House Speaker Paul Ryan's Wednesday retirement announcement dropped like a bombshell, but it didn't take long for local Republicans to recover from the shock and start expressing interest in Ryan’s now-open suburban Milwaukee seat. The filing deadline isn't until June 1, however, and the primary will be in early August, so there’s still plenty of time for the field to develop—on both sides. Wisconsin’s 1st District moved from 52-47 Romney (whose running-mate that year was Ryan) to 53-42 Trump, but Ryan's departure should give Democrats a larger opening.
State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos was mentioned as a possible candidate almost immediately, and he said he would decide on a bid by Friday. However, Vos’ timing is poor: Just this week, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported that he was among several lawmakers from across the country who had taken a free trip with lobbyists to London last summer. Ohio state House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger announced he was resigning this week in the midst of an FBI investigation that reportedly includes an inquiry into this trip, though Vos himself denies he's been contacted by the feds about it. Still, not good.
A number of other Republicans are also possible candidates, though Vos' decision could have an impact on who runs. Attorney Bryan Steil, a member of the University of Wisconsin Board of Regents and a longtime Ryan friend, said Wednesday that he was giving the race "serious consideration." State Rep. Samantha Kerkman also said she was interested and would decide in a couple of days. The Wisconsin State Journal adds that state Sen. David Craig, who is a former Ryan aide, is "rumored" to be interested.
The Huffington Post also writes that senior House GOP aides have "floated" the name of Andy Speth, Ryan’s deputy chief of staff, but there's no word on his interest. A local GOP operative also speculated that state Sen. Leah Vukmir could abandon her Senate bid and run here instead, but there's likewise no sign she's considering this. However, one big name we can cross off the list is Reince Priebus, the former RNC chair who briefly (and haplessly) served as Trump’s chief of staff before getting fired after just half a year on the job. Reince definitively said on Thursday he was a no.
Two Democrats were already running against Ryan before his departure, but a familiar name is also expressing interest. Assemblyman Peter Barca, who served as his party’s minority leader from 2011 until last year, said Thursday he was "going to give it some thought." Barca, then as now in a member of the Assembly, won a previous version of this seat all the way back in 1993 in a tight 49.9-49.3 special election against Republican Mark Neumann, but he lost their rematch 49.4-48.8 during the next year’s GOP wave.
Barca returned to the Assembly in 2008 and became minority leader two years later, after Democrats lost the chamber. However, after he was one of just three Democrats to vote for GOP Gov. Scott Walker’s much-criticized $3 billion tax incentive package to lure the electronics company Foxconn to the Milwaukee area, members of his caucus publicly criticized him, and he stepped down from his leadership post.
But no matter what Barca does, it may be tough for anyone else to gain traction in the Democratic primary. Iron worker Randy Bryce entered the race last year with a popular announcement video, and he's been a strong fundraiser (though more on that later). Bryce, who has played up his blue-collar background, has the support of Bernie Sanders, and the DCCC recently added him to their Red to Blue list for top candidates.
However, Bryce does have some potential liabilities. He only paid off some old debts, including $1,300 in child support and a $2,000 loan from almost two decades ago, well after he kicked off his campaign. Bryce also got himself into trouble in October when he tweeted a picture of Ivanka Trump with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau captioned, "Don't worry @jaredkushner regardless of what might go down - she'll be okay. #MuellerTime."
It's hard to know what exactly Bryce meant by this—Toronto Star reporter Daniel Dale said it sounded like Bryce was "suggest[ing] Ivanka will hook up with Trudeau, or something, if her husband gets arrested"—but whatever he had in mind, the reaction was sharply negative. Bryce eventually deleted the tweet and seems to have become more disciplined since then, but this kind of shoot-from-the-lip style could cause him more trouble on the campaign trail.
And while Bryce has raised indeed a tremendous amount of money, he's also spent a tremendous amount of money, far ahead of Election Day. Bryce raised a total of $4.75 million through March, but he had only $2.3 million left in the bank. That's still an enormous war chest for a House campaign, but critics have questioned his high burn rate, including some odd expenditures like a January cable TV ad buy … that ran in Seattle and San Francisco.
The other Democrat in the race is Cathy Myers, a member of the Janesville School Board. Myers has earned significantly less attention than Bryce, and she's also raised far less money. However, Myers did say she brought in $500,000 during the first quarter of 2018, though she did not make her cash-on-hand totals available yet.