The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● PA Redistricting: Thanks to Pennsylvania's brand spanking new congressional map, the Keystone State's political scene has just undergone a total reset. To help make sense of it all, Daily Kos Elections has calculated a bunch of new data and also compiled some resources from other sources:
Below we’ll take a look at each individual district, so dive on in!
Senate
● MS-Sen, MS-Gov: Back in December, Mason-Dixon released a poll giving Sen. Roger Wicker a 49-33 lead over state Sen. Chris McDaniel in a hypothetical June GOP primary. That was a decent, though not incredible, showing for the incumbent, but GOP firm JMC Analytics argues Wicker's in a bit more trouble.
Their survey finds Wicker leading McDaniel 38-20, a similar margin to Mason-Dixon, but with Wicker a whole lot further from a majority. Primary voters give Wicker a 43-22 favorable score, which isn't great, but not horrifying. But they find that McDaniel, who very narrowly lost the 2014 primary to Sen. Thad Cochran, has largely been forgotten with a 28-23 score. JMC also tests Wicker against Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, who has shown no interest in challenging him, and gives Wicker a similar 38-15 lead. Mississippi's candidate filing deadline is March 1, so we'll know what's up here soon.
JMC also takes a very early look at next year's GOP primary for governor. They give Reeves, who is almost assured to run, a 21-12 lead over state Treasurer Lynn Fitch.
● TN-Sen: NBC's Vaughn Hillyard reports that GOP Sen. Bob Corker will announce "before Friday" whether he will seek a third term after all. However, two groups backing Rep. Marsha Blackburn in the August primary released polls last week showing her clobbering Corker, and a third one joined in the fun this week. Ragnar Research Partners, which has taken a break from fighting the Cylons, is out with a poll for American Future Fund Political Action that shows Corker utterly and completely fraked with a 48-29 deficit against Blackburn. If Corker's allies have better numbers, they sure aren't in a hurry to release them.
● UT-Sen: The love/hate relationship between Mitt Romney and Donald Trump moved back into love mode when Trump endorsed the man he had labeled "one of the dumbest and worst candidates in the history of Republican politics" and a "dope!" just two years ago. Romney, who tweeted around that same time, "If Trump had said 4 years the things he says today about the KKK, Muslims, Mexicans, disabled, I would NOT have accepted his endorsement," accepted his endorsement on Monday.
● WV-Sen: Let's say you're a coal baron who was sentenced to a year in prison in 2016 for violating federal mine safety laws in connection to an explosion killed 29 miners, and you've decided to run for the Senate in the state where that disaster happened. Let's also say that just after you were sentenced, someone released a poll saying that you're the most hated person in the state you want to represent in the Senate. Do you … run a commercial about how you're so great for mine safety? If you're Don Blankenship, you sure do.
The commercial stars Chad Neil, whom the on-screen text identifies as a "veteran coal miner." Neil argues that it was the Obama administration that falsely blamed the miners in the Upper Big Branch Mine for the disaster. Neil insists he knows what happened "because I worked there the shift before the explosion." He then says that Blankenship was right and the Mine Safety and Health Administration (which is only identified by its acronym MSHA in the ad) should apologize to the miner's families and can't investigate itself anymore. Neil concludes that Blankenship will "make miners safe."
Blankenship faces Rep. Evan Jenkins and Attorney General Patrick Morrissey in the May GOP primary to face Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. While national Republicans haven't taken sides here, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell recently told the New York Times he didn't want Blankenship as the nominee. We can't fathom why.
Gubernatorial
● GA-Gov: An issues advocacy group called Citizens for Georgia's Future (which just happens to have a veteran state GOP operative as its spokesperson) is putting $1.2 million behind a pair of "issues" commercials praising Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, who is the frontrunner in the May GOP primary. Because the group is set up as a tax-exempt social welfare organization, it doesn't need to disclose its donors.
One bright happy ad praises Cagle for "working to create Georgia College and Career Academies." The other spot declares that Cagle "is fighting to outlaw sanctuary cities, and working to cut off all state funding to those cities until they cooperate with the immigration laws on the books." Since both commercials can't legally end by telling people to vote for Cagle, they ask the viewer to tell the lieutenant governor to keep doing the stuff they're extolling him for doing.
● IL-Gov: With a month to go before the March 20 Democratic primary, businessman Chris Kennedy is up with a spot that begins with footage of his father, Robert F. Kennedy, as the candidate declares he comes from a family "that has embraced the notion that we're all in this together. Kennedy then argues the state needs change, and education needs to be paid for by the state "not through local property taxes," and he declares that "compromise is not surrender."
On the GOP side, Gov. Bruce Rauner once again trains his fire on Democratic state House Speaker Mike Madigan, and argues that the state can't afford the taxes he wants. State Rep. Jeanne Ives also focuses on taxes in her ad, though she argues she's the one who has fought Madigan. Ives' other ad goes back to the anti-immigrant well and features a man named Eric Brady who tells the audience that his wife was "killed by an illegal who was driving drunk," and says there was no justice for her because the driver wasn't "taken into custody." Brady then says the state has let people like him down, and Rauner isn't leading. The commercial ends with text declaring, "Governor Bruce Rauner stands with illegal aliens. Jeanne Ives stands with you."
● MN-Gov: Republican Tim Pawlenty's decision earlier this month to step down as head of the large lobbying group Financial Services Roundtable was a pretty big tell that he planned to try and regain his old office. Pawlenty said Tuesday that he "should have some further announcements and decisions about all of that in the coming weeks," though he insisted he was still deciding, and he added that Minnesota "does tend towards the blue side of things and I'm a Republican, and so that's an uphill climb for any Republican candidate who might choose to run in a statewide race."
● VT-Gov: Vermont Electric Cooperative CEO Christine Hallquist said she intends to resign her position on Tuesday to seek the Democratic nomination against Republican Gov. Phil Scott. Although she stopped just short of declaring her candidacy, Hallquist stated she has been "organizing a campaign team" but didn't plan to formally announce for several more weeks.
Hallquist doesn't appear to have run for public office before, but Democrats have no other notable candidates in the race. However, the state party's executive director previously said he would be "extremely excited" about the prospect of Hallquist running and becoming the first transgender statewide-elected official in the country if she wins. Nevertheless, the relatively moderate Scott will likely be tough to beat.
● WY-Gov: State Treasurer Mark Gordon is arguably the frontrunner in this August's GOP primary to succeed termed-out Gov. Matt Mead, but he hasn't entered the race just yet. However, Gordon said on Monday that he "fully intend[s] to" run, and would make a formal announcement after his office has done some projects he said he doesn't want to become politicized.
House
● CA-21: One of the biggest recruitment holes left for House Democrats is in California's 21st Congressional District, a seat that Hillary Clinton won 55-40 but which GOP Rep. David Valadao has stubbornly clung to for years. That's due in part to generally lower levels of Latino turnout in this relatively low-income, agriculture-heavy region of California's Central Valley, but it also has a lot to do with the fact that the Democrats' candidate last cycle, attorney Emilio Huerta, ran a very weak campaign and got crushed by a 57-43 margin.
Unfortunately, Huerta is running again, and if anything, his operation is even weaker this time. Despite launching his bid for a rematch at the end of May, Huerta raised just $95,000 for all of 2017, an unacceptable sum for a congressional race. What's more, notes the Los Angeles Times, he "essentially went silent for months" after announcing his second campaign, and though he attended meetings of local Democratic activists over the summer, he inexplicably "never mentioned that he was running for Congress."
That's why Democrats are still casting about for an alternative, though without much success. Part of the problem, according to the Times, may be that Huerta's mother, legendary labor activist Dolores Huerta, has been sharply discouraging other candidates from entering. Huerta emphatically denies any such effort on her part, but five different Democratic operatives (all speaking anonymously because they don't want to run afoul of the extremely influential Huerta) reported similar conversations with her.
There may yet be some hope, though. One unnamed Democratic strategist told the Times that they expect a "strong recruit" to enter soon. There's no word on who that might be, though last month, Roll Call reported that Steve Schilling, who recently stepped down as CEO of a chain of local health clinics that serve low-income migrant communities, was considering the race and had talked to the DCCC. The filing deadline is March 9, so we'll at least know soon.
● CA-49: We now have our first poll of June's top-two primary in California's 49th Congressional District since longtime GOP Rep. Darrell Issa announced his retirement, courtesy of SurveyUSA. In short, everything is very unsettled:
Doug Applegate (D): 18
Rocky Chavez (R): 17
Diane Harkey (R): 10
Mike Levin (D): 8
Kristin Gaspar (R): 7
Sara Jacobs (D): 5
Brian Maryott (R): 2
Joshua Schoonover (R): 2
Paul Kerr (D): 1
Christina Prejean (D): 1
Undecided: 27
Applegate, the 2016 Democratic nominee, retains enough name recognition to start out in first place, but his 18 percent is far from dominant. Meanwhile, Chavez and Harkey, who are both somewhat prominent elected officials, lead the GOP pack. A plurality of respondents are still undecided, though, and campaigns have not spent a whole lot on voter outreach yet, so this picture is very likely to change over the next few months.
And with the field this fractured, it seems like either party could be at risk of getting locked out of the general election, though the total vote for Republican candidates is higher than that for Democrats, 38-33. However, Trump sports a negative 46-51 job approval rating, while the outgoing Issa is at a similar 44-49, suggesting something of a headwind for the GOP.
● CA-50: GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter has insisted time and again that he's seeking re-election even though he's under FBI investigation for allegedly misusing campaign money for personal things, including a $600 flight for his family's pet rabbit. Hunter's bad headlines didn't stop there, and Politico recently reported that "many people close to the congressman" believe the married Hunter had an affair with a lobbyist. Congressional aides also told Politico that in December, Hunter had an angry confrontation with Speaker Paul Ryan, and observers wondered if Hunter was intoxicated; Hunter has denied both accusations. Trump carried this inland San Diego County district 55-40, but some Republicans are worried that if Hunter's the GOP nominee again this year, he could put what should be a safe seat at risk.
Until now, Hunter didn't have a credible intra-party foe, but that changed on Tuesday when El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells entered the June top-two primary. Wells didn't bring up Hunter's legal woes, instead saying he was "not part of that investigation and know only what other members of the public know." It's not clear if state or national Republican power players are backing Wells, though the fact that the most prominent supporter the mayor mentioned was former Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann has us doubting it. Only about 7 percent of this district covers El Cajon (about half the city is in the neighboring 53rd District), so it's unclear how much name recognition Wells begins with.
Wells himself attracted some bad headlines this year, but for very different reasons. El Cajon announced in January that it was now illegal to feed homeless people in public squares, a move the city said was done to prevent the spread of hepatitis A. But critics saw the move as dehumanizing, and the international media descended on the city after volunteers were arrested when they protested the ban by staging a food sharing event. Last month, the county lifted the health emergency declaration and the city ended its ban soon afterwards, and Well insists he did the right thing.
But while Wells may or may not be a strong opponent, it's clear that Hunter is in bad shape. The congressman's fundraising has slowed to a crawl, and he's been spending heavily on legal fees. At the end of Dec. 31, Hunter had only $291,000 in the bank. Two noteworthy Democrats are running here: former U.S. Labor Department official Ammar Campa-Najjar and Josh Butner, a veteran and local school board member. At the end of 2017, Campa-Najjar had a small $299,000 to $277,000 cash-on-hand lead over Butner. It would take a lot to flip a seat this red, but unless Hunter's legal situation improves quickly, it's looking like he'd have trouble defending his district if he's the nominee.
California's filing deadline is March 9, so we won't need to wait long to see if Hunter goes through with his pledge to run again. The state requires the filing deadline to be extended to March 14 if there's no incumbent running, so if Hunter does bail at the last minute, other local Republicans will have a little time to decide what to do.
● FL-17: GOP Rep. Tom Rooney's Monday retirement announcement came as a big surprise, but it took very little time for other Republicans to start talking about running for this 62-35 Trump seat. About half of this district is concentrated along the Gulf Coast around Venice and Port Charlotte, while the balance is located further inland. The candidate filing deadline is in early May, and the primary will be in late August.
State Sen. Greg Steube told Politico that he would be "making a decision shortly," and state Reps. Joe Gruters and Julio Gonzalez also said they were interested. However, Gruters said he might run for Steube's state Senate seat instead if Steube makes the jump. State Committeeman Christian Ziegler also said that Sarasota County Commissioner Nancy Detert might be interested. Detert ran for another Sarasota-area House seat in 2006, but lost the primary to now-Rep. Vern Buchannan 32-24. State Sen. Lizbeth Benacquisto and state Rep. Ben Albritton were also mentioned as possibilities by Politico. However, while there was early talk that Sarasota County Sheriff Tom Knight could run, he announced on Tuesday that he'd stay out.
● FL-27: Former University of Miami president Donna Shalala hasn't officially joined the race for this open GOP-held seat in Miami, but she recently released a poll from Bendixen & Amandi International of the crowded Democratic primary. Shalala, who led the Health and Human Services Department during Bill Clinton's administration, takes first with 24 percent, while state Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez earns 10 percent, and no other candidate tops 4 percent.
However, the survey also shows that Shalala's name recognition is considerably higher than all of the other candidates, and it's consequently not surprising that she would start out with a small plurality among the crowded field. If she joins the race, it's an open question whether she could hold onto that lead once her rivals have also begun to get their names out ahead of the late Aug. 28 primary.
● NC-09: GOP Rep. Robert Pittenger only won his 2016 primary against pastor Mark Harris by 134 votes, so it's not a surprise that the incumbent is hitting Harris well ahead of their rematch in May. Pittenger's new TV spot argues that, while he's been a Trump ally, Harris "worked to stop Trump from being president" and opposes his military plan.
Harris did indeed say during the 2016 GOP presidential race that, "Coalescing behind Ted Cruz is a way to stop Donald Trump and go into the convention, get our nominee and come out and beat Hillary Clinton in the fall," and when he was asked if he could support Trump, he admitted it was "a very concerning decision that'll have to be made… I can't tell you I feel great about that by any stretch of the imagination." Harris, like almost every other GOP politician in the nation, vigorously backed Trump in the general, but of course Pittenger doesn't care.
Unlike most incumbents, Pittenger doesn't have a clear money lead over his primary foe. At the end of December, Pittenger led Harris $287,000 to $222,000 in cash-on-hand. Pittenger did manage to outraise Harris $206,000 to $155,000 for the quarter, which is a big improvement for the congressman from three months prior. However, Democrat Dan McCready, a veteran and solar businessman, once again outraised both Republicans with a $342,000 haul, and he ended 2017 with $931,000 in the bank. This suburban Charlotte seat backed Trump 54-43, but national Democrats are excited about McCready.
● ND-AL: While former state GOP chair Gary Emineth initially expressed some interest in running for this open House seat, he said Monday he would stay out.
● PA-01: Pennsylvania has a very new and very different congressional map, and we're going to do a walk-through of the new seats in this Digest. We've assembled all our resources for unlocking the new map under PA Redistricting above. Note that the filing deadline for House races is March 20. Because candidates need to collect petitions to make the ballot, however, people need to decide where, or if, to run for the House a lot sooner than that.
Ironically, we start our tour in the seat that changed the least from redistricting. This new seat, which includes all of Bucks County in suburban Philadelphia and a small portion of nearby Montgomery, includes 93 percent of GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's old 8th District. This seat did go from a very narrow 48.2-48.0 Trump to 49.1-47.1 Clinton, a small improvement for Team Blue that could make all the difference in a tight race.
Last cycle, Fitzpatrick won an expensive general election 54-46 to succeed retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, who just happened to be his brother. Fitzpatrick ended the year with a strong $1.1 million in the bank, and while a few Republicans announced that they would challenge him in the primary, none of them look like they have the resources to give him a tough fight.
It took much of the cycle, but Democrats have a few candidates. Navy veteran and JAG attorney Rachel Reddick entered the race in the fall, and she raised $144,000 during her first quarter in the race, and ended December with $80,000 in the bank. Scott Wallace, a wealthy lawyer and philanthropist who co-chairs the investment fund the Wallace Global Fund, jumped in last month, as did environmentalist Steve Bacher.
● PA-02: Two-term Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle's old 13th District was almost cut cleanly in two, with half going to this new North Philadelphia seat and 43 percent going to the new 4th District in Montgomery County. The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed people "familiar with" Boyle's plans, say he'll run in the 2nd, which backed Clinton 73-25. Boyle hails from Philadelphia and he won his 2014 primary with the help of many influential city ward leaders and unions, so it would be a big surprise if he didn't run for the Philly seat.
It's possible that Boyle could face a primary challenge from one or more of the Democrats who were planning to run to succeed retiring Rep. Bob Brady, whose old seat was taken apart by the new map. However, Boyle ended 2017 with a $765,000 war chest, so any would-be opponents aren't exactly catching him off-guard.
● PA-03: Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans already represents about 80 percent of this new and safely blue Philadelphia seat, so there's little question he'll run here. However, Evans had just $103,000 in his war chest at the end of December, so it's possible that at least one other Democrat (perhaps someone who planned to run for retiring Rep. Bob Brady's old seat) will decide to challenge the freshman before he can become entrenched. But Evans has some powerful friends: The longtime state legislator was a key supporter of Gov. Tom Wolf and Mayor Jim Kenney during their 2014 and 2015 primary campaigns, and they backed him during his 2016 bid against scandal-tarred Rep. Chaka Fattah.
● PA-04: Unless Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle surprises us and runs here instead of in the new 2nd District, this will be an open seat. The old map split Montgomery County into five different districts, but all of the House members representing it lived elsewhere. The new map puts about 86 percent of MontCo (as it's often known) in this Clinton 59-39 district, and a Montgomery County Democrat will almost certainly represent it come 2019.
However, it's far from clear who will run in this suburban Philadelphia district. The National Journal reports that former Lower Merion Commissioner Dan Gordon is considering, but he probably won't scare anyone off. Gordon ran in the old Philadelphia-dominated 2nd District last cycle and took a distant third with just 13 percent of the vote, though he did carry the small portion of Montgomery County in the old seat.
● PA-05: The old GOP-drawn map did everything it could to protect GOP Rep. Pat Meehan, and his gerrymandered seat was likened to Goofy kicking Donald Duck. However, the once-formidable Meehan announced he would retire in the wake of a sexual harassment scandal, and redistricting completely changed up what was a 49-47 Clinton seat. The new district includes all of Delaware County as well as small portions of Philadelphia and Montgomery, and this seat backed Clinton 63-34. While several Republicans considered running to replace Meehan before Monday, it's unlikely many of them will stick around now.
We could have quite a large Democratic field here, however. Rich Lazer, who is close to Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney and to local labor groups, has been eyeing a bid for retiring Rep. Bob Brady's old 1st District, and he resigned as a Philadelphia deputy mayor of Friday ahead of his expected campaign launch. However, Lazer seems ready to run in this seat even though his Philadelphia base only makes up about 16 percent of the population, and he put out a statement Monday evening declaring, "The people in the newly drawn district are the same hard-working people I grew up with, who want better lives for themselves and their children." The Philadelphia Inquirer writes that the well-funded Electricians union is "expected" to back him.
A few other candidates who were running for Brady's seat are also considering their options. Nina Ahmad, another former Philadelphia deputy mayor, said on Monday she was reviewing the new map before deciding what to do. Ahmad had a hefty $564,000 on-hand at the end of December, though most of it was self-funded. Financial planner Lindy Li reaffirmed Monday she was running for Congress, but said at the time she wasn't sure if she was in the new 5th District or in Democratic Rep. Dwight Evans' 3rd. Minister and former bank executive Michele Lawrence also said she was still running, but she didn't say where.
The Democrats who were running for Meehan's seat will be on more familiar territory, though they'll also need to decide what to do. So far, we've heard from scientist Molly Sheehan, who said she was running here. Sheehan had $187,000 on-hand at the end of December, though much of that was also self-funded.
● PA-06: GOP Rep. Ryan Costello got to keep about half of his seat (as well as his old district number), but he's in a lot more trouble than he was a week ago. While Costello's old seat backed Clinton just 48.2-47.6, the new suburban Philadelphia district supported her 53-43. Costello already was facing a credible Democratic foe in businesswoman and Air Force officer Chrissy Houlahan, and her prospects have certainly gotten better.
Still, Costello isn't doomed. The new seat, which now includes all of Costello's Chester County base and part of Berks, backed Obama by a smaller 51-48 margin in 2012, and Brian Amos has GOP Sen. Pat Toomey narrowly winning it in the 2016 Senate race. Voters here have also continued to back Republicans down the ballot while voting for Democratic presidential candidates, though Trump may have already done local Republicans some real damage. But there's no doubt that Costello is in danger, and that he's become one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country overnight.
● PA-07: Entrenched GOP Rep. Charlie Dent announced last year that he would retire, but Democrats still were in for a tough race in a seat that had backed Trump 52-44. However, the new version of this Lehigh Valley seat backed Clinton 49-48, and while it's no slam-dunk, Team Blue is pretty happy with how things turned out.
However, while the new map will give Democrats a better chance, it will likely help one conservative candidate win Team Blue's nomination. Northampton County, where John Morganelli has served as district attorney for decades, made up just 22 percent of Dent's old seat, but it takes up a full 42 percent of the new district's population, a development he's very happy about. As we've written before, Morganelli gave GOP Sen. Pat Toomey some useful help during the tight 2016 Senate race, and he's praised Trump multiple times.
Thankfully, Democrats do have some alternatives. Former Allentown Solicitor Susan Wild and pastor Greg Edwards both declared they'd run for the new 7th. It's also possible other Democrats will show more interest in this seat, though that could help Morganelli. Several Republicans were running here, but redistricting threw some of them into other seats, and we'll need to wait for the dust to clear before assessing the field.
● PA-08: Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright was already running in a seat that swung from 55-43 Obama to 53-43 Trump, and his new Scranton-area district isn't much different in that respect. Cartwright only represents about half of the new 8th, with him losing the old coal-mining regions around Schuylkill County while picking up more voters in the state's northeast corner. The new seat went from 55-44 Obama to 53-44 Trump, so on paper, his situation may not be much better or worse than it was last week.
However, redistricting may give Cartwright a tougher opponent. Cartwright was facing John Chrin, a former JP Morgan managing director who still lived in the very affluent community of Short Hills in New Jersey when he launched his campaign. Chrin has been mainly self-funding his bid and he had a hefty $915,000 on-hand at the end of December, but he didn't look like a good fit for this area. However, businessman and former state Revenue Secretary Dan Meuser could be a tougher customer.
Meuser had been running to succeed GOP Rep. Lou Barletta in a red seat, and he ended December with $471,000 on-hand. Meuser now lives in the 8th District, and his campaign says he'll study the new map before deciding what to do. However, Cartwright has been preparing for a potentially tough bid for a while, and he ended December with close to $1.5 million on-hand.
● PA-09: This seat, which includes the coal country northwest of the Philadelphia area, backed Trump 65-31, and the GOP nominee should have little trouble winning it. But at this point, that's all we really know about this race. Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright represents 28 percent of the seat, which is more than any other congressman, but he's not going to run for a district this red. Most of the rest of the seat is represented by Republicans who have already announced they're retiring, so it doesn't look like there will be an incumbent here.
● PA-10: GOP Rep. Scott Perry went from holding a seat that backed Trump 59-37 to one that supported him 52-43. This is still very red turf, but for the first time in his congressional career, Perry may actually need to worry about a Democratic opponent. Perry, who is a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, doesn't exactly seem to be up for a competitive general election, though. Last month, Perry went on Fox and speculated, without the slightest bit of evidence, that the October Las Vegas massacre may have been carried out by ISIS, and suggested evidence supporting his claims were being covered up. Perry also ended December with just $374,000 on-hand, not a strong war chest by any means.
Democrats wasted no time looking for a candidate in this seat, which is centered around Harrisburg and includes York, and they already have someone in mind. State Auditor Eugene DePasquale said on Tuesday that he was considering and would decide on Monday. According to Amos, DePasquale narrowly carried this seat during his 2016 re-election campaign.
● PA-11: GOP Rep. Lloyd Smucker may have been in for a competitive re-election campaign in his old 51-44 Trump seat, but he's the rare Republican who benefited from the new map. Smucker's new 11th District, which includes all of Lancaster County and part of York, backed Trump 61-35, and it's probably too heavy a lift for Team Blue even in a good year.
There's one other historically oddity we want to note before we move on here. As we wrote in November, no Democrat has ever won a House seat based in Lancaster County, the only district in the country where that still holds true. The seat returned a member of the "Jacksonian" Party in 1830, before there was a Democratic Party in Pennsylvania, and it went for the Anti-Masonic Party in 1832. After a stint with the Whigs that began in 1840, the fledgling Republican Party won the Lancaster-based seat in 1856, and it's been in their hands ever since. That streak is now likely to continue for a long time to come.
● PA-12: GOP Rep. Tom Marino still has a safely red seat in rural northeastern Pennsylvania, and about two thirds of his old district is in the new 12th. Marino was facing a primary challenge from Bradford County Commissioner Doug McLinko before, but McLinko ended December with just $36,000 in the bank. All of Bradford is still in Marino's seat, but it doesn't look like he has any more to worry about now than he did last week.
● PA-13: This rural seat, which includes the Altoona area and much of the state's border with Maryland, remains as red as ever at 71-26 Trump. However, only about half of the district remains the same, and several Republicans running to succeed retiring Rep. Bill Shuster may find themselves in a new district. Indeed, state House Majority Leader Dave Reed found himself in the 15th District instead, where GOP Rep. Glenn Thompson is likely to run again. Reed says he's still running for Congress, but it's not clear where. But Reed insists that the new map is illegal, so he may still think he can run in the old 9th District.
Meanwhile, most of state Sen. John Eichelberger's legislative district is in the new 13th, so he has no reason to halt his campaign to succeed Shuster. On the other side of the coin, state Rep. Stephen Bloom was running to succeed Senate candidate Lou Barletta in the old 11th, but he's found much of his home turf here. Bloom said he would spend the next few days deciding whether to continue, but he seems interested in the 13th.
● PA-14: This new seat includes rural areas around Pittsburgh and backed Trump 63-34, and it's almost certain to have a GOP representative in the next Congress. However, things get a whole lot more complicated after that.
About 57 percent of this seat is in the old 18th District, which just happens to have a competitive special election next month between GOP state Rep. Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb, a former federal prosecutor. If Saccone wins that race without much trouble, it makes perfect sense for him to just turn around and run here. However, if Lamb prevails, it's much more likely that the Democrat would seek the new and considerably more competitive 17th District, which would leave this seat open. And if Saccone only narrowly wins the special election, other Republicans may decide he's vulnerable in the May primary for the 14th just two months later.
To make things more complicated, the special is on March 13, just a week before the candidate deadline. This is a messy situation that may not get resolved for a long time.
● PA-15: GOP Rep. Glenn Thompson represents just under 60 percent of this new, but still very red, rural seat in the northwestern part of the state. Thompson has never faced a competitive primary since he won his first election in 2008 with just 19 percent of the vote, and he's probably safe again.
● PA-16: GOP Rep. Mike Kelly's new 16th District starts from Erie and moves south to the Pittsburgh area. The new seat backed Trump 58-38, not that much better than his 61-35 margin in the old district. Romney did only carry this seat 52-47, so it could be competitive under the right circumstances, but Democrats would need to work fast to find a credible candidate.
● PA-17: Redistricting moved GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus' suburban Pittsburgh seat quite a bit from the left; while Trump carried his old district 59-38, he won the new seat just 49-47, which is actually smaller than Romney's 52-47 showing here.
Rothfus hasn't faced a competitive general election in a while, but he didn't fare especially well when he did. Rothfus challenged Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire during the 2010 GOP wave in a seat that McCain had carried 55-45, but he lost 51-49. Rothfus did unseat Democratic Rep. Mark Critz 52-48 two years later, though he ran well behind Romney's 58-41 showing. But unlike so many other Pennsylvania House members who may suddenly need to worry about re-election, Rothfus actually has taken the time to build up a war chest for an emergency. At the end of December, Rothfus had $1.2 million in the bank.
It remains to be seen what Democrat runs here. But as we noted in PA-14, if Democrat Conor Lamb prevails in next month's special election for the old 18th District, it would make sense for him to campaign here in November. And if Lamb falls short but still continues to impress Democrats, he'll probably be urged to go after Rothfus. Awkwardly though, the candidate filing deadline is one week after Lamb's special election.
● PA-18: Longtime Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle looks as safe as he did before redistricting. Doyle's new seat remains based around the city of Pittsburgh, and it's unlikely to go anywhere at 62-35 Clinton. There were no serious primary challengers on the horizon before, and there are unlikely to be any now.
Finally, we have one bit of housekeeping. To avoid confusing next month's special election in the old 18th District for this seat, we'll be referring to that race as PA-18 Special. In the very unlikely event that we do talk more about the race for Doyle's seat this year, that contest will be called PA-18.
● TX-02: Prominent GOP donor Kathaleen Wall, who has the support of Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz, is out with another TV spot ahead of the March 6 primary, and it wastes zero time demonizing undocumented immigrants. The narrator insists that the border wall used to be "about illegal immigrants taking our jobs," but "[n]ow, they're taking our lives." The ad argues that "Islamic terrorists and Mexican drug cartels are coming now, too," and Wall wants politicians to stop dithering. The narrator concludes that Kathaleen Wall is the one who will build the wall in Congress.
Wall faces a number of foes in the primary for this open suburban Houston seat, but she's likely to outspend them all. Wall donated $2.7 million to her campaign last year, and she ended 2017 with $2.3 million in the bank. The Republican with the second-largest war chest was state Rep. Kevin Roberts, who had $445,000 through a combination of fundraising and self-funding. Updated campaign finance reports are due by Thursday night, so we'll have a better idea of who has been spending what soon. If no one takes a majority next month, there will be a runoff in May. Trump won 52-43 here.
● VA-05: Ugh. Democrats in Virginia's 5th Congressional District—alone among their counterparts throughout the state—have decided they're going to select a nominee through a convention rather than a traditional state-run primary after all. There had been talk that district leaders might switch from the former to the latter, but a recent conference call on the matter "quickly devolved into fighting and accusations," according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Tyler Hammel.
Making matters worse, some local party officials are worried that they don't even have enough time to properly organize a convention, which is scheduled for May 5. Indeed, 5th District Committee Vice Chairwoman Cyliene Montgomery says that no agreement has yet been reached on "a timeline, a budget, delegate allocations, and appointments for convention and local caucus committees"—in other words, absolutely no preparations have even begun, yet alone been completed.
There's still a small chance that this entirely preventable shitshow could yet be averted, but the deadline for choosing a primary is Feb. 27, and the local committee isn't scheduled to meet again until March 2. It sounds like if they held another meeting, though, it wouldn't be very productive. And not only will this mess of a convention—if they can even pull it off—permit far fewer voters to participate, it will encourage candidates to spend the next two-plus months wooing a tiny number of delegates rather than engaging with the broader electorate. That's a recipe for producing a weak nominee, and given that unseating freshman GOP Rep. Tom Garrett is already a tough task, that's a dismaying prospect.
