POLITICO today says the GOP is calling all hands on deck in a frantic effort to help keep what should normally be a strong Republican seat in Western PA, south of Pittsburgh.
PA 18 has had an interesting history. Made up both of wealthy suburbs and large rural areas, many with long ties to the state’s once vibrant coal industry, it was for many years solidly Democratic, in part due to strong labor unions. But in more recent years, right-wing politics has swung the district which went for Trump by 20%. Sounds like a GOP slam dunk huh? WRONG!!!
It seems incumbent Republican Representative Tim Murphy, who has held the seat since 2003, had to suddenly resign late last year when it was revealed he had had an affair with a colleague. (When you run on family values, that kind of stuff comes back to bite you.)
That occasioned the need for a special election, now set for March 13th. Lamb won the Democratic primary and the GOP winner was Rick Saccone, a current member of the PA House and a former Air Force counter intelligence officer who is playing on his claimed ability to make everyone safe by “arresting and interrogating terrorists,” and boasting his belief in the policies of Donald J. Trump.
So, why is the national GOP so freaked out?
First, Sacccone sucks at fund raising. The 4Q fund raising reports submitted by Lamb and Saccone show Lamb raising over a half million, much of it in small donations, while Lamb took in about a third of that amount. Lamb has twice as much cash on hand.
TV ads are already starting to predominate on Pittsburgh TV stations (lots of waste as usual since they are aimed at just one quadrant of the broadcast antenna pie.)
Saccone’s ads, mostly paid for with an infusion of cash from the Republican Campaign Committee, are touting his “toughness” and military career and trying to paint Lamb as weak on abortion and gun control and the military.
A second batch has sought to play on Lamb’s name by claiming he is part of Nancy Pelosi’s “flock” and committed to her “liberal agenda of raising taxes and weakening the military.” As the narrator spells out the charges, footage of sheep and lambs running hither and yon predominate the screen.
Lamb meanwhile is using Democratic sponsored ads asserting that Saccone is for Trump’s tax plan for the rich and as a legislator has given away so much money to corporate interests that there isn’t anything left for local roads and schools.
A more straightforward ad also spells out who he is...former marine, still likes to shoot (clip of him at firing range), former prosecutor in the US Attorney’s office in Pittsburgh and committed to ending gridlock and “working with anybody who wants to get the job done.” The Saccone claims that Lamb is a tool for Pelosi are also offset by Lamb’s statements that he believes new leadership is needed in DC, including someone to replace Pelosi.
A late January analysis by Gregory Naigles looks at past elections in the state and the district and says Lamb has about a 25% chance of winning this election. Charlie Cook has listed the district as “leans Republican,” but that is a shift from an earlier solid R ranking.
But if this still looks like pretty good territory for Republicans, why is the party, according to POLITICO, bringing out the heavy weaponry for Saccone? Because with recent party losses in VA, Wisconsin and AL, they can ill afford to see yet another Democratic victory as the regular mid-terms come racing at us.
And yet they are faced with twin problems: A candidate they probably would have preferred NOT to have (not a good image contrast with Lamb...older, heavy weight, focusing on law and order….vs. a young, dynamic, flexible candidate with mounting donor support, and a set of issue positions that undercut Saccone’s attempts to gut him in the minds of voters.)
The GOP has so far brought in VP Mike Pence. Reportedly about 350 people turned up for the appearance and that’s not great. But the party is also holding special fund raisers for Saccone to help keep him afloat in the cash race with Lamb. However, the GOP undoubtedly is also furious that it has to expend all this extra time, effort and money when they clearly are going to need millions and millions to face off against a looming Democratic tidal wave election that seems to be forming in the mid-terms.
What is also apparent that simply having lots of money is NOT going to be a guarantee of success this year. It didn’t work all that much in other special elections so far with committed, angry and well organized Democratic grass roots voters organizing to get out the vote. We undoubtedly are going to witness another barrage of TV advertising here, much of it negative, in the next month, but the outcome is going to depend heavily on passion, commitment and ground game to turn out the vote. By all indicators, the Democrats seem to have that in spades.
Last month a poll by America First Action, a Trump-backing organization, found that Lamb had pulled to within single digits. And Trump himself has not been aiding his own cause. The tax plan isn’t proving to be producing as promised for the middle class and the stock market dive in the past few days has to be freaking out a lot of GOP supporters.
He continues to tout clean coal, but that issue has less and less weight in the region with the growing recognition that the coal industry is a thing of the past, and coupled with Pittsburgh’s strong economic transition from an economy of coal and steel to one of health care, high tech and innovation (and a top 20 finalist in the battle to become the site for Amazon’s next HQ).
POLITICO’s own observations:
Lamb, perhaps wary of being tied too closely to Democratic leadership while running in a conservative district, declined to answer directly when asked whether he wants additional help from his national party to counter the Republican barrage.
"We're running a local campaign," he said.
Lamb is walking a fine line, carefully avoiding overt criticism of Trump, who remains popular in the district, while also engaging the Democratic voters whose support he needs. The candidate has said he’s willing to work with the president on issues affecting Pennsylvania’s 18th District, an area filled with union households that encompasses Pittsburgh’s southern suburbs. Those include passing an infrastructure bill and combating the opioid crisis.
Yet Lamb has also blamed Washington Republicans for failing to pass an infrastructure package one year into Trump's presidency.
Many Republicans are convinced that the district's pro-Trump tilt will be enough to put Saccone over the top. But others are concerned that Lamb’s stylistic talents as a candidate make him a serious threat.
Dems….Lamb can use your small dollar support.
Click here to make your own contribution via ActBlue
And if you can, pitch in to help the campaign directly
https://conorlamb.com
Just over a month to go. Pitch in with small donations vs. the big bucks secret PAC funding for Saccone. Pitch in to get out the vote and talk up Lamb as a viable candidate.
And most of all, make Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and Donnie weep on March 18th and spend lots more money on a losing candidate in a deep red district.