The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NJ-02: When he first entered the race for New Jersey's open 2nd Congressional District back in February, engineer Hirsh Singh reportedly assured local GOP leaders that he'd pour $2 million of his own money into his bid. But according to the financial disclosure statement he just filed with the House, if Singh even self-funded a fraction of that sum, he'd be flat broke.
Campaign Action
Singh's filing shows that, far from being a multi-millionaire, his actual assets sit somewhere between $51,000 and $115,000. He lists between $1,000 and $15,000 of those assets as coming from casino winnings, writing in the description, "Hit black 13 on Roulette in Atlantic City after the first annual GOP Leadership Summit ;-)." Yes, Singh really included that winky emoticon in his official financial disclosure statement.
Republican leaders understandably don't seem too ;-) with Singh. Atlantic County party chair Keith Davis grumbled, "A lot of people supported him based upon the personal wealth he pledged was going to be brought into this campaign." And some of those people were, like Davis, also from Atlantic County, which makes up about 40 percent of the electorate in the June 5 primary, nearly twice as much as the next largest county.
Thanks to the representations he made about his finances, Singh earned the important "organization line" in Atlantic County as well as in Ocean County, which comprises about 10 percent of the vote. That gives him a distinct advantage in the primary, since his name will appear in a separate column from those of his foes. And since those rivals have even less money, name recognition, or external support, Singh remains the front-runner.
Singh in fact has only self-funded $54,000 so far, leading an impatient Davis to warn that Singh "better start raising money." But that hope may be as vain as the dream that Singh would self-fund millions in the first place: Singh brought in just $48,000 from donors during his first quarter in the race.
National Republicans have been unusually public in their pessimism about holding seat (even though Trump carried it 51-46) against state Sen. Jeff Van Drew, the likely Democratic nominee, so it's probably too much for Singh to hope that they'll open their wallets for him. Last month, before Singh's financial weaknesses came to light, NRCC chair Steve Stivers openly mused that he wished he "had a better recruit" in 2nd District. Weeks later, Stivers sought to do some damage control and claimed that Singh was indeed an "impressive candidate," but he's probably going to go back to his original—and more accurate—assessment.
There is one big donor who may aid Singh, though. Last year, Singh ran for governor and accepted a nearly $950,000 loan from Tribuvan Singh, who just happens to be his father; that loan made up almost all of Hirsh Singh's campaign budget. Singh, who went on to take just 10 percent of the vote in the primary, was allowed to take this loan because of a loophole in New Jersey election law that allows unlimited donations from a relative who lives in the same household as the candidate. (And yes, the 33-year-old Singh lives with his father.)
However, federal law doesn't allow this kind of transaction, so Singh can't get another massive cash infusion from his dad. Politico speculates that the elder Singh could fund a super PAC to help his son, but it would be tough for the two flat-mates to avoid accusations of illegal coordination since they live in such close proximity. (Super PACs can't work with the campaigns they're aiding.)
What's more, super PACs don't get the same kind of discounted rates on TV and radio as candidates get, so the Tribuvan Singh's money wouldn't go as far as the mythical $2 million that Hirsh Singh said he'd spend would have. The only thing we know is this whole affair is probably going to leave local and national GOP leaders feeling rather ;-(.
Senate
● OH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is putting at least $300,000 behind his first ad buy against Republican Jim Renacci. The narrator argues that that Renacci is the House's only lobbyist, and that he's voted to help other lobbyists "hold key government positions" and made it harder for them to be investigated for conflicts of interest.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: On Thursday, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes publicly acknowledged that she is considering seeking the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Gov. Matt Bevin, who has not yet announced if he'll seek a second term next year. Grimes challenged Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell in 2014 and lost their expensive contest 56-41. She sought re-election the next year and narrowly prevailed 51-49 as Bevin was winning by a surprisingly-wide 53-44 margin.
A few other Democrats are eyeing this race. State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins recently said he would decide soon, while state Attorney General Andy Beshear hasn't ruled it out. The filing deadline is at the end of January.
● GA-Gov: On behalf of FOX 5 Atlanta, the nonpartisan pollster Opinion Savvy takes a look at Tuesday's primaries. On the Democratic side, they find former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams with a massive 58-19 lead over former state Rep. Stacey Evans; a few days ago, SurveyUSA dropped a poll giving Abrams a smaller, but still substantial, 43-24 edge. Because there are only two candidates on the ballot, there won't be a July runoff here.
On the GOP side, Opinion Savvy has Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in the lead 31 percent, which is considerably less than the majority of the vote he needs to win without going through a runoff. Secretary of State Brian Kemp edges former state Sen. Hunter Hill 20-14 for second, while businessman Clay Tippins takes 12 and state Sen. Michael Williams is at 5. SurveyUSA's recent poll had a pretty similar read on the race: Cagle was at 35, while Kemp led Hill 17-10 for second place.
● KS-Gov: The GOP firm Remington Research is out with the first poll of the August GOP primary we've seen in two months, and they find Gov. Jeff Colyer edging Secretary of State Kris Kobach 29-27; 2006 nominee Jim Barnett was a distant third with 9, while state Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer took just 5 percent. Remington says this poll was not paid for by any campaign; the Kansas City Star does note that Remington is owned by Axiom Strategies, and one of Axiom's senior vice presidents is a Colyer consultant.
This poll isn't not much different from Remington's February survey, which gave Colyer a 23-21 lead over Kobach. That poll was taken just weeks after Colyer ascended to the governorship following Sam Brownback's confirmation to an ambassadorship, and it's interesting that Remington doesn't find Colyer doing any better against Kobach even after voters have had more time to get to know him as governor. A March Kobach internal from JMC Analytics gave their candidate a very different 31-18 lead over Colyer.
● MD-Gov: Well-connected attorney Jim Shea is up with a 60-second introductory spot ahead of the June 26 Democratic primary. The narrator praises Shea's work on the chairman of the University of Maryland's board and as head of the Baltimore Empowerment Zone, and also calls him "our state's chief advocate for mass transit."
● MI-Gov: On Thursday, at the request of Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a judge dismissed a lawsuit brought by El-Sayed himself that had asked the court to rule whether he was eligible to run for governor. El-Sayed's campaign apparently made this move as a result of a letter recently released by the Michigan Bureau of Elections that rejected challenges to his eligibility that had been brought before the secretary of state.
As a political matter, it makes sense that El-Sayed would want to be able to say that the issue is now behind him. However, as a legal matter, the choice to drop his suit is nevertheless a potentially risky one, since the bureau's opinions do not have the force of law in the way a court ruling would, so El-Sayed still lacks a legally binding judgment affirming his eligibility.
In other words, someone else could still come along and file their own lawsuit challenging El-Sayed's ability to run in the August primary. (At issue is whether, per the Michigan constitution, he's been a registered voter in the state for the last four years.) While the Bureau of Elections' opinion might be taken into consideration by a judge in such a case, they would not necessarily be obligated to follow it.
● MN-Gov: On Thursday, Democratic state Rep. Erin Murphy picked up an endorsement from AFSCME Minnesota Council 5, a union that Minnesota Morning Take describes as "critical" to Mark Dayton's narrow 2010 primary win. Murphy, who earned the support of the state SEIU days before, was also backed by St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter on Friday.
The endorsements come two weeks ahead of the important state party convention, which will be held the weekend of June 1. It takes the support of 60 percent of the delegates to win the party endorsement, and Murphy and state Auditor Rebecca Otto have pledged to drop out of the race if someone else gets the party nod. However, Rep. Tim Walz has announced that he'll continue on to the Aug. 14 primary no matter what.
● OK-Gov: Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb's new ad touts his endorsement from Donald Trump … Jr. Lamb, who is one of several Republicans competing in the June 26 primary, once again reminds viewers he was a Secret Service agent, and says he'll grow the economy and help Donald Trump Sr. The spot ends with a clip of Lamb and Trump Jr. shaking hands as the narrator declares the candidate is "supported by Donald Trump Jr."
● SC-Gov: The NRA has endorsed Gov. Henry McMaster ahead of the June 12 GOP primary.
House
● CA-39: In an extremely unusual move, Eric Bauman, the chair of the California Democratic Party, announced on Friday that Democrats Gil Cisneros and Andy Thorburn have both agreed to stop attacking one another and would instead "focus the entirety of our resources on communicating a positive message about our campaigns." Bauman says his goal in brokering this deal was to avoid a negative primary that would undermine the party's chances in November, and that's laudable, but there's a possibility—distasteful though it is—that this peace treaty could actually make it less likely that a Democrat even makes it to the general election in the first place.
That's because the Democratic field (which also includes pediatrician Mai Khanh Tran and former Commerce Department official Sam Jammal) risks getting frozen out of the top two slots in next month's primary, a worry we've written about repeatedly and something the DCCC has been spending heavily to avoid. If all the Democrats remain bunched closed together, that makes it harder for one to rise to the top. Negative campaigning might be the only way to cull one of the weaker candidates.
If that seems awful, it is—but it's a product of California's anti-democratic top-two primary system, which penalizes parties when high enthusiasm inspires a large crop of contenders to run for the same seat. It leads to perverse outcomes, such as pressure on candidates to drop out, or, as this race indicates, pressure to go negative. If resisting that pressure, as Thorburn and Cisneros have agreed to do, leads to a Republican-on-Republican race in November, that would truly suck.
● CA-45: Law professor Dave Min has released his first negative ad ahead of next month's top-two primary, attacking both of his main Democratic opponents. Of fellow law professor Katie Porter, the spot says that "Washington insiders have spent over $100,000" to help her win, while businessman Brian Forde gets criticized for receiving support from "bitcoin speculators that oppose cracking down on drug deals and human trafficking."
Apparently the basis for this hit is that Forde has received some $100,000 in donations in the form of bitcoin (which the FEC allows). As for Porter, her outside help has come from EMILY's List, which reacted hotly to Min's ad. (Satoshi Nakamoto does not appear to have said anything on Forde's behalf.)
● FL-27: EMILY's List has endorsed former University of Miami President Donna Shalala, who is the front-runner in the August Democratic primary.
● HI-01: Hawaii's Campaign Spending Commission has filed a complaint against state Rep. Kaniela Ing, who is running for the state's open 1st Congressional District, accusing him of falsifying reports and putting campaign funds to personal use. The charges stem from Ing's campaigns for the state legislature (not his congressional bid) and will be reviewed by the committee, which has recommended a $15,000 fine, this coming week. Ing defended himself by saying, "It's easy to avoid these sorts of errors when you have the establishment support."
● NC-09: The Club for Growth has endorsed Minister Mark Harris, who toppled Rep. Robert Pittenger in the GOP primary earlier this month.
● House: On Friday, Roll Call reported that DCCC had made their initial $12.6 million TV reservations for the final month of the general election. We only know the media markets where they've made purchases, but we've also included our best guesses as to which House districts they're specifically targeting or defending in parentheses. You can find our spreadsheet here that tracks which media markets make up each House district and state:
- Miami, FL: $1,996,650 (FL-26, possibly FL-25 and FL-27)
- Cedar Rapids, Iowa/Waterloo, IA: $545,309 (IA-01)
- Boston, MA/ Manchester, NH: $583,079 (NH-01)
- Minneapolis/ St. Paul, MN: $6,170,045 (MN-01, MN-02, MN-03, MN-08)
- Detroit, MI: $728,500 (MI-07, MI-08, MI-11)
- Lansing, MI: $219,300 (MI-07, MI-08)
- Philadelphia, PA: $1,698,891 (NJ-03, PA-01, PA-07)
- Washington, D.C: $717,039 (VA-10)
The DCCC's allies at House Majority PAC unveiled their first reservations in March, while the GOP groups NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund rolled out theirs soon after.
As we've written before, while early ad reservations help lock in cheaper rates, they can be adjusted or cancelled, so this list could change (and it will definitely grow). Note also that in several cases, like Minneapolis and Philadelphia, media markets overlap with multiple districts. That doesn't mean the DCCC is necessarily planning to target every race in each market, though, and they could also shift resources from one race to another within the same market.
