CA-48: Last week, former Orange County GOP Chair Scott Baugh launched a surprise bid against his former friend Rep. Dana Rohrabacher just as candidate filing was about to close. Normally, Democrats wouldn't mind it if a vulnerable incumbent went through a bruising primary before the general election, but the June top-two primary complicates things.
Baugh is well-funded, and more than a few Democrats are worried that he and Rohrabacher will take the two general election spots and cost Team Blue a chance at a coastal Orange County seat that went from 55-43 Romney to 48-46 Clinton. And the Democratic group Fight Back CA is out with an early March poll from Change Research arguing that Team Blue very much needs to be careful to avoid a lockout:
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc): 35
Architect Laura Oatman (D): 10
Real estate company owner Harley Rouda (D): 10
Former Orange County GOP Chair Scott Baugh (R): 7
Biologist Hans Keirstead (D): 7
Tech executive Rachel Payne (D): 4
Nestlé executive Michael Kotick (D): 3
Business Operations Manager Brandon Reiser (Libertarian): 4
Businessman Stelian Onufrei (R): 3
A number of other candidates from both parties took 3 percent or less.
If Fight Back CA was hoping to convince some of these Democrats to drop out before the Friday deadline and give Team Blue a better shot to advance, not many took heed. The only Democrat who planned to run but decided not to late in the race was Boyd Roberts, who took just 1 percent in this poll and had little money or support. According to the Los Angeles Times, a grand total of six Republicans, eight Democrats, and two others will be on the ballot.
No matter what happens, this will be a considerably tougher race for Rohrabacher than he's used to. Democrats began eyeing this seat after it swung hard against Trump, and Rohrabacher has earned negative press for being a transparent shill for Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. Baugh kicked off his bid by arguing that the congressman "has lost focus on what’s important and does not seem to understand that the middle-class families in our district care more about their jobs, the economy and taxes than about Vladimir Putin, Julian Assange and marijuana."
However, Baugh may also be motivated by personal animosity. Baugh, who served in the state Assembly until 2000, began raising money for a congressional bid back in early 2016. Rohrabacher said at the time that Baugh wasn't campaigning against him, and was instead "just laying the foundation for a race for Congress when I am no longer a member... but I don't know when that's going to be." Baugh himself initially seemed to confirm this, but things got tense after he later said he wasn't "going to engage in speculation" when they asked if he might run against Rohrabacher if he doesn't retire."
Rohrabacher was pissed, and he publicly claimed that his longtime pal had "represented to me and many of my supporters/donors that he would never run against me and was only raising money for when I retire. Baugh now seems to be evolving out of that commitment," and told him to return the donations. Baugh stopped raising money but held onto his war chest, and at the end of December, the congressman had a modest $713,000 to $545,000 cash-on-hand lead. One other Republican candidate with some money is Onufrei, who threw down about $250,000 of his own money before the end of the year and has said he'll spend a total of $500,000.
As this poll indicates, things are even more chaotic on the Democratic side. National Democrats showed an early interest in Keirstead, a prominent stem cell scientist who received a donation from DCCC chair Ben Ray Lujan last year, though the national committee hasn't taken sides publicly. Keirstead did recently pick up a useful endorsement from the state party, and he had a credible $490,000 in the bank at the end of 2017. But it's very surprising that this poll shows Oatman, who only had $72,000 in the bank, going so well, though she may have a tough time holding onto any lead with so little money.
Rouda entered the race early, and thanks to some serious self-funding, he had a large $834,000 war chest. Payne had just $81,000 on-hand, but she's since picked up an endorsement from EMILY's List. Siddiqui is a self-described Reagan Democrat who lives outside this seat, and while he barely registered in the poll, the wealthy candidate had a large $540,000 war chest. Finally, Kotick had just $163,000 on-hand, and he doesn't seem to have much outside support. With so many Democrats fighting over the blue slice of the pie in the June top-two primary, there's just no telling what will happen.