The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections is once again pleased to bring you our quarterly House fundraising roundup chart, with data on every major race for the first quarter of 2018. In total, we cover an astounding 669 candidates in 202 different contests, a reflection both of the progressive enthusiasm that has prompted so many Democrats to run this year as well as the proliferation of open Republican seats due to a record-shattering number of GOP retirements.
Campaign Action
As we discuss House races in the coming days, we'll pause here and there to investigate which candidates are bringing in the sort of money they need to win, and which ones aren't. And one thing we like to look at isn't necessarily who's outraising whom but rather which contenders will have the resources to get their message out and which ones won't.
It's not uncommon for candidates to win primaries or even general elections despite getting outspent. But it is unusual is for them to win without having the money to hire a skilled staff, air television and digital ads, send mailers, build a field operation, and pay for all the other things it takes to run a credible race. And of course, it costs more to run ads in some media markets than others, so what might look like a decent fundraising haul in South Dakota may be underwhelming in South Florida.
It's also worth noting that a candidate's financial picture can change rapidly—and unexpectedly. That's been particularly true this cycle, where a number of unheralded Democrats in difficult districts have put together credible hauls seemingly out of nowhere. By the same token, nominees often see a fundraising boost after they win their primaries, but only two states have held their primaries so far, so there are plenty more to come.
Money, of course, isn't everything in politics. If it were, then rich self-funders would win all the time (thankfully, they don't). But it's still necessary, and these quarterly fundraising reports give us a good window into who is capable of running a serious campaign and who isn't.
P.S. You can find our companion Senate fundraising chart here. Note that Senate candidates (rather incredibly) still file reports on paper, which the FEC must then scan in—a process that takes some time. Therefore, we're still collecting data, most of which comes from media reports.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Local station ABC15 and OH Predictive Insights has a new poll out of both the Aug. 28 Senate GOP primary and potential general election matchups between each Republican candidate and Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. The poll, conducted April 10 and 11, found former state Sen. Kelli Ward leading the primary field with 36 percent, with Rep. Martha McSally at 27 percent and former Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio at 22 percent. These numbers present significant movement since a January ABC15/OHPI poll that had McSally at 31 percent, Arpaio at 29, and Ward at 25. In general election matchups, the new ABC15/OHPI poll had Sinema leading Ward 50-40 percent, leading McSally 48-42 percent, and leading Arpaio 59-33 percent.
● IN-Sen: The Indianapolis Star reported on Thursday that in 2003, when Luke Messer was persuading local GOP leaders to appoint him to replace a state representative who had been killed by a drunk driver, Messer kept his own two DUIs a secret. Messer got the job, which he used to launch a political career that would lead to his election to the House in 2012. Messer is now running in the three-way May 8 primary to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly.
Both DUIs, which happened when Messer was in his 20s, eventually became public, though he wasn't the one who revealed either of them. In 2009, around the time that Messer was unsuccessfully challenging then-Rep. Dan Burton in the primary, an anonymous person mailed court documents to the media about his 1995 conviction. Three years later, Messer's Democratic foe brought a previously-unknown 1990 charge to light.
However, several of the local party leaders who picked Messer for the state House seat in 2003 told the Star that they didn't know about either DUI until the paper contacted them for the story. Several of them said they were not happy he hadn't told them 15 years ago, and that he probably wouldn't have been selected had they known.
● WV-Sen: National Republicans are airing ads for the May 8 GOP primary against notorious coal baron Don Blankenship, whom they fear is unelectable against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, and now, a Democratic group is trying to help Blankenship get nominated.
A new super PAC called Duty and Country has launched what Politico says is a $380,000 ad buy that targets each of Blankenship's main rivals, Rep. Evan Jenkins and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, while conspicuously not mentioning Blankenship. The group shares the same address as Senate Majority PAC, and its treasurer is former U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin, who prosecuted Blankenship over the deaths of 29 workers in the 2010 Upper Big Branch Mine explosion.
Their anti-Jenkins ad argues that when he was head of the state medical association, he "pushed West Virginian doctors to use an insurance company that overcharged for services" because he got money from the deal. Their spot against Morrisey hits the attorney general as "a millionaire New Yorker and former lobbyist" who doesn't understand West Virginia. The narrator encourages Morrisey to run for senator of New York instead. Jenkins and Morrisey have been on the receiving end of plenty of negative ads from each other and from Blankenship, but we believe this is the first time they've been attacked over these stories on TV.
Blankenship is also out with yet another commercial that ties himself to Donald Trump as closely as possible, mentioning all the Trump priorities he supports. Trump himself is not aboard the U.S.S. Blankenship, and a few weeks ago, he invited Jenkins and Morrisey to a rally while snubbing the third candidate.
Gubernatorial
● CA-Gov: A new poll of California's gubernatorial primary paints a largely familiar picture of the race. The survey (from Democratic pollster Tulchin Research and Republican pollster J. Wallin Opinion Research, and conducted on behalf of Choose Children 2018, which advocates for early childhood education) puts Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom out in front at 26 and finds Republican businessman John Cox grabbing the second spot with 16, an arrangement we've seen in a few polls this year.
The rest of the Democrats field, however, trails well behind, with state Treasurer John Chiang at 9 and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who frequently polled in second place last year with just 7. Tied with Chiang is a second Republican, Assemblyman Travis Allen, while former State Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin, another Democrat, brings up the rear with just 5. (Former Democratic operative Amanda Renteria appears not to have been tested.)
But while desperate California Republicans would love to see the self-funding Cox make it to the general election, the primary is still almost seven weeks away, and the two major Democrats who are at risk of becoming also-rans—Villaraigosa and Chiang—still have a lot of money to spend.
Villaraigosa in particular has some deep-pocketed allies who are backing his play: A pro-charter schools group just launched a reported seven-figure statewide buy to air a new TV ad that praises Villaraigosa for bringing "both parties together to balance the state budget" (citing an editorial from 1999, back when he was speaker of the Assembly), getting guns off the streets, and reducing crime.
● OK-Gov: Candidate filing closed last week for Oklahoma's June 26 primary, and the state has a list of candidates available here. There will be an Aug. 28 runoff for any contests where no one takes a majority.
GOP Gov. Mary Fallin is termed-out, and there's a crowded primary to succeed her. Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb originally looked like the frontrunner, and he may still be, but a recent survey from Sooner Poll showed former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett with a tiny 22-21 edge over Lamb, while no other candidate in the crowded field topped 8 percent. However, some of the other contenders have the resources to get their names out statewide.
Businessman Kevin Stitt has done some self-funding and has been airing ads. Tulsa attorney Gary Richardson has been generously self-funding as well, but the former U.S. attorney may not exactly be an ideal candidate. Back in 2002, Richardson ran as an independent and took 14 percent of the vote, and plenty of Republicans blamed him for Democrat Brad Henry's tight win. Former state Rep. Dan Fisher and state Auditor Gary Jones are also in, but neither of them seems to have the name recognition or the resources they'll need in order to do well.
While Oklahoma is a very red state, few seem happy with the status quo. Thanks in large part to falling oil prices and tax cuts for the wealthy, the state budget has been a mess for a while. Many school districts have adopted four-day school weeks, and a high-profile teacher walkout only ended last week when the state finally passed millions in new education funding. However, the teachers didn't get the full pay raise or classroom funding they wanted. While Fallin won both her campaigns for governor by double digits, polls have found her incredibly unpopular for a while, and Morning Consult gave her a horrible 25-63 approval rating for the first quarter of the year —the second-worst score for any of the nation's 50 governors.
All the Republicans are calling for change, and Democrats are hoping that Fallin's problems will give them an opening. The party has largely consolidated behind former state Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who narrowly lost the 2010 primary for governor. Edmondson's main primary foe is former state Sen. Connie Johnson, who badly lost a 2014 Senate general election and has raised very little money for her new campaign.
● SC-Gov: Campaign finance reports covering the first three months of 2018 were due last week. On the GOP side, Gov. Henry McMaster outraised former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton, who looks like his chief rival in the June primary, $741,000 to $558,000. The two were raising a very similar amount of cash through much of 2017, and McMaster still has a relatively small $3 million to $2.5 million cash-on-hand edge against her.
Insiders have suggested that wealthy businessman John Warren could bring in enough money to match either McMaster or Templeton, but so far, he's not doing it. Warren raised $160,000 from donors and self-funded another $550,000, leaving him with $266,000 in the bank. Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant only raised $22,000 and had $183,000 in the bank, while former Lt. Gov. Yancey McGill had all of $423 on-hand. If no one takes a majority of the vote on June 12, there would be a runoff two weeks later.
On the Democratic side, state Rep. James Smith, the establishment favorite, raised $403,000 and had $622,000 on-hand. Attorney Marguerite Willis raised $130,000 from donors and self-funded an additional $460,000, leaving her with a comparable $598,000 war chest. Businessman Phil Noble says he raised $85,000 and had $50,000 to spend; Noble's campaign says an error with the State Election Commission's website has prevented them from uploading their reports even a week after they were due, while the Commission says there have been no malfunctions.
House
● AZ-08: Democrat Hiral Tipirneni has debuted her final TV ad ahead of Tuesday's special election. The spot attacks Congress for scandals, corruption, and passing tax breaks for billionaires, while it labels "career politician" Republican Debbie Lesko as "just more of the same." The commercial praises Tipirneni as an "ER physician, not a politician," and it argues she'll fight for everyday Arizonans by protecting Social Security and Medicare. Lastly, Tipirneni highlights her endorsement from the conservative-leaning Arizona Republic editorial board (For context, Hillary Clinton was the first Democratic presidential nominee the paper ever endorsed).
Meanwhile, national Republicans continue to try to boost Lesko's campaign. Trump himself recorded robocalls for Lesko that have been going out since earlier this month. Additionally, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy went to hold a fundraiser with Lesko in Arizona on Thursday, while House Speaker Paul Ryan held a D.C. fundraiser for her on Wednesday. Outside groups affiliated with national Republicans have spent roughly $1 million on Lesko's behalf so far, and it's telling that they're even remotely worried about a seat that Trump won by 58-37.
● IA-03: Insurance company owner Eddie Mauro is up with his first TV spot ahead of the June Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. David Young. Mauro appears in a classroom and says that as a former teacher, he's "heard every excuse in the book." A montage of kids then appear saying why they didn't do their homework ("Aliens!" exclaims one), before Mauro declares that he won't accept any excuses. He pledges to fight for a progressive agenda, and continues, "when Trump and Ryan get out of line," before the camera shows him locking cell phones in a desk.
Mauro, who hails from a prominent South Side Des Moines political family, had the largest war chest of any of the three Democratic candidates at the end of March. Mauro only raised $37,000 from donors during the quarter, but he self-funded another $100,000, leaving him with $336,000 on-hand. Businesswoman Cindy Axne, who was endorsed by EMILY's List this month, raised $137,000 for the quarter, self-funded another $18,000, and ended with $251,000 on-hand.
Longtime Iowa political operative Pete D'Alessandro picked up an endorsement from Bernie Sanders earlier this year, and it does seem to have helped him raise money: D'Alessandro took in $149,000 for the quarter, almost twice as much as what he'd brought in from late August to the end of 2017. However, the $120,000 he had in the bank was significantly smaller than what either of his two rivals had. Young raised $220,000 for the quarter, which is pretty meh for an incumbent in a competitive seat, but he ended March with a $1 million war chest.
● MN-01: Both parties will hold their endorsement conventions on Saturday in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, where Democratic Rep. Tim Walz is leaving to run for governor. This seat swung hard from 50-48 Obama to 53-38 Trump, but both sides are preparing for a competitive general election campaign.
The outcome of the convention could play a big role in deciding who wins the August primaries, especially for Team Blue. The four notable Democratic candidates are former Defense Department official Dan Feehan; attorney Joe Sullivan; Army Reserves veteran Rich Wright; and former state Sen. Vicki Jensen.
The Minnesota Post's Sam Brodey wrote in late March that all four Democrats each agreed to drop out of the race if one of their opponents wins the endorsement. However, it takes the support of 60 percent of the delegates to win the convention, and as we saw last week in the 8th District, it's always possible no one will hit this threshold even after multiple ballots.
Of the four Democrats, Feehan is very clearly winning the money race. Feehan had $348,000 in the bank at the end of March, while Wright was in second place with just $69,000. However, Feehan only recently moved back to southern Minnesota after years away, something his opponents haven't ignored. Sullivan has the support of a number of unions, which could help him on the convention floor. Of course, races like this are very hard to handicap, and we'll just need to see how Saturday shapes up.
On the GOP side, state Sen. Carla Nelson is facing off with businessman Jim Hagedorn, who was the nominee over the last two cycles. Nelson has explicitly said that she'll remain in the primary even if Hagedorn wins the party endorsement, while Hagedorn doesn't appear to have said what he'd do if Nelson won it. But back in 2014, Hagedorn actually dropped out of the race after a rival candidate won the endorsement, but he got back in and won the primary a few months later.
Hagedorn, who had a months-long fundraising head start over Nelson, held a $330,000 to $216,000 cash-on-hand edge at the end of March, but he has several flaws that could make him a very problematic nominee. In 2014, Hagedorn attracted bad headlines when his old writings denigrating … well, almost everyone, surfaced. Sample: In 2002, he called Washington's two female U.S. senators "undeserving bimbos in tennis shoes."
● MN-08: On Wednesday, former FBI analyst Leah Phifer dropped out of the August Democratic primary. Phifer was the top vote-getter at Saturday's party convention, and she led former state Rep. Joe Radinovich by a 48-42 margin with delegates on the tenth and final ballot. However, neither of them had the support of 60 percent they needed to win the party endorsement, and Phifer said on Wednesday that she wouldn't continue her campaign without it.
Phifer's departure is a relief to outgoing Rep. Rick Nolan and his allies, who worked against her at the convention. Phifer was challenging Nolan for the party endorsement before he decided to retire in February, and some party leaders also worried that her opposition to local mining projects and her weak fundraising would harm Democrats' chances of holding this seat in the general election.
Four Democrats are still in the running, though it's possible that someone will decide to jump in before the June 5 filing deadline. Only two of the candidates, Radinovich and state Rep. Jason Metsa, raised more than $100,000 during their first months in the race; Metsa led Radinovich $117,000 to $95,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of March. Both are Nolan allies, and Radinovich was the congressman's campaign manager during his tight 2016 re-election bid.
North Branch Mayor Kirsten Kennedy and former local TV news anchor Michelle Lee are also still running, but neither of them has much money or activist support. Each candidate took only 5 percent of the delegates at the convention, while Lee led Kennedy $16,000 to $3,000 in cash-on-hand. (A previous Digest incorrectly had Kennedy holding $27,000 on-hand.) However, it's possible that Lee's long TV career will help her with primary voters. The winner will likely take on St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber, who faces little opposition for the GOP nod.
● MT-AL: This week, former state Sen. Lynda Moss announced that she was dropping out of the June Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte. Moss had trouble raising cash during her time in the race, especially compared to her intra-party rivals.
● OH-12: The far-right House Freedom Caucus recently endorsed Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan in the May 8 GOP primary, and their allied super PAC, House Freedom Action, has begun a $187,000 ad campaign for her. And surprise! The group is partially funded by prolific megadonor Richard Uihlein.
The spot stars Rep. Jim Jordan, a Freedom Caucus grand moff who represents a neighboring House seat, praising Leneghan as a "businesswoman, wife, mother, and Christian" who is not a career politician. Jordan then goes on to say that she fought a multi-million dollar tax increase, and concludes that she "will do what Republicans are supposed to do."
State Sen. Troy Balderson, who is one of Leneghan's many primary opponents in this suburban Columbus seat, is also up with a new ad. Once again, Balderson emphasizes how physically active he is; the commercial begins with the candidate biking ahead of a tractor, before he talks about using "conservative grit to build the darn wall." (He's probably not volunteering to build it himself.) Balderson goes on to talk about his endorsements and says he has an A-rating from the NRA, "so Nancy Pelosi and her gang of liberals won't like me." Weirdly, as the audio plays of him saying that last bit, the ad instead shows a closeup of Balderson muttering something (we have no idea what), which is pretty jarring for the viewer.
● OK-01: GOP Rep. Jim Bridenstine promised during his successful 2012 campaign to only serve three terms, and he seemed intent to actually keep that pledge even before Donald Trump nominated him to serve as head of NASA. On Thursday, the Senate confirmed Bridenstine 50-49, but there won't be a special election for the final months of his term until November. This seat, which includes all of Tulsa and some of the surrounding areas, went from 66-34 Romney to 61-33 Trump, and the GOP should have little trouble keeping it.
Five Republicans filed to run to succeed Bridenstine in the regularly-scheduled June primary, and there's no obvious frontrunner. Businessman Kevin Hern, who owns and operates several local McDonald's locations, has decisively outraised his rivals with donors and done some additional self-funding, and he had a $407,000 war chest at the end of March.
Former Tulsa County District Attorney Tim Harris, whose 16-year tenure was the longest in county history, had $130,000 in the bank, though he likely begins with plenty of name recognition (about 80 percent of this seat lives in Tulsa County). Former Army intelligence officer Andy Coleman and state Sen. Nathan Dahm had $107,000 and $47,000 to spend, respectively, while pastor Danny Stockwill had little cash. So far, major outside groups haven't taken sides.
Democrats haven't won a Tulsa-based House seat since former Rep. James Jones last won re-election all the way back in 1984, and it's going to be very hard to change that. Attorney Tim Gilpin, a former state Board of Education member and as an assistant state attorney general, got some attention when he jumped in last month, but he only has $10,000 to spend.
● OK-02: GOP Rep. Markwayne Mullin also pledged during his first 2012 campaign to only serve three terms in the House, but he announced last year he'd try to stay in the House anyway. Mullin faces a primary rematch this cycle from Army veteran Jarrin Jackson. Last cycle, when Mullin started to back away from his old term-limit ledge, former Sen. Tom Coburn backed Jackson, but the congressman won 62-38.
We'll see if Jackson does any better now that Mullin actually has broken his promise, but his last showing isn't exactly encouraging. At the end of March, Mullin held a $544,000 to $114,000 cash-on-hand edge over Jackson, who has done some self-funding. Two other Republicans are running (including Northeastern State University professor Brian Jackson, who is not related to Jarrin Jackson), so it's possible this could go to a runoff. This rural eastern Oklahoma seat is ancestrally blue, but this 73-23 Trump district is unlikely to return to its roots anytime soon.
● OK-05: This Oklahoma City-based seat shifted from 59-41 Romney to 53-40 Trump, and while it's still very red turf, it may be in play in a strong Democratic year. Six Democrats are challenging sophomore GOP Rep. Steve Russell, and the most notable is nonprofit director Kendra Horn. Russell held a $349,000 to $120,000 cash-on-hand lead over Horn at the end of March, which isn't a huge advantage for an incumbent in a seat that hasn't been seriously targeted in a very long time. However, Horn's high burn rate (she has spent more than half of the $287,000 she's raised during the entire campaign with a long time to go before Election Day) could be problematic.
● PA-04: Former Rep. Allyson Schwartz, who used to represent much of Montgomery County in Congress before she left to unsuccessfully run for governor in 2014, has endorsed state Rep. Madeleine Dean in the May 15 Democratic primary. Dean has the support of much of the Montgomery County political establishment even though one of her two primary rivals, former Rep. Joel Hoeffel, is a former county commissioner.
Actually, it may be partially because Hoeffel is a former county commissioner. Commission Chair Valerie Arkoosh, who has not endorsed either Dean nor gun-safety activist Shira Goodman, put out a video over the weekend saying she was "very disappointed to find the mess that Joe left behind at the county, and I continue to this day to clean that mess up." Arkoosh went on to detail how bad the county's financial situation was under Hoeffel, and said there was "a grand jury report that raised serious ethical questions about Joe's behavior."
As the local NPR affiliate WHYY explains, Hoeffel spent his final term as commissioner in an alliance to run the three-member commission with Republican colleague James Matthews against another GOP member. A 2011 grand jury report was considerably tougher on Matthews, who would be accused of perjury (the charge was dropped eventually), than Hoeffel, who was never charged with anything. However, the report alleged that commissioners were recklessly using taxpayer money and giving away jobs and contracts. Hoeffel said at the time that the report was sloppy, and he defended his record on the commission to WHYY this week.
● PA-05: The state AFL-CIO has endorsed former Philadelphia Deputy Mayor Rich Lazer in the very crowded May 15 Democratic primary for this very blue seat. Lazer, who is campaigning for a seat that's mostly located in suburban Delaware County, has plenty of labor support, though his $136,000 war chest was a bit less than what many of his rivals had to spend.
Former federal prosecutor Ashley Lunkenheimer led the field in fundraising with $350,000 raised from donors during the quarter; she self-funded another $52,000, and ended with $307,000 in the bank. Attorney Mary Gay Scanlon, who is backed by former Gov. Ed Rendell, raised $254,000 from donors and loaned her campaign another $150,000, leaving her with $327,000 on-hand.
Financial advisor Lindy Li had just shy of $200,000 in the bank, but almost all of that was cash left over from the 2016 cycle, when she failed to make the ballot; Li only raised $18,000 during the first three months of 2018. Bioengineer Molly Sheehan spent months running for a more conservative version of this seat before the map was congressional redrawn, and while she only raised $27,000 for the quarter, she had $183,000 in the bank at the end of March.
None of the other many candidates had so much as $80,000 to spend. But one candidate we hadn't mentioned yet, journalist David Wertime, took in $102,000 for the quarter and ended with $77,000 on-hand. But state Reps. Greg Vitali and Margo Davidson only had $47,000 and $21,000 in the bank, respectively. Meanwhile, Chester Mayor Thaddeus Kirkland, along with teacher and now ex-Vitali friend Larry Arata, each had less than $10,000 to spend.
● PA-07: The May 15 GOP primary for this open 49-48 Clinton seat in the Lehigh Valley hasn't gotten nearly as much national attention as the Democratic contest, and so far, GOP donors aren't exactly tuning in either. Lehigh County Commissioner Marty Nothstein outraised businessman Dean Browning, a former member of the commission, $53,000 to $41,000. Browning threw down $163,000 of his own money to Nothstein's $125,000; however, Nothstein led him $232,000 to $172,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of March.
Nothstein is making use of his financial edge to go on the air first. The spot begins with footage of the champion cyclist at the 2000 Summer Olympics and a picture of the candidate carrying a child on his bike, as the narrator tells the audience that the candidate won Olympic gold and silver medals. He goes on to detail how Nothstein started his own business and cut taxes, then says he'll bring "common-sense conservatism" to Congress.
Three notable Democrats are also competing for this competitive seat. Pastor Greg Edwards had a $236,000 to $191,000 cash-on-hand lead over John Morganelli, the conservative Northampton County district attorney. Former Allentown Solicitor Susan Wild had a smaller $105,000 in the bank. Unlike in the GOP field, none of the candidates have done much self-funding during the campaign.
● PA-13: Dermatologist John Joyce is out with three new ads for the May 15 GOP primary for this safely red rural seat. The 30-second one features a mother praising Joyce for saving her son's life from what could have been a fatal infection. The two 15-second spots featuring the candidate talking about his opposition to abortion and support for the NRA, respectively.
This is another very crowded primary for an open Pennsylvania House seat. State Rep. Stephen Bloom led Joyce, who has been self-funding most of his campaign, $194,000 to $136,000 in cash-on-hand at the end of the quarter. None of the other candidates had more than $100,000 in the bank, though businessman Art Halvorson, who almost won in 2016 against retiring Rep. Bill Shuster, came close with a $96,000 war chest. State Sen. John Eichelberger, a longtime Altoona politician, had $55,000 on-hand.
Legislative, Mayoral
● VA State House, Virginia Beach, VA Mayor: Sometimes, a seemingly small political development can have enormous consequences, and that just might prove true in this case. On Wednesday, Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms unexpectedly announced he'd resign at the end of the month, saying he wanted to join the private sector to better support his family. That move will trigger a special election this November to replace him, and Republican state Del. Glenn Davis quickly said he's considering the race, with an unnamed source telling the Richmond Times-Dispatch that he's "likely" to run.
What makes this all so interesting is that Republicans, of course, hold a bare 51-49 majority in the state House, following last year's immense Democratic wave. If Davis were to win the mayoralty, that would trigger a second special election on which control of the entire House would rest—and man would that race be intense. Davis only won re-election last year by a 52-48 margin against Democrat Veronica Coleman, even though Democrats didn't make his seat a top target, and his district, the 84th, went for Donald Trump by just a 49-45 margin and Mitt Romney by an even narrower 50-49 spread. You can be sure that both sides would throw everything they have at this one.
But, as we said, Davis would first have to win the Virginia Beach race, which local Democrats themselves would probably very much like to win. The contest will officially be nonpartisan, and the city itself is very evenly divided politically. Sessoms, a Republican, himself twice won re-election by huge margins after narrowly ousting the previous Democratic incumbent in 2008, so Virginia Beach is a tricky burg to handicap, and we don't yet know what the Democratic field will look like. But if Davis pulls this one off, things will get absolutely crazy for the state House.
Grab Bag
● Statehouse Action: This Week in Statehouse Action: Blame It On The Rain edition has the latest on the worsening Greitens/GOP debacle in Missouri, a final (for real this time?) death knell for Republican-engineered Senate recalls in Nevada, Medicaid expansion updates in Virginia, Tennessee being terrible, and more!
Does missing out on state politics updates give you that rainy day feeling again? Stay sunny all the time by signing up here to get This Week in Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each Thursday
