadership Fund even running an ad saying the imbroglio "could land [Pureval] in jail." Obviously nothing of the sort transpired, but the ads helped blunt Pureval's momentum, and the last three polls have shown him trailing GOP Rep. Steve Chabot by 7 to 9 points.

● OH-12: After badly lagging behind Democratic challenger Danny O'Connor in fundraising, Republican Rep. Troy Balderson is having to rely on the NRCC to help bail him out following hs narrow special election victory over O'Connor this summer. One unnamed Republican operative who spoke with the Columbus Dispatch said Balderson "appears to be allergic to fundraising," and the NRCC is consequently paying to run joint ads with him.

● VA-07: Former Republican Sen. John Warner has endorsed a second Democrat in a contested Virginia House race: Abigail Spanberger, who is running against GOP Rep. Dave Brat in the 7th District. A few days earlier, Warner gave his backing to Leslie Cockburn, who is running in the neighboring 5th District.

● Polls: Last but not least, the latest House polls:

• CA-48: TPStrat Research (R): Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc): 51, Harley Rouda (D): 42 (mid-Oct.: 49-41 Rohrabacher)
• CA-49: SurveyUSA for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune: Mike Levin (D): 51, Diane Harkey (R): 44
• IA-01: Siena for the New York Times: Abby Finkenauer (D): 46, Rod Blum (R-inc): 39 (Sept.: 52-37 Finkenauer)
• NY-27: Dixie Strategies (R) for WHEC-TV: Chris Collins (R-inc): 45, Nate McMurray (D): 38
• VA-10: George Mason University for the Washington Post: Jennifer Wexton (D): 54, Barbara Comstock (R-inc): 43 (Oct.: 56-43 Wexton)

Grab Bag

● Prediction Contest: It's the most wonderful time of the year: That's right, Daily Kos Elections' prediction contest is back! This year, we're thrilled to announce that the exceptional Green's Bakery has generously donated the prizes for the top four finishers: the lavish, 52-oz Executive Babka! For more details, including contest rules and our submission form, click here.