CA-25: Attorney and 2016 Democratic nominee Bryan Caforio is out with a poll of the June top-two primary from ALG Research (no, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes doesn't have a side job as a pollster; Anzalone Liszt Grove Research is now mainly going by ALG Research). The survey gives GOP Rep. Steve Knight the lead with 43 percent, while Caforio leads nonprofit director Katie Hill 19-10 for the second general election spot; volcanologist Jess Phoenix takes 7, while others are at 5.
It makes sense that Caforio, who lost an expensive race last cycle, would have more support than his fellow Democrats at this point, especially since no one has started airing ads yet. But Hill, who has never run for office before, may have room to grow. Hill outraised Caforio $248,000 to $203,000 in the final quarter of 2017, and she had a small $383,000 to $377,000 cash-on-hand lead. Phoenix took in $157,000 during this time, but she had only $110,000 at the end of the year, while other Democrats barely had anything to spend.
However, Caforio's poll argues that he'd still lead among Democrats even if his two main opponents get their names out. After positive information is read about all three (the memo includes the text of the profiles that were read to respondents), Caforio's lead over Hill among registered Democrats goes from 34-19 to 41-27. However, the poll doesn't say how this positive information impacted Caforio's standing with independents, or how it changed his overall standing in the June top-two primary matchup.
Knight beat Caforio 53-47 as this north Los Angeles County seat swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-44 Clinton, and he'll be a top Democratic target this year. Knight ended 2017 with a $795,000 war chest, which is considerably larger than any of his Democratic foes. However, Knight has long been a meh fundraiser, and he doesn't seem to be in much of a hurry to fix that. Knight raised $238,000 in the last quarter, a big improvement from his $144,000 haul three months earlier, but an underwhelming sum for an incumbent in a tough seat.