Michigan Legislative Project #9: State House Pick-Up Chances, Total Rundown on Only Pick-Ups and Our Chances for Taking the Chamber
State House District 17 (Northern Monroe County, Sumpter Township in Wayne County, Rockwood Township & the City of Flat Rock which are right on the border of Wayne & Monroe Counties)
Incumbent – Joe Bellino (R-Monroe)
Declared Democratic Candidates: Monroe City Clerk-Treasurer and former Hospital Foundation Development officer Michelle Degraer Lavoy (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Michelle-LaVoy-162881447247371/ )
Michelle Lavoy is an exemplary candidate having served 2-3 terms as the elected Clerk-Treasurer of the city of Monroe, MI which is the heart of this district and is the wife of former State Representative Bill Lavoy (who lost in 2016 to Bellino). In addition, Bellino angered a number of people by voting for the recent bill to allow a portion of School Enhancement Millages to go to charter schools after saying he would vote no (in truth, he was the *deciding* vote for it). Michelle just got into the race (http://www.monroenews.com/news/20180220/michelle-lavoy-to-run-for-michigan-house-district-17 ) and hasn’t really had a chance to raise money while Bellino has raised almost $68,000 of which he has $65,634 on hand. Chances: Outside of the Oakland County opportunities and maybe the 62nd district this is probably our best shot at a pick-up this year and we have a lot of positives going for us.
State House District 19 (Wayne County – Principally Livonia)
Incumbent – Laura Cox (R-Livonia, eligible to run for reelection but likely to run for State Senate)
Dems Running: Laboratory Technician Laurie Pohutsky (http://www.lauriepohutskyformichigan.com) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/lauriepohutskyhd19/), Livonia School Board Member & University Official Dan Centers (http://www.dancenters.com/). Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VoteDanCenters/
Republicans running: long time Livonia City Councilman Brian Meakin just got in this month.
This district hasn’t gotten easier but Centers campaign has gotten more active and he’s been working with the State Senate campaign for Dayna Polehanki (who is awesome). Pohutsky I haven’t seen as much press on and she doesn’t necessarily have the same support. This remains a tough seat but one that is probably winnable. Fundraising wise Meakin just got in the race and has nothing to report, for the Dems: Pohutsky has $2,930 raised with $1,537 on hand, Centers has raised $35,441 with $28,458 on hand. Pohutsky has been endorsed by the Progressive Caucus of the Michigan Democratic Party while Centers has been endorsed by State Representative Kristy Pagan, the Michigan Education Association, former Livonia City Council President Maureen Miller-Brosnan, and the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters. Chances: If there was ever a chance at us winning the Livonia State Representative seat (at least since Joan Gebhardt’s close call against John Pastor in 2004) it would be now, Centers has a head start in fundraising and he appears to be getting all necessary support. This is a solid B-grade pick-up opportunity.
State House District 20 (Wayne County – Northern Canton Township, Plymouth Township, city of Plymouth, Northville)
Incumbent – Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth, running for re-election)
Dems Running: Logistics Manager and Army veteran Gary Schlak (https://www.facebook.com/GarySchlackForStateRep/ Campaign Website: https://www.garyschlack.com )
Teacher Matt Koleszar (Campaign site: https://www.mattformichigan.org/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MattforMichigan )
Update: We do have a primary now as high school teacher Matt Koleszar has jumped in. This isn’t looking the greatest as Gary doesn’t have a ton of cash on hand and Koleszar just got in in December. The district still has potential though as it is the kind of well educated suburb that Dems have done well in and Noble has only served one term so far (and he was elected with in a relatively unimpressive 53.5-46.5 manner).
District 24 (Macomb County – Harrison Township, portions of Clinton Township & Macomb Township)
Incumbent – Steve Marino (R – Running for Re-election)
Democratic Candidate Running: a Laura Winn has filed a campaign committee. If it’s who I’m thinking of, she’s a fairly successful entrepreneur/businesswoman type with some roots in the district.
This isn’t the best of districts as Harrison Township is pretty obnoxiously Republican, but we’ve had success in Clinton Township in the past. And if Laura Winn is who I’m thinking of she has pretty strong potential to be a good candidate. I need to confirm that Winn is who I think she is but it’s probably a middling pick-up opportunity with the presence of Clinton & Macomb Townships.
House District 30 (Macomb County – City of Utica, Parts of Sterling Heights & Shelby Township)
Incumbent: Diana Farrington (R – Utica, Running for Reelection)
Democratic Candidates Running: Wisam Naoum, Entrepreneur, University of Michigan Educated Attorney, Michigan Democratic Party Finance Committee member, and Chaldean community activist. Campaign Website: https://www.wisamformichigan.com/
Farrington won a 54-46 election against automotive employee (and son of a former Sterling Heights Mayor) Michael Notte (who had a residency complaint filed and a complaint against one of his signs, both dismissed but bad luck in the campaign). Now she has drawn an excellent candidate in Naoum who is a fairly accomplished man considering he’s fairly young, who in addition to his work in business and politics is also a volunteer attorney with Code Legal Aid where he helped fight the Trump deportations (https://www.detroitjournalism.org/2017/06/23/protesters-gather-front-detroit-federal-building-calling-end-chaldean-deportations/ ). I really recommend viewing the campaign introduction video on the front page of his webpage as it really sums up the American Dream and what it’s like from an immigrant’s perspective (his parents immigrated from Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war). The district is kind of a mixed bag as Sterling Heights turned against the party *hard* in 2016, though it does have a significant Chaldean community which feels very attacked by the Trump administration. This isn’t among the very top pick-up opportunities but it is right below that given the strength of the candidate and the flexible nature of the district. Naoum just got in the race and thus hasn’t filed any fundraising information and Farrington has about $51,500.
House District 38 (Oakland County – South Lyon, Lyon Township, Novi, the Oakland County portion of Northville, what I believe to be a portion of Walled Lake)
Incumbent – Kathy Crawford (running for reelection)
Democratic Candidates Running: Real Estate Businessman/former IT Professional Joseph Petrillo (Campaign Website: https://electjoepetrillo.com/ , Facebook Site: https://www.facebook.com/electjoepetrillo/ ).
Feeling pretty good about the prior races discussed? Well, this race isn’t one of those. We’ve got a combination of a popular incumbent (Crawford has deep roots in the community, especially working with senior & retired groups…and guess what groups are the most likely to vote?), a challenger without money and he doesn’t seem to be doing events to raise some, *and* a district made up of some of the most conservative parts of Oakland County. However, we do have a candidate and Novi is at least trending our way, so it’s not completely terrible. Current Cash Standing: Petrillo CoH $1,721, Crawford $11,630.
House District 39 (Oakland County – Wixom, most of Commerce Township, about half of West Bloomfield Township)
Incumbent: Klint Kesto (R-I think Commerce Township, running for MI-11 Congressional Seat along with half the Republican pols in District)
Democratic Candidates running: Entrepreneur & 2016 Walled Lake School Board candidate (and earlier was a Farmington Hills City Council Candidate) Johnny Oram (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/voteforjohnny/ )
Law Firm Employee, Campaign Manager of Andy Meisner’s Successful 2012 Campaign for Oakland County Treasurer, and board member of Emerge Michigan (https://emergemi.ngpvanhost.com/ , an organization that tries to get women candidates trained and running in Michigan, though it’s a state branch of a larger organization) Jennifer Suidan Campaign Website: https://voteforsuidan.com/
Republicans Running: Attorney & former Assistant Oakland County Prosecutor Marsha Kosmatka, small business owner & Michigan Republican Party Coalitions Vice Chair Kevin Tatulyan, Attorney Ryan Berman
It looks like there is a primary set for the Dems side, which is a good thing as Oram simply doesn’t look like a good candidate for various reasons (couple of prior losing races for office, no fundraising reports at all) and Suidan has the background to be a good candidate (and I’ll mention that her employer is a bit of a power player in Michigan politics). The district isn’t the best but West Bloomfield is Dem and I’m not sure about Wixom. Also, Suidan’s been a friend to progressive causes for awhile now https://pridesource.com/article/jennifer-suidan-a-powerful-ally-and-good-friend/ so it’d be a good thing to support her. The republican side is featuring active campaigns from all three candidates and I’m not going to call that nomination (though Kosmatka has over $20,000 on hand and Berman has $15,380 with Tatulyan having almost no money). This is a better bet than the 38th as we have a better candidate on paper and it’s an open seat, however, this isn’t a top tier pick-up yet but bears watching.
House District 40 (Oakland County- Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills and nearby townships)
Incumbent: Mike McCrady (R-Bloomfield Hills, not eligible for re-election)
Dems Running: former State Department employee & former John Dingell Congressional intern Mari Manoogian (http://mariformi.com/) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/MariforMichigan/)
Licensed Nutritionist, gun safety advocate, and 2016 Nominee Nicole Bedi (https://votebedi.com/) Facebook: (https://www.facebook.com/votebedi/)
Republicans Running: CPA Paul Taros, Business Consultant/Republican Activist (and member of various non-profit & Mayoral appointed boards) Malissa Bossardet, Wine Distribution Company VP & Youth Vice Chairman for the Michigan Republican Party Mike Banerian, and Marine Corp veteran Joseph Zane
Well, I’ve found out the Republican candidates running and the “establishment” favorite for the Republicans is probably Banerian though Bossardet and Taros both appear to have enough fundraising to keep pace. As for the Dems, while Bedi lost last time, I’d say she’s a better choice than Manoogian for the simple reason that, until recently Manoogian was living in Washington working for the State Department until returning home last year and Bedi has been active in the district for longer (though as Manoogian’s father, as a long time union official has roots in the district). Though I should say that both Dem candidates can do the job, we can feel comfortable voting for either, and both appear to be fundraising well enough to compete in the race. Money Race: Manoogian $50,012 total, $42,778.81 on hand, Bedi $29,293 total with $21,022.70 on hand. Republicans: Taros $50,000 total with $49,910 on hand (entirely in the form of self-funding), Banerian $33,315 total with $23,006 on hand, Bossardet $26,715 total with $22,065 on hand. This is one of the best pick-up opportunities in the state given the bluing of Oakland County, the success Dems have had in well-educated suburbs, and the quality of both candidates.
State House District 41 (Oakland County – Troy, Clawson)
Incumbent: Martin Howrylak (R – not eligible to run for re-election)
Democratic Candidates Declared: Padma Kuppa (D-Troy), IT Analyst, Troy Planning Commission Member, Member of the Michigan Roundtable on Diversity, and at least at one time, Member of the Hindu American Foundation’s Executive Council (Campaign site: https://www.electpadmakuppa.com/ Facebook Candidate Page: https://www.facebook.com/electpadmakuppa/ ).
Republican Candidates Running: Oakland County Commissioner Doug Tietz, Attorney & Troy City Councilman Ethan Baker
It appears that the city of Troy is divided between here and the 40th district. This is a pretty good opening and Kuppa is a very good candidate who appears to be getting some support. After the 40th district this is actually probably the number 2 opportunity given the rising Dem strength in Oakland County, the success in other well-educated suburbs and (on-paper) Kuppa’s strength as a candidate. Fundraising: Kuppa $15,451 CoH (from 10/15/17 until the end of the year, pretty impressive). Tietz: $30,073, Baker: $24,420.
State House District 44 (Oakland County – Highland Township, Milford Township, Springfield Township, White Lake Township, and part of Waterford Township)
Incumbent: Jim Runestad (R – Running for Re-election)
Dems having filed paperwork: Maintenance worker & activist Steven White Jr., and non-profit consultant Laura Dodd (Campaign Website: https://www.dodd2018.com/ ).
This district is kind of an enigma, being a mash-up of various townships in Oakland County (and the biggest republicans I know live in Milford). I hadn’t spent a ton of time on this district as White didn’t look like a strong candidate, at all. I am, however, intrigued by Dodd, who has just entered the race and the one person to comment on the race in #7 spoke very highly of her. This is one I’ll keep an eye on, but don’t get your hopes up as this part of Oakland County is among the more Republican.
House District 62 (Calhoun County – Battle Creek, Albion, Springfield, and Bedford, Pennfield, Convis, Lee, Clarence, Sheridan, and Albion Townships)
Incumbent: John Bizon (R – Running State Senate in the 19th District)
Democratic Candidates Running: Ex-Calhoun County Commissioner & 2016 Nominee Jim Haadsma (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Haadsma4House/) declared for the race November 30 (which wasn’t a huge surprise as he had been raising money during the year).
Republicans running: Pennfield Township Supervisor Dave Morgan (who I think ran for the office back in 2010, as he has a candidate committee registered in 2009)
This is among the top pick-up opportunities for Michigan Dems as Bizon was re-elected by over Haadsma by only 200 votes and Haadsma is giving it another shot. That, along with Bizon apparently running for State Senate, makes this a top drawer State House pick-up opportunity, though there is a Republican candidate in Township Supervisor Morgan. Fundraising: Haadsma CoH $13,182. Morgan: $2,185 (though he only really started fundraising for this race in the last quarter).
State House District 70 (Montcalm & Gratiot Counties – Most of Montcalm including Greenville, and Alma & St. Louis MI and northern townships)
Incumbent: James Lower (R – Running for Re-Election)
Democratic Candidate Running: Teacher Kresta Train (website: http://www.train4mi.org/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Train4MI/ ).
This is not a great district; however, it has been winnable on occasion in the past (most notably the Montcalm County portion of the district was represented by Dem Mike Huckleberry in the 2008-2010 term). And we do have a candidate. Fundraising: Train, nothing reported, Lower $10,480. This one looks like among the longer of longshots.
Michigan State House District 71 (Eaton County save the SE portion that’s in District 68)
Incumbent: Tom Barrett (running for State Senate)
Democratic Candidates Running: eLearning Specialist & Consultant Beth Bowen (Website: https://www.votebethbowen.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/bowenMI71/ ), Marketing Company Co-Owner/Vice President of the Waverly School Board Angela Witwer (Website: http://www.voteforangela.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AngelaKWitwer/ ), Campaign volunteer & Bernie Sanders Activist Michael Natoli
Republicans Running: Clarisa Trevino, Consulting Company Owner Chris Stewart, Golf Course Owner (and former Bar Owner) Chuck Cascarilla, and 1st term Eaton County Commissioner Christine E Barnes
This race is on the radar ever since Barrett got elected the first time in 2014 with 148 votes (yep, 2014 was that kind of election for Michigan Dems), though he got re-elected a tad stronger in 2016 with 54%. Having said that, we have two really nice candidates running as Bowen is running an active campaign with education issues as a cornerstone (while also discussing environmental, infrastructure, and healthcare) while Witwer is already holding elected office and also has a full range of issues (notably education also). This isn’t quite as high a pick-up as the Oakland County races but it’s probably behind only the 40th, 41st, and 62nd as a pick-up opportunity given the relative strength of our candidate, the closeness of races in the past, and the fact that it is an open seat. Fundraising: Witwer $20,301 total with $20,223.84 on hand, Beth Bowen $7,975 total with $4,858 on hand. For the Republicans Cascarilla has raised $38,450 total with $32,745 on hand while Barnes has raised a disappointing $3,485 total with just $1,619 on hand (the other two candidates have reported nothing). If I had to guess I’d say it’s Witwer vs. Cascarilla for the General.
State House District 77 (Kent County – Wyoming & Byron Township)
Incumbent: Tommy Brann (R – Running for Re-election), owner of Brann’s restaurant chain
Challenger: Activist, Master’s Student, and recent Loss Prevention Manager Robert Van Kirk (Website: https://www.vankirkformi.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/robert.vankirk.gov/ )
I don’t dislike Van Kirk, but this is the more Republican portion of Kent County, Van Kirk doesn’t have much money, and Brann is an incumbent with a lot of money (Brann’s is a chain of Michigan restaurant’s going at least as far East as the Northville/Livonia border. However, it is a candidate running a campaign and issue wise he’s not bad. Fundraising: Van Kirk $1,832 CoH, Brann: $57,229. This isn’t as much a longshot as the 70th but it is still not a top tier pick-up due to the cash differential and the relative strength of the incumbent.
State House District 89 (Ottawa County – Grand Haven, Ferrysburg and surrounding townships, a map is at http://gophouse.org/representatives/westmi/lilly/district-map/ )
Incumbent: Jim Lilly (R-Park Township, running for re-election)
Democratic Candidate Running: retired electrical contractor & Desert Storm Veteran Jerry Sias, Candidate Webpage: http://www.jerrysiasmi89th.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pg/bluecollar89/about/?ref=page_internal )
This isn’t a good district, according to Ballotopedia Lilly won election in 2016 with 61.1% of the vote. Why list it? I have to say, it’s because I love the candidate: Jerry Sias worked his way forward from electrical apprentice, to foreman, to owning his own contracting company (Affordable Electric) after serving in Desert Storm. What caused him to retire? A rollover accident in which his pelvis & femur where crushed. While it did force him to retire he is alive and walking. If *anyone* had the option of opting out, not running, etc. I’d say it was Jerry. Instead, He’s going into the race, trying to defy the odds in a district that is a tough get. I’ve detailed before why I think Jerry is a heck of a guy, but now we get to the bad part, fundraising: Sias $22.44 CoH, Lilly $55,049. As much as I like Jerry, fundraising will have to change fast for this to not go next to the 70st district among my longest shots.
House District 91 (Muskegon County – Cities of Whitehall, Norton Shores, Roosevelt Park, Montague and numerous Townships, Ottawa County – Moorland, Ravenna, and Casnovia Townships)
Incumbent: Holly Hughes (not eligible to seek re-election)
Challenger: Teacher, Writer, Environmental Activist, and Whitehall City Councilwoman Tanya Cabala (Webiste: http://www.tanyacabala.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Cabalafor91st/ )
Roosevelt Park City Councilman & former radio personality Andy O’Riley (Campaign Website: https://andyoriley.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/andyoformuskegon91st/ )
Republicans Running: Greg Vanwoerkom, a district direct for Congressman Bill Huizenga, has a candidate committee and is raising not bad money for a State Rep race in Michigan.
Holton Township Supervisor Alan Jager, who ran as an independent for the seat in 2014 (and ran a campaign that included giving away an AR-15 assault weapon http://www.mlive.com/news/muskegon/index.ssf/2014/09/see_which_state_rep_candidate.html
This race is an area that actually is considered a swing seat (and truth be told Hughes had lost the seat in 2012 before regaining it in 2014), and its an open seat. While I’ve talked about Cabela in the past, there is a primary as a different city councilman, Andy O’Riley, is running and he may have some name recognition from when he was an on-air radio talent (he’s also the proprietor of the Positively Muskegon blog). I don’t actually dislike O’Reilly, but I will say that this is one of the primaries that I like one candidate (Cabela) more than the other, and that is in no way criticism (and both seem like people we could comfortably vote for). Fundraising update: Tanya Cabela managed to raise $15,022 of which she has $13,714.89 in Cash on Hand, Andy O’Riley has raised $6,910 total with $5,907.97 in Cash on Hand (Vanwoerkom has raised $34,100 total with CoH of $29,635) and Jager has a candidate committee pending. Update on chances (nothing to really add to the analysis): This is one of our best chances for a pick-up in Western Michigan as we’ve won the seat as recently as 2012, we have two potentially strong candidates, it’s an open seat, and the overall trend.
House District 97 (Clare, Gladwin, and portions of Osceola & Arenac Counties including the cities of Evart, Harrison, Standish, and Au Gres)
Incumbent: Jason Wentworth (R-Clare, running for Re-election)
Democratic Candidate: retired social worker & activist Celia Young-Wenkel (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Celia-Young-Wenkel-97th-District-Michigan-State-House-140625690071581/info )
Celia Young-Wenkel may have some connection to Woman of Michigan Action Network (WOMAN) (a websearch for her name brought up a story with them) so she could have some friends in the activist branch of the party. Fundraising update: Wentworth currently has $24,758.99 on hand (out of $41,055 raised) while Young-Wenkel, who was in the race for only 20 days before the December cut-off managed to raised $2,112.57 total with an even $2,000 in CoH (which isn’t bad for 20 days…). Chances? Not the best as this particular area of Michigan is among the more Republican, though Wenkel’s background as an activist and that she’s running a decently active campaign makes this better than some races.
House District 98 (Midland County, The city of Penconning and surrounding Townships in Bay County)
Incumbent: Gary Glenn (R-Williams Township, Running for State Senate)
Challenger: non-profit executive and organizer with Women of Michigan Action Network (WOMAN) Sarah Schulz (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/sarah4mi/)
Republican Running: Annette Glenn, wife of Gary Glenn
Not the worst district or anything, not the best either but Schulz is an organizer and a non-profit exec so she’s eminently qualified for the position and I like her as a candidate. We are getting ever closer to having actual *good* candidates in all district and Sarah’s one of them. Really, really like her. It should be noted that Annette Glenn has an MPA and used to run campaigns (during Glenn’s recent cancer treatment she drove her husband back and forth from Lansing so he wouldn’t miss any votes). Both candidates have gotten into the race too recently to have any fundraising info publicly available. Update: Chances: This isn’t the best chance in the world, but Bay County can and does elect Democrats so that, combined with it being an open seat, and Schultz’s experiences as an organizer does give us a better shot than we’d normally have.
House District 105 (Northern Lower Peninsula: Charlevoix, Antrim, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Otsego counties)
Incumbent: Triston Cole (R-Mancelona)
Dems Running: Marketing Manager Melissa Fruge (Website: https://www.melissafruge.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/melissaforchange/ )
Fruge is good on the issues and is running at least a somewhat active campaign (she seemed to draw a pretty good crowd when she spoke to the Charlevoix Dems last year based on her Facebook). I also like her focus on environmental & education issues. Considering we don’t have candidates in good opportunities its worth mentioning and promoting good candidates in less than good opportunities. Fundraising: Fruge $3,033 Coh, Cole $23,184. This is one of the relative longshots with a decent chance at pulling it off.
State House District 108 (the very bottom of the Upper Penninsula – Delta, Menominee, and Dickinson Counties containing the cities of Iron Mountain, Norway, and Escanaba)
Incumbent: Beau Lafave (R – Running for Reelection)
Democratic Challenger: Mental Health Professional & UAW Local leader Bob Romps (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/bobrompsforstaterepresentative/ )
This is the only seat in the UP that is currently held by a Republican (though Scott Dianda’s 110th will be a tough hold this year) and Lafave was elected in 2016. Romps has been active in his community and his family owns the area restaurant The Stonehouse, his wife also has a business that works with providing products to cancer patients. Fundraising: Romps just entered, Lafave $22,033 CoH. Chances: Not terrible as the Upper Penninsula can elect Democrats, especially State Legislatively, and Romps is an active member of his community and should have some recognition in the Delta County portion at least. This isn’t the best of all possible areas as its more Republican than District 109 and it is against an incumbent but not bad at first glance (though, admittedly I know the least of the UP among areas of Michigan).
Chances at picking up the State House
Currently the breakdown of the State House is 63 Republican to 46 Democrats (with the safe Dem seat in the 68th district vacant, so count it as 47 tentatively). We will need to pick-up 9 seats to take control of the state house (from 47), with 8 pick-ups giving us a tie (the last time this happened was the 93-94 Session, which was Curtis Hertzel Sr’s first tenure as Speaker). Our chances of picking up at least a tie aren’t bad as the open seats in pick-up opportunities are as follows: 19 (Laura Cox, running for State Senate), 39-41, 62, 71, 91, and 98. Out of those we have very good chances in the 19th, 40th and 41st (especially these), 62nd, 71st, and 91st. If we win 5 out of 6 of these (Livonia is a tough nut to crack but I think Dan Centers might do it, but it still leaves the district the odd one out) that gets us more than halfway there. And we have a good chance at that as we have as we have seemingly good candidates established in the district who have the funds to at least compete.
That brings us to our Republican incumbent seats with good chances at the 17th (Michelle Lavoy makes it as good a chance as the best open seats) and the 39th based on the changes to the district and the potential strength of the candidate. There is also the 20th district which I’m not entirely sure on yet as both candidates are running strongly but I don’t know as much about Koleszar and Schlak hadn’t made much progress. Then we have the seats in Macomb County and Northern Michigan/The Upper Penninsula and we have a strong candidate in the 30th district (really, really like Wisam Naoum), a potentially strong candidate in the 24th district, and we also have not bad candidates in the 97th, 98th, 105th and 108th in Northern Michigan. I’m also not mentioning a few of the stragglers in terms of pick-up opportunities (based off closeness in 2016) that don’t have a candidate yet in the 61st district and the 99th (which was a fairly close 54.6 to 45.4 race, and was even closer in 2014).
We don’t have a lock on picking up the State House, however, this does show the benefits to running strong candidates in all districts as we have a really good shot at picking up 7 seats due to open seats and Bellino angering constituents in the 17th. That means that we need just two of the 9 other seats that we are running hard in to flip to take control of the chamber (and only 1 to tie). Are we there yet? No, but despite the gerrymander we are really, really close to it.