Senate
● ND-Sen: Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is going up with her first re-election ads, which Roll Call reports will be a six-figure TV ad buy and five-figures for digital. The TV spot is a minute long and features five of Heitkamp's six siblings taking turns talking to the camera while folksy music plays. The Heitkamp clan relays what it was like to grow up in a working-class family in a crowded house; they playfully jest that Heidi's chore was laundry, but she often would read books while pretending to work. The commercial closes with Heitkamp's family praising her for being caring, nice, and knowing how to compromise.
● NV-Sen: On behalf of the nonpartisan news site the Nevada Independent, the Democratic firm the Mellman Group is out with a survey giving GOP Sen. Dean Heller a slim 40-39 lead over Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen, which is about what we'd expect. Heller posts a meh 38-40 favorable rating, while Rosen is largely unknown at 20-15. But ominously for Heller, Donald Trump has a 39-56 score.
● OH-Sen: Donald Trump has endorsed Rep. Jim Renacci in the Republican primary for Senate, and that comes at an awkward time for investment banker Mike Gibbons, who is running against Renacci. Indeed, Gibbons' just launched a new TV ad that tries to tie himself to Trump on draining the swamp of career politicians and former lobbyists like Renacci.
● RI-Sen: Well this sure would be something for the record books: Former Gov. and Sen. Lincoln Chafee said on Wednesday that he is "90 percent sure" he'll run in the Democratic primary against incumbent Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse this year, citing the latter's support for Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential primary as a major reason for doing so. Yes, the same Lincoln Chafee who lost his Senate seat to Whitehouse in 2006 ... back when Chafee was a Republican.
Of course, such a bizarre move would be nothing too unusual for Chafee, whose political career has evolved over time from respected centrist Republican who opposed the Iraq War into the brunt of jokes over his quixotic 2016 Democratic presidential primary bid. While Chafee did win a single term as governor in 2010 as an independent following his 2006 defeat, he finished his term as a Democrat and didn't seek re-election in 2014 due to his abysmal approval rating. Whitehouse has done little to give Democratic primary voters a reason to fire him, and it seems very unlikely that Chafee will be doing much more than tilting at windmills once again.
● TN-Sen: Mason-Dixon is the rare independent pollster to test Tennessee's Senate race, and they have former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen leading by 46-43 over Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn. Several polls in this contest have given Bredesen the advantage while a few have seen Blackburn ahead, but most of those have been from partisan outfits. Mason-Dixon's result isn't quite as favorable to Bredesen as a Middle Tennessee State University poll last month that had him up 45-35, but it's notable that he's creeping ever closer to 50 percent in such a red state.
● WV-Sen: Once again employing the bipartisan duo of Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research and Republican firm Shaw & Company Research, Fox News has released a poll of West Virginia's May 8 Republican primary for Senate. Their survey finds Rep. Evan Jenkins with a 25-21 edge over state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, while disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship takes just 16 percent. These numbers are the latest to see Blankenship in third, since a recent National Research Inc. survey had Morrisey leading Jenkins 24-20 while Blankenship was far behind at 12 percent.
One notable tidbit from Fox's poll is that, even among just GOP primary voters, a relatively solid 35 percent approved of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and only 59 percent disapproved. If he can win a similar share of GOP voters in November, Manchin could be in a strong position to win re-election in a state that has quickly become very red at the federal level.
Meanwhile, Morrisey's latest ad attacks Jenkins as a closeted liberal and career politician who supported various Democratic policy proposals and Democratic presidential candidates over the two decades he served as a Democrat in the state legislature.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: Independent Gov. Bill Walker has released an internal poll from Patinkin Research Strategies, but we don't think it means what he thinks it means. Inigo's Patinkin's memo says that their numbers show Walker "in a strong position," but the survey—which is two months old—gives the governor just a 36-33 lead over Republican state Sen. Mike Dunleavy. That's not exactly an intimidating margin considering Dunleavy almost certainly starts the race with far lower name recognition and has yet to even win the Republican nomination.
What's more, for an incumbent to be sitting at just 36 percent, especially in his own polling, seems weak, no matter the size of his lead. However, there hasn't been any independent polling of this contest to give us an idea of where things stand. The only other publicly available poll was an early March survey from Dittman Research for a pro-Dunleavy super PAC that gave him a 47-41 edge.
● CA-Gov, CA-Sen: SurveyUSA has returned to poll the crowded fields for California's top-two statewide primaries. In the governor's race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom leads by 21-18 over former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, a fellow Democrat, to make the November general election, shutting out Republicans entirely. However, businessman John Cox, a Republican, is close behind at 15 percent. These results are little different than their March poll, where Newsom was out in first with 22 percent while Villaraigosa outpaced Cox just 14-11 for the second spot.
For the Senate race, SurveyUSA has Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein taking just 39 percent, but she'd be lucky enough to go into the general election against where she’d be an overwhelming favorite against fringe Republican Patrick Little, who took 18 percent and is openly anti-Semitic and white-supremacist. At 8 percent, Democratic state Sen. Kevin de Leon is actually tied for third place with perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente, who is running in this contest as a Republican.
However, it's hard to compare this survey to their prior poll, or even to what the actual election might look like. SurveyUSA's March poll tested 17 of the candidates on the ballot, but this one only included the aforementioned four candidates and two other minor Democrats who each took 4 percent. On the actual ballot, voters will see 11 Republicans plus each candidate's three-word description of themselves that will appear alongside their names, which for de Leon is "California Senator." With none of the Republicans having the resources to mount a serious campaign, the GOP vote could easily fracture among the split field, letting de Leon face Feinstein in the fall.
● ID-Gov: Sen. Jim Risch has endorsed Lt. Gov. Brad Little ahead of the three-way May 15 GOP primary, joining Gov. Butch Otter in his corner.
● IL-Gov: Victory Research has released their first poll of the general election in Illinois' gubernatorial race, and they have Democratic nominee J.B. Pritzker demolishing GOP Gov. Rauner by a 49-31. That margin is identical to the 46-28 advantage Pritzker had in an Ogden & Fry poll from a month ago, and if Rauner has any more optimistic polling, he hasn't released it.
● MD-Gov: Democratic Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger, who represents a Baltimore-area House seat, has endorsed Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz in the crowded Democratic primary for governor.
● NV-Gov: The nonpartisan Nevada Independent is out with a survey from the Democratic firm the Mellman Group that gives us a rare look both at the general election for governor of Nevada, as well as polls for each party's June primaries. They find Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who is the likely GOP nominee, leading Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani 40-38, but trailing her colleague Steve Sisolak 43-37. At this point, it seems that Sisolak is running ahead of Giunchigliani because he's better known. Sisolak posts a 35-19 favorable score with statewide voters, while Giunchigliani is at 22-11. Laxalt clocks in at 31-20.
Both Laxalt and Sisolak also begin with clear leads with less than two months to go before their primaries. On the GOP side, Laxalt absolutely annihilates state Treasurer Dan Schwartz 55-4. No, we did not accidentally leave out a digit from Schwartz, whom 81 percent of primary voters don't express an opinion about.
On the Democratic side, Sisolak leads Giunchigliani 44-16. Sisolak has a 58-10 favorable score, while Giunchigliani is at 38-8. While the primary isn't until June 12, early voting begins on May 26, and it will make up most of the total vote. This means that candidates who aren't as well-known as their rivals need to get their names out over the next month before it starts to get too late.
Part of Sisolak's name-recognition edge over Giunchigliani may be because he has been airing ads for weeks, while she only went up with her first spot recently. Sisolak had a hefty $5.75 million to $1 million cash-on-hand edge at the end of 2017, so he'll likely be able to continue to outspend her on TV. However, Giunchigliani's allies at the Nevada State Education Association are giving her some big air support this week with what the Nevada Independent reports is a seven-figure buy.
The NSEA's allied PAC Strong Public Schools Nevada is up with their first ad, which both promotes Giunchigliani and hits Sisolak. The narrator argues that progressive solutions are needed to solve gun violence, education cuts, over-development and attacks on women's health. She then argues that Sisolak is the wrong person, saying that he "brags he's the most conservative Democrat they've ever seen." Sisolak is a self-described moderate who declared in June, "I'm not real liberal, I'm not real conservative."
The narrator goes on to say that Sisolak received an A- rating from the NRA, "voted for construction near Red Rock after taking money from developers, and killed new funding for schools." She concludes that Giunchigliani, a former teacher, will be the one who fights "for school funding, backgrounds checks, and protection for public lands."
● OH-Gov: Democrat Richard Cordray's latest ad focuses on his work protecting the middle class financially when he served as state treasurer, state attorney general, and director of the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
● OK-Gov: The GOP firm Magellan Strategies takes their national tour of GOP primary contests to Oklahoma, where they once again don't have a client involved in the race. They find a 19-19 tie between Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb and wealthy businessman Kevin Stitt, while former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett is close behind with 17. Tulsa attorney Gary Richardson, who has been self-funding, takes 12, while former state Rep. Dan Fisher and state Auditor Gary Jones each are at 5.
The only other recent poll we've seen was a Sooner Poll that found Cornett with a tiny 22-21 edge over Lamb, while no other candidate topped 8. Fisher and Jones have little money or outside help, so they'll probably have a tough time making up ground, but the other four Republicans are well-funded. In the very likely event that no one takes a majority in June, there will be a runoff in August.
While it's no secret that termed-out GOP Gov. Mary Fallin has become very unpopular even in this red state as the economy has suffered, Magellan finds her truly in the pits. They give her a 20-63 approval rating with GOP primary voters; this same sample finds Donald Trump with an 80-14 approval, so it's not like they accidentally sampled the RINO Club of Stillwater. Fallin's toxicity is one big reason that Democrats are optimistic that former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, the party's likely nominee, can put this seat in play. However, with even Republicans tired of the governor, GOP candidates can distance themselves from her without turning off their base.
But while all the Republicans have portrayed themselves as change agents, Lamb goes mostly biographical in his latest ad. Lamb's daughter promotes his career in the Secret Service and devotion to his family, adding that he "has a real plan to fix our state."
● RI-Gov: Former Secretary of State Matt Brown announced on Wednesday that he will run in the Democratic primary against incumbent Gov. Gina Raimondo, who is seeking a second four-year term. Brown had previously considered running as a left-leaning independent, and Democrats at least won't have to worry about him splitting the vote in November.
Raimondo has had her share of stumbles over her first term, and polling has found the general election potentially competitive in this blue-leaning state. However, it's unclear if she's alienated Democrats enough for a primary challenge to succeed, and she's also a strong fundraiser.
Brown is not without his own flaws. He was once a rising star in state politics, having defeated an incumbent secretary of state in the 2002 Democratic primary at just age 32, but his 2006 Senate primary campaign ended disastrously. Brown had directed donors who had already given the maximum to him allowed by federal law to instead donate further funds to Democratic Party committees in other states, which then gave large contributions to Brown's campaign despite the fact that he was of course running in Rhode Island. When the scheme came to light, Brown dropped out of the race.
It's too early to say whether time has rehabilitated Brown's political career, but he's been very absent from the scene over the last decade. However, his primary challenge at the very least creates a headache for Raimondo, who will no longer be able to keep stockpiling her resources ahead of the Sept. 12 primary while Republicans battle it out for their own nomination.
● SC-Gov: Gov. Henry McMaster has debuted his first Republican primary TV ad, which is part of a six-figure buy. The spot features ample footage of a rally where Trump himself endorsed and praised McMaster.
Meanwhile, former state cabinet official Catherine Templeton's latest GOP primary ad focuses on her opposition to abortion rights. Templeton is also receiving outside support from the New American Future Fund, which has a new ad out that lauds her for getting things done, claiming she "fired bureaucrats, saved taxpayer dollars, and took on Obama, and cracked down on illegal immigration."
House
● CA-39: Democrat Gil Cisneros is touting what his campaign calls a "new" poll of the top-two primary for California's 39th Congressional District, but it was actually in the field a month ago. The survey, from Tulchin Research, naturally shows Cisneros leading, but the decision to release it now is nevertheless surprising because he's since started advertising on TV. Given his considerable financial advantage over the rest of the field, you'd think that would have given Cisneros the opportunity to shift things further in his favor (though other candidates have gone up on the airwaves, too). In any event, the full results are below:
Gil Cisneros (D): 19
Shawn Nelson (R): 13
Bob Huff (R): 12
Young Kim (R): 11
Andy Thorburn (D): 10
Mai-Khanh Tran (D): 6
Sam Jammal (D): 4
Karen Lee Schatzle (I): 3
Steven Vargas (R): 2
Undecided: 20
As with an early April poll from Thorburn, the state of play looks very volatile. Given how close together all of these many candidates are, it's more than possible that either party could get locked out of the general election. Again, though, there's a good chance a newer poll would yield different results.
And one important aside: While the primary is not until June 5, the vast majority of Californias now vote by mail, and elections officials can start sending out ballots starting on May 7.
● CT-05: While the GOP tried to recruit well-known state Rep. William Petit for this competitive open seat, he announced on Wednesday that he would instead seek a second term in the legislature. The NRCC didn't even try to hide their dismay that Petit passed, with their spokesman saying it was "disappointing," adding, "He would have been a great candidate, but we respect his decision." The filing deadline isn't until June 12, but the GOP will hold their convention May 11-12, so potential candidates have an incentive to decide before too long.
On the Democratic side, former Simsbury First Selectman Mary Glassman still has no notable opponents, but that may change before too long. While Middletown Mayor Dan Drew said last week that he wasn't interested, he told the Hartford Courant on Wednesday that he was indeed "thinking about it."
However, Drew may not exactly be an ideal candidate. While he was raised in the 5th District, Middletown is split between the neighboring 1st and 3rd Districts. His bid for governor earlier this cycle also did not go well: Drew had problems raising money, and he dropped out in January with his campaign in debt.
● NH-01: Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, who was elected to lead the state's largest city in a competitive race last year, has endorsed Executive Councilor Chris Pappas in the September Democratic primary.
● NJ-03: The New Jersey State Building & Construction Trades Council, which The Observer calls "one of the state's most influential labor groups," has thrown its support behind GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur rather than Democratic rival Andy Kim.
● OH-07: While Navy veteran Ken Harbaugh is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nod on May 8, Rep. Bob Gibbs and the state GOP are doing their part to boost his little-known foe.
The GOP is sending out mailers and running social media ads "attacking" Patrick Pikus as "too liberal" for Ohio, declaring that he "wants to put the unions first, protecting Big Labor," and will "support 'clean energy jobs.'" Gibbs' team says they're worried about Pikus, who had raised all of $5,000 as of April 18, but the state party spokesman didn't even bother to deny they were trying to help Pikus in order to hurt Harbaugh.
● PA-10: Several Democrats are competing on May 15 to take on GOP Rep. Scott Perry in a Harrisburg-based seat that went from 53-46 Romney to 52-43 Trump, and the first quarter fundraising numbers give us an idea of who has the resources to run a serious campaign.
The top fundraiser was Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson, a former Obama administration budget advisor whom we had not previously mentioned. Corbin-Johnson raised $163,000 and ended March with $142,000 in the bank. That's a very big change from the $20,000 she brought in during the prior quarter when she was challenging Perry in the old 4th District, which had backed Trump 59-37. Corbin-Johnson, who is 26, would be the first black woman to ever represent Pennsylvania in Congress, the state's youngest-ever House member, and the youngest congresswoman ever.
Public-health researcher Eric Ding took in $124,000 during his first quarter in the race and self-funded another $46,000; he ended March with $141,000 on-hand, about the same as Corbin-Johnson. Ding also recently went up with a TV spot that features him in a lab explaining to the audience how the top-selling prescription pain-killer Vioxx was "causing hearts attacks and kidney failure." Ding explains that he led a two-year investigation to "expose the drug company knew the risk and hid it from the public. We held them accountable." Army veteran George Scott had only $47,000 on-hand, while Air Force veteran Alan Howe had just $6,000 in the bank.
Perry has never faced a competitive general election, and he doesn't exactly seem to be gearing up for one. The incumbent took in just shy of $100,000 for the quarter, and he had $426,000 on-hand. That's a lot more than what any of the Democrats had available, but it's not insurmountable.
● OH-12: Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan, who has the support of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, kicks off her new ad by telling the audience, "President Obama nearly destroyed the America we love. With God's grace, we elected President Trump, and he needs our help." Leneghan, who is competing in the crowded May 8 GOP primary, goes on to throw around a bunch of conservative pledges.
● TX-02: State Rep. Kevin Roberts, who is competing with retired Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw in the May 22 GOP primary, is up with another TV spot. (Not to be confused with Larry David's "Saturday Night Live" character Kevin Roberts, who is not competing with retired Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw in the May 22 GOP primary and is not airing any TV ads.) Roberts films his ad in a local church, which he identifies as home. He tells the audience that "today's culture demeans Christianity. They say government can solve any problem."
Roberts concludes his attack on his Cultural Straw Man by declaring that they think "[c]haracter doesn't matter. I think they're wrong." Ha, take that! He adds that "Kevin Roberts just got to second base with a lady!" Oh sorry, that's Larry David we're thinking of again.
● TX-07: Attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher is up with her first TV ad for her May 22 Democratic primary runoff against activist Laura Moser. Fletcher speaks directly to the camera in her spot and talks about various people she helped as a lawyer, such as "the young mother who counted on Planned Parenthood for health care" and "the immigrant small-business owner who needed a lawyer to protect her life savings." She concludes by saying, "Now Donald Trump is threatening every Houston family. I approve this message because I’m ready to fight back."
Moser does not yet appear to have gone back on the airwaves, perhaps because she has far fewer resources at her disposal. While both she and Fletcher have raised over $1 million apiece, Fletcher had $392,000 left for the stretch run as of the end of last month while Moser had only $92,000 in the bank.
● TX-21: Former Ted Cruz chief of staff Chip Roy really sprung for both the dramatic music and narrator in his ad for the May 22 GOP runoff. The spot itself is pretty standard, though the narrator's declaration that Roy will "defend the 10th Amendment" is the first time in a long time we think a GOP commercial has mentioned a portion of the Constitution other than the 2nd Amendment. Roy faces businessman and perennial candidate Matt McCall next month.
● TX-27: The anti-tax Club for Growth is launching what they say is a "significant six-figure buy" to aid former Victoria County party chair Michael Cloud in the May 22 GOP primary runoff. Their TV spot promotes Cloud as a fighter who will help Donald Trump, and praises him as a "conservative outsider" who supports term-limits. The narrator adds that he has a plan to protect ranchers and farmers from "harassment from the EPA and federal bureaucrats."
● WV-03: GOP Del. Rupie Phillips's new ad pledges he'll "fight to finish the King Coal Highway and the Coalfield Expressway," and features lots of dramatic shots of him in coal fields. Del. Carol Miller, one of his many rivals in the May 8 primary, is also out with a spot that promotes her as an "America First Conservative."
Legislative
● Special Elections: Democrats easily held New York's competitive 37th State Senate District on Tuesday night, with Assemblywoman Shelley Mayer beating former Rye City Councilwoman Julie Killian by a wide 57-43 margin. Thanks to another win by Assemblyman Luis Sepulveda, who obliterated his opposition in a dark blue Bronx seat (the Republican candidate took 2 percent of the vote), and the recent reunification of the breakaway Independent Democratic Conference with the mainline Democratic caucus, Democrats now have a numerical 32 to 31 majority in the Senate.
But no matter—Republicans still control the chamber, because conservative Brooklyn Democrat Simcha Felder, who has caucused with the GOP from the moment he took office in 2013, says he'll continue to do so, making the cockamamie argument that it's his "obligation to prevent an unprecedented and uncertain late-session political battle that will only hurt my constituents and New Yorkers." Even Gov. Andrew Cuomo isn't buying it: In a letter to Felder, he urged him to return to the fold, warning that "the Democratic conference will not need you in November the way they need you now"—because, evidently, Cuomo expect Democrats to make gains this fall.
Of course, like the IDC deal, Cuomo's only doing this for appearance's sake—if he really cared about Democratic unity, he'd have pushed for Democratic control of the Senate long ago, and certainly before this year's state budget was complete. For Felder, meanwhile, Cuomo's apparent threat actually explains why he's more apt to stay put. Felder recognizes that his special status as the tipping-point senator will almost certainly come to an end after the midterm elections, so he has every incentive to maximize his influence for as long as he can. Come next year, he'll just be a random (and probably scorned) backbencher no matter what he does now.
Meanwhile, Democrats also flipped a seat in the state Assembly with former Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern's big 59-41 victory over attorney Janet Smitelli in the 10th District. While this Long Island seat went 52-45 for Clinton in 2016 and 51-48 for Obama in 2012, Republicans had represented it for 40 straight years.
There's also the curious matter of the 142nd Assembly District, in the Buffalo area. Teacher Erik Bohen, running on the Republican line, narrowly beat Democrat Patrick Burke, an Erie County legislator, 52-48, so technically this counts as a rare Democrat-to-Republican flip. However, Bohen is a registered Democrat (Buffalo politics are weird) and has promised to caucus with the Democrats and support the Democratic speaker of the Assembly, Carl Heastie.
Democrats also narrowly fell short of flipping two more GOP-held Assembly seats in the 102nd and 107th Districts. Results from these and the other four contested special elections (none of which changed hands) are below:
AD-05: Doug Smith (R): 63, Deborah Slinkosky (D): 37
AD-17: John Mikulin (R): 64, Matthew Malin (D): 36
AD-74: Harvey Epstein (D): 91, Bryan Cooper (R): 5, Adrienne Craig-Williams (Green): 2, Juan Pagan (Reform): 2
AD-80: Nathalia Fernandez (D): 81, Gene DeFrancis (R): 19
AD-102: Christopher Tague (R): 46, Aidan O'Connor Jr. (D): 44, Wes Laraway (Best Choice): 10
AD-107: Jacob Ashby (R): 51, Cynthia Doran (D): 49
For a summary of these candidates' backgrounds, see here.
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