The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● IL-Gov: This is different. Venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, who is the frontrunner in the March 20 Democratic primary to take on GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner, began running negative TV spots against state Sen. Daniel Biss a few weeks ago, but until now he'd left businessman Chris Kennedy alone. On Wednesday, however, Pritzker rolled out a new spot arguing that Kennedy voted to raise tuition five times as chair of the board of the University of Illinois, while backing pay raises for administrators and coaches.
Campaign Action
It's not clear what Pritzker's campaign is doing, but it's very possible that they're afraid that if they damage Biss too much while leaving Kennedy unscathed, too many Biss voters will flock to Kennedy. Indeed, the three polls we've seen in the last week (one from Pritzker, one from Biss, and one from Southern Illinois University) all agree on two things: Pritzker is taking less than 40 percent of the vote, and Biss and Kennedy are just about tied for second place. With time running out, it does make sense if Pritzker is using his limitless resources (he's already invested $56 million of his own money, and he can afford to throw down a whole lot more) to damage both of his foes to make sure one of them can't pick up too much support over the next few weeks.
Pritzker is also out with a positive ad that highlights that the Chicago Sun-Times has endorsed him.
Senate
● MO-Sen, MO-02: While GOP Rep. Ann Wagner refused to rule out a late Senate bid weeks ago, she filed on Wednesday to seek re-election to the House. Missouri's deadline isn't until March 27, so she has a few weeks left if she's still considering switching races. With Trump and the NRSC closing ranks behind Attorney General Josh Hawley, however, we'd be very surprised if Wagner jumps in the Senate primary.
● MS-Sen: Democrats unexpectedly got a second noteworthy candidate this week when venture capitalist Howard Sherman jumped in. No, he isn't the product of California Democrats and 2012 rivals Howard Berman and Brad Sherman being fused together in a transporter accident. Sherman is instead the husband of actress Sela Ward, and the two founded Hope Village for Children, which helps children in need, in Meridian. Sherman will face state House Minority Leader David Baria, whom national Democrats recruited, in the June primary. We'll have more to say about this race in a future Digest after candidate filing ends on Thursday.
● ND-Sen: The NRSC is out with a poll from the Tarrance Group giving Rep. Kevin Cramer a 49-44 lead over Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. The poll was taken Feb. 18-20, which was days after Cramer announced he would finally run for the Senate, so it's possible he was benefiting from some favorable publicity. This is the first poll we've seen of the Heitkamp vs. Cramer match (other than a recent survey from the very unreliable Gravis Marketing), and given how rarely North Dakota gets polled (only a handful of surveys were released even during the very tight 2012 race), it may be the last poll we see for a long time to come.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: Mason-Dixon takes an early look at Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards re-election prospects next year. The survey gives Edwards a strong 55-31 approval rating, but finds him locked in tight races against two of the three Republicans they tested.
Edwards leads Sen. John Kennedy just 45-44, and the Democrat has a small 46-43 edge over Rep. Steve Scalise, the House majority whip. But against Rep. Ralph Abraham, Edwards leads by a wide 51-28 margin, though much of Abraham's problem may just be weak name recognition this early in the campaign. Abraham has said he'll decide on running during the first half of 2018, and he it looks like he already has the support of Sen. Bill Cassidy and Attorney General Jeff Landry. Kennedy has also expressed interest, while Scalise sounds unlikely to run, though he declined to rule it out.
● MD-Gov: Mason-Dixon looks at the June Democratic primary to take on GOP Gov. Larry Hogan, and their results are about what we'd expect based on other 2018 polls here. Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker leads Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz 26-15, while former NAACP head Ben Jealous takes 14. The rest of the field each takes only 4 percent of the vote or less, though some of them have the resources to get their names out.
● NY-Gov: State GOP leaders never liked Joel Giambra, a former Erie County executive who recently left his job at a lobbying group to run. Giambra said in December that he could run as an independent if party leaders didn't get behind him, and he announced he was doing just that on Thursday.
State Sen. John DeFrancisco and former state Housing Commissioner Joseph Holland are still seeking the GOP nod, but the person party power players really seem to want is Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro. Molinaro announced a few months ago that he'd stay out of the race, but his office said Thursday that he was reconsidering. Team Red isn't optimistic that they can take down Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, but they hope that the ongoing corruption trial of Joseph Percoco, a former top aide to the governor, will give them more of an opening. At the very least, Republicans want a strong candidate who can turn out conservatives for competitive races down the ballot.
● OK-Gov: Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb, who is arguably the frontrunner in the June GOP primary for this open seat, is up with his first TV ad. Lamb begins by saying that, when he was a Secret Service agent, he took an oath "to step in the line of fire to protect the president, our republic, and all that America stands for," and the candidate is shown with what looks like a sniper's laser sight trained on his chest. Lamb then pledges to "fight just as hard to turn Oklahoma around." The campaign did not reveal the size of the buy. Businessman Kevin Stitt, attorney Gary Richardson, and a group backing Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett began airing ads months ago. There will be an August runoff if no one takes a majority of the vote.
House
● CA-39: Wealthy businessman Andy Thorburn, who is one of many Democrats seeking this competitive open seat, is up with his first TV spot. The narrator begins by saying the candidate "was jailed for a month for fighting to stop education cuts and to raise wages for classroom teachers," and a copy of a contemporary New York Times article is shown on screen with the headline "16 Are Convicted in Newark Strike." (The strike was in New Jersey in 1970.) The narrator then says that Thorburn went from bankrupt to successful in business, and pledges he'll push progressive policies in Congress to help working people and improve education. The Los Angeles Times' Christine Mai-Duc says the commercial is part of a six-figure cable TV buy.
● MN-08: On Thursday, state Rep. Jason Metsa announced that he would seek the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Rick Nolan. Metsa also said that he would seek the party endorsement at the April convention, though he didn't commit to dropping out of the race if someone else received it. Last cycle, Metsa was elected to his third term 61-39 as his seat was swinging from 62-36 Obama to 48-45 Trump, so he may have some crossover appeal in a seat that moved from 52-46 Obama to 54-39 Trump. The local media has described Metsa as a close Nolan ally, and Jeff Anderson, who serves as Nolan's district director, announced earlier this week that he would support Metsa rather than run himself.
But Metsa is far from the only Democrat, nor even the only Nolan ally, who is running here. Former state Rep. Joe Radinovich, who was the congressman's campaign manager during his tight 2016 election, is also in. Radinovich recently unveiled endorsements from several local elected officials, which could boost his efforts to win the party endorsement next month. Former Duluth TV anchor Michelle Lee also confirmed late last month that she was running. Also in the hunt are North Branch Mayor Kirsten Kennedy, who was Nolan's guest to the recent State of the Union, and former FBI analyst Leah Phifer, who says she'll drop out if she doesn't win the party endorsement. The primary will be in August.
● NC-02: Candidate filing closed on Wednesday for North Carolina's May 8 primaries, and the state has a list of candidates available here. Note that there will be a runoff on July 17 for any contests where no one takes more than 30 percent of the vote (until this year, candidates needed to take more than 40 percent to avert a runoff). Since all the primaries we'll be watching have no more than three candidates running, however, all of these nominations will be settled in May. But as always, there are all sorts of caveats to watch out for as each state's filing deadline passes, which we round up here.
GOP. Rep. George Holding has never needed to worry about Democratic opposition, but this year may be different. Holdings' seat, which includes Raleigh's eastern and southern suburbs, moved from 56-43 Romney to 53-44 Trump, and Team Blue hopes that Holding could be vulnerable in a wave year. Holding doesn't seem to be worried, and he only had $386,000 in the bank at the end of the year.
Tech executive Ken Romley has been seeking the Democratic nomination for months, and thanks to some considerable self-funding, he ended 2017 with a $304,000 war chest. Former state Rep. Linda Coleman is also in, and she likely begins with more name recognition than Romley. Coleman was the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2012, and she lost a very tight race to Republican Dan Forest 50.1-49.9. Coleman sought a rematch in 2016, but lost by a wider 52-45. However, Coleman's opening fundraising quarter wasn't good, and she ended 2017 with just $20,000 in the bank. Veteran Wendy May, who would be the first openly transgender member of Congress, is also in, but she hasn't reported raising anything.
● NC-03: Twelve-term Republican Rep. Walter Jones has been one of the biggest thorns in the ass for the GOP leadership over the last decade. You don't even need to take our word for it: Jones himself said three years ago that he "like[s] to be a thorn in people's ass." In this Congress alone, Jones voted against the House version of Trumpcare and against the tax bill, arguing that they were fiscally irresponsible. That may not be such a great argument in the age of Trump, and Jones faces a primary challenge from Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey, who has already begun running ads arguing that the congressman sided with Pelosi over Trump on taxes.
Jones has few allies in Washington, so unsurprisingly, he's never been a strong fundraiser. Dacey already held a $224,000 to $100,000 cash-on-hand edge over the incumbent at the end of 2017, and that gap may grow. However, Jones has survived tough scrapes in this coastal seat before, and he may have enough support to pull off another win. It may also help Jones that Marine veteran Phil Law, whom he beat 65-20 in 2016, is running again. While Law again has little money or outside support, he may be able to take enough anti-Jones votes away from Dacey to allow the congressman to secure renomination with a plurality. Trump won this seat 61-37, and no one filed to run for Team Blue.
● NC-09: Last cycle, Rep. Robert Pittenger won a three-way GOP primary with pastor Mark Harris by just a 35.0-34.5 margin, and Harris is seeking a rematch. The good news for Pittenger is that two of the problems that dragged him down in 2016 may not be factors this time. Back then, Pittenger was running in a district that was 60 percent new to him, and he was facing an FBI and IRS investigation related to his old real estate company over loans he made to his 2012 congressional campaign. However, Pittenger now represents 100 percent of the seat he's seeking, and the investigation ended in May without any charges.
But Harris is still hoping Pittenger is weak, and he does have the resources to give him a tough campaign. Harris outraised the incumbent for much of 2017, though Pittenger picked up the pace in the final months. Still, Pittenger only had a $287,000 to $222,000 cash-on-hand edge over Harris, not a great showing. Pittenger has already begun running ads trying to define Harris, who backed Ted Cruz in the 2016 presidential primary, as a Trump hater.
This seat, which stretches from southern Charlotte east to Fayettville, backed Trump 54-43, but it's another North Carolina seat Democrats hope could be gettable in a good year. National Democrats are excited about Dan McCready, who served in Iraq as a Marine and went on to start a business that finances North Carolina solar farms. McCready, who faces little primary opposition, has been a very strong fundraiser, and he ended 2017 with $931,000 in the bank.
● NC-13: Last cycle, gun range owner Ted Budd won a 17-way GOP primary for an open seat with just 20 percent of the vote, and he had little trouble winning the general election in a contest that was ignored by both national parties. But Democrats have taken an interest in this seat, which stretches from Charlotte's northern suburbs into Greensboro, and the party has largely consolidated behind philanthropist and former lawyer Kathy Manning. Manning, who faces only a little known primary opponent, had a very strong opening fundraising quarter, and she led Budd $522,000 to $300,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of the year. This district went from 53-46 Romney to 53-44 Trump.
● NH-01: The September Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is already very crowded, and there still may be room for one more. WMUR reports that Naomi Andrews, who serves as Shea-Porter's chief of staff and was her campaign manager in past races, is considering. John DiStaso writes that Andrews had set the idea of running aside until Levi Sanders jumped in this week, and that Shea-Porter would support her.
● PA-05: State Rep. Margo Davidson has expressed interest in joining the Democratic primary for this new 63-34 Clinton seat, and well… Google her name. One of the very first items that comes up is a Philadelphia Inquirer story titled, "Police: State Rep. Margo Davidson did 'hit and run.'”
The actual story is even worse: In the space of a month this year, Davidson was charged with crashing her taxpayer-funded car twice while driving while her license was suspended. Police say that in January, Davidson rear-ended another vehicle and drove away before troopers arrived and "failed to provide all of the required documents at the scene of a crash." Weeks later, Davidson was cited for driving with entering traffic unsafely in a crash with a state vehicle, though she insists this crash wasn't her fault. Even before this, Davidson wasn't especially popular at home. In 2016, Davidson won renomination just 54-46 against a former ally who took issue with the incumbent's votes for abortion restrictions and school vouchers.
● TX-02: Prominent GOP donor Kathaleen Wall has already invested just shy of $6 million of her own money into her campaign for this open suburban Houston seat, and she's up with yet another TV spot ahead of the March 6 primary. The commercial stars Gov. Greg Abbott, who calls Wall "a behind the scenes mover and shaker in Houston politics for years." In this era where almost every candidate is tripping over each other to portray themselves as the real enemy of the establishment whether they actually are or not, it's quite jarring to hear someone embracing a label like that. Wall faces several opponents on Tuesday, but none of them have come close to matching her spending.
● TX-06: With less than a week to go before the GOP primary to succeed Rep. Joe Barton (who is retiring under, shall we say, less than ideal circumstances), Sen. Ted Cruz has thrown his support behind Ron Wright, the former Tarrant County tax assessor. Wright, who is also Barton's former chief of staff, has long been viewed as the congressman's heir apparent, and he's probably the frontrunner on Tuesday.
However, while Wright has the support of a number of local elected officials, including Arlington Mayor Jeff Williams and Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley (who holds a position akin to county executive), he's also trying to appeal to anti-establishment voters. In addition to sporting an endorsement from Cruz, Wright has pledged to join the nihilist Freedom Caucus if he wins. Wright's main opponent on Tuesday is Jake Ellzey, a Navy vet who serves on the Texas Veterans Commission, who is also trying to seize the anti-establishment mantle for himself, though he has the backing of Secretary of Energy and former Gov. Rick Perry.
What no one has in this race, however, is much money. During the first 45 days of the year, Wright and Ellzey spent about $35,000 each, which is pretty underwhelming for a competitive congressional primary. Somewhat unexpectedly, the biggest spender—albeit not by much—was someone we hadn't taken much note of. Shannon Dubberly, an IT project manager and former defense contractor, spent $45,000 during the pre-primary period, though he doesn't seem to have much outside support. If no one takes a majority on Tuesday, there will be a runoff in May. Trump won this seat 54-42.
● VA-10: The June Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock got a little smaller this week when Deep Sran, the founder of the Loudoun School for the Gifted, dropped out. Sran only had $93,000 in the bank at the end of December, far less than what his primary opponents had to spend.
Grab Bag
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