CA-50: GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter has insisted time and again that he's seeking re-election even though he's under FBI investigation for allegedly misusing campaign money for personal things, including a $600 flight for his family's pet rabbit. Hunter's bad headlines didn't stop there, and Politico recently reported that "many people close to the congressman" believe the married Hunter had an affair with a lobbyist. Congressional aides also told Politico that in December, Hunter had an angry confrontation with Speaker Paul Ryan, and observers wondered if Hunter was intoxicated; Hunter has denied both accusations. Trump carried this inland San Diego County district 55-40, but some Republicans are worried that if Hunter's the GOP nominee again this year, he could put what should be a safe seat at risk.
Until now, Hunter didn't have a credible intra-party foe, but that changed on Tuesday when El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells entered the June top-two primary. Wells didn't bring up Hunter's legal woes, instead saying he was " not part of that investigation and know only what other members of the public know." It's not clear if state or national Republican power players are backing Wells, though the fact that the most prominent supporter the mayor mentioned was former Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann has us doubting it. Only about 7 percent of this district covers El Cajon (about half the city is in the neighboring 53 District), so it's unclear how much name recognition Wells begins with.
Wells himself attracted some bad headlines this year, but for very different reasons. El Cajon announced in January that it was now illegal to feed homeless people in public squares, a move the city said was done to prevent the spread of hepatitis A. But critics saw the move as dehumanizing, and the international media descended on the city after volunteers were arrested when they protested the ban by staging a food sharing event. Last month, the county lifted the health emergency declaration and the city ended its ban soon afterwards, and Well insists he did the right thing.
But while Wells may or may not be a strong opponent, it's clear that Hunter is in bad shape. The congressman's fundraising has slowed to a crawl, and he's been spending heavily on legal fees. At the end of Dec. 31, Hunter had only $291,000 in the bank. Two noteworthy Democrats are running here: former U.S. Labor Department official Ammar Campa-Najjar and Josh Butner, a veteran and local school board member. At the end of 2017, Campa-Najjar had a small $299,000 to $277,000 cash-on-hand lead over Butner. It would take a lot to flip a seat this red, but unless Hunter's legal situation improves quickly, it's looking like he'd have trouble defending his district if he's the nominee.
California's filing deadline is March 9, so we won't need to wait long to see if Hunter goes through with his pledge to run again. The state requires the filing deadline to be extended to March 14 if there's no incumbent running, so if Hunter does bail at the last minute, other local Republicans will have a little time to decide what to do.