On Tuesday, voters in Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky go to the polls for their party primaries, and we also have runoffs in Texas in contests where no candidates took a majority in the March 6 primaries. We have a number of competitive House races to watch, as well as both parties' primaries for governor of Georgia. Note that, like Texas, Arkansas and Georgia require a runoff for any races where no one wins a majority; Arkansas’s runoff would be June 19, while Georgia's would be July 24.
Things kick off at 6 PM ET when polls close in the part of Kentucky that's located in the Eastern time zone (this includes every county in the 6th Congressional District, which is the only race in the Bluegrass State in this guide). Georgia and the rest of Kentucky close at 7 PM ET. Polls then close in most of Texas at 8 PM ET and in Arkansas at 8:30 PM ET, while the small part of Texas in the Mountain time zone will close at 9 PM ET.
Our guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below. We also invite you to join us at Daily Kos Elections that night for our liveblog of all of the races on the docket, and to follow our coverage on Twitter as well.
Leading Off
● GA-Gov (D & R): GOP Gov. Nathan Deal is termed-out of office, and both parties have hosted expensive primaries to succeed him.
On the Democratic side, former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams faces former state Rep. Stacey Evans (both resigned from the legislature to focus on their campaigns), and because no other Democrats filed to run, the nomination will be decided without a runoff. Recent polls give Abrams, who is seeking to become the first black woman to be governor not just of Georgia but of any state, a clear lead over Evans. While Evans has outspent Abrams on TV, Abrams has been getting air support from a number of outside groups; Daily Kos has also endorsed Abrams.
Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle has been the GOP frontrunner throughout the race, and there's little question he'll take the most votes. It's much less likely, though not impossible, that Cagle will win the majority he'd need to avoid a runoff, but if he doesn’t, there's a lot of uncertainty about who would be his opponent in July.
Two recent polls found Cagle far from 50 percent and showed Secretary of State Brian Kemp leading both former state Sen. Hunter Hill and businessman Clay Tippins for the second slot. Cagle and his allies have dramatically outspent the rest of the GOP field on TV, while Kemp has outpaced Hill and Tippins. Kemp has also generated national attention through some very odd ads, including one spot where he brandished a gun at a young man named "Jake" who was "interested in one of [his] daughters" as Jake parroted campaign talking points. State Sen. Michael Williams is also running, but he's raised little money and barely registered in the polls.
Gubernatorial
● TX-Gov (D): Former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez led businessman Andrew White, the son of the late Gov. Mark White, 43-27 in the first round in March, and she looks like the favorite going into the runoff. The winner will be in for a very uphill race against GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, but Democrats hope that a strong nominee will be able to turn out voters for more competitive contests down the ballot.
House
● AR-02 (D) (52-42 Trump, 55-43 Romney): Team Blue is planning to target GOP Rep. French Hill in this central Arkansas seat, and national Democrats have consolidated behind state Rep. Clarke Tucker. Tucker faces three opponents, and while there's little doubt he'll take first place, we'll be watching to see if he takes the majority of the vote he'd need to avoid a June 19 runoff. The only poll we've seen was from Talk Business and Hendrix College earlier this month that gave Tucker 41 percent of the vote, while teachers Gwen Combs and Paul Spencer took 11 and 10 percent, respectively.
● GA-06 (D) (48-47 Trump, 61-37 Romney): GOP Rep. Karen Handel won the most expensive House race in American history last year by a 52-48 margin against Jon Ossoff, and three noteworthy Democrats are competing to take her on this time.
Businessman Kevin Abel outspent former local CBS TV news anchor Bobby Kaple $310,000 to $179,000 from April 1 to May 2 (which the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), while prominent gun safety activist Lucy McBath spent only $22,000. But McBath got some big help during the final days of the campaign when Everytown For Gun Safety, a group founded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, launched a $540,000 TV buy for her. McBath is also the only major black candidate and woman running in the primary, which could help her stand out.
● GA-07 (D) (51-45 Trump, 60-38 Romney): GOP Rep. Rob Woodall has never faced a competitive general election, but Democrats hope that Trump will help them put this suburban Atlanta seat into play. Six Democrats are running here, so it's likely that this primary will go to a July runoff.
EMILY's List is supporting Georgia State public policy professor Carolyn Bourdeaux, who has raised more money from donors than each of her opponents. But businessman David Kim has poured over $500,000 of his own money into his campaign, and he outspent Bourdeaux $310,000 to $209,000 during the pre-primary period. Attorney Ethan Pham also deployed $110,000 during this time. The remaining three Democrats each spent less than $15,000.
● KY-06 (D) (55-39 Trump, 56-42 Romney): GOP Rep. Andy Barr is defending a central Kentucky seat that backed Trump by a convincing margin but still sometimes votes for Democrats down the ballot. Retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath, who flew combat missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, entered the race last summer with a hard-hitting introductory video that quickly went viral and set her on a path toward raising almost $2 million. However, despite McGrath’s early success, national Democrats still recruited Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, who carried this district 52-48 during his unsuccessful 2016 Senate bid against GOP Rep. Rand Paul. State Sen. Reggie Thomas is also in, but he's raised little cash and attracted little national support.
Gray, who leads the district's largest city, began the race as the frontrunner: His own poll from early March gave him a giant 51-19 lead over McGrath. However, that was before McGrath began using her considerable war chest to air ads introducing herself to voters, and they appear to have done the trick. McGrath released a late April poll giving her a 42-35 lead over Gray, and the mayor never responded with contradictory numbers.
While both candidates have spent plenty of money on commercials, they've taken very different approaches in terms of messaging. Gray has run ads that have been more geared toward a general election, including one spot where he declared that "we better put party aside." By contrast, McGrath has run ads where she's pledged to stand up to Trump and to protect Obamacare, as well as spots touting her military service. In a sign that he, too, might believe he’s behind, Gray launched a negative commercial in the race's final weekend arguing that McGrath is a carpetbagger.
● TX-02 (R) (52-43 Trump, 63-36 Romney): State Rep. Kevin Roberts took first place in the March primary to succeed retiring Rep. Ted Poe with 33 percent of the vote, while retired Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw upset wealthy GOP donor Kathaleen Wall 27.4-27.1 to win the second runoff spot. The race for this suburban Houston seat has become incredibly nasty, with Roberts and his allies accusing Crenshaw of disrespecting both Donald Trump and Christianity itself in past Facebook posts, while Crenshaw and his supporters have argued that Roberts insulted Crenshaw’s military experience and indeed all veterans.
Roberts has the support of the NRA and Harris County Judge Ed Emmett (a position akin to county executive), while Crenshaw has former Gov. Rick Perry in his corner. There has also been plenty of super PAC spending here. A group called American Patriots PAC has run ads praising Crenshaw, who lost his right eye in Afghanistan, and arguing that Roberts is just a typical politician who is trying to smear his heroic opponent. With Honor Fund, which backs veterans from both parties, has also run similar spots. For Roberts, a group called Conservative Results Matter that's largely funded by his brother-in-law's law firm has run ads hitting Crenshaw for speaking out against Trump years ago. Whoever emerges will take on Democratic nominee Todd Litton, who has raised a credible amount of money for this tough seat.
● TX-05 (R) (63-34 Trump, 65-34 Romney): State Rep. Lance Gooden outpaced GOP fundraiser Bunni Pounds 30-22 in the first round of the primary back in March for this safely red seat. Pounds has the support of retiring Rep. Jeb Hensarling, Vice President Mike Pence, and the radical anti-tax Club for Growth. Pounds also has outspent Gooden, while the Club has aired ads arguing he's voted to raise taxes.
However, a pro-Gooden super PAC that's funded by a wealthy and controversial Gooden supporter named Monty Bennett is spending to help the state representative. And while Gooden has considerably less big-name support than Pounds, he has the backing of most of the defeated March candidates. Geography could also give him a boost: Gooden is from the larger and more conservative rural part of the district, while Pounds lives in the Dallas area.
● TX-06 (R) (54-42 Trump, 58-41 Romney): Former Tarrant County Tax Assessor Ron Wright outpaced veteran Jake Ellzey 45-22 in the March GOP primary to succeed longtime Rep. Joe Barton, and he looks like the favorite for round two. While neither candidate has raised much money (and Wright has even gone into debt to keep his campaign afloat), Wright is getting support from the Club for Growth. Wright also has the backing of his former boss, Barton, though given what the public has learned about the congressman's personal life, that support may not be an asset. The only poll we've seen is a late April internal from Wright that gave him a 47-24 lead.
● TX-07 (D) (48-47 Clinton, 60-39 Romney): Attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher outpaced activist Laura Moser 29-24 in March after the DCCC posted a dossier of opposition research about Moser in an unusual and controversial attempt to undermine her campaign. However, the runoff to face GOP Rep. John Culberson has been a considerably more civil affair, though many Moser supporters remain angry about what happened.
While Moser raised plenty of money from donors across the nation two months ago who were infuriated by the DCCC's move, Fletcher has had the financial edge for the runoff. Fletcher, who has the support of EMILY's List, outspent Moser $204,000 to $143,000 during the pre-primary period, and Fletcher had considerably more money in the bank for the homestretch. But Moser does have the support some labor groups who are not happy with the fact that Fletcher's old law firm once represented a commercial cleaning company that won a $5.3 million suit against a union affiliated with the AFL-CIO. (Fletcher was not involved in the litigation.)
● TX-21 (R & D) (52-42 Trump, 60-38 Romney): Back in March, former Ted Cruz chief of staff Chip Roy led businessman and perennial candidate Matt McCall 27-17 in the 18-way (not an exaggeration) GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Lamar Smith. Roy has a huge spending edge over McCall, who badly lost primary bids against Smith over the last two cycles, as well as support from Smith, Cruz, and the Club for Growth. The Club and an allied organization called National Horizon PAC have aired ads for Roy, while McCall has not gotten much outside help.
This seat is a potential Democratic target, and Team Blue also has a runoff here. But while Army veteran and businessman Joseph Kopser decisively outspent his rivals in March, he surprisingly trailed Pastor Mary Wilson 31-29. Kopser has outspent Wilson $120,000 to $38,000 during the pre-primary period and had a huge cash-on-hand lead for the final weeks of the campaign, while VoteVets has also been airing ads for him. Kopser has been running as a candidate who can appeal to unhappy Republicans, while Wilson has argued that Democrats need a progressive in the seat.
● TX-23 (D) (50-46 Clinton, 51-48 Romney): Former Air Force intelligence officer Gina Ortiz Jones took first place in the March Democratic primary with a surprisingly strong 42 percent of the vote, while teacher Rick Trevino edged two other candidates to take second with 17 percent of the vote. The DCCC and other national groups, including Daily Kos and EMILY's List, have consolidated behind Jones over Trevino, who has barely raised any money during his entire campaign.
Trevino, who is trying to appeal to Bernie Sanders supporters, has been trying to frame the race as a battle between a true progressive and the Democratic establishment, but if he wins, it would be a huge upset. The winner will take on GOP Rep. Will Hurd in this swing seat, which stretches from the outskirts of El Paso east to the San Antonio area.
● TX-27 (R) (60-37 Trump, 61-38 Romney): The GOP runoff for this Corpus Christi-area seat pits establishment favorite Bech Bruun, who resigned as chair of the state Water Development Board to run, against former Victoria County GOP Chair Michael Cloud. While Bruun outspent Cloud decisively ahead of the primary, he only led him by a surprisingly slim 36-34 margin in March, and all of the defeated candidates went on to back Cloud.
Bruun once again outspent Cloud, $138,000 to $71,000, during the pre-primary period, but Cloud is getting help from outside groups. The Club for Growth has aired ads both slamming Brunn as a career politician and praising Cloud as an outsider, while House Freedom Action Fund has also shelled out for Cloud.
● TX-32 (D) (48-47 Clinton, 57-41 Romney): Colin Allred, a one-time NFL linebacker turned civil rights attorney, outpaced former Department of Agriculture official Lillian Salerno 38-18 in March. Soon thereafter, the DCCC added Allred to their Red to Blue list for top candidates, and he's picked up support from some prominent Texas Democrats. Allred outspent Salerno $130,000 to $69,000 during the pre-primary period. The winner will take on longtime GOP Rep. Pete Sessions in a seat that swung hard against Trump last cycle but where Republicans still do well further down the ballot.
