I know that many of us here are still reveling in the victory last night of Conor Lamb in the (old) PA-18 special election. And for good reason!
But I just want to get ahead of all the mainstream media pundits who will now say, that the win last night in Trump country, is a referendum on Trump — because whatever narrative emerges will largely shape Democratic strategy going into the midterms.
I think this is partially true. After all — as bad Midterms are for Presidential parties, you do not normally see a district turn against the Party they chose in the last Presidential election by about 20 points.
However, I think the larger factor we must not lose sight on, is this: The GOP Tax Sham.
The GOP Tax Sham is the only major legislative victory that incumbent Republicans can point to under the Trump Regime.
Although it throws a lot of people under the bus, Congressional Republicans were hoping that it would stand up as enough of an achievement, that it would be their life-preserver through the Midterms and a potential Blue Wave.
Of course, a life-preserver can only keep you afloat for so long; but that is where the Republicans’ inherent advantages are supposed to step in: their dark money, gerrymandering, and voter suppression.
The problem for Republicans is, rather than acting as the life-preserver, their Tax bill is acting more as a boat anchor.
This played out in the PA-18 special election.
Politico: Republicans abandon tax cut message in Pa. special election
Republicans backed away from their signature tax-cut law in the final days of a closely watched special House election in the Pittsburgh suburbs — even though it's the very accomplishment on which they had banked their midterm election hopes.
For the weeks of Feb. 4 and Feb. 11, roughly two-thirds of the broadcast television ads from Saccone’s campaign, the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC and the National Republican Congressional Committee mentioned taxes, according to a POLITICO analysis of data from Advertising Analytics. For the week of Feb. 18, that dropped to 36 percent, and to 14 percent the week after. Since the beginning of March, tax ads have been essentially nonexistent. Only two are on the air now — a TV ad from America First Action, a pro-President Donald Trump super PAC that briefly mentions the tax law, and a radio ad from a progressive group attacking Saccone for supporting the law.
It is likely all the Trump scandals takes the air out of the sails. And the more people learn about the tax bill, the less they will like. And the more they will see it going to the wealthy and big corporations, who aren’t letting it trickle back down to everyone else. And the fact that, now that we are approaching the tax return deadline, people are actually going to see just how little they gain (or even lose) thanks to those cuts.
It all adds up to a GOP campaign weak point, rather than strength.
Here’s where the need for Democrats to focus their strategy come in: Republicans are doubling down on their tax plan for the Midterms:
The polling in Pennsylvania hasn’t stopped Republicans from putting their tax plan front and center in the long term.
“Look, it’s going to be a centerpiece — without a doubt,” Matt Gorman, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the official campaign arm for House Republicans, told the Washington Post of the GOP’s messaging strategy for 2018. “The law is getting more popular both in public and internal polls. Voters don’t need to take our word for it; they can see the companies announcing bonuses and perks for themselves.”
Instead, if things go south in Tuesday’s race, Republican operatives have already started planting the seeds for a blame game that doesn’t come near the GOP tax plan, grumbling about the weakness of Saccone as a candidate. The chair of Pennsylvania’s GOP called the district “Democratic.”
As much as the GOP know that the tax plan is not shaping up to be the electoral selling point they were hoping for — evidence by the sharp pivot away from that message in PA-18 — it is very likely they will continue down this path. After all, they have nothing else to run on.
It is then imperative for Democrats running all up and down the ballot, to hang this boat anchor of a disastrous bill on every Republican running. They have plenty of boat anchors around their necks already, what with Trump and his losing appeal, but they could certainly use some more.
The GOP cannot be allowed to dance around their largest legislative priority now that it is proven to be a losing message. Democratic candidates must make sure that it is symbolically emblazoned upon every Republican candidate’s forehead: that they prioritized tax cuts for the rich over serving the American people. It must be left as lesson to everyone , that their Tax Sham bill was a huge mistake, both electorally, as well as in reality.
And, we already know that it is a strategy that translates to victory at the ballot box.