Morning Digest: Here's a look at George HW Bush's campaigns for Congress, long before his presidency

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● Deaths: Former President George H.W. Bush died at the age of 94 on Friday, but as is our wont at Daily Kos Elections, we'll devote ourselves to taking stock of his early political career, which featured two unsuccessful Senate bids that bookended a brief tenure in the House in the 1960s.

Bush was the son of wealthy Connecticut Sen. Prescott Bush, a progressive Republican who notably spoke out against fellow Sen. Joe McCarthy's anti-communist witch hunt. After serving in World War II as a combat pilot, the younger Bush relocated to West Texas and got a job with a family friend in the oil industry. In 1951, Bush co-founded an oil company of his own, and he became wealthy in his own right two years later when it merged with another firm.

In 1963, the same year that his father left the Senate, Bush turned his eye to politics for the first time. Bush, who was now living in Houston, successfully ran to lead the Harris County GOP, saying that local Republicans encouraged him to get in to stop members of the far-right John Birch Society from taking over.

Bush's election as county chair came at a time when Democrats were still in firm control of Texas, but there were already signs that Republicans were gaining strength. In 1961, John Tower won a special election for Vice President Lyndon Johnson's former Senate seat, becoming the first Republican to win a direct election to the Senate in any of the 11 former Confederate states since the passage of the 17th Amendment half a century earlier. The next year, Democrat John Connally only modestly defeated oil executive Jack Cox 54-46 in the race for governor (Connally would switch to the GOP in 1973), while Republicans flipped a House seat in Midland (though they still only held only two of the state's 23 congressional districts at the time).

In late July of 1963, Bush published an op-ed in the Houston Chronicle laying out the party's pitch heading into the next election year, which also gives us a window into the local political state of affairs at this early point in his career. Bush lamented that his party had "the problem of the downtown businessman who thinks Republican, votes Republican, occasionally gives quietly Republican, but for 'political' reasons won't identify as a Republican." To overcome this problem, Bush argued, required electing Republicans to local and statewide office to make rank-and-file voters feel comfortable describing themselves as Republicans.

Bush also defended his county party from what he called attempts by "liberals" to portray them as racists, writing that the GOP's "failure to attract the Negro voter has not been because of a racist philosophy; rather it has been a product of our not having had the organization to tackle all parts of the county."

While Bush turned out to be wrong in his twin predictions that, with Republicans in power, Houston "would become and would remain a great Republican stronghold," and that black voters would be "highly receptive" to the GOP's message, he was right in one regard. Bush correctly foresaw that, while some believed there was no real difference between the two parties, that would change. Bush predicted that conservatives would flock to the GOP as the distinctions between the two parties became starker, writing, "As conservative Democrats in the South seek vainly for the now-extinct party of their ancestors, the ideological lines become much clearer."

However, that time and place was not 1964 Texas. About a month after his op-ed was published, Bush kicked off a Senate bid against Democratic incumbent Ralph Yarborough. Yarborough was a prominent liberal in a conservative state, and Bush had argued in his editorial that his views were so out-of-step with most Texans that "as other candidates philosophically aligned with Sen. Yarborough gain prominence, the Republican party will grow." But whatever chance Bush had to unseat Yarborough faded after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas and former Texas Sen. Lyndon Johnson became president.

Bush didn't give up on his uphill race, though. In the GOP primary runoff, he defeated Cox, who just two years earlier had waged a competitive campaign for governor, 62-38 in the primary runoff. Bush then went after Yarborough, who was the only senator from the former Confederacy to vote for the 1964 Civil Rights Act. While Bush had led a fundraiser for the Negro College Fund while in college and had written just the year before about the importance of winning over black voters, he vehemently opposed the Civil Rights Act on the campaign trail.

Bush berated the law as "politically inspired," terming it "bad legislation in that it transcends the Constitution." He went on to attack Walter Reuther, the powerful leader of the United Auto Workers, for having "donated $50 to the militant Dr. Martin Luther King Jr." Bush also warned voters about "socialistic" Medicare, which would end up being passed the next year.

Bush may have accurately forecast where his party's fortunes would eventually lead in Texas, but he ended up losing to Yarborough 56-44. The future president did run far ahead of GOP presidential nominee Barry Goldwater, who lost Texas to Johnson (himself an old intra-party adversary of Yarborough), by a wide 63-37 margin; Texas Republicans also lost their only two House seats that year. After his defeat, Bush told his minister, "I took some of the far-right positions to get elected. I hope I never do it again. I regret it."

Bush got the chance to run a different campaign two years later in 1966 after he was the lead plaintiff in a successful lawsuit that forced Texas to redraw its congressional map in the wake of the Supreme Court's revolutionary "one person, one vote" decisions that invalidated unequal-population districts around the country. Texas Democrats had deprived Republican-leaning urban and suburban areas like Houston's Harris County of equal representation, and when the court ruling forced a redrawn map that gave the county a third seat, Bush sought a newly drawn affluent suburban district on its west side.

Bush was true to his word to his minister and pitched himself as a moderate, saying of Johnson's legislative program, "I generally favor the goals as outlined in the Great Society." By contrast, Democrats fielded Harris County District Attorney Frank Briscoe, whom the Texas Observer described at the time as "one of the most vicious prosecutors in Houston's history."

1966 was a very different year for Texas Republicans than 1964 had been. Tower decisively won re-election to the Senate, and he even carried Harris County with 60 percent of the vote. At the same time, Bush beat Briscoe 57-43 and became Houston's first Republican member of Congress since Reconstruction. Republicans would continue to represent much of this area until 2018, when Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher flipped the contemporary version of Texas' 7th.

Still, Bush wasn't fully satisfied despite his wide win. In his 1987 autobiography, which Bush wrote as vice president ahead of his successful presidential bid, he said of his campaign that it was "both puzzling and disappointing" he'd attracted so few black voters. In this retelling, Bush recounted all the outreach he'd done to African-Americans as Harris County party chair, but he never acknowledged his vehement opposition to the Civil Rights Act during his Senate race just two years earlier.

Bush very quickly gained influence in D.C. when he was appointed to the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, a very rare honor for a freshman. Despite his old opposition to the Civil Rights Act, he backed the 1968 Fair Housing Act that outlawed racial discrimination in housing. While Bush later wrote that this vote stirred up conservative opposition back home, he was re-elected without any opposition.

In 1970, President Richard Nixon, who had considered Bush as a possible running mate, persuaded him to give up his House seat and seek a rematch with Yarborough. This time, Bush's Senate prospects seemed far better. Yarborough had alienated more conservatives through his continued support for civil rights and opposition to the Vietnam War, as well as his votes against Nixon's conservative Supreme Court nominees and allowing prayer in school.

However, someone else defeated Yarborough before Bush got the chance to face him. Wealthy former Rep. Lloyd Bentsen ran to Yarborough's right in the Democratic primary and aired TV ads portraying his rival as an ally of violent anti-war protestors. Bentsen beat Yarborough 54-46, and suddenly, Bush didn't have the opponent he'd expected.

In the general election, both candidates adopted many similar conservative stances, including support for Nixon's Vietnam policies. In what was still a conservative Democratic state, Bentsen managed to both run against the "Washington Republican establishment" while at the same time attacking Bush for not being conservative enough when it came to gun laws and welfare policies. Meanwhile, prominent economist John Kenneth Galbraith encouraged his fellow liberals to back Bush, arguing that, while both candidates were equally conservative, a Bentsen win would "tighten the hold of conservatives on the Texas Democratic Party, force the rest of us to contend with them nationally and leave the state with the worst of all choices—a choice between two conservative parties."

Bush, by contrast, ran ads arguing "I can do more for Texas" because of his access to the Nixon administration. However, this strategy may have done him more harm than good. Bentsen portrayed Bush as a Nixon lackey, declaring, "The president of the United States didn't put me in this race. I'm not in the position of Mr. Bush. When the president says jump, he says frog." Bentsen also ran ads arguing that the Nixon administration was threatening to close military bases in San Antonio. Additionally, Bush also was hurt by the perception that the administration's oil policies would hurt Texas' economy, while a school desegregation lawsuit filed by Nixon's Justice Department in East Texas during the campaign further alienated the conservative voters that Bush needed.

At the same time, while many angry Yarborough supporters had threatened to vote for Bush or stay home, Nixon and Vice President Spiro Agnew's visits to the state on the GOP nominee's behalf may have encouraged them to support Bentsen to spite the White House. While a poll a month before Election Day gave Bush a 2-point lead, Bentsen ended up beating him 53.5-46.5, a defeat that stunned the Republican candidate.

In his concession speech, Bush declared, "Like Custer, who said there were too many Indians, I guess there were too many Democrats." Candidly, he concluded, "I have this horrible problem in figuring this thing out. I can't think of anyone to blame except myself." However, Bush would eventually get the last laugh 18 years later when he'd be elected president by defeating Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis and his running mate, none other than Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen.

While Bush never again served in Congress, he didn't stay out of the political arena for long. The Nixon administration offered Bush a White House job, but Bush insisted on being nominated ambassador to the United Nations, to which Nixon agreed. The nomination of a two-term congressman with little diplomatic experience was controversial, but Bush was confirmed early in 1971. Bush went on to lead the Republican National Committee, act as the unofficial ambassador to China as relations between the two nations were thawing in the 1970s, run the CIA, serve as Ronald Reagan's vice president, and ultimately, occupy the White House himself.

Senate

● GA-Sen: Democrat Stacey Abrams gave her first public speech since narrowly losing last month's election for governor, and she strongly implied that she's thinking about running for either Senate in 2020 or a rematch with Republican Gov.-elect Brian Kemp in 2022, saying:

"I am moving forward knowing what is in my past. I know the obstacles they have for me. I'm fairly certain they're energizing and creating new obstacles now. ... They've got four years to figure it out. Maybe two."

Abrams had previously said she was open to running for office again someday, but she had been careful not to reveal any specifics about any particular race she's actively considering.

Given how Abrams came the closest to winning of any Democrat for governor, Senate, or president in nearly two decades, it's unsurprising that the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that many other Democrats are waiting to see what she does before making their 2020 plans, but they named a few others who could run if Abrams stays out. Outgoing Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson has been considering a bid for some time and reiterated her interest, with the AJC reporting that she's near the top of the list if Abrams doesn't run.

The newspaper also named prominent voting rights advocate Raphael Warnock, a Baptist pastor, as a potential candidate, and Warnock didn't rule out a run as he decried Republicans for responding to Georgia's changing demographics by engaging in "rabid" voter suppression. They also spoke to 2017 6th District special election nominee Jon Ossoff, who didn't rule out a campaign but said he'd "like to see Stacey challenge Perdue." Finally, they floated state Rep. Scott Holcomb's name, although it's unclear if he's interested in running at all.

● MS-Sen: Despite recently filing paperwork to run again for the full term in 2020, Democrat Mike Espy still hasn't formally announced whether he'll run or not. Indeed, a top strategist with Espy's 2018 campaign said his boss "was encouraged by the results on Tuesday. [Espy] believes there is a movement afoot and that Mississippi has a brighter future."

● NH-Sen: Business executive Jay Lucas is the latest Republican to surface as a potential challenger to Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in 2020, saying that people are "reaching out" to him to get back into electoral politics after serving in the state House four decades ago, but Lucas said wasn't "looking at it right now" yet wouldn't "rule it out." Lucas was the Republican nominee against Shaheen all the way back in her 1998 re-election bid for governor and got clobbered 66-31, but he had hosted a fundraiser for GOP Gov. Chris Sununu earlier this year, and his son just got elected to the state House, so he may have some decent connections.

Gubernatorial

● KY-Gov: After narrowly losing the 6th Congressional District race last month, Democrat Amy McGrath's campaign manager says the 2018 candidate is "taking her time and reviewing all of her options" with regard to a 2019 gubernatorial campaign against Republican Gov. Matt Bevin. However, if she does run next year, McGrath may face a serious challenge to her eligibility, since unlike the Constitution's requirement that House candidates simply reside in their respective state, the state constitution requires candidates for governor to have resided in Kentucky for at least the last six years.

McGrath had served two decades in the Marines, first as combat pilot and then in Annapolis, Maryland as a Naval Academy political science instructor, until retiring in 2017 shortly before kicking off her House campaign. However, her team argued she had used the ability granted to active-duty military members to designate a state of residence during her service, which since 2013 was Kentucky. While legal experts have said that's generally allowed, it's unlikely to stop her rivals from trying to challenge her eligibility to run and insinuate that she's a carpetbagger, as some did in 2018.

● LA-Gov: On Monday, in a major surprise, Republican Sen. John Kennedy announced that he would not challenge Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards in next year's race for governor of Louisiana.

Kennedy's decision was unexpected because he sounded quite likely to run in October and had even released a pair of polls this year showing him decisively beating Edwards in a head-to-head race. However, a recent poll from local pollster Bernie Pinsonat gave the senator a much smaller 49-45 edge, an indication that a 2019 race might not have been a slam dunk even in this conservative state.

Kennedy, who was elected to his Senate seat two years ago on his third try, might also have been telling the truth when he said he loved being in the Senate as he explained why he wasn't running. While he's only a freshman, Kennedy has regularly attracted national attention thanks to his media-friendly quotes, much like John McCain once did. While Kennedy would have been able to keep his Senate seat even if he'd lost a governor's race, his stature in D.C. invariably would have diminished, and a defeat could have even encouraged a strong GOP opponent to challenge him for re-election in 2022.

Still, while the well-known Kennedy was likely the strongest candidate Team Red could have run against Edwards, there are plenty of other Republicans who could run. Wealthy businessman Eddie Rispone in fact already announced his entry in October, and he's pledged to self-fund at least $5 million. Rep. Ralph Abraham, who represents northeast Louisiana, also said last week that he'd decide by Jan. 1, adding, "If we had to make a decision today, then I would say we are certainly leaning that way."

State Treasurer John Schroder, who won his seat in a special election last year, also expressed interest in running right after Kennedy made his announcement, saying he would "talk to people about it, but right now I'm a little bit surprised." State Sen. Sharon Hewitt, a former oil industry executive who represents part of St. Tammany Parish north of New Orleans, also said she was considering back in 2017. While Hewitt doesn't appear to have spoken about her plans since then, she continues to be mentioned in the media as a potential candidate.

Louisiana's 2019 filing deadline isn't until August, so potential candidates have a while to decide what to do, and unlike in just about every other state, it's not uncommon for office-seekers to wait until very late to launch their campaigns. All candidates will face off on a single ballot on Oct. 12, and if no one takes a majority of the vote, there would be a runoff on Nov. 16.

While Edwards is almost certain to be a major GOP target, he's no pushover. Edwards defeated then-Sen. David Vitter in November 2015 in a victory that few people thought was possible even shortly before it happened. As recently as July of that year, former Sen. Mary Landrieu and state Democratic Party Chair Karen Carter Peterson even reportedly asked Edwards to drop out and run for attorney general instead so that he wouldn't prevent a moderate Republican from beating the despised Vitter; Edwards didn't take their advice, and he ended up beating Vitter 56-44.

Edwards has also been popular during his tenure: A Morning Consult poll from the third quarter of 2018 gave him a 47-34 approval rating, and even Kennedy's October poll from SurveyUSA gave Edwards a 53-39 favorable score. Kennedy also seemed to agree Edwards would be a formidable opponent. Just last week, he told CNN, "I think based on the extensive polling that I've done and I've seen there are only two people who can beat him: one is Scalise and one is me," referring to Rep. Steve Scalise, who will be the second-ranking Republican in the House come January. Well, Scalise isn't running, and now, neither is Kennedy.

● MS-Gov: Mississippi Today reported on Friday that GOP state Rep. Robert Foster, a freshman with quite a haircut, told a number of high-profile Republican officials and potential donors that he was planning to run for governor next year. Over the weekend, Foster posted a Facebook video that confirmed his interest, though he didn't announce anything.

If Foster runs, he'll likely face a very uphill primary against Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves. Reeves has not announced he's in yet, but he's already amassed a $6 million war chest ahead of his widely anticipated campaign. And while Reeves leads the state Senate (Mississippi is one of the few states that gives their lieutenant governors a good deal of power), Foster has sometimes found himself on the outside looking in. This year, as Reeves, Gov. Phil Bryant, and state House Speaker Philip Gunn huddled together on a lottery proposal, Foster denounced the process as a "circus."

Foster is also known for his social media outbursts. A day before Election Day, Foster tweeted, "Anyone who votes Dem. in 18 is either ignorant or evil." Don't expect him to change his tactics on the campaign trail, either. While Foster said this week that he knows he can be "blunt and even brash with my political speak at times, but I mean no personal harm by it," he then explained he's "not going to silently sit by and let the Radical Left get their way. Whether you realize it yet or not, we are in the political fight of our lives that has been decades in the making."

● WA-Gov: Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee hasn't ruled out seeking a third term in 2020, but he very much seems to be preparing for a different office. The Seattle Times reported over the weekend that back in October, Inslee's team set up a federal political action committee to raise money for a potential presidential bid. Inslee also told The Hill that he'd decide if he'd seek the White House before the state legislative session ends in April, and he doesn't seem to have addressed the possibility that he'd run for re-election instead.

House

● CA-52, San Diego, CA Mayor: Local politicos have speculated for more than a year that Democratic Rep. Scott Peters is interested in giving up his House seat in 2020 to run to succeed termed-out Republican Kevin Faulconer as mayor of San Diego.

Peters doesn't appear to have said anything publicly about his plans, but his top aide told the San Diego Union-Tribune back in August that the congressman always planned to serve in Congress no more than 10 years (he was first elected in 2012), and that 2020 would probably be a good time for another Democrat to run to succeed him in the House. It's always possible that Peters' calculations may have changed now that he'll be the majority for the first time in his career, though.

Peters seat was very swingy turf during the first part of the decade after independent redistricting made it bluer: He unseated GOP incumbent Brian Bilbray 51-49 in 2012 as Barack Obama was carrying his district 52-46, and he hung on 51.6-48.4 during the 2014 GOP wave. However, Team Red didn't make this race a priority two years later, and Peters won 57-43 as Hillary Clinton was taking the seat by an even-larger 58-36 margin. The incumbent prevailed 64-36 this time around, and it looks unlikely that this highly educated suburban area will snap back to the right with Donald Trump in the White House.

Still, there are plenty of other San Diego Democrats reportedly looking at the 2020 mayoral race, and there's no guarantee that Peters would get through a June nonpartisan primary, much less win the big prize in a November general. However, local Democrats are optimistic that this will be the cycle that they finally take control of city hall.

Republicans have won every mayoral race since 1992 except for in 2012, when Bob Filner was elected. Filner resigned less than a year into his tenure after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment, though, and Faulconer won the early 2014 special to succeed him. But San Diego County Democrats had a very strong showing in last month's elections, and 2020 could finally be the year they take and keep the big prize.

● House: There are a lot of incoming Democratic House freshmen, who represent a wide spectrum of districts. David Jarman takes a closer look at which of the three ideological caucuses (Congressional Progressive Caucus, New Democrat Coalition, and Blue Dog Coalition) the new House members have joined. While caucus membership isn't always predictive of actual voting records, it's a handy shorthand for what sort of worldview a member brings, and who their likely intramural allies will be.