State Rep. Jeanne Ives’ campaign against Gov. Bruce Rauner in Tuesday's GOP primary still feels unlikely to succeed, but two very different groups are acting like it's more competitive than it seems to be. The Ives campaign is out with a poll showing her down just 7 points, while the Democratic Governors Association has launched an ad ostensibly attacking her, but really intended to make her more appealing to conservatives so she can beat Rauner.
We'll start with the second part first. The DGA is airing two last-minute TV spots, one nominally "against" Ives, and the other genuinely against Rauner, backed by a reported $451,000 buy. The Ives ad begins with a narrator asking, "When is a conservative leader too conservative for Illinois?" then answers by saying Ives has been “rated as one of the most conservative” legislators in the state. The voiceover continues:
"Ives wants to ban abortions. She has an 'A' rating from the NRA, pushing to arm teachers and stop new gun laws. And on immigration, Ives marches in lock-step with President Trump, trying to eliminate protections for undocumented immigrants."
If this were a general election, that's exactly the type of ad the Democrats really would run against Ives to try and beat her. However, this ad—much like those that Claire McCaskill famously ran against Todd Akin—is designed to make Ives sound awesome to conservative viewers. After all, there aren't too many GOP primary voters who would be repelled by a candidate with an A-rating from the NRA, or by someone who sides with Trump on immigration.
The ad against Rauner, by contrast, is intended to do the exact opposite. The narrator bemoans how under Rauner "our state has the worst unemployment rate in the Midwest—and the worst credit rating of any state in the country," messaging intended to hurt him with voters across the political spectrum.
The DGA's meddling is probably the best news Ives' campaign has gotten all year, which began with the conservative pollster We Ask America releasing a poll that gave Rauner a 65-21 lead. Ives' campaign has now unveiled a survey from the firm Ogden & Fry showing Rauner up just 42-35—better, sure, but still an admission she's down without much time left.
In any case, we'll know on Tuesday if the DGA's intervention is enough to shift things. Rauner is not popular after three chaotic years in this blue state, but the billionaire governor still has enough money to put up a serious and nasty fight. However, if the ultra-conservative Ives somehow emerges with the GOP nod, the race could turn into a near-certain Democratic pickup. Watch this racist and transphobic ad from Ives herself if you're wondering if she has much of a shot in a state that Clinton carried 55-38.
And whether Rauner thinks Ives can beat him or not, he still is running ads to weaken her before Tuesday. Rauner is out with yet another spot tying Ives to state House Speaker Mike Madigan, the Democrat that Illinois Republicans love to attack more than any other. The commercial repeatedly features a quick clip of Ives saying "we'll work with Mike Madigan" and the narrator incredulously asks how Ives could want to work with someone so wretched as him. Yet even if Rauner does hang on, polling shows him down against any of his potential Democratic opponents.
