The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TX-Sen, TX-Gov: Quinnipiac made waves on Wednesday when they released a survey—the school’s first ever of Texas—giving GOP Sen. Ted Cruz just a 47-44 lead over Democratic nominee Beto O'Rourke. They also found GOP Gov. Greg Abbott with a 49-40 edge against former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, while businessman Andrew White, the other candidate in the May 22 Democratic primary runoff, trails 48-41. So, what to make of one of the best poll results for Texas Democrats in ages?
Campaign Action
Well, as we've been writing for years, if a poll feels too good to be true, it probably is, just as the inverse is often the case. Perhaps the biggest red flag is that Donald Trump posts a 43-52 disapproval rating, which is almost identical to the 41-52 score Quinnipiac found him at nationally earlier this month; the HuffPost Pollster average also gives Trump a similar 42-53 nationwide score. Trump carried Texas by a 52-43 margin in 2016, so it seems very unlikely that Texas voters now disapprove of him just about as much as the entire country does.
But we can't just compare Quinnipiac's horserace numbers to the average, because other public polling has been scant in the Senate race and nonexistent in the gubernatorial contest. All we have are a December WPA Intelligence poll for Cruz that had him ahead 52-34 and a January PPP survey for the progressive group End Citizens United, which has endorsed O’Rourke, that also found Cruz in front, albeit by a smaller 45-37 spread.
At this point, we should be skeptical of the notion that Cruz is on the brink of defeat, or that Abbott is in real danger. If nothing else, we always caution that you should never let one poll determine your view of a race, even if—in fact, especially if—there’s just one poll out there.
That hardly means that we should throw a poll like this out, of course. Democrats are more energized than they’ve been in years, and if that enthusiasm continues, it’ll go a long way towards producing a favorable midterm electorate. O'Rourke also has done a strong job of rallying anti-Cruz donors nationwide, so much so that his eye-popping first-quarter haul of $6.7 million was more than double Cruz’s $3.2 million take. Of course, Cruz will still have plenty of resources to defend himself with, and his well-funded conservative allies will have his back, but O'Rourke will be able to get his message out in a way Democratic Senate candidates in Texas haven't been able to in a very long time. So even if Quinnipiac’s numbers are on the rosy side, Cruz still faces a serious challenge—as Daily Kos Elections’ David Beard argued he could from the moment O’Rourke launched his campaign a year ago.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Republican Sen. John McCain has been absent from the Senate for months due to poor health, and now Republicans recently floated a ploy to avoid any special election if a vacancy arises this year. Republican state senators added an emergency clause to a bill under consideration that would have imposed a March 31 deadline, effectively pushing a special election to 2020, but they soon thereafter pulled the proposal from the floor under criticism from Democrats.
Under current law, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey would appoint an interim GOP senator who would serve would serve until the next regularly scheduled general election. However, the current provision doesn't specify any deadline if a vacancy arises in an election year, and Arizona governors have never had to appoint a replacement senator before. Republican election administrators have argued that a special wouldn't have to be held until 2020 if for instance McCain resigns after the May 31 filing deadline passes. However, they could face lawsuits if such an event took place and the GOP refused to call an election, particularly with the primary not happening until Aug. 28.
Democratic legislators decried this proposed bill as an attempt to give a Republican appointee more than two years in office without having to face the voters in a midterm year where Arizona Republicans are already facing a highly competitive race to win Arizona's regularly scheduled Senate race for retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake's seat. However, this emergency clause regarding Senate appointments would require a two-thirds legislative vote to become law, and Democrats have enough members in both chambers to block the legislation, but that's only if they are unified against it.
● CA-Sen: Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, who is a progressive mega-donor, has endorsed Democratic state Sen. Kevin de Leon and didn't rule out funding a super PAC to help him defeat Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein. De Leon's $672,000 in cash-on-hand at the beginning of April paled in comparison to Feinstein's $10.3 million war chest, which she built with a hefty $5 million loan to herself, but Steyer could help level the playing field in this incredibly expensive state if he ends up following through and spending millions to boost De Leon.
● IN-Sen: Rep. Todd Rokita has found himself in hot water with Donald's Trump re-election campaign for giving out yard signs that misleadingly imply Trump endorsed him in the May 8 GOP primary. The signs say "Endorsed by Trump/Pence" with smaller letters below that read "2016 Indiana Team Leaders," which Rokita undoubtedly is trying to spin as having the Trump administration's support, when in reality he was simply endorsed by two volunteers who led Trump's 2016 state campaign.
Rokita's spokesperson has refused to say whether they'll take the signs down, but the public rebuke from Trump's campaign could undermine the congressman's attempt to wrap himself in all things Trump. Indeed, Rokita donned a MAGA hat in a recent ad, reportedly carries a cardboard cutout of Trump to campaign rallies, and has tried to accuse his primary rivals of opposing Trump.
● MT-Sen: State Auditor Matt Rosendale's allies at the Club for Growth have released a poll from WPA Intelligence giving him a 40-17 lead over former state Judge Russ Fagg in the June GOP primary. Businessman Troy Downing takes 12, while state Sen. Albert Olszewski is at 8. The only other poll we've seen of the race to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Tester was a February poll for Rosendale also from WPA Intelligence that found him leading Downing 28-12.
Rosendale is the only statewide elected official in the race, so it's likely that part of his early lead is the result of name recognition. However, Rosendale also is the only candidate who is receiving help from major outside groups: Restoration PAC, which is primarily funded by conservative mega-donor Richard Uihlein, launched what they said was a $500,000 TV buy last month to promote Rosendale. If Rosendale's friends keep spending and the other three candidates can't match it, it could be very tough for them to beat him come June.
● ND-Sen: Candidate filing closed last week for North Dakota's June 12 primaries, and the state has a list of candidates here.
It took a while for this race to develop, but there were no last-minute surprises. Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer each face little primary opposition ahead of what will be a very competitive contest. Polling in North Dakota is usually hard to come by, and we could be in the dark here once again. Heitkamp held a large $5.3 million to $1.9 million cash-on-hand lead at the end of March, but national Republicans are going to do whatever they can to give Cramer the resources he needs.
● WV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's latest ad highlights his West Virginia roots by talking about how he lost an uncle and neighbor in a 1968 mining disaster, arguing West Virginia's struggles are his struggles too. Manchin bemoans how both parties have "screwed" the state and literally says, "Washington sucks," but he asserts he will "never change" when it comes to putting West Virginia first.
Gubernatorial
● AZ-Gov: First-quarter fundraising reports are now available in Arizona's gubernatorial race, where Republican Gov. Doug Ducey continues to maintain a large edge over his prospective Democratic opponents. Ducey raised $530,000 and had $3 million in cash-on-hand at the beginning of April. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Steve Farley raised $265,000 and had $309,000 in the bank, while Arizona State University professor David Garcia took in $239,000 and finished the quarter with $185,000 on-hand.
One other Democrat whom we previously had not written about is Kelly Fryer, who raised $109,000 and had $55,000 on-hand. Fryer is a progressive activist who doesn't appear to have run for office before, but she says she decided to step down as the CEO of the YWCA Southern Arizona after becoming dissatisfied with the Democratic field. The primary here isn't until Aug. 28, so Ducey will have plenty of time to stockpile his resources compared to the eventual Democratic nominee.
● CT-Gov: On Wednesday, state Sen. Toni Boucher announced that she would run for re-election rather than seek the GOP nomination. Boucher had formed an exploratory committee back in July, but she never seemed to catch fire. Four years ago, Boucher also created an exploratory committee but decided not to run. Boucher was the last notable potential candidate on either side who had created an exploratory committee but had not yet committed to running.
● IA-Gov: Businessman Fred Hubbell is up with another ad ahead of the June Democratic primary. The spot stars a woman named Tammy Nyden, who says that her son Cole "started to have mental health symptoms" at a young age. She continues by saying that Cole was a Hubbell supporter before she was; Cole then appears and says he'd never seen a candidate whose main point was supporting mental health, adding that the system in Iowa is a disaster.
Hubbell began airing commercials last fall, and he hasn't let up. Iowa Starting Line writes that Hubbell has spent a total of $2.28 million on TV ads so far, considerably more than the $463,000 that state Sen. Nate Boulton has spent. Polling has been very scarce here, so we don't have a good sense for whether or not Hubbell's heavy early spending has helped him pull ahead of his other four noteworthy primary foes.
● KS-Gov: State Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer recently launched a new TV ad for the GOP primary that tries to portray him as the Kansas version of "outsider businessman" Donald Trump, while making no mention that he's currently in office. Selzer uses the tagline "Kansas First" and hits standard conservative themes on immigration and the Second Amendment.
● ME-Gov: On Tuesday, Maine's Supreme Court unanimously ruled that Maine will use instant-runoff voting (sometimes called "ranked-choice") in the June 12 primaries for federal and state offices, resolving the latest chapter of this long-running ordeal. As we have previously explained, the legislature has fought this voter-initiated law by seeking judicial intervention and passing a measure to effectively repeal it last year. However, that repeal effort itself is the subject of a veto referendum that will take place concurrently with the primaries, meaning voters will use this new voting system while simultaneously deciding whether to keep it.
This new system means Maine voters will be allowed to rank their top three preferred candidates. If no candidate wins an outright majority, then the last-place candidate gets eliminated and sees their votes redistributed to each of their voters' next preferences. That process repeats until one candidate wins a majority of votes remaining.
It's hard to say just who exactly stands to gain the most with instant-runoff, but the new voting system could shake things up given how there are seven notable Democrats and four prominent Republicans running in their respective primaries for governor. Candidates won't be able to just win a plurality over a divided opposition thanks to higher name recognition. Furthermore, they could even face pressure to run more positive campaigns, since each candidate has incentive to get voters who don't initially support them to at least give the candidate their second or third preference vote.
● MN-Gov: On Wednesday, former state GOP chair Keith Downey ended his longshot primary bid.
● MO-Gov: Missouri state Senate leader Ron Richard and state House Speaker Todd Richardson have both joined fellow Republicans in calling on GOP Gov. Eric Greitens to resign after state Attorney General Josh Hawley, another Republican, announced on Tuesday that his office found evidence that Greitens had committed an alleged felony by illegally obtaining a donor list from a charity he ran and using it for his 2016 campaign for governor. Greitens has already faced calls for his resignation after the legislature released a damning report last week regarding his sexual abuse and blackmail of a former mistress, for which he was charged with a felony back in February.
Greitens has so far refused to resign and says he intends to fight the matter in court. However, Richard called for his fellow legislators to immediately begin impeachment proceedings if the governor he doesn't step down, but Richardson didn't yet echo his counterpart's call. Nevertheless, with few allies left in the legislature, Greitens' days in office appear to be numbered.
● NM-Gov: Republican Rep. Steve Pearce has released an internal poll from The Tarrance Group that shows him trailing by just 47-45 in a likely general election matchup against Democratic Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham. The only other poll we've seen of this race was an almost identical Tarrance poll for an unspecified client last May that had him down 47-43. However, neither party is acting like they think this race is imminently winnable for Pearce: Neither the DGA nor RGA has reserved ad time in New Mexico, despite having allocated funds to other top races.
● OH-Gov: On Tuesday, Dennis Kucinich admitted to accepting $20,000 from a group supportive of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad to give a speech in London last year, after previously failing to reveal that fact on financial disclosure forms he'd filed with the state of Ohio. Kucinich had listed his speaking fees as just "paid speeches," without saying where the money had come from, until the director of the state's Ethics Commission sent him a letter last week informing him that his filings were "incomplete."
In a statement, Kucinich claimed the speech had been paid for by "a civil rights advocacy group in California," but as the Columbus Dispatch notes, this organization, the Syrian Solidarity Movement, is a completely unhinged front for Assad. Among many other things, it calls Doctors Without Borders, the Nobel Prize-winning humanitarian agency, "a Wall Street-funded organization" that "is providing support for militants armed and funded by the West and its regional allies, most of whom are revealed to be foreign fighters, affiliated with or directly belonging to Al Qaeda and its defacto political wing, the Muslim Brotherhood." Yeah, okay.
Kucinich, of course, is notorious for refusing to condemn Assad, whom Kucinich has repeatedly visited, including a trip last year with fellow war crimes denialist Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. But this latest incident drew a hot response from Gov. Ted Strickland, the last Democrat to hold the post, who blasted Kucinich on a conference call with reporters and endorsed his rival in the May 8 primary, Richard Cordray.
● WI-Gov: Madison Mayor Paul Soglin has released a month-old FM3 Research poll that has him trailing by 30-17 against state education superintendent Tony Evers in the crowded Democratic primary, while state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout takes 12 percent and no other candidate tops 6 points. Polling of this race has been infrequent, but Evers had a similar plurality in a Marquette survey from early March, where his edge over Soglin was 18-9.
There's still a ways to go until the Aug. 14 primary, and the Democratic field may not even be fully set. Indeed, businessman Mike Crute is the latest to jump into the race after he announced on Tuesday. Crute hosts a liberal radio show and might consequently have some initial name recognition.
However, a much more prominent Democrat also recently dipped his toes into the water: Longtime Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett didn't rule out running after the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel recently reported he was thinking about running again after being Team Blue's nominee against Republican Gov. Scott Walker in 2010 and the 2012 recall election. Barrett has $622,000 left over in his campaign account, and he would undoubtedly start with plenty of name recognition if he challenges Walker again. He gave no timeline for when he might make a decision, but the June 1 filing deadline is still several weeks away.
House
● CA-45: Law professor Dave Min is up with a spot ahead of the June top-two primary to face GOP Rep. Mimi Walters. Min tells the audience that Donald Trump "is waging an all-out assault on the American Dream," adding, "Those aren't the values that brought my parents to this country." The narrator goes on to remind the audience that Min is supported by the state Democratic Party.
● CA-48: Scientist Hans Keirstead has picked up an endorsement from the state SEIU ahead of the June top-two primary to take on GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher.
● MA-03: UMass Lowell takes a look at the 13-way September Democratic primary, and unsurprisingly finds that almost 60 percent of respondents are undecided. The one candidate who even is in the double digits is former Ambassador to Denmark Rufus Gifford, who takes all of 11 percent; in second place is state Sen. Barbara L'Italien with 7. The only other poll we've seen was a late March poll for L'Italien that showed her leading Daniel Koh, a former chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, 19-8.
● ND-AL: GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer is leaving this seat, which includes the entire state, to run for the Senate, and both parties have consolidated behind a candidate. On the GOP side, state Sen. Kelly Armstrong, who resigned as state party chair to run, recently won the party endorsement. While fellow state Sen. Tom Campbell filed to run against him, he announced last week that he was dropping out of the race. Two other Republicans filed, but neither of them reported raising any money by March 31. On the Democratic side, former state Senate Minority Leader Mac Schneider faces no opposition.
North Dakota backed Trump 63-27 and the GOP is favored to keep the seat. Still, the state can be unpredictable, and Schneider could have a chance if he runs a strong campaign. Money won't be an issue for Armstrong, however, who is very close to the state's oil industry. Armstrong outraised Schneider $357,000 to $128,000 during their first quarter of the race, and the Republican loaned himself an additional $100,000. At the end of March, Armstrong held a $236,000 to $126,000 cash-on-hand edge.
● PA-01: Attorney and philanthropist Scott Wallace is up with a TV spot with a month to go before the May 15 Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Wallace begins with a snippet of tweet from Donald Trump from right after the Parkland school shooting reading, "My prayers and condolences," as Wallace declares, "Prays and condolences don't mean a thing if we don't take action to protect our kids." Wallace then appears next to some school lockers, and he declares that Trump's idea to arm teachers is "idiotic." Wallace then calls for banning assault weapons and instituting background checks.
Wallace is one of three Democrats seeking this 49-47 Clinton seat, which includes all of Bucks County in the Philadelphia suburbs. Wallace loaned his campaign $900,000 during his first quarter in the race, while he raised another $173,000 from donors, and he ended March with just shy of $700,000 in the bank. Former JAG attorney Rachel Reddick, who has the support of both EMILY's List and VoteVets, raised $161,000 during the quarter, and she had $134,000 on-hand. The third candidate, environmentalist Steve Bacher, had just $15,000 to spend. Fitzpatrick ended March with $1.39 million on-hand.
● PA-04: State Rep. Madeleine Dean, who is one of three Democrats running in the May 15 primary for this new and very blue Montgomery County-based seat, recently picked up endorsements from five unions, including the state AFL-CIO, SEIU, and the influential IBEW Local 98. Dean also unveiled endorsements from a number of Montgomery County local elected officials, including County Sheriff Sean Kilkenny.
Thanks in large part to self-funding, Dean also has a big cash-on-hand edge over her two primary rivals. Gun-safety activist Shira Goodman and Dean both raised about $150,000 from donors, but Dean loaned herself an additional $250,000. At the end of March, Dean led Goodman $385,000 to $135,000 in cash-on-hand. Former Rep. Joe Hoeffel kicked off a surprise bid in mid-March, but he raised only $20,000 over the following weeks; oddly, Hoeffel doesn't report spending a single cent before March 31.
● TX-05: The National Association of Realtors has endorsed state Rep. Lance Gooden over fundraiser Bunni Pounds in the May 22 GOP runoff for this safely red seat. NAR is one of the rare groups that spends heavily for candidates on both sides of the aisle.
● WI-01: A number of notable Republicans have said no to this race in the week since Speaker Paul Ryan announced he would retire, and attention has turned to attorney Bryan Steil. Steil, a longtime Ryan friend who was once his personal driver, has been talking to major donors about running, and the chair of the Rock County GOP says that Steil will decide over the weekend.
Steil, who served as a member of the University of Wisconsin Board of Regents, also works as general counsel and secretary at the Charter NEX Films Inc., which produces polyethylene film. CNBC reports that he's been eyeing this seat since 2012, when Ryan was running for vice president, and that some members of the state's congressional delegation consider him a strong recruit.
On Wednesday, a different Republican announced he would run, but he doesn't seem like a very strong candidate in the August primary. Kenosha County Supervisor Jeff Wamboldt, who works as a police officer in Kenosha, declared that it was "too bad that we have to put labels on ourselves like Republican or Democrat," and said he'd only been involved with the local GOP "to a small degree."
● DCCC: This week, the DCCC added another five candidates to their Red to Blue program. Red to Blue is meant to highlight the candidates the committee thinks are the strongest in key House races in large part to encourage donors and other liberal organizations to support them. Below are the candidates, each seat's 2012 and 2016 presidential numbers included.
AR-02: Clarke Tucker (52-42 Trump, 55-43 Romney)
CA-39: Gil Cisneros (51-43 Clinton, 51-47 Romney)
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (49-48 Clinton, 53-46 Romney)
NY-24: Juanita Perez Williams (49-45 Clinton, 57-41 Obama)
OH-07: Ken Harbaugh (62-33 Trump, 54-44 Romney)
There are a few interesting things about this latest batch, and we'll start with perhaps the most important development.
Democrats have fretted that two Republicans could advance through the June top-two primary in a number of California House seats, and national Democrats have said they're looking for ways to prevent this kind of disaster. Navy veteran Gil Cisneros is the first California House candidate they've endorsed in a contested primary (the committee previously backed TJ Cox, who is the only candidate whatsoever challenging GOP Rep. David Valadeo in the 21st District), so they're betting that he has the best chance to advance to the general. Cisneros also already had the support of 11 different California House members.
Over in New York's 24th, former Syracuse corporation counsel Juanita Perez Williams announced in January that she wouldn't run despite the DCCC's attempts to recruit her, but she changed her mind this month. Syracuse University professor Dana Balter has been campaigning against GOP Rep. John Katko for months, and she has the support of all four county Democratic parties.
After the news broke that Perez Williams had changed her mind, the county-party chairs put out a statement accusing the DCCC of "meddling" in the June primary. But Balter only had $75,000 in the bank at the end of March to Katko's $1.25 million, and the DCCC seems to have decided that angering the local Democratic leaders is a risk they need to take in order to get a different nominee.
The situation is very different in New Jersey. Former State Department official Tom Malinowski has support of each county party in the district, which gives him the important organization line in every corner of the seat. Malinowski, who is challenging GOP Rep. Leonard Lance, also has considerably more money in the bank than either of his June primary foes. Malinowski had $734,000 on-hand at the end of the quarter to attorney Goutam Jois' $301,000, while 2016 nominee Peter Jacob had only $27,000. (Lance had $850,000 to spend.) A surprise is always possible in June, but backing Malinowski before the primary seems like a pretty safe call for the DCCC.
The DCCC reportedly spent months trying to convince state Rep. Clarke Tucker to challenge Arkansas Rep. French Hill, so it's not a surprise they're backing him now. Tucker had $445,000 in the bank after just a few months in the race, but he does have a noteworthy opponent in the May primary. High school teacher Paul Spencer has been running since late June, and he had $120,000 to spend at the end of March.
Finally, retired Navy pilot Ken Harbaugh faces only minor primary opposition in Ohio, but he's an interesting inductee for another reason. GOP Rep. Bob Gibbs has never been seriously targeted before now, and his very-gerrymandered seat backed Trump by a punishing 62-33 margin.
But Harbaugh, who ran a disaster relief organization, has been a strong fundraiser. Gibbs had a large $1.37 million to $727,000 cash-on-hand lead, but Harbaugh has enough resources to run a serious campaign. This is by far Trump's best district of all the 38 currently on Red to Blue (Trump's second-largest margin of victory was in Kansas' 2nd, which backed him "just" 56-37), so it's noteworthy that the DCCC is betting that it can flip.
