CNN’s latest poll has the Dems up 16 (this on heels of a Quinippiac poll a week ago that had the Dems up 15)
CNN notes that Democratic issues are dominating:
Health care and gun policy are deemed deeply important by about half of voters (53% and 49%, respectively, call them extremely important), while about four in 10 say they are as motivated by the economy (43%) and immigration (38%). Sexual harassment is a sharp motivator for 36% of voters. Taxes, an issue Republicans have said will move voters as they realize the benefits of the tax changes passed last year, is extremely important for 35%. The investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election rounds out the list, with just about a quarter (26%) calling that extremely important to their vote.
There are wide partisan gaps on how important several issues are to voters, with Democratic voters more likely to say they are particularly moved by health care (65%, vs 40% among Republicans), gun policy (62%, vs. 40% among Republicans), sexual harassment (50%, vs. 21% of Republicans) and immigration (48%, vs. 32% among Republicans).
So we all learned about the dangers of Cherry picking polls. CNN and Quinippiac are both at the high end of their ranges. Last week so were both Reuters and YouGov. Only Marist was below the top of their range. Pretty clear evidence that whatever bounce there was out of the tax cut has eroded.
So what does all of this mean. One way of looking at polls is to look at the election results if each one was accurate to understand the true range and the projected share of seats.
These numbers are altered to account for the recent redistricting change in Pennsylvania. The chart should make even aware of how wide the range of results are at this stage.
There is a long way to go — anything could happen.
One thing to think about though — If, IF CNN and Quinipiac are right, the Democrats would win a landslide of the scale seen only once since the end of World War 2.