A typical family of four in the First DIstrict of Tennessee earning an income of around $58,367 will receive a tax cut of around $1620 under the new tax code.
That’s what incumbent Rep. Phil Roe told his constituents today in a newsletter boasting about his support of the December 2017 tax law amendments for which he proudly voted.
Is Roe telling the whole truth?
As explained below, there is good reason to think that Roe is once again misleading his constituents.
Rep. Roe doesn’t provide sources for his claim that the First District has a “typical” family size of four, or that this “typical” family has a “typical” income of $58,367.
According to the most recent data from the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development (“TDECD”), Roe’s numbers are wildly atypical.
Copied below are TDECD published figures for the median household income and household size in each of the counties of the First District.
Simple inspection shows that not a single county in the First District has figures that match the ones used by Rep Roe in his newsletter. No county in the district has a “typical” household size of four, and not a single county comes anywhere near Rep. Roe’s “typical” family income. Indeed:
- Average household size across counties in the First DIstrict ranges from 2.28 to 2.55 persons per household, or between 57% and 63% of Roe’s supposedly “typical” figure of four persons.
- Average household income across counties in the First District ranges from $27,973 to $44,444, or between 48% and 76% of Roe’s supposedly “typical” figure of $58,367.
Here are the specific TDECD figures for median household income and average household size in the various counties of the First District.
Jefferson County = income $43,673; average 2.58 persons per household
Sevier County = income $42,586; average 2.53 persons per household
Cocke County = income $31,081; average 2.40 persons per household
Unicoi County = income $35,390; average 2.28 persons per household
Hamblen County = income $39,270; average 2.55 persons per household
Hancock County = income $27,973; average 2.34 persons per household
Greene County = income $36,711; average 2.42 persons per household
Hawkins County = income $37,883; average 2.43 persons per household
Carter County = income $33,177; average 2.32 persons per household
Sullivan County = income $40,983; average 2.34 persons per household
Washington County = income $44,444; average 2.31 persons per household
Johnson County = income $30,180; average 2.31 persons per household
Why did Rep. Roe choose to communicate about the tax bill with numbers that exaggerate the size of typical East Tennessee households and the size of typical household income? Well — Roe only measures the effects of the bill in one-sided terms of immediate tax cuts, and ignores increases to resulting deficits. Since tax cuts increase as income level increases, Roe’s exaggerations of household size and income make the impact of the tax cut on an average household seem bigger.
This is not the first time that Rep. Roe’s statements mislead voters with faulty reasoning or erroneous math. He has failed, however, to smokescreen the cruel effects of his economic voting record, despite doubling down on flawed propaganda. Once again, simple fact-checking of Roe’s messages shows indifference to the financial circumstances faced by ordinary people and knee-jerk favoritism to the special economic interests of corporations and the wealthy.
Enough is enough. It’s time for some Responsible Change.