The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● HI-Gov: David Ige became governor of Hawaii four years ago after he decisively ousted incumbent Neil Abercrombie in the Democratic primary, but according to a new Mason-Dixon survey for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, he’s likely to have the same thing happen to him in August. The pollster has Rep. Colleen Hanabusa demolishing Ige by a 47-27 margin; former state Sen. Clayton Hee, who recently joined the race, takes another 11 percent. However, it doesn’t seem that the GOP will benefit much even if Ige somehow wins. The poll finds both Ige and Hanabusa cruising to victory over their prospective Republican opponents, former state Sen. John Carroll and state Rep. Andria Tupola. Ige leads Carroll 52-27, and that’s the smallest margin-of-victory for the Democrats in any of the four hypothetical matches.
Campaign Action
Hawaii has tended to be a difficult state to poll, and this is the first publicly available survey of the primary this cycle. However, as we’ve written before, Ige has every reason to worry that Hanabusa would do to him what he did to Abercrombie in 2014. While Ige won 67-31 back then, his victory had everything to do with how Abercrombie had alienated just about every important major Democratic constituency in the state. Ige began and ended that campaign as a low-profile state senator, but major stakeholders backed him in order to get rid of Abercrombie. However, these same players had little actual loyalty to the new governor, leaving him without much of a base of support now that he needs it.
And like Abercrombie, Ige has made some blunders during his governorship, though Ige’s worst mistake was much higher-profile than anything his predecessor ever botched: the false ballistic missile warning that the state sent out in January. The governor drew intense public criticism—and became the target of multiple investigations—as he tried to explain why it took him so long to inform the public that Hawaii wasn’t actually under attack. But Ige’s problems long predated the missile debacle, as he’d struggled to implement his agenda throughout his term, and Hanabusa had already spent months portraying the governor as a weak leader.
Despite all this, Mason-Dixon finds that Ige’s problem isn’t that he’s broadly disliked as Abercrombie was, it’s that primary voters still don’t have a firm opinion of him after over three years in the governor’s office. The poll gives Ige a 29-27 favorable rating, while a 41 percent plurality rate him neutrally. Those numbers aren’t all that different than Hee’s 20-24 score, with an identical 41 percent giving him a neutral rating (though another 15 percent say they don’t recognize Hee, compared to just 3 who say the same about their governor). But Hanabusa, who represents most of Honolulu, posts a solid 47-21 favorable rating, helping to explain her strong standing in the head-to-heads.
Senate
● FL-Sen: Republican Gov. Rick Scott is planning a "major announcement" for April 9, which all signs point to being the launch of his long-expected campaign for Senate against Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson.
● IN-Sen: Former state Rep. Mike Braun's latest ad takes aim at both of his rivals in the May 8 GOP primary. Braun's spot shows him with two cardboard cutouts of Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, while the ad features him asking voters if they can "tell the difference" between the two. He hits them both for voting for trade deals, adding to the national debt, and being career politicians.
● OH-Sen, OH-Gov: SurveyUSA is out with a new poll that gives us a rare glimpse at Ohio's elections for Senate and governor. Their Senate portion has Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading by a daunting 52-38 when they tested hypothetical general election match ups with both Republican Rep. Jim Renacci and investment banker Mike Gibbons. The poll gives Brown a stellar 55 percent approval rating with just 27 percent disapproving, which seems like it may be a little too good to be true in a state Trump won by 51-43; however, Brown would likely be very tough to beat if that approval rating is accurate.
On the other hand, their gubernatorial portion isn't as sanguine for Democrats. Republican state Attorney General Mike DeWine beats former financial watchdog Richard Cordray by 47-39 in a hypothetical general election, while he trounces former Rep. Dennis Kucinich by 51-38. However, SurveyUSA didn't release numbers on each candidate's name recognition, so there's no way of telling if DeWine's advantage is largely a function of his higher visibility as the state's two-term attorney general and as a former U.S. senator.
The pollster also looked at each party's primary for governor. While the GOP contest between DeWine and Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor has gotten very nasty over the last week, DeWine crushes her by a 50-18 spread. Things are much more competitive on the Democratic side, where Cordray and Kucinich tie 21-21 while state Sen. Joe Schiavoni is in third with just 5 percent. It’s quite possible that Kucinich's early standing is simply a function of existing name recognition and that he’ll have less room to grow than Cordray, who has the state party establishment behind him.
Meanwhile, SurveyUSA also tested the Republican primary for Senate, but the numbers revealed a huge 58 percent of voters are still undecided. Among those who expressed a preference, Renacci edged out Gibbons by 21-10 while no other candidate topped 5 percent. Both candidates are wealthy, but Renacci has the support of the state party, and national Republicans also very much prefer him to Gibbons.
Gubernatorial
● ID-Gov: Longtime Boise School Board member A.J. Balukoff recently debuted a new ad in the Democratic primary for governor. The spot features shots of Balukoff with his family and on the campaign trail, while he promises to fight for affordable health care and defend Idaho's public lands from those who would sell them off.
● IL-Gov: The first poll of Illinois' gubernatorial race since last week's primary shows GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner in dire shape. The Ogden & Fry survey finds Democrat J.B. Pritzker crushing Rauner by a 46-28 margin and gives the governor an abysmal an awful 32 percent approval rating and 68 percent disapproval score. Pritzker's 46 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable ratings aren't exactly great after many months of attack ads both by Rauner and his former primary opponents, but he looks positively rosy compared to the guy he'll face in November. And these numbers can't be dismissed as some kind of crazy outlier, since they're similar to two polls from last month, one from PPP and the other from Southern Illinois University.
The only question is who was this latest poll conducted for? Well, we can take a guess. Before the primary, Ogden & Fry conducted a poll for ultraconservative state Rep. Jeanne Ives, who very nearly beat Rauner for the GOP nomination. The first person to tweet these new results was right-wing radio host Dan Proft, who was once a Rauner supporter but, after a huge falling out with the governor, became a big Ives backer. Proft has continued to attack Rauner since the primary, so it's easy to believe that he's behind this poll, as just one more F.U. to a man he so openly loathes.
● ME-Gov: On Monday, term-limited state Senate President Mike Thibodeau announced that he was dropping out of the June GOP primary for governor. That will be happy news to Gov. Paul LePage, who said in January that, while he wasn't taking sides in the race, he was opposing Thibodeau.
● NV-Gov: On behalf of Chris Giunchigliani, Expedition Strategies takes a look at the June Democratic primary and gives her a narrow 31-27 edge over fellow Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak. Giunchigliani posts a 42-9 favorable rating, not very different than Sisolak's 46-14 score.
House
● IA-03: In an unexpected development, Democrats on Iowa's 3rd District Central Committee voted on Monday to place businesswoman Theresa Greenfield on the June primary ballot, despite the fact that the chair of the local committee warned last week that such a move could expose the party to a potential lawsuit from other candidates. But as Iowa Starting Line's Pat Rynard notes, Greenfield still faces more legal hurdles before her spot on the ballot is assured—a fact that seems to have swayed committee members, some of whom said they prefer to allow the process to play out in full.
The next step for Greenfield involves a review of this decision by a three-person panel consisting of Secretary of State Paul Pate, State Auditor Mary Mosiman, and Attorney General Tom Miller, which appears set to meet on Tuesday. However, as Rynard suggests, this trio may not issue any sort of ruling unless someone files a challenge to Greenfield's candidacy. And the matter, being so unusual, may even lie outside the panel's scope. (Miller, the only Democrat among the three members, had previously refused to issue an opinion in his capacity as attorney general on the applicability of the law 3rd District Democrats are relying on.)
But even if this panel does decide to address the controversy and rules in Greenfield's favor, a lawsuit—either on behalf of another Democratic candidate or GOP Rep. David Young—remains possible. And it certainly sounds like one Democrat is preparing a challenge: In response to the committee's decision, businesswoman Cindy Axne's campaign charged that the move "opens up the nominee and the entire Democratic ticket to charges of election fraud and backroom deals" and said it was "reviewing all of our options." Axne is the only other woman running for the Democratic nomination (the other two candidates are insurance company owner Eddie Mauro and political consultant Pete D'Alessandro), so she might stand the most to gain by Greenfield's absence.
● IN-06: We've gone a full month without a crazy ad from wealthy businessman Jonathan Lamb, but he's come to a rescue with a new 15-second offering. This spot, which reportedly is airing on TV, parodies the Reagan-era "This Is Your Brain on Drugs" commercials, and … you know what, just watch it. This time, the Republican candidate does not make weird jokes about his last name. Lamb faces businessman Greg Pence, the older brother of Vice President Mike Pence, in the May primary for this safely red seat, and we can't say we feel good about his chances.
● MN-08, MN-Gov: GOP state House Speaker Kurt Daudt never seemed very enthusiastic about a run for Congress, and he unsurprisingly told Forum News Service that he wouldn't run. And while Daudt didn't quite say he wouldn't run for governor, he said it was unlikely he would get in, especially if former Gov. Tim Pawlenty launches his widely anticipated campaign.
● NJ-02: On Saturday, wealthy engineer Hirsh Singh won the Atlantic County GOP's all-important organization line. Atlantic makes up about 40 percent of the electorate in the June primary, nearly twice as much as the next largest county, so this is a very good get for Singh. Somers Point Councilman James Toto, who had the organization line in small Salem County, responded by dropping out of the primary and backing Singh.
A number of other Republicans are running to succeed retiring Rep. Frank LoBiondo in this competitive South Jersey seat, but Singh now looks like the clear primary frontrunner. Singh reportedly plans to contribute $2 million to his campaign, which appealed to party leaders who feel pessimistic about their chances against state Sen. Jeff Van Drew, the likely Democratic nominee.
But while LoBiondo had a moderate image and Van Drew is one of the more conservative Democrats in the legislature, Singh has a very different profile. Insider NJ writes that Singh used his speech at the Atlantic County convention to cast himself as a pro-Trump conservative and to declare that Democrats "have a stranglehold on too many minorities because they come here and hear we're racist."
● NJ-07: Longtime environmental activist David Pringle has announced that he's dropping out of the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Leonard Lance.
● NY-25: On Monday, state Assembly Majority Leader Joe Morelle launched a bid to succeed Louise Slaughter, a fellow Democrat who died earlier this month. Morelle entered the race with the support of Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren, Monroe County Clerk Adam Bello, and Assemblyman Harry Bronson, who had all been mentioned as possible candidates, as well as Slaughter's daughter and son-in-law. Rochester Deputy Mayor Cedric Alexander also announced he wouldn't run, though he didn't make an endorsement.
Morelle looks like the early frontrunner in the June primary for this Rochester seat, but he doesn't have the field to himself. On Monday, Brighton Town Board member Robin Wilt also announced she was in. Brighton has a population of only about 36,000, so Wilt probably won't begin with much name recognition.
Rochester City School Board president Van White also says he's considering, while former TV journalist Rachel Barnhart says she's circulating petitions while she decides whether or not to run. Barnhart has run for office twice and lost to two of Morelle's backers. She took on Bronson in the 2016 Assembly primary and lost 55-45, and she took a distant third place in the 2017 primary for mayor of Rochester with just 16 percent of the vote, well behind Warren's 62 percent.
On the GOP side, state Sen. Joseph Robach announced that he wouldn't run for this 56-39 Clinton seat. The Monroe County GOP is backing neurosurgeon James Maxwell, who entered the race before Slaughter died.
Legislative
● Special Elections: It’s been a couple of weeks since we've had a proper D-vs.-R legislative special, but Johnny Longtorso hasn't forgotten:
Alabama HD-21: This is an open Republican seat west of Huntsville. It was left vacant by the death of Jim Patterson. The Democratic nominee is Terry Jones, a high school teacher. Jones ran for this seat in 2014 and lost 67-33. The Republican nominee is Rex Reynolds, a former Huntsville police chief.
Daily Kos Elections has not yet calculated presidential election results for Alabama's legislative districts, due to serious difficulties with the state's data (including court-ordered redistricting, changes in precincts, and a simple lack of necessary data in many cases). However, Aaron Booth says he has managed to compile some estimates showing that HD-21 went 58-36 for Donald Trump in 2016 and 66-33 for Mitt Romney in 2012, but backed Doug Jones 55-42 in the 2017 Senate special election. Terry Jones says his campaign has been energized by Doug Jones' huge win, and even Reynolds says he's "taking this very serious" as a result.
Grab Bag
● Demographics: Pew Research is out with another installment of their regular investigations into party identification, one of the best indicators over time of how people sorts themselves into the political parties. While the topline number is good news (50 Dem, 42 GOP when leaners are pushed), David Jarman takes a look under the hood at how Democratic advantages are even bigger among women, college-educated people, and millennials.
