Illinois voters go to the polls on Tuesday for their party primaries, and we have a lot in store. The main event will be the contest for governor, where Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner is trying to fend off a far-right challenge, and where three major Democrats are competing to face him. There are also a number of competitive House primaries including in the 3rd District, where Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski is facing his first serious challenge in a decade. It only takes a simple plurality to win nomination in Illinois.
The polls close at 8 PM ET (7 PM local time). Our guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below, and join us at Daily Kos Elections that night for our liveblog of all of the races on the docket. You can also follow us on Twitter, where we'll be live-tweeting the results.
● IL-Gov (R): Republican Bruce Rauner unseated unpopular Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn 50-46 in 2014 in this very blue state, but Rauner has had a bumpy tenure of his own. What little polling there is shows that Rauner is very unpopular himself and will face a tough challenge getting re-elected in November, but he has more immediate worries. After Rauner signed a law allowing public funding for abortions earlier this year, several prominent state Republicans angrily withdrew their endorsements, and state Rep. Jeanne Ives announced that she would challenge the governor.
Ives quickly made it clear exactly what kind of campaign she would run when she aired a racist and transphobic ad against Rauner in early February. However, the extremely wealthy Rauner has used his considerable resources to go after his opponent by tying her to state House Speaker Mike Madigan, who is the most hated Democrat in GOP politics. Ives has also employed the very same line of attack against Rauner.
A few early polls showed Rauner easily defeating Ives, and while she received a $2.5 million infusion from conservative mega donor Richard Uihlein in early February, her cashflow has since largely dried up. However, national Democrats unexpectedly intervened in the final days of the race with TV ads ostensibly attacking Ives as a loyal ally of Trump and the NRA who is “too conservative for Illinois,” which is exactly the kind of messaging that’s designed to make Republicans vote for Ives on Tuesday. An Ives win or even a close loss would be a very big surprise, but Team Blue’s move is a sign that they think it’s possible.
● IL-Gov (D): The Democratic primary for governor has also become a nasty affair. The three major candidates are venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire who comes from a well-known Chicago family and is considerably wealthier than even Rauner; developer Chris Kennedy, the son of the late Robert F. Kennedy; and state Sen. Daniel Biss. Pritzker, who has given his own campaign close to $70 million so far, began airing ads all the way back in May and has never let up. Pritzker also has the support of a number of major unions, as well as both of Illinois’s U.S. senators.
There haven’t been many recent polls, but those we’ve seen have shown Pritzker well ahead, with Biss and Kennedy effectively tied for second place. Pritzker has used his resources to attack both his opponents in the final weeks of the campaign, and they don’t have anything resembling the type of resources he has. However, Rauner has also spent months airing commercials against Pritzker, whom he seems to consider his likely opponent. Pritzker also got some bad press in February when audio was released of him chatting with disgraced former governor Rod Blagovich and advising him on who might be the "least offensive" African American candidate to appoint to Barack Obama's Senate seat—a topic Rauner also featured in many ads.
Both Biss and Kennedy have been framing themselves as an alternative to the political establishment. Biss has argued that, unlike the wealthy Kennedy and the extremely wealthy Pritzker, he’s a candidate from and for the middle class. Kennedy, who has spent the least of the three Democrats, has touted his famous family, and he’s counting on a strong showing with black voters to win. A Pritzker loss would be a big surprise, but with so little data, we can’t rule it out.
● IL-03 (D) (55-40 Clinton, 56-43 Obama): Rep. Dan Lipinski has been one of the most conservative Democrats in the House for much of his career, and he remains as hostile to abortion rights as ever. Several national progressive groups, including Daily Kos, are supporting businesswoman Marie Newman's primary bid against him in this Chicago-area seat. Lipinski, the son of former Rep. Bill Lipinski, has plenty of allies in the Chicago Democratic machine, and there are still many Democratic primary voters here who share his views, so he won't be easy to take down. However, there are no other Democrats on the ballot, so Newman won't need to worry about another candidate taking some crucial anti-Lipinski votes from her.
Newman's campaign looked very much like a longshot at the beginning of the year, but she picked up momentum in January when Illinois Reps. Jan Schakowsky and Luis Gutierrez endorsed her over their colleague. Newman soon earned endorsements from EMILY's List and two major unions, though building trade unions remain on Lipinski's side. In the final weeks of the race, Newman also won the support of Bernie Sanders, who carried this seat by about 10 points in the 2016 presidential primary, and influential Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle.
Outside groups have also been spending heavily for both sides. A pro-Lipinski group called United for Progress has received much of its funding from the aggressively centrist group No Labels and billionaire mega-donor and Jerry Reinsdorf, who is chairman of both the Chicago White Sox and the Chicago Bulls, and they've aired commercials attacking Newman's business background. Lipinski also has received help from Susan B. Anthony List, a group normally devoted to electing anti-choice Republicans. On the other side, a group called Citizens for Illinois that's backed by NARAL has spent over $1 million against Lipinski. The only recent poll we've seen was a late February survey for NARAL that showed Lipinski up 43-41, numbers that neither Lipinski nor his allies sought to contradict.
● IL-04 (D) (82-13 Clinton, 81-17 Obama): Veteran Democratic Rep. Luis Gutierrez announced just one week before the candidate filing deadline that he wouldn't seek re-election, and he immediately endorsed Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia to succeed him. Garcia, who soon picked up an endorsement from Bernie Sanders as well, is well-known from his 2015 campaign for mayor of Chicago. While Garcia lost to incumbent Rahm Emanuel 56-44, he performed very well in this area. A number of other local politicians also entered the race, but facing a series of polls showing Garcia with a dominant lead, they almost all dropped out and backed the frontrunner.
Sol Flores, who serves as executive director of a community group that helps local homeless families, did stay in the contest, and made waves with a powerful ad on her tough childhood, describing how she learned to protect herself from a "man living with us would come into my bedroom when I was asleep and lift my nightgown." While it would be a massive upset if Flores defeats Garcia, we likely haven't heard the last from her no matter what transpires Tuesday.
● IL-06 (D) (50-43 Clinton, 53-45 Romney): This ancestrally red seat in the Chicago suburbs swung hard against Trump, and several Democrats are competing to take on GOP Rep. Peter Roskam. Kelly Mazeski, a member of the Barrington Hills Planning Commission, has the support of EMILY's List. Mazeski, who has done some self-funding, dramatically outspent her rivals from Jan. 1 to Feb. 28 (what the FEC calls the "pre-primary period"), deploying $514,000 to clean energy businessman Sean Casten's $191,000. However, Casten, who has self-funded much of his campaign, had considerably more money in the bank for the final weeks of the contest. Mazeski has run ads about how she survived breast cancer, while Casten has highlighted his work combatting global warming.
There are a few other Democrats to watch. Attorney Amanda Howland, who lost to Roskam 59-41 in 2016, hasn't spent much or picked up many major endorsements, but she may benefit from some residual name recognition thanks to her prior bid. Naperville City Councilor Becky Anderson and Carole Cheney, a former chief of staff to neighboring Rep. Bill Foster, are also in the hunt. Roskam will be a very tough opponent for whoever emerges on Tuesday, but national Democrats are likely to target him.
● IL-10 (R) (62-33 Clinton, 58-41 Obama): Last cycle, Democrat Brad Schneider unseated Republican Bob Dold in a very expensive race by a 53-47 margin. This area, which includes the affluent suburbs north of Chicago, has been friendly to Republicans down the ballot even while voting for Democratic presidential candidates, but it may now be a few bridges too far for Team Red with Donald Trump in the White House. However, there's still been an expensive race to take on Schneider. Physician Sapan Shah, who has done some self-funding, outspent former Republican Jewish Coalition regional director Jeremy Wynes $319,000 to $124,000 in the pre-primary period. Technical consultant Doug Bennett, who is the most socially conservative of the trio, spent just $40,000.
● IL-13 (D) (50-44 Trump, 48.9-48.6 Romney): Last cycle, GOP Rep. Rodney Davis only faced a little-known Democratic challenger, but four noteworthy candidates are competing to take him on this time in a seat that includes part of Springfield, Bloomington, and Champaign. Betsy Londrigan, a fundraising consultant who has previously worked for Sen. Dick Durbin, has the support of the senator and EMILY's List. Attorney Erik Jones, a former policy director for state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, likewise has his old boss's backing. Retired Navy intelligence officer Jonathan Ebel and perennial candidate David Gill round out the field.
Health care has emerged as a major theme in the primary: Londrigan has run ads talking about how her son almost died from a rare infection, while Jones's commercials have highlighted how his wife's high-risk pregnancy put her in emergency surgery. Londrigan outspent Jones $276,000 to $189,000 during the pre-primary period, while Jones spent just $71,000. But while Gill has barely raised or spent anything, he may have enough name recognition to get through. Gill, a physician, had run for a previous (and more conservative) version of this seat three times before upsetting the establishment favorite in the 2012 primary and only narrowly lost to Davis that fall. Gill then tried running as an independent in 2016, but he failed to make the ballot.
● IL-14 (D) (49-45 Trump, 54-44 Romney): Democrats had never shown much interest in targeting GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren until this exurban Chicago seat shifted against Trump. Hultgren isn't a top Democratic target yet, but a few Democrats are hoping that they can put this seat into play if 2018 continues to shape up as a good year.
Nurse Lauren Underwood, a former senior adviser at the U.S. Health and Human Services Department, picked up an endorsement from EMILY's List in January. Meanwhile, Matt Brolley, the president of the village of Montgomery, has the backing of neighboring Rep. Bill Foster (who lost to Hultgren in 2010 before returning to Congress in 2012 in a different district). High school teacher Victor Swanson, the brother of comedian Andy Richter, is also in the hunt. None of the three Democrats raised much money during 2017, but Underwood's fundraising noticeably picked up during the first two months of the new year. Underwood outspent Brolley $97,000 to $42,000 during the pre-primary period, while Swanson spent almost nothing.
● IL-AG (D): Attorney General Lisa Madigan shocked the political world last year when she decided not to seek a fifth term, but it took little time for the now-crowded Democratic field to develop. The two frontrunners appear to be Pat Quinn, who served as governor from 2009 until he was ousted by Bruce Rauner 50-46 in 2014, and state Sen. Sen. Kwame Raoul, who has been mentioned as a rising star for years.
Quinn was unpopular during much of his governorship, and he had a particularly turbulent relationship with labor, but he does have universal name recognition, which could help him in a crowded contest. Two recent polls showed Quinn and Raoul far ahead of the rest of the field, but the surveys disagreed on who was ahead. The Democratic nominee will be the clear favorite in November against either Republican, attorney Erika Harold or DuPage County Board member Gary Grasso.
