The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
● Texas: The Lone Star State held its primaries Tuesday. You can find the results here. We'll have a comprehensive rundown in our next Digest.
Leading Off
● TX-16, TX-29: Texas has never elected a Latina to Congress, but that's going to change this year. On Tuesday, former El Paso County Judge Veronica Escobar claimed the Democratic nomination for the 16th District in the El Paso area. In the 29th District in Houston, state Sen. Sylvia Garcia also won Team Blue's primary decisively. The 16th backed Clinton 68-27 and the 29th supported her 71-25, so there's no doubt that Escobar and Garcia are headed to the House.
Campaign Action
Both women pulled off clear victories in very expensive contests. Escobar had the support of Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who is leaving to run for the Senate, as well as a number of progressive organizations, including Daily Kos. Escobar's main primary foe was former El Paso school board president Dori Fenenbock, who narrowly outspent her in the lead up to the primary.
Escobar had plenty of name recognition as county judge, a post that is akin to both a county executive and legislator. But Fenenbock, who only voted in a Democratic primary for the first time last year, received help from both GOP donors and a super PAC run by a longtime Republican operative named Carlos Sierra, who most recently worked for Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson. But while Sierra's group aired ads against Escobar, it didn't move the needle enough. With about half of precincts reporting and plenty of early votes tabulated, Escobar led Fenenbock 61-22, and the Associated Press has called the contest for her.
Over in Houston, Garcia was also outspent. Last year, after longtime Rep. Gene Green announced he would retire, Garcia quickly emerged as the frontrunner to succeed him. Garcia had run against Green for an open seat all the way back in 1992 and lost, but she backed him in his tough 1994 primary fight. Garcia was also a prominent Green supporter when he faced a credible opponent for renomination in 2016, and he joined much of the Houston Democratic establishment in supporting her this year.
Garcia scared off most prominent Democrats, but wealthy healthcare executive Tahir Javed, a longtime party donor, decided to run anyway. Javed used his wealth to flood the airwaves, and he outspent Garcia by a giant $805,000 to $208,000 in the pre-primary period. Javed also picked up an endorsement from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, which inflamed Garcia's allies.
However, Garcia always looked like the frontrunner. Garcia's state Senate district contains about 90 percent of this congressional seat, providing her with both name recognition and a pre-existing base of support. By contrast, Javed only moved to the district in December from Beaumont, which is well to the east of this Houston-based seat. Demographics likely aided Garcia, as well. This seat is almost 75 percent Hispanic, and Garcia would be the first Hispanic House member from the Houston area. (Javed, who immigrated to the United States from Pakistan, would have been the state's first Asian-American representative.) In the end, with about 70 percent of precincts in and many early votes, Garcia led Javed 65-20; the AP has also called this race.
Senate
● IN-Sen: Wealthy businessman Mike Braun, a former state representative, has been airing ads for months ahead of the May GOP primary, but he's largely stayed away from attacking his rivals. But Braun's newest spot argues that Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita "voted to fast-track Obama's trade deals" and ship jobs overseas, while Donnelly's "business hired Mexican labor." Braun concludes that "jobs won't come back until the folks we elect have our back."
● MS-Sen-B: Mississippi and national Republicans have been preparing for Sen. Thad Cochran to step down for a while, but there's still a whole lot of uncertainty about what will happen now that he's announced his resignation. What we do know is that GOP Gov. Phil Bryant will appoint a replacement, and there will be a special election on Nov. 6. All the candidates will run on one nonpartisan ballot, and if no one takes a majority, there will be a nonpartisan runoff three weeks later.
Multiple Republicans told the New York Times that Bryant is likely to appoint a senator who would run for this seat in the special. One major consideration for Bryant is to pick someone who could fend off state Sen. Chris McDaniel, a tea partier who only narrowly lost the primary to Cochran in 2014. Donald Trump and especially Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have also made it very clear they don't want McDaniel as Team Red's candidate.
If McDaniel got to Washington, he'd be a massive pain for the GOP leadership, and the former far-right radio host and neo-Confederate ally may even be weak enough to jeopardize the GOP's chances in a runoff against a Democrat. McDaniel is currently challenging GOP Sen. Roger Wicker in the regularly scheduled Senate race, but he hasn't ruled out switching to the special. McDaniel said hours after Cochran announced his resignation that, while he's still focused on running against Wicker, "all options remain on the table as we determine the best way to ensure that Mississippi elects conservatives to the United States Senate."
The big question in Washington and in Mississippi is whom Bryant will pick. McConnell and Trump tried to convince the governor to appoint himself, but Bryant definitively ruled it out on Wednesday, saying there's "something nefarious" about that kind of move. Bryant also said he doesn't want to go to Washington and wants to finish the nearly two years he has left as governor, so we can rule him out as a potential candidate. And while retiring Rep. Gregg Harper once was viewed as a likely pick, The Clarion-Ledger writes he has no interest in remaining in Congress. The paper says that "politicos seem convinced" that Bryant's top two choices for an appointment are Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, in part because they'd seem to have the best chance to beat McDaniel.
Reeves is a likely candidate for governor in 2019, and the paper says he's been "cool to the idea" of going to the Senate instead, though he hasn't closed the door. The issue with Hosemann, who might also run to replace Bryant, is that he'll turn 71 before Election Day, which isn't good if Bryant wants Mississippi to have someone who will be in the Senate for decades, like Cochran was.
However, there are plenty of other Republicans Bryant could pick. The Clarion-Ledger writes that Agriculture and Commerce Secretary Cindy Hyde-Smith has gotten plenty of attention recently. Hyde-Smith would be the first woman to ever represent Mississippi in Congress, and she has connections throughout the state, especially in McDaniel's base in the south. They also mention House Speaker Phillip Gunn, but politicos fear he doesn't have much name recognition. Gunn also has supported removing Confederate imagery from the state flag, something McDaniel would absolutely rip him to shreds for.
The Clarion-Ledger also adds that State Sen. Michael Watson could get picked to try to deter McDaniel from even switching races. Watson backed McDaniel in 2014 and the two are allies, but he's "believed to be more temperate and pragmatic than McDaniel." Of course, this is a very difficult thing to handicap: This is essentially an election with just one voter, and Bryant could appoint someone who isn't even on the radar.
Democrats will want to run a strong candidate to take advantage of any GOP chaos, and Mike Espy immediately announced it was his "strong intention to run." Espy made history in 1986 when he became the first African American to represent the state in Congress since Reconstruction, and he was Bill Clinton's first secretary of agriculture. Espy was forced out in 1994 after he was accused of taking improperly taking gifts from businesses and lobbyists, and he was indicted in 1997 for corruption. But Espy went to trial the next year and was acquitted on all 30 charges. Espy, who is now an attorney in the state, made news when he backed GOP Gov. Haley Barbour's 2007 re-election bid, but he's largely been out of the headlines otherwise.
A few other Democrats could run. National Democrats tried to recruit Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley to challenge Wicker, and when he announced he would stay out in January, the release notably began by saying it was a "statement concerning the 2018 regular United States Senate race" (emphasis ours).
National Democrats turned to state House Minority Leader David Baria afterwards, and he did kick off a bid against Wicker. Baria didn't quite rule out switching races, but he doesn't sound excited about it. Baria put out a statement Monday saying, "I have announced that I am running for the Senate seat currently held by Roger Wicker and have been humbled by the outpouring of support that I have received. I am focused on winning the race that I have entered." Venture capitalist Howard Sherman is also running against Baria, and he hasn't returned calls about his plans; there's been no word on whether state Rep. Omeria Scott is interested in shifting to the special or not.
Finally, an independent may also be eyeing this seat. On Monday, hours before Cochran made his announcement, Vicksburg Mayor George Flaggs said he would leave the Democratic Party and become an independent, and the New York Times' Jonathan Martin says he could run.
● WI-Sen: The Koch-backed Concerned Veterans for America is out with a $1.6 million buy for two additional ads (here and here) that attack Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin over the deaths of residents at a Veterans Administration facility in Tomah, Wisconsin from prescription opioids. However, just like the Kochs' prior attack ads on the same topic, this latest pair seriously distort the truth.
Both spots claim that Baldwin ignored an inspection report she received in 2014 detailing problems at Tomah, but Baldwin had already asked for investigations into opiate abuse at Tomah from the Tomah VA, the VA itself, and the VA's Office of Inspector General. Baldwin nevertheless apologized for not pursuing the problem (which the VA ultimately took responsibility for) even more aggressively, but she didn't let matters rest there. Nevertheless, it's par for the course for the Kochs to use totally bogus lines of attack like this.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine is adding another $2 million to his previous $750,000 buy for an ad that calls for new gun-safety laws in the wake of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School massacre. His campaign says the spot will run through at least March 11, although this latest ad buy will also likely include a new spot later this month. Levine is the only Democrat up on the air so far in the primary, and Florida Politics reports he has already spent more than $4 million on the airwaves.
● GA-Gov: Citizens for Georgia's Future, a group that's supporting Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle with ads in the GOP primary, is out with a new internal poll from Meeting Street Research intending to show that Cagle received a boost in support after he played a key role in punishing Delta Air Lines for dropping its partnership with the NRA. The survey has Cagle with a sizable 38 percent plurality, while Secretary of State Brian Kemp and former state Sen. Hunter Hill tie for second at 10 points apiece; no other candidate tops 3 percent. That represents an uptick for Cagle compared to the pollster's previously unreleased February survey, where he led Kemp 31-12.
Cagle, who leads the state Senate, made news last month when he tweeted that he would block a proposed tax break for the Atlanta-based airline "unless the company changes its position and fully reinstates its relationship with the NRA." Until then, there wasn't much talk in the GOP-led legislature about retaliating against Delta, but the proposed tax break was stripped from the tax bill. While GOP Gov. Nathan Deal said he was opposed to the move, he ended up signing it anyway.
It's hard to say whether Cagle's NRA stunt actually has had any impact on his primary support, though. Thanks to his nearly 12 years in office as lieutenant governor, Cagle started the race with far higher name recognition than his rivals. Consequently, he has led in every one of the handful of publicly available polls to date, although his 38 percent in this latest internal poll is still far from the outright majority needed to avoid a runoff. No matter what, Democrats are hoping that the GOP's war against the state's largest private employer will hurt Team Red in the general.
● IL-Gov: The ads keep on coming in Illinois' swiftly approaching March 20 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Businessman Chris Kennedy's latest spot features historical news footage of his father, the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, during the latter's 1968 presidential campaign. As RFK greets voters, the narrator says, "Chris Kennedy's father fought for civil rights, equality, and fairness." The ad segues to a clip of the younger Kennedy meeting voters on the campaign trail in 2018, while the narrator says, "The fight lives on in Chris' campaign for governor." The commercial concludes by highlighting Kennedy's newspaper endorsements and promises he will be an anti-establishment progressive if elected.
Meanwhile, wealthy venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker is out with another one of his countless ads. This latest spot features Rep. Cheri Bustos praising Pritzker for "getting outside of Chicago" as Pritzker campaigns in cities like Peoria, Bloomington, and smaller towns outside of the Chicago metro area. Pritzker promises he'll fight to raise wages and create jobs.
● NM-Gov: Former Univision executive Jeff Apodaca is up with a 15-second TV ad ahead of the Democratic primary for governor. At a hurried pace, Apodaca speaks to the camera to say he's "tired of hearing New Mexico is poor," and promises to take $1 billion from New Mexico's $23 billion long-term investment fund and invest it in creating jobs, funding schools, and fighting crime. Meanwhile, state Sen. Joe Cervantes has a new spot that highlights how his background of growing up on a farm taught him the meaning of hard work. He says the state's governor has a responsibility to create jobs, while Cervantes argues he'll help improve education and health care if elected.
● NY-Gov: Former "Sex and the City" actress Cynthia Nixon has reportedly begun assembling a campaign team for a primary challenge from the left against Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, although her spokesperson said she still hasn't reached a final decision about whether to run. Nixon has increasingly sounded likely to challenge Cuomo in the September primary, but she'll face a daunting task of beating the well-funded incumbent if she decides to run.
Meanwhile, the battle for the GOP nomination may be over well before the primary. State Sen. John DeFrancisco said on Monday that he'd drop out if the party endorses someone else at the May convention, though he added the caveat "as long as the process is fair." Prominent party leaders favor Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro over DeFrancisco and Joseph Holland, a former state housing commissioner.
● RI-Gov: While Rhode Island is a very blue state, what limited polling there is has indicated that Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo is not popular and could be in for a tough general election. On behalf of Roger Williams University and local CBS-affiliate WPRI, Fleming & Associates gives us our first look at Raimondo's re-election prospects, and they find her locked in a tight race with an old foe.
Raimondo leads Cranston Mayor Allan Fung just 38-36, while conservative independent Joe Trillo, a former state representative, grabs 6 percent. Raimondo beat Fung 41-36 in the 2014 general election, while Robert Healey of the Moderate Party (who has since died) took 21. Raimondo fairs better against state House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan, who is Fung's main rival in the September GOP primary, leading her 43-25, with Trillo at 9.
The poll gives Raimondo a tepid, but not horrific, 50-46 favorable rating. By a similar 37-31 margin, voters agree she's doing an excellent or good job instead of a poor job, with another 30 percent ranking her as fair. (The writeup treats fair as a negative score, but it's probably best to treat it as, well, fair.) But one of Raimondo's problems is that Fung posts a considerably stronger 49-26 favorable rating; Morgan is barely known at 18-13, while Trillo is underwater at 11-23.
● SD-Gov: State Attorney General Marty Jackley is up with his first ad ahead of the GOP primary for governor, which his campaign manager said was backed by a six-figure buy. The commercial is a positive spot that praises Jackley as "a conservative we can trust" to keep taxes and spending low, while it also hits standard conservative themes on opposing abortion rights and protecting the Second Amendment. The ad touts Jackley's "tough on crime" bona fides and notes that the vast majority of county sheriffs have endorsed him.
House
● CA-21, CA-10: Engineer T.J. Cox, a Democrat, has switched from running for the Modesto-based 10th District to the 21st District, which stretches from the Fresno area to Bakersfield and is held by Republican Rep. David Valadao. Cox lives a few miles outside the 21st, so he's actually running considerably closer to home than he was before this week. Still, Valadao may nevertheless try to label him a carpetbagger anyway, particularly since a plurality of this district's population is in the Bakersfield area.
Cox ended 2017 with $280,000 on-hand, meaning Team Blue's prospects in this race are likely much better with him in the race than 2016 nominee Emilio Huerta, who recently dropped out amid signs he was running a terribly weak campaign again. It's still possible that another Democrat could get in, but we'll know very soon with the March 9 filing deadline approaching.
While this district backed Hillary Clinton 55-40, defeating Valadao in a midterm could still be especially difficult. This district has the highest share of adults with no college degree of any in the country, and it's heavily Latino; both of those two demographic groups tend to disproportionately not vote in midterms. Consequently, this seat typically has some of the worst turnout of any district when presidential races aren't on the ballot, benefiting Republicans. Nevertheless, in a year where the political environments both nationally and in California appear to be strongly favoring Democrats, Valadao may yet be vulnerable thanks to this district's blue lean at the presidential level.
● CA-50: Conservative talk radio host and former San Diego City Councilor Carl DeMaio announced on Monday that he had pulled papers to run against Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter, though he has yet to file his signatures to make the ballot. Regardless, we'll know soon enough which Republicans are running in this GOP-leaning San Diego-area district, since the filing deadline is on Friday.
● FL-27: On Monday, former University of Miami President Donna Shalala, who served as Bill Clinton's secretary of Health and Human Services and went on to lead the Clinton Foundation, filed with the FEC to seek the Democratic nomination. Shalala's pollster says she'll announce her plans Wednesday; we'll have more on this race once she's declared she's in.
● GA-06: Democrat Lucy McBath, a prominent gun-safety activist, unexpectedly kicked off a bid against GOP Rep. Karen Handel on Tuesday. McBath had raised more than $100,000 for a planned run against state Rep. Sam Teasley, but she says that after the mass shooting in Florida, she decided to instead run for Congress.
McBath got involved in gun safety efforts in 2012, the year her 17-year-old son was murdered by a gunman while hanging out in a car with his friends. McBath became an early member of the group Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America. McBath was invited to the White House by Barack Obama for his address on gun violence, and she also spoke at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. McBath previously worked for decades as a flight attendant for Delta Air Lines, and she criticized the GOP-led state government for punishing the company after it severed ties with the NRA. Businessman Kevin Abel and former newscaster Bobby Kaple are also running in the May primary, and we'll give an overview of where this race stands after filing closes on March 9.
● IA-02: The March 16 filing deadline is coming up quickly, and Republicans are still hoping to land a credible candidate against Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. On Monday, businesswoman and evangelical activist Ginny Caligiuri joined the race, but it's not clear if she fits the bill. Caligiuri has served as state director for the Congressional Prayer Caucus and National Governor's Prayer Team, so she may have some useful connections in the world of GOP politics.
The only other candidate running in the June primary is physician Christopher Peters, who lost to Loebsack 54-46 as this eastern Iowa seat was swinging from 56-43 Obama to 49-45 Trump. However, Peters is still a weak fundraiser, and he had just $12,000 on-hand at the end of 2017.
● IL-03: NARAL, a national pro-choice group that is backing businesswoman Marie Newman in the primary against conservative Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski, is out with a PPP poll that shows a close race for the first time ever. The survey has Lipinski up just 43-41; that's a far better result for Newman than the only other survey we've seen, which was an October internal poll from Newman's campaign that had her trailing by 49-18. Lipinski has so far not released any contradictory polling of his own.
The March 20 primary is swiftly approaching for this safely blue southwestern Chicago-area district, but this PPP poll is just the latest sign that Newman may have a chance to pull off an upset against one of the worst Democrats in Congress. She has scored a string of endorsements in recent weeks from national progressive groups like EMILY's List, influential Illinois labor organizations like the Federation of Teachers, and even a handful of congressional Democrats. Those allies like NARAL have also been supporting Newman with hundreds of thousands spent on ads.
Lipinski will likely still be a formidable incumbent, and he had a large campaign funding advantage over Newman at the end of 2017 thanks to his many years of incumbency. However, his anti-choice, anti-LGBTQ, anti-immigrant views may finally prove to be too great of a liability with mainstream Democratic primary voters in an era where progressives are fired up to fight against the Trump administration's reactionary policies.
● PA-02: Philadelphia School Reform Commission member Bill Green, a former city councilor and the son of a former mayor, announced on Monday that he was indeed challenging Rep. Brendan Boyle in the May primary for this safely blue seat. However, legal experts disagree about whether Green needs to resign his post to run or risk being thrown off the ballot, and Green says he's not stepping down no matter what.
The dispute stems from a state law saying that "no commission member may, while in the service of the School Reform Commission, seek or hold a position as any other public official within this commonwealth." As the Philadelphia Inquirer explains, the question is whether a member of Congress counts as a public official in this case.
Green and the commission's deputy legal counsel say that "public official" does not include any federal elected offices, while three attorneys (including Daily Kos contributor Adam Bonin) who spoke to the paper and are not involved in the race say that it does. One of them even said that Green could get thrown off the ballot if he runs. What's strange is that the School Reform Commission, and with it, Green's post, will stop existing on June 30, just a month and a half after the primary. Green could resign now and avoid any problems, but he says he absolutely won't.
In any case, Green has a tough task ahead of him if he wants to unseat Boyle. While redistricting left Boyle with a seat that's about half new for him, he doesn't seem to have done much to alienate primary voters. Boyle does have some serious enemies within the Philadelphia Democratic Party, including Lt. Gov. Mike Stack and state Sen. John Sabatina. However, Boyle is close to the building trades unions, and he did very well in the 2014 primary for the old 13th District with the support of Philly politicians and groups.
By contrast, Green has alienated plenty of influential Democrats. Green was appointed by GOP Gov. Tom Corbett to chair of the state-imposed Philadelphia School Reform Commission, where he approved the expansion of charter schools. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf demoted Green after he beat Corbett, a decision Green unsuccessfully sued to reverse. Green also angered teachers' unions during his tenure.
And while Green was a Democrat when he held a citywide council seat, he became an independent later, and he considered running against now-Mayor Jim Kenney in the 2015 general election. Green decided not to, and after an unsuccessful attempt to create his own party, he rejoined the Democratic Party late last month. Minister and former bank executive Michele Lawrence is also running, and she could make Green's task even more difficult.
● PA-07: Another Democrat is eyeing this open Lehigh Valley swing seat. Former Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan told The Morning Call on Monday that he's considering joining in, and will decide in days. The filing deadline is March 20, but candidates need to circulate petitions well before then.
Callahan was unsuccessfully recruited to run in 2006 and 2008 when Democrats were eager to challenge GOP Rep. Charlie Dent, who is now retiring, in a seat that had backed both John Kerry in 2004 and would support Barack Obama in 2008. Callahan finally took the plunge in 2010, but he lost 54-39 as that year's Republican wave crashed down hard on the Keystone State. Callahan's last attempt to return to elected office didn't go all that well when he lost by 52-48 in his 2013 campaign for Northampton County's open executive office.
If Callahan runs, he'll face at least three opponents in the May primary: Pastor Greg Edwards; Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli, who is very conservative; and former Allentown Solicitor Susan Wild. It's not clear whom national Democrats like, but at least one candidate insists that the DCCC wanted to swap him out for Callahan. Last week, Edwards told the Washington Post that after the new congressional map was unveiled, a DCCC staffer unsuccessfully tried to persuade him to drop out and seek a different seat. Edwards, who is black, said that it felt that national Democrats were trying to shove out the one person of color.
The D-Trip confirmed that an operative had indeed asked local Democrats if Edwards or Wild were interested in running for the state Senate instead, and that they spoke to Edwards after he learned of the meetings. However, they said that this was a routine conversation given all the uncertainty that resulted from redistricting, and they weren't asking anyone to drop out. The head of the state Senate Democratic campaign committee also agrees that the DCCC only asked him "if we'd be interested in any of these folks" if they switched races, and there was no attempt to force anyone out of the contest for Congress.
Edwards is not convinced, and his campaign argues they were specifically targeted. One of Edwards' staffers who was in the meeting with the DCCC's operative told the Morning Call that the committee argued that "we don't want someone through who isn't viable," and suggested that Edwards' fundraising was too weak to flip the seat. The campaign also says that the DCCC felt that Callahan would have the strong fundraising base they wanted. For their part, the Wild campaign says the DCCC "never asked her to run for another race."
● PA-16: Redistricting made GOP Rep. Mike Kelly's Erie-area seat a bit bluer, but this is still tough turf. While Kelly's old 3rd District backed Trump 61-35, the new 16th supported him 58-38. However, Romney only carried the new 16th 52-47, while Obama won it by approximately 50-49 in 2008, meaning it may still be winnable for Team Blue if everything goes right. And this week, one Democratic candidate from yesteryear began making noises about challenging Kelly.
All the way back in 1996, attorney Ron DiNicola lost to GOP freshman Rep. Phil English 50.7-49.3 in what was then known as the 21st District. DiNicola, a retired Marine who was boxing legend Muhammad Ali's attorney for decades (and received campaign help from Ali in 1996), says he's considering a bid against Kelly. But while DiNicola hasn't committed to anything publicly, he's already circulating petitions to get on the ballot. DiNicola currently serves as chair of a nonprofit that's working to create a community college in Erie County.
Mayoral
● Nashville, TN Mayor: On Tuesday, Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, a Democrat, announced she would resign as part of a plea deal for felony theft related to an affair with the former head of her security detail. Barry agreed to pay the city $11,000 in restitution and serve three years' probation as well as give up her office.
Earlier this year, Barry admitted to having a relationship with Sgt. Rob Forrest, but she denied anything happened while he was on duty or that she had misused taxpayer time or travel money. But last month, the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation announced that they had obtained nude photos of a woman they believed to be Barry from Forrest's phone that were evidence that the affair happened during an official trip; they also recovered deleted chats that they said also suggested state crimes had been committed. A judge soon issued a search warrant for the mayor's cellphone. On Tuesday, barely a month after she admitted to her affair with Forrest, Barry resigned.
Until this, Barry looked like a rising Democratic star in a conservative state. Barry's 2015 win over Republican David Fox made her Nashville's first female mayor. Barry's victory was also seen as a win for local progressives, especially after Fox sought to portray Barry as unacceptably liberal and even launched a radio ad depicting her as an anti-Christian extremist. Barry was popular during her tenure, and a poll taken after she admitted to the affair (but before more revelations came out) even gave her a 61 percent approval rating.
With Barry's departure, Vice Mayor David Briley, who also is a progressive, will become acting mayor. A nonpartisan special election will be held on Aug. 2, the same date as Tennessee's statewide primary. If no one takes a majority of the vote, there will be a September runoff between the top two candidates. Nashville is a very blue city that backed Clinton 60-34. Fox did wage a competitive race in 2015 so it's possible a Republican could have an opening, though Barry won 55-45. It's far from clear who will run, though The Tennessean identified Briley as "a strong bet" to seek the rest of Barry's term. The winner will be up for a full term in 2019.
