IN-Sen: Republicans have an expensive and nasty three-way May 8 primary to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly, and each candidate has one potentially big flaw: Wealthy businessman Mike Braun may not be a real Republican, Rep. Luke Messer may not be a real Hoosier, and Rep. Todd Rokita may be a real jerk.
We'll start with Rokita. The congressman made news earlier this month when he announced he would be skipping the April 30 debate sponsored by the Indiana Debate Commission (aka no, not that IDC) on PBS, making him the first Senate or governor in the debate's 10 year existence to duck the event. Rokita took issue with moderator Abdul Hakim-Shabazz, whom he called a "patsy" of the IDC and declared was a "never-Trumper. He was begging Kasich to primary Donald Trump. Part of what this primary is about is determining who is going to be [Trump's] best ally."
Rokita is hoping that picking a fight with the media will help him stake out his claim as the most Trumpesque candidate, but he may have gone too far. Local political tip-sheet Howey Politics writes that not one of the Republicans they've spoken to outside the Rokita camp thinks this is a good idea. Brian Howey also argued that if Rokita misses the event "that will be a multiple news-cycle story line." Howey in turn predicted that Rokita may indeed come to the debate after all if polls show a close race. Rokita himself seemed to back down a bit this week when he said that the PBS debate's "ratings are going to be so terrible as it is, maybe I will go spice it up."
This isn't the first time Rokita has drawn some headlines while sounding like a bit of a jerk. In August, Politico published a detailed memo from Rokita's office describing how he was to be chauffeured around his district. The whole thing was a bit embarrassing, and it contained incredibly detailed instructions about how to keep Rokita away from talking to too many reporters, what items to bring for him (he really likes gum and hand sanitizer), and how to drive.
It's unclear if any of this is having an effect with voters, but in a primary where the candidates are all expressing pretty much the same ideas, it could be bad if his fellow Republicans decide he's a bit of a jerk. And Rokita, who seems to have watched Trump's 2016 primary campaign closely, doesn't seem to care about making himself likable. While most candidates use their opening commercials to talk about their business success or showcase their adoring family, Rokita's first spot declared that "liberal elites" are the ones who "riot in our streets and attack our police."
Messer will be at the IDC debate, and his team put out a statement arguing that his rival is only ducking the event because he's so gaffe-prone. However, Messer has some different issues. Back in November, news broke that Messer co-owns his Indiana residence with his mother while his family now lives in the D.C. area. Messer recently went up with his second TV commercial, and it seems to be an attempt to stress his connections to Indiana without actually bringing up the attacks against him.
The spot, which Roll Call says will air at the start of the NCAA’s men’s basketball tournament, features the candidate on a basketball court and speaking to the camera as boys each take a ball from him. Messer tells the audience that he's "lucky enough to coach my son's undefeated team," as his son urges him not to jinx it. Messer uses that to transition to how he understands teamwork, and will support Trump. Roll Call says this spot is “backed by a cable and broadcast TV and digital buy in the mid six-figures.” Messer's first commercial featured his daughters praising him as an ardent conservative, which is a very different media strategy than Rokita's dystopian opening ad.
Braun has been advertising for months, and he's largely played up his business background and conservative views. However, he attracted some unfavorable news coverage of his own in December when the Associated Press reported that he'd consistently voted in the Democratic primary until 2012. Indiana has no party registration, but his voting habits got him classified as a "Hard Democrat" in the Republican National Committee's voter database.
Braun, who was elected to the state House as a Republican in 2014, denies he was ever a Democrat, and his campaign insists he was only voting in their primary because he lived in a blue county and wanted to vote for the most conservative Democrat. That didn't appease Rokita, who sarcastically welcomed him to the party at a February debate (an event that apparently met Rokita's standards for attendance).
Polling has been scare here, but Howey writes that "internal polling by two of the campaigns finds the trio of candidates tightly clustered. Messer and Rokita have a long and personal rivalry dating back years, and if they attack one another while leaving Braun alone, the businessman could win in two months. However, that's a whole lot less likely to happen if they're convinced that Braun is also a threat who needs to be attacked. Donnelly at least will be hoping that his eventual rival takes more than a few wounds that don't heal before November.