The war for control of the U.S. House and Senate is getting most of the election attention this week, but the outcome of this cycle’s battles for party power at the state legislative level will have profound and long-term impacts on policy, redistricting, and more.
Republicans currently have majorities in 66 legislative chambers (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature being nominally nonpartisan), while Democrats control 32. Of the 99 legislatures in country, 87 are up on Nov. 6, and with Democratic voter enthusiasm at a historically high level, Republicans seem poised to lose some of their power at the state level. The GOP has, however, successfully stacked major obstacles to Democrats’ path back to the majority in many states, including partisan gerrymandering, voter suppression laws, and high levels of conservative spending.
One measure of partisan power at the state level that’s ripe for drastic shifts on Nov. 6 is trifecta control of state government—that is, when one party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governorship. Currently, just eight states have Democratic trifectas, while 26 are completely controlled by Republicans. Democrats are poised to end GOP trifectas in as many as six states and could pick up four more of their own.
I’ve previously listed out my ratings of the flippability of various chambers, but here’s a handy clip-n-save—with a sweet map, see above—of the states ripe for shifts in party control on Tuesday night.
- Alaska House (17D/21R/2I; effective Democratic control): A slew of Republican retirements and two years of relative success as a majority coalition give Democrats a better shot at holding control than how things appear on paper, so to speak. (Three Republicans currently caucus with the Democrats.) A win by gubernatorial candidate Mark Begich could result in Democrats effectively controlling two of the three levers of state government in this otherwise red state.
- Arizona Senate (13D/17R): Democrats only need to flip two seats to tie the chamber, three to control it outright. Democrats have left just one seat uncontested (full stats on that for all chambers right here), while Republicans have given five Democrats walks on Nov. 6. Latino turnout will likely determine whether this is the year Democrats finally take this white whale or if it’s yet another “Oh Dang We Were So Close” year. Democrats are unlikely to flip the governorship here, so winning a majority in the state Senate presents Democrats’ best odds of breaking this GOP trifecta. Bonus drama: Arizona lacks a lieutenant governor to preside over the Senate and break ties, so watch for party defections or a power-sharing agreement if the election leaves this chamber tied.
- Arizona House (25D/35R): Democrats out-recruited Republicans here this cycle, and with House districts identical to Senate districts (the former elect two representatives each), success in the upper chamber is likely to translate to the lower chamber.
- Connecticut Senate (18D/18R; effective Democratic control): Retirements on both sides and comparably successful recruitment between the parties help make this anyone’s game. Hopefully outgoing Gov. Dan Malloy’s unpopularity doesn’t poison the well too badly for Democrats. (Note: Ties are currently broken by the Democratic lieutenant governor, so if it remains tied, the outcome of this year’s open-seat race for that position will loom large.) Massive outside GOP spending on key races in this chamber is helping put Democratic trifecta control at serious risk in this generally reliably blue state.
- Colorado Senate (16D/18R/1I): Democrats are effectively one seat away from chamber control, but that doesn’t make this a gimme. Republicans want to keep this Senate as much as Democrats want to take it from them, and outside spending is into the millions of dollars on both sides. With Jared Polis looking good to win the governorship, Colorado could become a Democratic trifecta state after the Election Day dust settles.
- Delaware Senate (11D/10R): Democrats are probably fine here this year, but this margin is a bit too close for comfort in this blue state, especially with three Democratic retirements and comparable recruitment on both sides. Republicans don’t seem to be heavily focused on flipping this chamber, so it’s reasonable to expect Democrats to retain trifecta control here.
- Florida Senate (16D/22R/2 vacancies): Democrats are defending fewer seats here relative to Republicans (Florida Senate elections are staggered), and they won the recruiting game, too. If Democrats don’t flip this chamber on Nov. 6, watch for them to take it in 2020. But if Democrats flip the Senate on Nov. 6 and Andrew Gillum wins the gubernatorial race, team blue will achieve a level of power in the Sunshine State they’ve haven’t enjoyed in quite some time.
- Iowa House (41D/58R): A bunch of GOP retirements and a truckload (25!) of uncontested Democratic seats have helped put this chamber in play. Democratic fundraising and ground game are reportedly strong here, and Republicans have two years of crappy unified governance (gutting unions, nearly banning abortion, cutting taxes to Kansas-like levels) to defend. The governor’s race is polling as a nailbiter, and the state Senate map this cycle is pretty unfriendly to Democrats (half of the chamber is up every two years); flipping the House would rob the Republicans of trifecta control.
- Maine Senate (17D/18R): Both parties want control of this chamber quite badly, especially as Democrat Janet Mills has led in (limited) polling in the race for governor and Democrats are generally expected to retain their majority in the state House. Neither party is leaving a single seat uncontested, but a spate of retirements and term limits coming due means that Republicans are defending 10 open seats. Democrats have a solid shot at winning trifecta control of the Pine Tree State.
- Michigan House (46D/63R/1vacancy): An uphill climb for sure, but term limits have forced a lot of incumbent Republicans out, resulting in a slew of open seats. Additionally, according to the guy who drew Michigan’s gerrymandered legislative maps, the GOP’s House majority is dependent on the Republicans at the top of the ticket winning 47 percent of the vote statewide—something current polls indicate Team Red may struggle to do.
- Minnesota Senate* (33D/33R/1 vacancy): Minnesota’s Senate isn’t actually up in 2018, but with the chamber tied and a special election being held for the vacant seat on Nov. 6, it’s absolutely in play. Senate District 13 has been in Republican hands since its creation in the last round of redistricting, and it went for Trump 64-30. Republicans in the state are acting as though they’re worried they’ll lose this reliably red seat, and outside spending in the race has been high on both sides. As of the most recent campaign finance report in late October, Democrat Joe Perske was outraising and outspending his Republican opponent.
- Minnesota House (56D/77R/1 vacancy): Local and national operatives with respected track records are almost hilariously bullish on Democratic prospects here, and Democrats at every other level of the ballot are polling quite strongly. There’s no reason to think this enthusiasm won’t translate down-ballot. Depending on the outcome of the state Senate special election, Democrats could end up with trifecta control of the state.
- New Hampshire Senate (10D/14R): Three seats might not sound like a lot, but in a chamber this small, it’s tough (as Democrats learned when they sought but failed to flip it in 2016). Don’t be shocked if the Democrats win the New Hampshire House and this chamber stays in Republican hands.
- New Hampshire House (167D/212R/2 other/19 vacant): This chamber is prone to wild swings in partisan composition each cycle, and Democrats have a leg up here in terms of recruitment and open seats. It’s reasonable to expect that Democrats break the existing GOP trifecta in the state on Nov. 6.
- New York Senate (32D/31R; effective Republican control): The now-disbanded Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) allowed Republicans to control this chamber for the past seven years, even when they lacked a numeric majority. Six of the eight members of this cabal lost their primaries to bona fide progressives in September, making the IDC’s resurgence extremely unlikely. One turncoat Democrat currently caucuses with the GOP, but a pickup of just one seat will not only give Democrats outright majority control of this chamber, it’ll also give Democrats trifecta control of the state.
- Wisconsin Senate (15D/18R): Again, flipping two seats looks easy on paper—until you see the GOP’s gerrymandered map. But Democrats are running strong challengers in two key districts, so don’t write this one off. Flipping the Assembly is a much longer shot, but depending on the outcome of the gubernatorial race, it’s entirely possible that Democrats not only break this GOP trifecta, but that they also end up with control of two of the three levers of state government.
There you have it! Be sure to join us at Daily Kos Elections starting at 6 PM ET on Tuesday night for our liveblog of all of the key races in the 2018 midterms.