On Feb. 19, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court issued a new congressional map to replace the state’s Republican-drawn boundaries, which the court had previously invalidated as a partisan gerrymander that violated the state’s constitution. The new districts represent a considerable change from what came before, so to help you navigate them, we’ve calculated the results for the 2016, 2012, and 2008 presidential elections for each seat. The 2016 results are visualized in the map at the top of this post, and the numbers for all three elections are detailed in the table below:
|
2016 |
2012 |
2008 |
District |
Incumbent |
Party |
Clinton |
Trump |
Obama |
Romney |
Obama |
McCain |
PA-01 |
Fitzpatrick |
(R) |
49.1 |
47.1 |
50.2 |
48.6 |
53.9 |
45.0 |
PA-02 |
Boyle |
(D) |
72.9 |
24.9 |
77.4 |
21.8 |
73.1 |
26.1 |
PA-03 |
Evans |
(D) |
90.9 |
7.0 |
91.7 |
7.6 |
91.8 |
7.8 |
PA-04 |
OPEN |
(D) |
57.8 |
38.5 |
56.1 |
42.8 |
59.5 |
39.6 |
PA-05 |
OPEN |
(R) |
62.6 |
34.4 |
63.4 |
35.7 |
62.8 |
36.3 |
PA-06 |
OPEN |
(R) |
52.6 |
43.3 |
51.0 |
47.8 |
55.7 |
43.4 |
PA-07 |
OPEN |
(R) |
48.7 |
47.6 |
52.9 |
45.9 |
56.6 |
42.1 |
PA-08 |
Cartwright |
(D) |
43.7 |
53.3 |
55.3 |
43.4 |
56.7 |
42.3 |
PA-09 |
OPEN |
(R) |
31.0 |
65.0 |
41.2 |
57.2 |
45.6 |
53.0 |
PA-10 |
Perry |
(R) |
43.4 |
52.3 |
46.0 |
52.6 |
48.6 |
50.3 |
PA-11 |
Smucker |
(R) |
34.7 |
60.5 |
38.0 |
60.5 |
42.0 |
57.1 |
PA-12 |
Marino |
(R) |
29.7 |
66.1 |
36.8 |
61.5 |
41.7 |
57.0 |
PA-13 |
OPEN |
(R) |
25.5 |
71.2 |
32.1 |
66.6 |
37.0 |
61.8 |
PA-14 |
VACANT |
|
33.9 |
62.9 |
40.6 |
58.3 |
44.7 |
54.2 |
PA-15 |
Thompson |
(R) |
26.5 |
69.8 |
35.7 |
62.6 |
42.6 |
55.8 |
PA-16 |
Kelly |
(R) |
37.9 |
57.9 |
46.9 |
51.7 |
49.6 |
49.0 |
PA-17 |
Lamb
Rothfus
|
(D)
(R)
|
46.8 |
49.4 |
47.2 |
51.7 |
48.6 |
50.5 |
PA-18 |
Doyle |
(D) |
62.1 |
34.6 |
63.5 |
35.2 |
63.4 |
35.7 |
We’ve also visualized these numbers using a specialized type of map called a cartogram, which shows each district as equally sized:
In addition, we’ve published more detailed calculations of the presidential results summarized above, with county-level breakdowns. We've also compiled a number of other resources to help guide you through Pennsylvania’s new map:
As you can see, thanks to five retirements and one resignation, fully one third of Pennsylvania's new congressional districts are open seats. One important thing to be aware of is that not only were the district lines scrambled, the entire map was renumbered, too. For these reasons, that makes it tricky to match up old districts with new ones, but the chart below will help you get your bearings. Note that the presidential numbers below are for the old districts.
|
2016 |
2012 |
New CD |
Old CD |
Incumbent |
Party |
Clinton |
Trump |
Obama |
Romney |
PA-01 |
PA-08 |
Brian Fitzpatrick |
(R) |
48.0 |
48.2 |
49.3 |
49.4 |
PA-02 |
PA-13 |
Brendan Boyle |
(D) |
65.3 |
31.7 |
66.2 |
32.9 |
PA-03 |
PA-02 |
Dwight Evans |
(D) |
90.4 |
7.6 |
90.4 |
9.0 |
PA-04 |
PA-13 |
Brendan Boyle |
(D) |
65.3 |
31.7 |
66.2 |
32.9 |
PA-05 |
PA-07 |
Pat Meehan (retiring) |
(R) |
49.3 |
47.0 |
48.5 |
50.4 |
PA-06 |
PA-06 |
Ryan Costello (retiring) |
(R) |
48.2 |
47.6 |
48.1 |
50.6 |
PA-07 |
PA-15 |
Charlie Dent (retiring) |
(R) |
44.2 |
51.8 |
47.9 |
50.8 |
PA-08 |
PA-17 |
Matt Cartwright |
(D) |
43.3 |
53.4 |
55.4 |
43.3 |
PA-09 |
PA-17 |
Matt Cartwright |
(D) |
43.3 |
53.4 |
55.4 |
43.3 |
PA-10 |
PA-04 |
Scott Perry |
(R) |
37.1 |
58.6 |
41.5 |
57.1 |
PA-11 |
PA-16 |
Lloyd Smucker |
(R) |
44.2 |
51.0 |
46.3 |
52.4 |
PA-12 |
PA-10 |
Tom Marino |
(R) |
30.1 |
66.1 |
38.4 |
60.1 |
PA-13 |
PA-09 |
Bill Shuster (retiring) |
(R) |
27.2 |
69.7 |
35.9 |
62.8 |
PA-14 |
PA-18 |
VACANT |
|
38.5 |
58.1 |
41.0 |
57.9 |
PA-15 |
PA-05 |
Glenn Thompson |
(R) |
33.5 |
62.3 |
41.5 |
57.1 |
PA-16 |
PA-03 |
Mike Kelly |
(R) |
35.0 |
61.1 |
43.0 |
55.6 |
PA-17 |
PA-12 |
Conor Lamb
Keith Rothfus
|
(D)
(R)
|
37.9 |
58.7 |
40.9 |
57.8 |
PA-18 |
PA-14 |
Mike Doyle |
(D) |
66.0 |
30.5 |
68.0 |
30.6 |
We’ve made these judgments by determining which old district forms a plurality of each new district. You’ll see that in a couple of cases, we’ve categorized the same old district as the predecessor for two different new districts, specifically the old PA-13 with regard to the new PA-02 and PA-04, and the old PA-17 with regard to the new PA-09 and PA-09). That leaves the old PA-01 and PA-11 out in the cold, because those districts were all but disassembled by the new map.
One final note: We’ve calculated the results of the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections for Pennsylvania’s new districts in a somewhat different (and, we believe, more accurate) manner than the ways in which earlier estimates were compiled. On Feb. 22, the state Supreme Court published what are known as the “textual descriptions” of each district, describing exactly which counties, municipalities, precincts—and, in cases where those entities are split between districts, which parts thereof—are in which district. (We also took that very difficult-to-parse plain text document and structured it in spreadsheet form.)
We have used these textual descriptions, rather than the geometric descriptions contained in what are known as “shapefiles” that the court previously published, to calculate the presidential results for each district. As a result, you might encounter small differences between our numbers and those of other analysts. (We calculated the 2008 results using the court’s shapefiles and Dave’s Redistricting App.)