The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● PA Redistricting: On Monday, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court released the state’s new congressional map, which replaces the GOP’s now-invalid gerrymander and will be used for the rest of the decade. Political scientist Brian Amos has calculated preliminary 2016 presidential results for the new districts, though comparing them to the old districts isn’t necessarily straightforward.
That’s because the court’s new lines not only juggled the state’s congressional districts, it renumbered them as well. In the coming days, we’ll learn more about where incumbents who were planning to seek re-election will in fact run this fall, but for now, we’ve linked each new district with the old district that makes up a plurality of each new district.
| new district |
clinton |
Trump |
PLURALITY OLD DISTRICT |
Clinton |
Trump |
| PA-01 |
49.1 |
47.1 |
PA-08: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) |
48.0 |
48.2 |
| PA-02 |
72.9 |
24.9 |
PA-13: Brendan Boyle (D) |
65.3 |
31.7 |
| PA-03 |
90.9 |
7.0 |
PA-02: Dwight Evans (D) |
90.4 |
7.6 |
| PA-04 |
57.9 |
38.5 |
PA-13: Brendan Boyle (D) |
65.3 |
31.7 |
| PA-05 |
62.6 |
34.4 |
PA-07: Pat Meehan (R) |
49.3 |
47.0 |
| PA-06 |
52.6 |
43.3 |
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R) |
48.2 |
47.6 |
| PA-07 |
48.7 |
47.6 |
PA-15: Charlie Dent (R) |
44.2 |
51.8 |
| PA-08 |
43.7 |
53.2 |
PA-17: Matt Cartwright (D) |
43.3 |
53.4 |
| PA-09 |
31.0 |
65.0 |
PA-17: Matt Cartwright (D) |
43.3 |
53.4 |
| PA-10 |
43.4 |
52.3 |
PA-04: Scott Perry (R) |
37.1 |
58.6 |
| PA-11 |
34.7 |
60.5 |
PA-16: Lloyd Smucker (R) |
44.2 |
51.0 |
| PA-12 |
29.8 |
66.3 |
PA-10: Tom Marino (R) |
30.1 |
66.1 |
| PA-13 |
25.5 |
71.0 |
PA-09: Bill Shuster (R) |
27.2 |
69.7 |
| PA-14 |
33.9 |
62.9 |
PA-18: VACANT (R) |
38.5 |
58.1 |
| PA-15 |
26.6 |
70.0 |
PA-05: Glenn Thompson (R) |
33.5 |
62.3 |
| PA-16 |
38.0 |
57.9 |
PA-03: Mike Kelly (R) |
35.0 |
61.1 |
| PA-17 |
46.7 |
49.2 |
PA-12: Keith Rothfus (R) |
37.9 |
58.7 |
| PA-18 |
61.7 |
34.9 |
PA-14: Mike Doyle (D) |
66.0 |
30.5 |
Let’s start with the big number: Donald Trump won 10 seats under the new lines, compared to eight for Hillary Clinton. Given that Trump only carried the Keystone State by a 48.2 to 47.5 margin in 2016, that’s a much more equitable distribution than the 12 Trump and six Clinton seats under the old map.
And based on our best guesses as to which incumbents will run where, Democratic chances would likely improve against Republicans in PA-01 (Mike Fitzpatrick, old PA-08), PA-05 (OPEN/Pat Meehan, old PA-07), PA-06 (Ryan Costello, old PA-06), PA-07 (OPEN/Charlie Dent, old PA-15), PA-10 (Scott Perry, old PA-04), PA-17 (Keith Rothfus, old PA-12). However, PA-11 (Lloyd Smucker, old PA-16) has gone from light red to implacably Republican.
There’s a lot to keep straight, though! For starters, you’ll want to keep our brand-new interactive map handy. We've also put together a table showing what portions of Pennsylvania's 2012-2016 congressional districts make up each new seat. (Click here for an explainer on how to interpret this spreadsheet.) This data forms the basis for which old district forms a plurality of each new district in the table above.
Campaign Action
Note, though, that two old districts are not represented in that chart. One of them, PA-11, belongs to Republican Rep. Lou Barletta’s and was pretty much dismantled. A plurality (31 percent) of the old PA-11 is in the new PA-10, but because 59 percent of the new PA-10 is made up of Republican Rep. Scott Perry’s old PA-04, we list that seat next to the new PA-10. Barletta is running for the Senate, though, and won’t care, but other incumbents will face serious disruption.
That’s because no matter what district they now choose to call home, they’ll face electorates that are largely new to them. For instance, only half of Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle’s old PA-13 is in the new PA-02, while about 40 percent of retiring Democratic Rep. Bob Brady’s old PA-01 wound up there. (Incidentally, Brady’s old PA-01 is the other old district that doesn’t appear in the table above.)
The devil, though, is often in the county-level details, and to get a sense for how that will play, we’ve put together an updated list of how much of each county makes up each new seat, and how much of each county is contained in each new seat. For instance, Boyle’s Philadelphia made up just about half of the old PA-13, while it makes up all of the new 2nd District, so it makes sense for him to run there.
So, what happens now? The most immediate item on the calendar is the state’s March 20 filing deadline for House candidates (candidates for every other office in Pennsylvania must file by March 6), though they’ll need to start collecting ballot petitions well before then. Consequently, anyone who wants to run for the House this year needs to decide pretty quickly where they’ll run. The primary will be held on May 15 for all offices.
We should note that that Republicans in the legislature are once again going to federal court to try to block the new map, even though the U.S. Supreme Court refused to intervene on their behalf earlier this month. As election law expert Rick Hasen notes, their odds of prevailing are very long, so this map in all likelihood is here to stay.
And on a note that is both highly symbolic and deeply important, this new map means that there are now 25 Republican-held House seats nationally that Hillary Clinton carried, up from 23. That’s one more than the number of Republican seats Democrats would need to flip in order to regain control over the House in November.
Senate
● MS-Sen: Earlier this month, The Washington Post reported that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell asked Gov. Phil Bryant to consider appointing himself to the Senate if incumbent Thad Cochran, who has been in poor health, doesn't complete his term. Sources close to Bryant soon told The Clarion Ledger that Bryant was not interested in going to D.C., but GOP leaders haven't given up trying to persuade him. The New York Times' Jonathan Martin reports that last week, Trump himself "buttonholed" Bryant while the governor was visiting the White House to try to convince him to appoint himself to an open seat. There's no indication that Bryant is reconsidering.
Mississippi is a very red state, but national Republicans are wary about repeating their disaster in Alabama; Martin writes that Trump even cited Roy Moore's disastrous campaign while trying to persuade Bryant. The candidate who worries national Republicans is state Sen. Chris McDaniel, who almost beat Cochran in 2014. Even if McDaniel isn't awful enough to cost the GOP the seat, he'd be a very difficult vote for McConnell to corral in the Senate. However, voters tend to react very badly when a governor appoints himself to the Senate (or rather, when the governor resigns and has his elevated lieutenant governor appoint him to the Senate), so Trump and McConnell should be careful what they wish for when it comes to Bryant.
Cochran, whose term ends in early 2021, hasn't said much about the race to replace him. Sources close to Cochran told Martin that he won't consider stepping down until Congress finishes its 2018 spending bill next month, though they say he hasn't ruled out resigning this year. Last year, some GOP operatives "in contact with Cochran's office" told Politico that they also expected he'd stick around at least until the spending bill passes.
● TN-Sen: On Friday, former Rep. Stephen Fincher announced he was exiting the August GOP primary, and he said he wanted Sen. Bob Corker to run again. What little polling there was showed Fincher, who retired from a West Tennessee seat last cycle, largely unknown and badly trailing Rep. Marsha Blackburn.
Corker announced back in September that he wouldn't seek a third term, but he's been openly talking about changing his plans over the last week. However, another pro-Blackburn group has a message for Corker: drop dead. Committee to Defend the President is out with a poll from WPA Intelligence giving Blackburn a 55-26 lead over Corker in a hypothetical primary. Last week, the Senate Conservatives Fund also dropped a poll showing Blackburn pasting Corker 49-26. Corker is trying to convince Trump, whom he has feuded with in the past, to back him if he seeks re-election, but White House aides reportedly have also shown Trump polls that have Corker in awful shape.
Corker's allies have been arguing that Blackburn is conservative enough to cost Team Red this seat in the general election against former Gov. Phil Bredesen, but WPA argues the opposite is true. Blackburn leads Bredesen 44-39, which is actually a big improvement for the Democrat from the 43-34 Blackburn edge WPA found in December. However, this survey shows Bredesen beating Corker 44-35.
● WI-Sen: Businessman Kevin Nicholson is running for Senate as a stalwart conservative Republican, but his past as a Democrat keeps coming back to haunt him. Nicholson spoke at the 2000 Democratic National Convention in support of Al Gore while serving as as the president of the College Democrats of America, but he claims he left the party shortly thereafter. However, records keep coming to light that indicate his supposedly Reagan-esque conversion didn't happen until much more recently. Indeed, a new report found Nicholson had registered as an independent instead of a Republican while he was living in Massachusetts in 2010.
This isn't even the first or second such instance of Nicholson's claims running contrary to fact. Nicholson initially asserted he left the Democratic Party in the early 2000s, then began claiming he was definitely a Republican by 2007 and supported John McCain. But records conclusively show he voted in the 2008 Democratic primary while stationed in North Carolina when he served in the Marines. And before that he had to concede that in 2002 he was indeed paid for work he did for the Minnesota Democratic Party.
Nicholson claimed he voted "no preference" in the 2008 primary because he didn't have time to change his party registration (And yet North Carolina allows same-day registration during early voting). But records show even that wasn't true since the only "no preference" ballot cast in his precinct was from an early voter, while Nicholson voted on Election Day.
Nicholson appears to have become a staunch enough conservative to have previously secured the backing of the anti-tax Club for Growth, but his support from that anti-establishment hardline group may not be enough to prove his bona fides to primary voters. Indeed, state Sen. Leah Vukmir has already attacked Nicholson over these inconsistencies, and her primary campaign may end up gaining traction with the issue.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: This week, businessman Noel Ginsburg announced that, in addition to trying to collect enough signatures to make it to the June Democratic primary ballot, he would also try to win enough support at the April state convention to advance to June. Rep. Jared Polis is also trying both methods, while former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy is staking her campaign on a good showing at the convention (also known as the party assembly); so far, Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne and former state Sen. Mike Johnston are only collecting signatures.
Gathering signatures is a very expensive and time-consuming task. Because 1,500 valid signatures are needed from each of Colorado's seven congressional districts, Democrats are often fighting for the relatively few Democrats in conservative seats. (If a voter signs a petition for multiple candidates, it only counts in favor of the candidate who turned in their signatures first.) Candidates at the assembly need to win the support of at least 30 percent of the delegates to advance to the primary. However, if Ginsburg or Polis fail to win at least 10 percent of the delegates, they can't make it to the primary no matter how many signatures they have.
● TN-Gov: On behalf of businessman and former state Higher Education Commissioner Bill Lee, North Star Opinion Research is out with a look at the August GOP primary. They give former state cabinet official Randy Boyd a 25-22 lead over Rep. Diane Black, while Lee is in third with 18 percent, and state House Speaker Beth Harwell languishes in last with just 4.
So, why is Lee releasing a poll that shows him only in third place? The memo argues that Lee has plenty of room to grow because he starts out with considerably less name recognition than his rivals. While Black is known to 73 percent of primary voters and Boyd and Harwell are known to 59 and 53 percent of voters, respectively, Lee is at just 43 percent name recognition. All four candidates are well funded and have already done some significant self-funding.
● TX-Gov: The University of Texas and the Texas Tribune are out with a poll of the March 6 Democratic primary to face GOP Gov. Greg Abbott. While former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez has struggled with fundraising (and only announced she had hired a campaign manager on Monday, two weeks from primary day), she leads businessman Andrew White 43-24.
House
● FL-05: Former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown is already out with his first ad in his Democratic primary challenge against Rep. Al Lawson in this north Florida seat. The ad starts off with text from a Tampa Bay Times headline stating "Donald Trump's New Favorite Democrat: Congressman Al Lawson." It then features footage of Lawson being the only Democrat to clap during sections of Trump's State of the Union speech, while audio plays of Trump praising Lawson for clapping, with Trump saying, "I'm gonna send him a letter of thank you ... because he was the only one!" The spot then pivots to show images of white-supremacist protesters in Charlottesville with audio of Trump's infamous quote of "very fine people on both sides," and the ad closes by asking "clapping for a guy who said this about racists?"
● FL-17: On Monday, GOP Rep. Tom Rooney announced he would not seek a sixth term. This seat went from 58-41 Romney to 62-35 Trump, and the winner of the late August GOP primary should have little trouble in the general. About half of this district is concentrated along the Gulf Coast around Venice and Port Charlotte, while the balance is located further inland. The candidate filing deadline is in early May.
Rooney is the grandson of Art Rooney, the former owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the son of Dan Rooney, who later went on be the team's chairman. While Dan Rooney backed Barack Obama in 2008 and later became his ambassador to Ireland, Tom Rooney picked that year to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney in what was then the 16th District around Port St. Lucie. Mahoney had won a Republican seat in 2006 after incumbent Mark Foley dropped out and resigned after the news broke that he'd sent inappropriate messages to underage congressional pages. The GOP picked then-state Rep. Joe Negron to be their nominee, but Foley's name remained on the ballot. Negron (who now leads the state Senate) urged voters to "punch Foley for Joe," and it almost worked, but Mahoney won 50-48.
Mahoney quickly adopted a conservative voting record, but it was clear he'd be a top target even in what was shaping up to be a good year for the Democrats. Rooney pulled off a tight 37-35 win in the primary, and initially, even a GOP poll showed Mahoney ahead. But in October, news broke that Mahoney had fired a woman after having an affair with her and paid her $121,000 to keep her from suing him. Mahoney didn't drop out of the race to give voters the chance to punch him for another Democrat, and Rooney won 60-40 as McCain was carrying the seat 52-47.
Democrats wanted to target Rooney in 2010, and the party initially touted St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft. However, Craft had trouble raising money and dropped out. The congressman's brother, Brian Rooney, badly lost a GOP primary in Michigan to once-and-future Rep. Tim Walberg that year, but the Florida congressman was safe.
After the GOP legislature redrew the map in 2012, Rooney moved further north to a newly-drawn and considerably safer seat, and he had no problem winning there. Rooney's move did allow notorious GOP Rep. Allan West to escape his own Democratic-leaning seat and run in what could have been Rooney's seat, but West narrowly lost to Democrat Patrick Murphy.
● IL-03: Marie Newman is getting some serious air support in her quest to take down conservative Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinksi in next month's primary. A new super PAC called Citizens for a Better Illinois just reported spending $413,000 on television and digital ads on Newman's behalf, though the spots don't appear to be available as yet. The PAC is aligned with NARAL, which endorsed Newman in November. (The PAC's treasurer is NARAL's CFO.) The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet also adds that other organizations, including labor unions, are expected to contribute additional funding for this effort.
Meanwhile, Lipinski—who the other day dubbed Newman's supporters "the tea party of the left"—is getting a little bit of outside help, too, albeit of a very different sort. A super PAC called United for Progress has spent $38,000 on direct mailers boosting Lipinski, and as Sweet notes, its major benefactors are a trio of wealthy CEOs, including White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf.
● LA-05, LA-Gov: GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham is talking about running for governor next year, but he said Monday he still is far from making a decision. However, Abraham did say he'd seek re-election to the House this year no matter what. Abraham's seat backed Trump 63-34, and it's unlikely to go anywhere.
● MD-06: On Monday, Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett backed state Del. Aruna Miller in the June Democratic primary for this open seat. Montgomery is by far the largest and bluest part of this seat, so Leggett could be a big help for Miller.
Several other Democrats are seeking to succeed Rep. John Delaney, who is leaving to run for president for some reason. Extremely wealthy businessman David Trone spent more than $13 million of his own money in his unsuccessful 2016 primary bid for the neighboring 8th District, and he doesn't seem to be switching up his strategy much. Trone self-funded $1.5 million during the final quarter of 2017, and he spent a massive $941,000 during that time. (Trone also collected $147,000 from donors not named David Trone.) Miller, who has the support of EMILY's List, took in just shy of $300,000 during the final quarter of the year; Trone held a small $787,000 to $752,000 cash-on-hand edge in December, but he's in no danger of being outspent.
The rest of the Democratic field had considerably less cash-on-hand. Nadia Hashimi, a physician and best-selling novelist, raised $112,000 for the quarter and ended with $349,000 in the bank. State Sen. Roger Manno took in only $79,000, but he self-funded another $75,000, leaving him with a $285,000 war chest.
This seat, which stretches from the Washington suburbs into western Maryland, backed Clinton 55-40, and it's likely to stay blue. The main GOP candidate is Amie Hoeber, a former Army Department official who lost to Delaney 56-40 last cycle. Hoeber had only $50,000 in the bank at the end of 2017, not exactly an intimidating sum. But last time, Qualcomm senior executive Mark Epstein (who just happens to be her husband) was the primary donor to a super PAC that spent $3.1 million on her behalf, and he may be able to give her some more air support again.
● MN-08: Over the weekend, state Sen. Tony Lourey announced he wouldn't run in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Rick Nolan.
● ND-AL, ND-Sen: GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer announced last week that he'd run for the Senate, and the race has already begun for his statewide House seat.
State Sen. Tom Campbell, a wealthy potato farmer (not to be confused with the Demon Sheep guy), announced Friday he was switching from the Senate race to the House contest. Campbell has been running ads since September, so he should already have some name recognition ahead of the June GOP primary. However, national Republicans were so wary about having him as their nominee against Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp that they actually allowed the Washington Examiner to publish the opposition research they found on him. According to their memo, "Campbell's bank has foreclosed on North Dakota farmers" and "Campbell was sued for fraud over the life insurance policy he obtained on his mother." Campbell's out of the Senate GOP's hair now, but his foes now know what to look for if they want to attack him.
And Campbell's very unlikely to have the primary to himself. State Sen. Kelly Armstrong, who is the chairman of the state Republican Party, said Friday he was considering running, and unnamed sources tell Rob Port of the conservative blog Say Anything that they expect him to announce he's in sometime this week. The Associated Press' James MacPherson writes that Armstrong is very close to the state's influential oil industry: His father is an oil driller who is pals with Harold Hamm, who runs one of the oldest and largest oil drillers in North Dakota and is very active in state GOP politics.
A few other Republicans have made noises about running, but sound unlikely to. Businessman and former state party chair Gary Emineth ended his brief campaign for the Senate ahead of Cramer's announcement, but while he said last week that he wasn't ruling out a House campaign, sources close to him tell Port that Emineth has decided not to not lose himself to this race. Former Rep. Rick Berg, who narrowly lost the 2012 Senate race to Heitkamp, said Friday he wasn't ruling out a comeback bid for his old seat, but Port writes it's unlikely he'll do it. Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak also said last week she was thinking about running, but called it "unlikely." The filing deadline is April 9.
North Dakota backed Trump by a wide 62-27 margin, and this seat is likely to stay red. Still, Heitkamp's 2012 win shows that ticket splitting isn't dead yet, and Democrats will want to at least field a credible candidate. Former state Rep. Ben Hanson, who narrowly lost re-election in 2016 as Trump was carrying his seat 49-40, has been running for a while; Hanson ended December with $47,000 on-hand. However, unnamed Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former state Sen. Aaron Krauter. Krauter, who was Heitkamp's running mate during her unsuccessful 2000 bid for governor, left the legislature in 2009 to serve as the state director for the Farm Service Agency, a post he held until the end of the Obama administration.
● NY-27: We previously hadn't written about Grand Island Town Supervisor Nathan McMurray, who is running as a Democrat against Republican Rep. Chris Collins in this western New York district, but it's noteworthy that Collins feels threatened enough to issue an attack against McMurray. Grand Island (population: 21,000) is a suburb of Erie that's located just inside the neighboring 26th District, and Collins' campaign released a statement that blasted McMurray for living outside the district he's seeking to represent; McMurray has said he'll move into the 27th District if elected.
This seat is strongly Republican at 60-35 Trump, and it would take a lot to go right for Democrats to pull off an upset here. However, Collins has earned terrible headlines over the past year due to his involvement in a failed investment scheme that landed him in hot water with the House Ethics Committee, and his personal struggles could make him vulnerable in a Democratic wave election.
● SC-01: State Rep. Katie Arrington is hoping that Rep. Mark Sanford's previous apostasies against Trump (to say nothing of the rest of his legendary career) will doom him in the June GOP primary, and she'd already out with her first TV spot. The commercial begins with Arrington telling the audience, "As a new mom and military wife, I worked the night shift at Denny's just to make ends meet," and now has a cyber security business that protects troops. Arrington doesn't mention Sanford by name, but says that "too many Washington politicians only want to attack our president." There is no word on the size of the buy.
So far, donors haven't exactly flocked to Arrington's banner. While Sanford is a meh fundraiser, he outraised her $140,000 to $44,000 during the final quarter of 2017. Arrington self-funded another $110,000, but she trailed Sanford $1.57 million to $206,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of December. But Sanford is notoriously frugal, and there's no guarantee he'll make much use his financial edge. Last cycle, Sanford barely touched his war chest and only beat underfunded state Rep. Jenny Horne 56-44 in the primary.
This coastal seat backed Trump 54-40 and it's unlikely to go anywhere. On the Democratic side, attorney Joe Cunningham took in $114,000 for the quarter, though he had just shy of $100,000 in the bank.
● TX-07: Activist Laura Moser's latest ad in the Democratic primary for this suburban Houston swing district focuses on gun safety. Moser says, "The school shootings have got to stop ... I'm running for Congress because I've had enough." She then features footage of her young son and daughter, while Moser says she shouldn't have to worry it will be the last time she sees them as she gets them ready for school each morning. Moser closes by noting only a small proportion of Congress consists of women who have school-age children, and she asks rhetorically if Congress would still refuse to act if there were more people in office who were mothers with young children.
● TX-16: EMILY's List has just launched its first TV ads of the cycle, boosting former El Paso County Judge Veronica Escobar in next month's Democratic primary for Texas' open 16th Congressional District. There are two spots (here and here), both of which hit the same themes: Escobar is an independent progressive fighter who established the first-ever county ethics commission in the state, has earned praise as a "border hero" on behalf of DREAMers, and will stand up to Trump. (The first is also airing in Spanish.) Both also reference her endorsement by Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who is running for Senate.
The second ad differs in one small but notable way: The narrator accuses Republicans of "trying to smear her record"—without, wisely, mentioning what those smears are. It's a reference, though, to ads being run by a super PAC called Keep El Paso Honest, which Escobar has called a Republican operation. She's not without reason: Carlos Sierra, the consultant running the PAC, worked for John McCain for 10 years, then ran field operations for Republican-turned-Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson in 2016.
Sierra's ad features Escobar trotting along on a goofy animated horse, claiming she raised property taxes and increased her own salary on the county commission. It ends with a rather insulting tagline, saying that Escobar "ain't what she used to be." That, of course, is a reference to the folk song "The Old Gray Mare"—and yes, Escobar's mount is gray.
That same message (minus the rude equine bits) can also be found in a new negative spot from Escobar's main rival for the nomination, former El Paso city school board president Dori Fenenbock, whom Sierra's PAC is supporting. Escobar has published a fact-check pushing back against these ads. In particular, she notes that when she joined the El Paso County Commission as a commissioner, her salary was $50,000. Later, when she was elected El Paso County Judge (a position equivalent to county executive), her pay went up, and she "left office with a salary similar to the $98,000 her male predecessor made in the same role."
● WI-07: Physician Brian Ewert recently entered the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Sean Duffy with little fanfare, but he does have a noteworthy profile. Ewert served as CEO and executive director of the Marshfield Clinic, which has 50 locations across Wisconsin, until he stepped down in 2014. Attorney and Navy veteran Margaret Engebretson and Kyle Frenette, the longtime manager of the indie folk band Bon Iver, are also running in the August primary for this rural northern seat, which went from 51-48 Romney to 58-37 Trump.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Via Johnny Longtorso:
Kentucky HD-49: This is an open Republican seat just south of Louisville. Dan Johnson, the previous incumbent, was facing sexual misconduct allegations and committed suicide. The Democrats have nominated Linda Belcher, who held this seat previously but lost to Johnson 50.4-49.6 in 2016. The Republicans have chosen Johnson's widow, Rebecca Johnson. This seat went 72-23 for Donald Trump in 2016 and 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
Grab Bag
● California: On Friday, the office of California Secretary of State Alex Padilla posted updated voter registration statistics in advance of the state's June 5 primary, and the data shows a continuation of the same bleak trend line for Golden State Republicans that we've written about in prior cycles: The GOP is simply hemorrhaging voters, both in raw numbers and as a percentage of registered voters. We took a deep dive into the numbers here, analyzing both the statewide trends and in changes in selected congressional districts that Democrats are hoping to paint blue this November.
