With soon-to-be National Security Adviser John Bolton shrieking bomb bomb bomb in one of Donald Trump’s ears and CIA Director and possibly-soon-to-be Secretary of State Mike Pompeo screaming bomb bomb bomb in his other ear, the pr*sident’s determination to greatly change or ax the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement provides an added reason to fret. Because if the United States does withdraw, already-high tensions are certain to rise, giving Iranian hardliners and American hardliners like Pompeo and Bolton a boost.
That won’t do anybody any good.
Since the beginning of his campaign for the presidency, Trump has called the Iran nuclear deal “terrible” and the “worst deal ever.” Unless it can be fixed to his liking, he’s vowed to withdraw the U.S. from the multilateral agreement, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
The desired changes include even more intrusive inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly at military bases, constraints on Iran’s regional interactions, constraints on Iran’s ballistic missile testing, and making permanent the agreement’s provisions that are slated to sunset in 8 to 13 years.
But last month’s Vienna meeting among diplomats from the deal-making nations—U.S., Iran, China, Russia, France, the UK and Germany—did little to suggest that all fixes will be forthcoming. Iran, in particular, says nothing doing.
Five weeks from now is the May 12 deadline for Trump to decide whether he will continue waiving nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. Removing those sanctions was part of the nuclear deal. The United States did not, however, take them off the books entirely. Instead they are suspended under a waiver arrangement that must be revisited every 90 days.
With that deadline just around the corner, U.S. officials are planning how they will deal with the aftermath if Trump does choose to pull out of the agreement. Among other things, they are looking at how to market a withdrawal as the best strategy, how forcefully to reimpose sanctions, and how to handle the reactions of Iran and Europe.
Matthew Lee and Josh Lederman report:
As the Europeans work to salvage the deal, France, Britain and Germany have been trying to persuade their fellow EU members to agree to new non-nuclear sanctions on Iran, including some related to Tehran’s actions in Syria, said one European diplomat.
The goal is to tee up a “package” of actions to present to Trump as evidence that the Europeans are taking his concerns about Iran seriously and demonstrating willingness to act. Several nations have objected, arguing it’s illogical to make concessions to Trump when it’s unclear that will be enough to keep him in the deal.
On two of Trump’s concerns — Iran’s ballistic missile testing and destabilizing behavior in the region — the U.S. and Europe have largely reached consensus that Tehran can and should be punished. But the two sides remain far apart on Trump’s third concern: the “sunset provisions” that gradually allow Iran to resume advanced nuclear work after several years.
Donald Trump has voiced a lot of delusional claptrap about obtaining a better deal or ending the one in place. And he’s on the verge of surrounding himself with guys who will give the worst possible advice on the matter. If Iranian hardliners want to make nuclear weapons, killing the deal plays right into their hands. The reckless stupidity of Trump’s stance in this matter isn’t confined to the Middle East. It could very well have a detrimental impact on upcoming talks between Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. But then North Korea is another place Bolton and Pompeo would like to bomb.