The political press has given much attention to the 7 California congressional districts that voted for Hillary Clinton for President in 2016 but have Republican incumbents—the Crooked Seven, as liberal podcast Pod Save America calls them. But did you know that there are 11 such districts for California’s State Assembly?
Yes, that’s right: 11 of the measly 25 Republican incumbents in California’s State Assembly represent constituents who preferred Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump. Needless to say, this statistic creates some real opportunities for the California Democratic Party to increase its supermajority in Sacramento. Many of these districts overlap with competitive congressional districts, too. If outside groups spend lots of money on liberal and minority voter turnout in these areas, these districts may flip.
But which of these districts are most likely to flip? I’ve taken the time to look at the numbers, research the candidates, and come up with a ranking. I’ve also included links to some Democratic candidate websites so that, if you are interested, you can easily donate and sign up to volunteer with an active campaign.
If you happen to live in any of these districts, please consider getting involved with the campaigns of the Democratic candidates. More Democrats and fewer Republicans in the legislature makes it easier to pass progressive legislation and also undermines the GOP bench for future congressional races. So even though Democrats currently hold a strong grip on California politics, these elections still matter quite a bit.
Here are the 11 GOP-held “Hillary” districts in the California State Assembly and their current Republican representatives, ranked by their likelihood of flipping to Democratic representation in 2018.
1. Marc Steinorth in AD-40: Nobody has a target painted on their back as clearly as the one on incumbent Marc Steinorth. In 2016, he won by 1%, and Hillary won the district 54-40. In 2016, he faced fierce competition from school board representative and non-profit executive Abigail Medina. This time around, however, he’s drawn an eyebrow-raising opponent: San Bernardino County Supervisor James Ramos.
This Inland Empire district is minority-majority. It includes 2/3 of San Bernardino, Redlands, almost all of Rancho Cucamonga, and a few other towns. It does not overlap with any competitive congressional districts this cycle, but given the large Hispanic and Asian American communities here, it seems likely that a Democratic base will feel motivated to vote.
2. Open Seat in AD-72: GOP incumbent and known crazy person Travis Allen is running for Governor, which has created an excellent opening for this 51-43 Hillary seat. Josh Lowenthal, entrepreneur and son of congressman Alan Lowenthal, is the likely Democratic nominee, having received the endorsement of the California Democratic Party. There is no clear Republican opponent at this time.
This district also is minority-majority, although that statistic includes somewhat conservative Vietnamese-American communities in the region. The district consists of the Northwest corner of Orange County, including Westminster, half of Huntington Beach, ¾ of Garden Grove, and other surrounding communities. It overlaps with the competitive 48th Congressional district (held by Russian stooge Dana Rohrabacher) as well as the Orange County portion of the 47th congressional district, represented by the aforementioned father Lowenthal.
3. Dante Acosta in AD-38: Incumbent Dante Acosta won by 6% last time. Hillary won 49.6-44.4. Christy Smith, last cycle's candidate, is running again and has received the endorsement of the CA Democratic party. Smith is a school board member and community activist. She may have slightly underperformed Hillary Clinton, but there is good reason to believe she’ll do better this time. In addition to all the obvious reasons to expect a blue wave, since 2016, this district has moved a full 1% more Democratic in voter registration numbers, despite the fact that voter registration statistics in California normally become slightly less Democratic following elections.
The district consists of Santa Clarita, the Porter Ranch neighborhood in Los Angeles, and more conservative Simi Valley in Ventura County. It overlaps with the very competitive 25th congressional district, currently represented by Republican Steve Knight.
4. Open Seat in AD-76: GOP incumbent Rocky Chavez is running for the 49th congressional district, from which Republican Henchman and Possible Arsonist Darrell Issa is retiring. The district is fully contained within the 49th and voted for Hillary by a 53.1-40.4 margin. You may be wondering why Democrats haven’t won here in the past. The answer, sadly, is that no Democrats bothered to run in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We literally have no idea how a Democratic candidate will do here, as no Democrats have run.
There are two big questions in this race: 1) do we have a strong enough Democratic candidate and 2) could the top 2 mess Democrats up with two Republicans winning out? Both are open questions.
There are too many candidates to name, but so far, Encinitas City Council Member Tasha Boerner Horvath appears to be the Democratic front runner. It’s also possible that a candidate currently running for the 49th congressional district will drop down and enter this race. The district consists of Camp Pendleton and the Northwest coastal communities of San Diego County: Oceanside, Carlsbad, Vista, and Encinitas.
5. Brian Maienschein in AD-77: Incumbent and former San Diego City Council member Brian Maienschein hasn't faced a serious challenge before, and the seat went 55.2-38.9 Hillary. However, he has the perception of being moderate and a lot of connections and allies in both Sacramento and San Diego. Sunday Gover, a realtor with ties to LGBT activism, is running a strong campaign, and she recently sent out an email showing an internal poll put her only 2% behind Maienschein in a 42-40 margin. But as a first-time candidate against a very experienced politician, Gover inevitably will face some challenges. She has received the CA Democratic Party’s endorsement.
The district consists of Rancho Santa Fe, Poway, Fairbanks Ranch, and ~30% of San Diego. It does not overlap with any expected competitive congressional races.
6. Catharine Baker in AD-16: Two election cycles in a row, incumbent Catharine Baker has faced competitive elections, and two times in a row, she’s prevailed in this suburban Bay Area district that voted for Hillary Clinton by a 64.5-29.2 margin. She's the only Republican elected to a legislative seat in the entire SF Bay Area, and becoming increasingly entrenched. Baker plays the "moderate" game really well. She has capitalized on the distaste for unions (especially the BART workers union) that permeates these communities, causing voters to split their ballots for her. Environmental lawyer Rebecca Bauer-Kahan is the likely Democratic candidate who has received the CA Democratic Party’s endorsement, but she's a first-time candidate. If she can get voters in these communities to object to the Baker’s more conservative stances on environmental and immigration issues, she could break through this cycle. But it’s an uphill battle.
The district consists of Alameda County’s Tri-Valley area as well as some of Contra Costa County’s wealthier suburbs, such as Lafayette and Walnut Creek.
7. Matthew Harper in AD-74: Matt Harper is very strongly entrenched in this 50.7-43.3 Hillary OC district, but he could be vulnerable in a blue wave. He’s a longtime political player, having previously served on the Huntington Beach school board, its city council, and as Chairman of the Young Republicans of California. Realtor Catherine "Cottie" Petrie-Norris received the California Democratic Party’s endorsement and likely will become the nominee.
One reason to think this seat may flip, however, is that the district is fully contained within two of the most competitive congressional races in California: the 45th (Mimi Walters) and the 48th (aforementioned Russian stooge). There’s no doubt that Democrats will be investing heavily in Democratic turnout here, and if somebody is taking the time to choose a candidate for Congress, why wouldn’t they also vote for Assembly? Furthermore, although Harper is a savvy operative, he’s mainly had to navigate beating other Republicans. As far as I can tell, he’s never had to try to build bipartisan constituent support. Unless he learns to do so swiftly, he may fall victim to a blue wave.
The district consists of the central coastal portion of Orange County, stretching from Huntington Beach to Laguna Beach.
The next four seats are heavier lifts to flip. But, given that these districts did vote for Hillary, they shouldn’t be taken off the table.
8. Jordan Cunningham in AD-35: Jordan Cunningham holds a 49.6-43.4 Hillary district, and is a new member of the assembly. He previously was a school board member in the town of Templeton. His likely Democratic opponent is campaign finance reform activist Bill Ostrander, who has received the CA Democratic party endorsement. This district doesn't overlap with any likely competitive races in a blue wave, unless Salud Carbajal in the 24th district becomes vulnerable. There therefore may not be as much outside investment as other races. He'll require a groundswell of local support to win.
9. Steve Choi in AD-68: Incumbent Steve Choi has attracted a formidable opponent in Michelle Duman, a local businesswoman who received the CA Democratic Party’s endorsement. The district does overlap with the competitive 45th district (Mimi Walters), but this area has a sizable Asian American community that's crucial for Democrats to win over and likely to favor Choi. It's also only a 49.4-44.6 Hillary district.
10. Tom Lackey in AD-36: This election all depends on the nominee.
As of right now, incumbent Tom Lackey seems likely to face former assemblymember Steve Fox a third time. Fox barely beat a Republican when the seat opened up in 2012, then lost in 2014 60.2-39.8 in the wake of some financial scandals. He then lost a comeback bid in 2016 53.1-46.9. It has since come out that his office paid a $100K sexual harassment settlement during his one term.
Fox appears to be the only declared candidate so far, but another candidate may enter soon: Johnathon Ervin, a former Lancaster Planning Commissioner and Air Force Reservist who lost the local 21st State Senate seat 52.8-47.2 last year (a 48.5-45.6 Hillary district). However, he doesn't have a website or donation page right now—he's only filed initial paperwork with LA County. At 49.9-43.9 Hillary, AD-36 is slightly bluer than the 21st State Senate district, so Ervin could do well here. I'd move it up to the #5 spot on this list if he does declare.
If Ervin doesn't enter the race and no other Democrat does either, we probably need ridiculously high turnout among people voting straight ticket Democrat and not thinking about the down ballot. Frankly, though, I don't know if I'd even want Steve Fox to win, given his conservative bent and history of scandals.
This district includes Lancaster, Palmdale, California City, and other parts of the High Desert at the intersection of Los Angeles, Kern, and San Bernardino counties. It overlaps with the 25th congressional district (Steve Knight).
11. Phillip Chen in AD-55: Incumbent Phillip Chen is likely to face, yet again, Democratic candidate Gregg Fritchle. Fritchle ran for this seat in 2012, 2014, and 2016, and has never come close to winning. It's only a 49.9-44.6 Hillary seat, and like AD-68, the district has a solid Asian American base of support. But maybe in a big blue wave, this will flip, too.
The 55th Assembly district overlaps with the 39th congressional district, from which Ed Royce is retiring. Phillip Chen has held the seat since 2016, when former Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chan ran for the 29th State Senate seat and lost. If one of the current Democratic 39th congressional district candidates drops down to this race, it may become more competitive, but the California Democratic Party already gave its endorsement to Fritchle, suggesting they don’t expect any of them to do so.