In Tuesday’s biggest upset, nonprofit head Kara Eastman, who also serves as a member of the Metropolitan Community College Board, defeated former Rep. Brad Ashford 51.4-48.6 in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Eastman will take on freshman Republican Rep. Don Bacon in this Omaha-based seat that narrowed from a 53-46 victory for Mitt Romney in 2012 to a much tighter 48-46 win for Donald Trump in 2016.
Eastman's win was a surprise for quite a few reasons. She faced a large financial disadvantage against Ashford, who’d outraised her $559,000 to $356,000 through late April. Eastman did have some support from local Democratic elected officials as well as a few unions, but she didn't have the name recognition of Ashford, a longtime Omaha politician who represented this seat for one term. Ashford also had the advantage of getting placed on the DCCC's Red to Blue list for top candidates, as ex-members seeking comebacks often are, and that may have kept national donors and groups away from his opponent.
While the primary was largely civil (the two candidates’ families are close), Eastman did run against Ashford, a former Republican who has always portrayed himself as a moderate, from the left. Most notably, Eastman emphasized her support for “Medicare for all” and ran a TV ad telling the audience she was tired of hearing that Democrats don't stand for anything. Eastman also likely benefited from running at a time when women have been doing well in Democratic primaries.
Long before the primary was decided, most prognosticators concluded that Eastman would be a weaker nominee that Ashford. Observers argued that the GOP would be able to portray Eastman as too liberal for Omaha, a problem that the more moderate Ashford would in theory be able to avoid. However, despite the conventional wisdom, it's far from clear that Ashford was actually the better bet.
Back in 2016, Ashford lost to Bacon 49-48, which was almost identical to the margin of Hillary Clinton's close defeat in the district, so he may not have had the crossover appeal his supporters believed he'd have this year. And Ashford’s fundraising—a practice he openly disdained—was always weak, even as an incumbent and despite all his connections. Even though he’d been running for almost a year, his total haul at the end of the first quarter of the year put him at 97th among credible Democratic challengers.
But while Ashford was certainly an imperfect candidate, he was at least a known one. The only thing many national observers know about Eastman is that she beat a Blue Dog-endorsed former congressman while running to the left, so it's pretty easy to caricature her as something like a progressive version of a tea partier. But like most caricatures, it would be inaccurate. Eastman's support for universal health care, tuition-free college, and gun safety reform are about where the Democratic base is now, and these policies tend to poll well with the larger public, too.
The GOP certainly won't waste time trying to portray Eastman's support for expanding Medicare to all as some malign scheme to impose punitive taxes and turn America into a grim socialist hellscape … but it's not like they don’t already plan to use that line of attack in every competitive race they can. It will be up to Eastman to push back and make a positive argument about her views rather than let the GOP define her.
One further potential concern for Eastman is that her fundraising up until now has been pretty slow (she was 152nd on the list), but undoubtedly her ability to bring in money was constrained by the fact that she was running against an establishment favorite in a primary. Now that she’s the nominee in a competitive seat, she should have a much easier time raising the cash she’ll need.
