The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TN-Sen: Republican Sen. Bob Corker is retiring this year, but he isn't going away quietly, much to the chagrin of national Republicans. Corker recently heaped praise upon former Gov. Phil Bredesen, who is the likely Democratic nominee running to replace him, calling him "a very good mayor, a very good governor, a very good business person."
Campaign Action
Corker has previously said he'll support Rep. Marsha Blackburn, who is the likely Republican nominee, but that wasn't good enough for Senate GOP leadership. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly urged Trump to publicly respond, which he did by endorsing Blackburn in a tweet on Thursday. In response, Corker went on CNN on Sunday, and in a painfully awkward segment with Dana Bash, he tried to have it both ways. Corker repeatedly said he's supporting "the nominee" without mentioning Blackburn by name, but he called Bredesen a friend and said he's "not gonna campaign against him."
When asked why he's backing Blackburn, Corker halfheartedly talked about how her first vote will be for the majority leader. Bash then followed up by stating, "Senator, that's not a ringing endorsement of Marsha Blackburn to say that she should be elected just because she's going to vote for Mitch McConnell." After several excruciating seconds where he struggled to formulate a response, Corker replied, "I'm supporting the nominee … and I don't know what else to say." In other words, very much not a ringing endorsement of his party's likely nominee to replace him.
1Q Fundraising
Be sure to keep our Senate fundraising roundup handy, since we update that as new numbers come in. You can also find our complete House roundup here.
● MO-Sen: Josh Hawley (R): $1.5 million raised, $2.12 million cash-on-hand
● MT-Sen: Matt Rosendale (R): $307,000 raised, $541,000 cash-on-hand
● VA-Sen: Nick Freitas (R): $350,000 raised, $250,000 cash-on-hand
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Well what do you know: While Arizona Republicans recently seemed to be backing off of a proposal to change the law to avoid a 2018 special election in case GOP Sen. John McCain's seat becomes vacant before June, the Washington Post is now reporting Republicans are now pushing ahead with the effort and will vote on the bill in the coming days. Democratic legislators have said they are opposed, and Republicans lack the two-thirds majorities needed to pass this type of bill if Democrats are unified against it.
● FL-Sen: Republican Gov. Rick Scott is quickly ramping up his ad campaign since jumping into the Senate race earlier this month, and he recently put $1 million behind a Spanish-language TV ad. The commercial features shots of Scott taking credit for jobs created during his tenure and for cutting taxes, while he criticizes the dysfunction in Washington.
● IN-Sen: Republican Rep. Luke Messer is out with a new ad hitting primary opponent Mike Braun for not being a "true red" Republican, so to speak.
Messer—personally and to-camera, not through use of an unseen narrator—claps back at Braun's self-branding as a political "outsider," claiming that Braun's been a politician for "14 years." Messer also mocks Braun for the latter's use of cardboard cutouts in his own attack ad.
Messer then goes on to call Braun a "Democrat, even during the Obama years"—a reference to Braun's many votes in Democratic primaries, since voters do not register by party in Indiana. (Braun has claimed those primary votes were "crossover" attempts to impact the outcomes of those races in ways he thought would ultimately favor the Republican candidate in the general election.) Messer then hits Braun for voting to raise taxes "47 times" over his three-year tenure as a Republican member of the state legislature before assuring the viewer that he, Messer, is the authentic, Trump-supporting conservative in the race.
There's no word yet on the size of the buy for this 30-second spot.
● MS-Sen-B: Mason-Dixon has given us our first independent poll of Mississippi's nonpartisan Senate special election, going into the field from April 12-14 and having a sample size of 625 registered voters. The survey finds appointed GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith beating former U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy, a Democrat, by 46-34 in a hypothetical runoff.
Democrats fare much better if ultra-conservative state Sen. Chris McDaniel were to beat Hyde-Smith for the other runoff spot: Mason-Dixon shows him actually trailing Espy by 42-40. However, the pollster did not release numbers on the first round, where all candidates run on a single nonpartisan ballot and the top-two advance if no one wins a majority.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has debuted a new TV ad to attack McDaniel. Their spot castigates him for being a "trial lawyer" who supposedly has wrongfully sued businesses and "folks just trying to make a living."
● MT-Sen: The Koch-affiliated Americans for Prosperity has shelled out $560,000 to run TV and digital ads to attack Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. Their TV spot goes after Tester on Obamacare and calls it a failure.
● OH-Sen: One of our biggest pet-peeves is campaigns that announce they've raised a solid amount of cash without revealing how much of that haul came from the candidate's own wallet. Take GOP Rep. Jim Renacci, who brought in $500,000 from donors while self-funding another $4 million during the first three months of the year. Renacci did say when he was announcing he'd brought in $4.5 million that this included "contributions from donors, including the candidate," but you could be forgiven for thinking that donors were responsible for more than 12 percent of his haul.
● WI-Sen: The right-wing Restoration PAC has dropped a 30-second TV spot in support of Republican Kevin Nicholson. The PAC, which is mostly funded by conservative megadonors Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, is putting $1 million behind the buy.
The ad seeks to rehab Nicholson's Democratic past by explicitly comparing him to Ronald Reagan and describing the various ways in which "reality turned [him] into a conservative": specifically, "combat missions in Iraq" and "the birth of his children." The ad goes on to discuss how Nicholson wants to spread the good word about his conservative awakening to the benefit of Wisconsin families. Nicholson's conservative bona fides are ticked off in quick succession: He "believes in the Second Amendment," is against abortion, and "like President Trump," wants to build that border wall.
And just in case you still harbored doubts about Nicholson's political leanings after all of that, the ad closes with text that assures the viewer that he's the "right choice for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin," with the word "right" in red. Get it? Red? Right? Like REPUBLICANS (please forget he spoke at the National Democratic Convention in 2000)?
● WV-Sen: Even by Don Blankenship standards, this ad is just incredible … you know, the way movies like "The Room" are incredible. The spot features an incredibly wooden conversation between two actors in a kitchen declaring that Blankenship, who spent a year in prison for violating federal mine safety laws in connection to the 2010 explosion in the Upper Big Branch Mine that killed 29 miners, was railroaded by the corrupt Obama Justice Department. Watch it, we'll wait. We don't think we've seen anything like it in a campaign ad since the legendary 2012 Howard Berman is effective! spot.
Blankenship may not have used his vast fortune to hire better actors or a better script supervisor (the ad's opening exchange is "Did you know Don Blankenship's trial was not about the mine explosion?" "Really? You sure?"), but he is certainly paying to make sure his many cheap ads get seen ahead of the May 8 GOP primary. Blankenship gave his campaign $1.6 million during the first quarter of the year and spent almost all of that on ads; for some reason, one North Carolina resident contributed $1,000, the only donation the campaign has yet to receive from someone not named Don Blankenship. Blankenship had only $214,000 left to spend, but it's a good bet he'll write himself another big check to keep the ads going.
Gubernatorial
● AZ-Gov: With a teachers' strike coming up on April 26, the Republican Governors Association has put up $330,000 to air a TV ad supporting Republican Gov. Doug Ducey. The spot praises Ducey for proposing a 20 percent increase in teachers' pay by 2020 without raising taxes. Left unsaid is how teachers' unions had rejected the proposed increase, calling it fiscally unsustainable and demanding more funding for schools themselves.
● CO-Gov: On Friday, GOP Secretary of State Wayne Williams announced that, while former state Rep. Victor Mitchell had collected enough valid signatures to make the June GOP primary ballot for governor of Colorado, investment banker Doug Robinson had fallen short. Robinson, a nephew of Mitt Romney, immediately announced that he would challenge the decision in court.
As we've written before, signature gathering is a very expensive and cutthroat process in Colorado. Candidates need 1,500 valid signatures from each of Colorado's seven congressional districts, a time-consuming effort that can cost an estimated $250,000. To make things even more complicated, a voter can only sign one petition for each race: If a voter signs petitions for multiple contenders, it only counts in favor of the first candidate to turn in their signatures. That means that Republican candidates are often fighting for the very small poll of GOP voters in the very blue 1st District and 2nd Districts, and Williams said that it was in the Boulder-based 2nd where Robinson had fallen 22 signatures short of what he needed.
If Robinson can't convince the courts that he had enough valid petitions, he's out of luck. Colorado does allow candidates to also make the ballot by getting enough support at the state party convention, but Robinson chose not to compete there earlier this month. He may have reason to be optimistic that he'll prevail in court, however: Back in 2016, Williams initially said that three of the four candidates who had turned in petitions couldn't make it onto the ballot, but judges gradually ruled that they each had enough valid signatures.
For now at least, there will be three Republicans on the primary ballot. State Treasurer Walker Stapleton also had his own problems with his petitions, but he made the ballot after he won the state party convention. Former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez also took enough support at the convention to make it to the ballot, though he has very little money or name recognition. There's also Mitchell, a former state representative who is self-funding his bid. Stapleton begins the race as the GOP frontrunner no matter what happens to Robinson.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Williams announced that Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne had collected enough petitions to make the ballot. Lynne was the last major candidate who was awaiting a ruling from the secretary of state's office, and it wasn't a sure thing she would make it: Williams said she collected only 56 more valid signatures out of the conservative 4th District than the bare minimum she needed. Lynne will face former state treasurer Cary Kennedy, who won the state party convention; Rep. Jared Polis, who also took enough support at the convention to make the ballot; and former state Sen. Mike Johnston, who also took the petition route.
● GA-Gov: Democratic candidate Stacey Evans is out with an emotional new biographical spot that highlights some of the challenges she and her mom faced as she was growing up.
"The Stacey Evans Story: Part Two" starts off with the image of a small house, possibly a double-wide, which Evans describes as "one of the 16 homes [she] grew up in" that she prefers to forget, as well as where she was living when she called the police on a man who was abusing her mother: "They didn't come." Evans' voice becomes choked with emotion as she goes on to describe her pride in her mother, who "worked 22 years at a truck stop."
Evans then pivots, introducing herself and pledging to work to restore HOPE scholarships, as well as "invest more in" public schools, job training, and apprenticeship programs. She closes by telling viewers that their governor should "believe in you" as text above her logo promises that this ad series is "to be continued ..." There's no word yet on the size of the buy.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Channel 2 Action news released a Democratic gubernatorial primary poll by UGA's School of Public and International Affairs that has Stacey Abrams at 33 percent and Stacey Evans at 15 percent, while 52 percent remain undecided. The poll was conducted April 12-18 with 473 respondents who indicated they had voted in the 2014 or 2016 Democratic primary and would likely vote in the May 22 contest.
On the Republican side, Clay Tippins takes on two of his primary rivals in a new 30-second TV spot with a $500,000 buy. The ad starts with a Casey Cagle stand-in gyrating with an attractive woman as a narrator contrasts his supposed "Georgia values" with championing tax cuts for a strip club—a reference to his role in celebrating the redevelopment of a historic hotel that was also home to said club.
Then, smash cut to a wooded scene, where a faux Hunter Hill wears Revolutionary War garb and hides behind trees as the narrator accuses Hill of talking "like he's Rambo" when he's "really a Benedict Arnold," an indictment of a C rating Hill once received from the NRA as evidence that he secretly supports gun control.
Finally, our humble narrator reveals himself to be none other than Clay Tippins, a "conservative Republican" option in the May 22 primary who totally doesn't like strip clubs, really loves guns, and possesses the sincerity and honestly that he claims the other candidates lack. This "businessman" and "Navy SEAL" pledges to "cut taxes, crush sex trafficking, and get our kids reading."
"Let's roll," he invites the viewer as he stands next to a dog with fur the same color as the red Georgia clay behind them.
Get it? CLAY Tippins?
● IA-Gov: Former state party chair Andy McGuire is up with her first TV ad ahead of the June Democratic primary. McGuire promoted her work as a doctor, and pledges to tackle the mental health crisis. Her campaign says she's spending about $30,000 in their opening buy. Meanwhile, the Iowa Federation of Labor has thrown its support behind state Sen. Nate Boulton, who has earned a good deal of union support so far.
● ID-Gov: With less than a month to go before the May 15 GOP primary, the negative ads are flying in all directions.
Wealthy developer Tommy Ahlquist recently targeted both Lt. Gov. Brad Little and Rep. Raul Labrador, though he he spent significantly more time hitting Little. The lieutenant governor, who is supported by retiring Gov. Butch Otter, has fired back with a commercial accusing Ahlquist of being one of the "one of the Democrats' top donors in Idaho" at a time when "Obama and Pelosi were trying to grab our guns." The narrator also goes after Ahlquist for being "so liberal he wouldn't even vote for Donald Trump over Hillary." Ahlquist said last year that he'd written Marco Rubio's name in, which is not something he should have admitted out loud.
A group called Protect Freedom PAC has also launched a spot that's pro-Labrador and anti-everyone else. The narrator accuses the two of changing direction "quicker than a snake," as a rather menacing-looking serpent is shown on screen. He (the narrator, not the snake) first hits Ahlquist for saying he'd supported Trump but didn't vote for him, and for having "flip-flopped on Common Core and spending." He then charges Little voted to increase funds for Planned Parenthood and raise taxes. The narrator declares, "[W]e need conservatives, not snakes," as what we think is a different snake slithers up to the camera and attacks it—now that's a more terrifying visual than we've seen in a campaign ad before! The rest of the ad promotes Labrador as a great non-snake conservative.
However, one guy who knows Labrador pretty well isn't flocking to his banner. Rep. Mike Simpson, who has served with Labrador since 2011 as one of Idaho's two House members, has endorsed Little.
● IL-Gov: On Thursday, Republican state Sen. Sam McCann announced that he would run in the general election as a conservative independent against his old nemesis, GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner. The unpopular incumbent has been in bad shape for a long time, and he certainly can't afford to lose many conservative voters to McCann if he wants any chance to beat Democrat J.B. Pritzker in the fall.
McCann has had a good relationship with state labor groups, which isn't something too many Republicans can say. Rauner supported a primary challenger against in 2016, and the governor's allied PAC dropped $3 million against the incumbent. However, labor groups helped McCann, who won renomination 53-47. McCann's independent campaign quickly received a $50,000 donation from the Operating Engineers Local 150, and as Capitol Fax points out, they're sure not helping him to stop Pritzker.
● MD-Gov: Former Gov. Parris Glendening, who left office in 2003, has endorsed Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker in the June Democratic primary.
● MO-Gov: The Eric Greitens saga continues, now with a piping fresh new felony charge for the embattled governor.
Greitens, who's already headed to trial May 14 for felony invasion of privacy charges over the semi-nude photos he used to blackmail a woman into silence about their affair, has been indicted on a separate felony of computer tampering. This charge is the result of evidence Republican Attorney General (and U.S. Senate candidate) Josh Hawley revealed and shared with St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner earlier this week that Greitens had illegally used a nonprofit donor list to fundraise for his gubernatorial campaign.
This charge is the latest development in an ongoing back-and-forth between Hawley and Greitens. Their public slapfight began just over a week ago, when the attorney general called on the governor to resign in the wake of an investigation that produced a detailed account of some non-consensual and violent acts between Greitens and a woman with whom he'd been having an affair.
Greitens responded on Monday, when he demanded Hawley recuse himself from investigating Greitens and a charity he founded, The Mission Continues—a request Hawley's office essentially laughed off as having "no merit at all."
Greitens immediately followed up by filing suit against Hawley the very same day, alleging that Hawley's call for the governor to resign created a conflict of interest and calling for any further investigations into himself and his misdeeds be conducted by a special prosecutor. Greitens also filed for a temporary restraining order against Hawley to prevent further investigations in the meantime.
Hawley clapped back by upping the ante: A day after Greitens filed this lawsuit, Hawley publicly announced that he possessed evidence that the governor had—quite probably illegally—used donor and email lists from his nonprofit organization to fundraise for his gubernatorial campaign.
The statute of limitations on that charge expired Sunday, April 22, so Hawley shared his evidence with the House committee investigating Greitens' misdeeds and with the St. Louis Circuit Attorney, who had already charged Greitens with felony invasion of privacy. Gardner beat the deadline with room to spare by filing the new felony charge stemming from this new evidence late Friday.
● NH-Gov: Rep. Annie Kuster has endorsed former state Sen. Molly Kelly in the September Democratic primary.
● OH-Gov: If Attorney General Mike DeWine isn't worried that Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor could beat him in the May 8 GOP primary, he's sure faking it well. DeWine is out with another commercial as part of a $1 million buy that accuses Taylor of voting for a tax increase that her family business benefited from. DeWine went on to whine to The Vindicator's editorial board that he only went negative because Taylor did it first, and he promised to stop if she'll stop.
● WY-Gov, WY-Sen: In a complete surprise, conservative megadonor Foster Friess announced on Friday that he would run in the August GOP primary for governor of Wyoming. Friess had spent months talking about challenging Sen. John Barrasso, despite having described him as "one of my heroes," but he'd given no hint that he was interested in succeeding termed-out Republican Gov. Matt Mead. Politico reports that Friess only began informing party leaders he would seek the governorship the very day he declared for the race. Friess, who pledged to serve just one term, also endorsed his would-have-been rival Barrasso.
Friess rose to prominence in 2012 when he spent millions on a super PAC backing Rick Santorum's presidential campaign, which was basically the only thing keeping Santorum afloat for months. He also generated a firestorm over birth control during that campaign when he explained, "Back in my days, they used Bayer Aspirin for contraceptives. The gals put it between their knees and it wasn't that costly." Santorum only half-heartedly distanced himself from Friess by calling his comments a "stupid joke" and "not reflective of me," though the two remained friendly. Friess has continued to bankroll Republican candidates and causes—now including his own.
Friess' decision to run will shake up what's been a pretty low-key primary, though it's hard to know exactly what impact he'll have. Wyoming is a small state where personal campaigning is still very valuable, so even if Friess outspends his rivals, his money may not be as useful as it would be in places where politicians mainly communicate with voters through advertising. It's also worth noting that Friess, who isn't originally from Wyoming, resides in the affluent resort community of Jackson Hole, which is quite different from the rest of the state and is its best-known liberal bastion. Friess has also devoted himself more to national politics than to state-level affairs, and it's unclear how local GOP voters perceive him—or if they're even aware of him.
We likewise don't know what sort of ties Friess has to the state GOP power players he appears to have caught off guard. But Friess did spent months talking about challenging his "hero" Barrasso, who is in good standing with party regulars, so he may have made some enemies already. Friess' very strange flirtations with a Senate bid may also indicate that, money aside, he may not have the right mindset for a serious campaign for governor. Friess weirdly wrote an email last year to the Casper Star-Tribune that simultaneously praised Barrasso while also saying he was thinking about running against the senator—and yet repeatedly misspelled the incumbent's name as "Barrosso."
That quirky behavior could certainly cause Friess problems on the campaign trail. Even in an era that's seen a steep decline in local media, local newspaper coverage in Wyoming still carries unusual weight with voters, even in GOP primaries, something that now-Rep. Liz Cheney learned the hard way during her abortive 2014 Senate run. This isn't to say that Friess can't win, especially in a crowded primary. However, while he will shine a big spotlight on a race most of the national media has all but ignored, we just don't know how he'll play at home.
We'll also need to see how the other candidates respond to this very unexpected development. State Treasurer Mark Gordon is the only statewide elected official in the race, and he appears to be the early frontrunner. However, a few other candidates are also in the hunt: businessman Sam Galeotos, prominent attorney Harriet Hageman, and physician Taylor Haynes (who lost the 2014 primary to Mead 54-32). A few other local politicians have also expressed interest in running ahead of the June 1 filing deadline. And though Wyoming was Trump's best state, it twice elected Democrat Dave Freudenthal to the governorship in the previous decade, and the party has consolidated behind former state House Minority Leader Mary Throne.
House
● CA-39: Former GOP Assemblywoman Young Kim has begun what her campaign says is a six-figure ad buy. The first spot, which is airing on cable, features Kim declaring that when her family "came legally" to the country, they wanted opportunity and not handouts. Retiring Rep. Ed Royce, who is supporting Kim, briefly appears in the ad but doesn't say anything.
● CA-48: On Thursday, wealthy businessman Stelian Onufrei announced that he was dropping out of the crowded June top-two primary and endorsing former Orange County Chair Scott Baugh over Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, another fellow Republican.
Onufrei, whose name will still be on the ballot, had pledged to spend $500,000 of his own money when he entered the race over the summer. Onufrei had already deployed $200,000 by March 31, but he never seemed to get much traction. Still, Onufrei's departure from the race (or at least the departure of the remaining $300,000 he said he'd spend), could make it easier for Baugh to grab the second spot in the general election and lock Democrats out.
A new outside group also seems to have the same idea. New OC Future, which is run by two GOP strategists, has begun a cable ad buy attacking Rohrabacher for disregarding his long ago support for term limits and remaining in Congress for 30 years. The narrator argues that Rohrabacher is only out for the money, and accuses him of funneling over $1 million in campaign dollars to his wife.
On the Democratic side, tech executive Rachel Payne is out with a poll from Brilliant Corners arguing she has a good chance to be Rohrabacher's opponent in November. The survey gives the congressman the lead in the top-two primary with 34 percent of the vote, while Payne edges real estate company owner and fellow Democrat Harley Rouda 9-6 for the second place spot; Democrat Hans Keirstead takes 5, while Baugh is at 4.
But a potential problem for Payne is that she doesn't have nearly as much money as her rivals. Payne ended March with $90,000 on-hand, while Keirstead had $642,000 and Rouda had $1.1 million, respectively. Another Democrat, businessman Omar Siddiqui, also had $861,000 on-hand. Payne, who is the only Democrat who hasn't done any self-funding, may be able to stand out as the only woman in the crowded field, but she may still have a tough time getting her name out. It also doesn't help that Payne won't be the only Democratic woman on the ballot; Laura Oatman dropped out a little while ago, but it was too late for her to remove her name.
On the GOP side, Rohrabacher led Baugh $901,000 to $745,000 in cash-on-hand, so Baugh may have the resources he'll need to take some more Republican votes from the incumbent.
● CT-05: Wealthy businessman Mark Greenberg has announced that he'll stay in the GOP race for comptroller rather than seek this open seat for the fourth time.
● FL-06: St. Johns County Commissioner Jimmy Johns has dropped out of the August GOP primary for this open seat. Johns only had $34,000 in the bank at the end of March, which shall we say wasn't going to buy enough J.J. Gargantuans.
● FL-15: The Tampa Bay Times reports that Sean Harper, whom they identify as a prominent homebuilder, will soon announce he's seeking the GOP nomination for this open seat. They also report that Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin and state Rep. Colleen Burton have decided not to run.
● FL-18: We didn't know wealthy physician Mark Freeman, who took third place in the 2016 primary with 16 percent of the vote, was challenging GOP Rep. Brian Mast for renomination, but this um … blunt … new Freeman ad sure made that clear! Stop whatever you're doing and watch it. We insist. And it's apparently airing on TV.
Freeman just stands on a pier and stares directly at the camera and loudly declares in belligerently staccato fashion, "I'm Mark Freeman. A true conservative. Running against Brian Mast. In the Republican primary. In Congressional District 18." It takes Freeman half the ad to convey that very basic bit of information. Freeman continues by pledging "with all my heart to uphold the Second Amendment. And President Trump." We're not sure how you uphold a person, but Freeman adds he'll do it "as a true conservative."
Freeman had less than $2,000 in the bank at the end of March, but he self-funded $1.6 million during his 2016 campaign, so he may be willing to pour it on again. And oh, what a campaign that was! Freeman most notably accused Barack Obama of making "a bold-faced effort to drive a wedge between the races," adding that Obama supposedly tells African-Americans, "'You've got it coming for free. These rich people owe you.'"
Freeman came nowhere close to beating Mast, and he's unlikely to in August. Still, Mast did make some enemies this year when he called for a moratorium on AR-15 sales after the Parkland shooting, so maybe Freeman's fury-driven campaign could get some traction.
● FL-27: Rep. Darren Soto, who represents an Orlando-area House seat, has endorsed state Rep. David Richardson in the August Democratic primary for this open Miami-based district. Soto is the first Florida House member to takes sides in this contest.
● KY-06: Retired combat pilot Amy McGrath is up with another TV spot ahead of the May 22 Democratic primary. The ad begins with video and sounds of Marines firing their weapons in combat, and a veteran named Dennis Santare explains that his unit was cut off and under fire in Iraq. McGrath then says the call came in when they were low on fuel, and only had enough time for one bomb. Santare says that she used her one shot to take out the enemy compound, which turned the tide for them. McGrath concludes that Marines "all know we're on the same team."
● MD-06: The influential Maryland State Education Association has endorsed state Del. Aruna Miller in the June Democratic primary for this open seat.
● NH-02: Former Hillsborough County Treasurer Bob Burns has announced that he's forming an exploratory committee ahead of the September GOP primary to take on Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster. None of the Republicans currently running seem to have caught fire yet, but with Team Red largely on the defensive, it feels unlikely that national Republicans will make this race a priority no matter who gets nominated.
● NV-04: Former Rep. Steven Horsford is getting some help from Georgia Rep. and Civil Rights Movement legend John Lewis, who is hosting a fundraiser for him ahead of the June Democratic primary.
● NY-22: The House Majority PAC is attacking freshman Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney with a new TV and digital ad that hits her for voting for the GOP's "disastrous healthcare plan" that would "impose an age tax charging older Americans more than five times more for coverage." HMP is spending $42,000 on television, $92,000 online, and an additional $10,000 on mailers.
● OH-12: State Sen. Troy Balderson has picked up an endorsement for the May 8 GOP primary from former Rep. Pat Tiberi, who represented Ohio's 12th Congressional District until he resigned at the beginning of the year to lead an industry lobbying group. But Tiberi, who still had a massive $5.78 million in Friends of Tiberi, his old campaign account, at the end of March, isn't stopping there.
Friends of Tiberi is spending $147,000 on an ad starring the former congressman praising Balderson as "a conservative fighter" who shares "the same values and wonderful story that make our country great." This is the second major outside group that's aired ads for Balderson: Defending Main Street, a super PAC set up to stop anti-establishment candidates from winning GOP primaries, recently began a $240,000 ad campaign to support him. Defending Main Street is the political arm of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which Tiberi was involved with in the House.
Tiberi's decision to get involved here may be about a whole lot more than just him liking Balderson. The House Freedom Caucus' allied House Freedom Action group has begun spending for Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan, and some establishment Republicans tell the Columbus Dispatch that they're afraid that she could win the primary. One Republican privately told the paper that they're worried an ultra-conservative nominee like Leneghan could cost them the August special election in this 53-42 Trump seat. (The primary for both the special election and the regular two-year term will be on May 8.)
Another Republican also said that GOP donors were unhappy that they had no idea which non-Leneghan candidate they should back, and frustrated that NRCC chair Steve Stivers was essentially helping Leneghan by refusing to take sides or give them any sort of guidance. Tiberi, who was a close ally of the House leadership, could make it easier to stop Leneghan by declaring that Balderson is the candidate to back. State Sen. Kevin Bacon and Delaware County Prosecutor Carol O'Brien are both competing with Balderson for establishment support.
And national Republicans may have good reason to fear that Leneghan will be a weak nominee. Back in 2012, Leneghan was issued a formal reprimand by her colleagues after Kelly Imler, who was Liberty Township's only front-line female firefighter, recounted Leneghan telling her, "You're the girl, the girl firefighter, the token female." Another firefighter also said that Leneghan had made "snide comments about Imler being a single woman and sleeping in the same engine house as 'all those male firefighters."
Imler asked Leneghan to apologize, which she refused to do. Leneghan instead declared that Imler had just misunderstood her comments, and that the firefighters were taking revenge on her now for voting against putting a fire levy on the ballot. This story hasn't resurfaced on the campaign trail during the primary, but it could certainly do Leneghan some harm in a general election.
No one has released any polling for the primary, though the Dispatch reports that a recent private survey showed Balderson leading Leneghan 22-17. However, new campaign finance reports indicate that GOP donors were already flocking to Balderson despite all the confusion about whom to support. Balderson outraised Leneghan $290,000 to $216,000 during the first three months of 2018, while economist Tim Kane took in $183,000. Bacon and O'Brien, who are reportedly the other establishment favored-candidates, raised only $147,000 and $100,000, respectively.
Balderson ended March with $281,000 on-hand, while Kane, who self-funded another $244,000, had $267,000 to spend. Leneghan, who loaned her campaign an additional $160,000, had $245,000 in the bank; O'Brien had $163,000 available, while Bacon had just shy of $100,000 to spend.
The Democrats also have a primary here, but the local party establishment very quickly consolidated behind Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor. O'Connor had $137,000 on-hand at the end of March, considerably more than the $37,000 that former Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott, who narrowly lost renomination in 2016, had available. Farmer John Russell had only $29,000 to spend.
● PA-04: EMILY's List has joined much of the local Democratic establishment and endorsed state Rep. Madeleine Dean in the May 15 primary for this Montgomery County-based seat.
● PA-05: While former Philadelphia Deputy Mayor Rich Lazer doesn't have nearly as much money available as some of his rivals in the May 15 Democratic primary, he's the only candidate with a well-funded super PAC in his corner. Middle Class PAC, which was recently set up by the influential and controversial Electricians union leader John Dougherty, has begun what the Philadelphia Inquirer reports is a $200,000 cable TV buy in support of Lazer. The narrator declares that the candidate is "[F]ocused like a laser" on improving access to pre-K, better pay for teachers, and forgiving college loans.
● TX-02: State Rep. Kevin Roberts is going back on the air ahead of his May 22 GOP runoff with retired Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw. The ad features footage of the flooding from Hurricane Harvey last year, and Roberts calls what happened "a failure of leadership" due to "red tape and bureaucracy." Roberts says he "sounded the alarm long before the storm," before a narrator jumps in and says he's working with the Trump administration "to prevent another disaster."
● VA-05: EMILY's List has endorsed journalist Leslie Cockburn ahead of the May 5 party convention, where Democrats will pick their nominee against GOP Rep. Tom Garrett.
● WV-03: Former state GOP chair Conrad Lucas is out with a spot ahead of the May 8 primary promoting his very deep local roots. Lucas tells the audience that the state was a wild place when his family arrived hundreds of years ago with "gamblers, moonshiners, and even a famous feud or two."
Lucas declares that the West Virginia Way is settling problems face-to-face, and he says he's disappointed with negative campaign ads. Lucas then immediately says he supports the Trump agenda, because when you think of a positive guy who settles his problems face-to-face in Lucas' West Virginia Way, you think Donald Trump.
Grab Bag
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