Daily Kos Elections' project to calculate the results of the 2018 Senate and gubernatorial elections by congressional district is now on Wisconsin. As with past cycles, we'll be releasing data after states certify their final results. You can find each state's certification deadlines at Ballotpedia. You can find our master list of states here; we'll be updating it as we add new states. You can also find our complete set of data from this and previous cycles at Daily Kos.
Last month, Democrat Tony Evers unseated GOP Gov. Scott Walker 49.6-48.5, while Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin won a second term by beating Republican Leah Vukmir 56-42. However, GOP mapmakers drew the state's congressional lines at the start of the decade to lock in the GOP's five-to-three edge, and the map did its job. While Baldwin won decisively, she and Evers still carried only the three Democratic-held House seats.
The one bit of good news in that is that Democratic Rep. Ron Kind's seat backed both Baldwin and Evers after swinging from 55-44 Obama to 49-45 Trump two years ago. Baldwin won this seat in the state's southwest 56-44, while Evers took it 50-48. Kind turned back an underfunded GOP challenger 60-40. Both Evers and Baldwin easily carried the safely blue 2nd and 4th as well.
The closest Baldwin came to winning one of the five GOP-held seats was her 50.3-49.7 defeat in the 1st District in the southern part of the state, which was being vacated by none other than Speaker Paul Ryan. However, Evers lost it by a larger 54-44 margin, while Republican Bryan Steil fended off Democrat Randy Bryce 55-42. This seat moved from 52-47 Romney to 55-42 Trump.
Baldwin also came relatively close to winning three other GOP-held seats. Vukmir won the 6th District north of Milwaukee 52.5-47.5, though Walker took it by a wide 57-41. GOP Rep. Glenn Grothman turned back a well-funded challenge from Democrat Dan Kohl 55-44. Over in the 7th District in the rural northwest corner of the state, Vukmir and Walker won 52-48 and 57-41, respectively. It was a similar story in the 8th District in the Green Bay area, where Vukmir won 51.5-49.5 and Walker prevailed 57-42. The 7th District moved from 51-48 Romney to 58-37 Trump, while the 8th went from 51-48 Romney to a similar 56-39 Trump; neither GOP Reps. Sean Duffy nor Mike Gallagher faced serious opposition this year.
Finally, the GOP's best seat was the 5th District, which favored Vukmir 57-43 and Walker 61-37. This suburban Milwaukee seat went from 61-38 Romney to 57-37 Trump, and GOP Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner has never fallen below 60 percent of the vote going back to his first House race in 1978.