Welcome to the 2018 Election Year everyone! The Midterms officially kick off this Tuesday when the State of Texas becomes the first to hold their primaries for the fall elections. It should be noted that these are preliminary primaries, with races in which the leading candidate does not getting over 50% sending the top 2 to a runoff in May. Texas is, obviously, a very large state, but is also interesting politically. After almost a century of being a Dixiecrat bastion, it had become a ruby red state of the conservative south by the early 2000s. But in the 2016 election, the margin of victory for Donald Trump in Texas was just 9 points, despite a close race nationally, and Hillary Clinton received nearly the same amount of the vote in Texas as she did in Ohio, a traditional bellwether. With Texas being a rapidly diversifying and well educated state, many are wondering if Texas will become a swing state in the near future. 2018 could be a big test, and it starts with Tuesday’s primary. This fall, Texas will contain at least two House races which I consider to be tossups, two more that I consider competitive, with several others possible, along with potentially the first competitive Senate election in that state in over a generation. With so much intrigue here, let’s break it down:
US Senate Election in Texas:
- Democratic candidates: Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, Serma Hernandez, Edward Kimbrough
- Republican candidates: Inc. Ted Cruz, Stefano de Stefano, Bruce Jacobson Jr., Mary Miller, Geraldine Sam
The two winners are obvious: Ted Cruz will be renominated by the GOP and O’Rourke, a U.S. Rep. of Texas’s 16th Congressional District, will be nominated by the Democrats. The opposing candidates are largely random people, as Cruz and O’Rourke have received the overwhelming majority of their party’s endorsements. This will be the most fascinating race in Texas in the fall, with Cruz being a well-known national name and O’Rourke generating lots of enthusiasm and raising a ton of money. He seems like the candidate I’d bet on to turn Texas blue, but we won’t know until the fall. Tuesday will simply be a crowning of each party’s fighter before the fall’s main event.
Texas’s 7th Congressional District:
- Democratic candidates: Alex Triantaphyllis, Jason Westin, Ivan Sanchez, Laura Moser, Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, James Cargas, Joshua Butler
- Republican candidates: Inc. John Culberson, Edward Ziegler
This is the race the nation is watching. Democrats have long viewed Culberson as one of the most beatable incumbents in the country after Hillary Clinton won his Houston area seat in the 2016 election and it’s a race I have rated as a tossup. Culberson hasn’t run a great campaign but will still easily win the nomination. But on the Democratic side, the fight for the right to take on Culberson has turned into an all-out brawl. The DCCC dropped a bunch of opposition research about author and activist Laura Moser, who they believe will be unable to beat Culberson in a general election due to carpetbagging and campaign finance allegation issues. This has infuriated some grassroots progressives and Moser supporters. Others have taken issue with the allegations in question, with a black activist saying Moser’s past writings “reeked of white privilege”. Meanwhile, there are plenty of other Democratic challengers in the field, any of which are seen as probaby more favorable for the DCCC. These include Alex Triantaphyllis, who is a non-profit director and the fundraising leader in the race, Lizzie Fletcher, a lawyer and the #2 fundraiser, and cancer doctor Jason Westin, who is 4th in fundraising. A recent poll by a GOP firm found that Fletcher is leading the pack with 28%, followed by Moser with 17%, Triantaphyllis at 14%, and Westin at 13%. It’s unclear how reputable this firm is, but if that were the case, it would set up a run-off between Fletcher and Moser which would be even nastier.
A quick glance at the candidates finds that Fletcher got the endorsement of EMILY’S List, which also angered the Moser crowd, along with the endorsement from Kirsten Gillibrand’s Super PAC. Westin has received the endorsements from the Houston Chronicle and a number of science groups. Triantaphyllis’ endorsements have mostly been from local people, while Moser has reeled in the more far-left crowd, including The Intercept. I’m not sure how it is going to go down on Tuesday, but there probably will be a runoff, so this drama could drag on even longer.
Texas’s 21st Congressional District:
- Democratic candidates: Derrick Crowe, Joseph Kopser, Elliott McFadden, Mary Wilson
- Republican candidates: 18 people
This seat is located in the San Antonio area before stretching out into rural territory, giving it an R+10 PVI, but one that Trump only won by 10. It’s a seat I have listed as Likely R, thanks to the retirement of incumbent Lamar Smith, and is a bit of a longshot as a Democratic pickup, but one that is on the radar. The Democrats have 4 candidates, beginning with the overall fundraising leader, engineer Joseph Kopser. He figures to be the clear favorite for the nomination, with over $300,000 in the bank, while the other Democratic candidates have less than $50,000. They are small businessman Derrick Crowe, mathematician Mary Wilson, and random dude Elliott McFadden.
The Republican side is what is known as a clusterf***, with 18 people running for the nomination, virtually ensuring a runoff. The main contenders start with former US Rep. Francisco Canseco, who served in Congress from 2011-2013, though there are some warning signs there, as his campaign owes in debt almost as much as it has on hand. Next up is State Rep. Jason Isaac, who has gotten a lot of state level endorsements, as well as the endorsement of Karl Rove. Isaac is running as the conservative Washington outsider, a trope which GOP voters love to devour. However, the fundraising leaders are actually outside of these two, in the form of former CIA Officer William Negley and ex-Ted Cruz Chief of Staff Chip Roy. Negley is regarded as the dark horse candidate, while Roy is running to be “the next Ted Cruz”. Great. Roy has the endorsements of most federal level Texas Republicans, including Cruz and dancing extraordinaire Rick Perry, along with the Club for Growth. Last but not least, we have businessman Matt McCall who seems like a distant longshot at this point.
If I had to put money on who advances to the GOP runoff, I’d probably go with Roy and Isaac, given that they have endorsements, but any of the big 4 wouldn’t surprise me.
Texas’s 23rd Congressional District:
- Democratic Candidates: Judy Canales, Gina Ortiz-Jones, Jay Hullings, Rick Treviño, Angie Villescaz
- Republican Candidates: Inc. Will Hurd, Alma Arredondo-Lynch
This massive district that covers most of the southwest territory bordering the Rio Grande from Piedras Negras to the outskirts of El Paso is Texas’s swingiest district and won that Clinton won in 2016. That makes it a key tossup and a battleground for House control. Represented by popular Incumbent Will Hurd, Democrats will need to nominate the right candidate for this race. First off, it should be noted that Hurd is going to win the GOP nomination, even though there is a token challenger. On the Democratic side, it’s really a battle between federal prosecutor Jay Hullings and Air Force veteran Gina Ortiz-Jones. Ortiz-Jones outraised Hullings in Q4, but Hullings enters the primary with slightly more in his war chest. Hullings has the endorsements of most county-level politicians, along with ex-HUD secretary Julian Castro, the AFL-CIO, End Citizens United, and the Blue Dog Coalition. Ortiz-Jones has the support of EMILY’s List, Vote Vets, and Wendy Davis. As you can probably tell by the endorsements, Ortiz-Jones is a tad to the left of Hullings but it’s really splitting hairs. Either candidate would be good enough to win the general election in my mind, and it’s hard to predict how this one will turn out.
Texas’s 32nd Congressional District:
- Democratic Candidates: Ed Meier, Colin Allred, Lillian Salerno, Brett Shipp, George Rodriguez, Ron Marshall, Todd Maternowski
- Republican Candidates: Inc. Pete Sessions, Paul Brown
Pete Sessions is a longtime incumbent of this Dallas-area seat that swung violently to Clinton, who won it by 3 points in 2016. Yet, Democrats left Sessions unopposed in the 2016 House Election here. That won’t be the case in 2018, with a handful of names running for the Democrats, starting with fundraising leader and Obama administration employee Ed Meier, who leads the pack by quite a bit in the cash department. Next up is attorney and ex-Tennessee Titans linebacker Colin Allred, followed by USDA official Lillian Salerno. The remainder of the names are not fundraising nearly as well and I would consider longshots at this point. In the endorsement primary, Meier has a handful of local names, along with a ragtag group of national people, including Ken Salazar and Khizr Khan. Allred has the endorsements of Wendy Davis, Julian Castro, and the Dallas Morning News, while Salerno’s main two are Gloria Steinem and Kirsten Gillibrand. It’s tough to tell who is going to advance to a likely runoff, but it’s probably going to be two of those particular three. Meanwhile, Sessions is going to defeat a Some Dude challenger, Paul Brown, and set up a close race in the fall, which I currently rate as Lean R.
Governor of Texas:
- Democratic Candidates: Adrian Ocegueda, Andrew White, Cedric Davis, Grady Yarbrough, James Jolly Clark, Jeffrey Payne, Joe Mumbach, Lupe Valdez, Tom Wakely
- Republican Candidates: Inc. Greg Abbott, Barbara Krueger
Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott remains a very tough out, as his poll numbers are very solid and he will easily win the Republican primary. But it’s the Democratic side that is a mess, with no clear frontrunner the way there was in 2014 with Wendy Davis. The main two contenders seem to be Andrew White, entrepreneur and son of the second-to-last Democratic Texas Governor Mark White, and Lupe Valdez, former Dallas County Sheriff. Hospice chaplain Tom Wakely and financial analyst Adrian Ocegueda are the clear second runners in this primary. A runoff seems likely here, with Valdez and White being the main vote-getters, as seen in this poll and this one.
Lieutenant Governor of Texas:
- Democratic Candidates: Mike Collier, Michael Cooper
- Republican Candidates: Inc. Dan Patrick, Scott Milder
Incumbent Dan Patrick, not the sports talk show host, won the Lt. Gov. job in 2014 by beating then-incumbent David Dewhurst in the primary runoff. This time around, he’s only facing Scott Milder, a dude who’s mostly worked in the media business, and I expect him to be renominated without a runoff. On the Democratic side, oil company financial guy Mike Collier is likely to win the nomination, as he’s facing Michael Cooper, a Some Dude. Not a whole lot of intrigue here and I think both should get majorities and set up an intriguing race in the fall.
Attorney General of Texas:
- Democratic Candidates: Justin Nelson
- Republican Candidates: Inc. Ken Paxton
Nothing to see here. Lawyer Justin Nelson is going to be the Democrat going after incumbent Ken Paxton in the fall and I think he’s got a shot to win. But with no opposition to either in the primary, this is certainly not a race to watch right now.
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Final general thoughts and how about that turnout?:
Primaries are simply just primaries, and that is always important to remember. They aren’t necessarily predictive of general elections, but they do play a crucial role if a party nominates the wrong person (see: Moore, Roy). But outside of the TX-07 race, perhaps the most interesting thing I’ll be watching is how overall turnout is in the Democratic and Republican primaries. Primary turnout doesn’t have perfect correlation to general election turnout (though there is some legit evidence), and you can say that the side with the more interesting primaries will have higher turnout in the primary, but overall it’s pretty indicative enthusiasm. Much the way that special elections are good at telling which side is more engaged and fired up, primaries can do the same. For example, back in June 2017, when tons more Democrats voted in the Virginia primaries than Republicans did, it foreshadowed the enthusiasm that would power Democrats to landslide wins in that state in November. And something is happening in Texas in terms of early voting for this primary. The Democratic early voting share was larger than that of Republicans, while GOP primary turnout compared to past years is way, way down. So simply I will be watching to see if this trend continues in terms of Election Day voting. And so that just about does it, thanks for reading!