Until Hillary Clinton ran for the Presidency, gerrymandered districts in Texas were safe for GOP incumbents. No map has changed, yet the safety of multi-term Republican incumbents has been shattered in the Lone Star State.
For decades, Texans have contributed more money to out-of-state Democratic challengers than to candidates running in their own state. Few districts were considered likely to go from Red to Blue. That is, until this year! Hillary may not have succeeded at claiming the White House, but her influence in the Lone Star State has shattered the red wall and turned complacent GOP incumbents into a highly endangered species.
Factoring the partisan index with the number of Clinton voters in 2016, many of the most vulnerable Texas State House Representatives are multi-term Republican incumbents.
Women won the Democratic Nomination (or in a run-off with other women for the Democratic Nomination) in 11 of the 15 districts with the most vulnerable GOP incumbents. Both run-off candidates in each of these districts are women.
Instead of having trouble recruiting Democrats to run in these districts, in 2018 there were three to seven candidates on the Democratic Primary ballot in most of these districts!
The nominees in two of these districts (47 and 23) will be decided in the Democratic Primary Run-off on May 22nd.
House District 105 ranks as No. 1. Attorney, Civil Rights activist Terry Meza won the nomination and will face the state's most vulnerable Republican Incumbent (Rodney Anderson) in November. Meza is a former public school teacher, and will fight to fix the state's broken public education financing. Republican incumbent Rodney Anderson won this seat in 2016 with less than a 100 vote margin. The district went heavily for Hillary Clinton in 2016. It ranks as the most Democratic district occupied by a GOP incumbent on the partisan index.
Texas slashed the public school budget several sessions ago, eliminating many teaching positions and increasing the student to teacher ratio on most schools. Failure of lawmakers to address escalating property taxes and to consider revamping the state’s tax code to fund public education and give property tax relief, is one of the hot buttons facing legislators this year. As health insurance premiums and deductibles have skyrocketed, the state has kept its contribute to Texas Teachers insurance at a meger $75 a month, transferring the bulk of the increased premium cost to teachers and retirees. Deductibles have escalated rapidly and many teachers cannot afford to use their health insurance. The State Legislature continues to "kick the can down the road" instead of addressing the tough questions of how to revamp the State's tax code to give equitable tax relief to residential property owners and adequately fund public education. The Lt. Governor and Freedom Caucus demand that school choice (tax credits for private school tuition) is a prerequisite for considering the complexities of school financing.
Meza prioritizes education, and will help offset the stranglehold of the Freedom Caucus on the Texas’ legislative process. Contribute to Meza's campaign
House District 134 - This district led the state in having the most voters for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Sarah. Davis is ranked as the second most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the Texas House. She will face Democratic Nominee Allison Lami Sawyer in November. This district ranks as the 6th most Democratic on the Partisan Index.
The Houston Chronicle Editorial Board wrote: "Democrats in this race have a qualified and impressive alternative in Allison Lami Sawyer."
The Chronicle reported that "Sawyer says Davis voted for the big state school funding cuts that have caused property taxes to soar and was a sponsor last session for SB4 — the so-called "show me your papers" bill — as well as the Blue Tarp bill, which made it harder to receive just compensation from insurance companies after Hurricane Harvey."
Sawyer is a business woman who earned her MBA from Rice. She runs an international business which uses "Optics to detect gas leaks at oil and gas installations in the USA and abroad." The 134th district includes Rice University and the Texas Medical Center
To donate to Allison: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/134sawyer
House District 102 - Rep. Koop (R-I) is ranked as the 3rd most vulnerable GOP Incumbent in the Texas House. The 102nd district is ranked 2th most Democratic on the Partisan Index. It ranks high (4th) in number of votes cast for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Ana-Maria Ramos is the Democratic Nominee.
Ana-Maria is an attorney, professor and strong advocate for school safety and public education. She prioritizes the safety of school children and denounces the intrusion of the NRA into school politics. She pledges not to place loyalty to the NRA above the safety of our of our school children.
The Texas Legislature has cut back on school funding and placed the future of this generation in peril. The current House refuses to address the tough questions and find equitable ways to fund public education.
Ana-Maria prioritizes quality public education and affordable health care. Her son is a public school student and her daughter is a Science Teacher who teaches in the Dallas Independent School District. She will be a good match for this North Dallas district which is bounded on the South by LBJ and which also includes Garland, Addison and Richardson. To contribute to Ana-Maria Ramos: secure.actblue.com/...
House District 136 ties with District 113 for the 4th most likely district to go blue. R incumbent Dale will face Democratic Nominee John H. Bucy III in November in a district which is ranked the 4th most Democratic district of districts with GvOP incumbents and as 7th with the lowest number of voters for Donald Trump in '16.
House District 113 - An Open Seat (R Burkett) iis ranked as tied with District 52 for the 5th most likely seat for a Democrat to claim in 2018. Rhetta Andrews Bowers is the Democratic Nominee. This district is ranked as 3rd on the Partisan Index (3rd most Democratic) and was ranked 11th in the seats controlled by Republicans with the fewest voters for Trump.
House District 52 - An open district which was represented by R. Gonzales is tied with District 113 as the 5th most likely district to go blue. The Democratic Nominee is James Talarico. This district is the 7th most Democratic on the Partisan Index and ranked 8th in the lowest number of voters for Trump in '16,
House District 114 is an open district and is ranked as the 6rh Most Vulnerable Texas State House District for a GOP Candidate to win., The Democratic nominee is John Turner. This district ranks had the third fewest vote for Trump in '16 and ranks as the 13th most Democratic out of the top 15 Republican controlled Texas House Seats.
House District 115 - It is surprising to see Carrollton included in a district where the Republican incumbent is ranked as vulnerable. Multi-term GOP incumbent Rinaldi is ranked as the 7th most vulnerable Republican in the Texas House of Representatives.
.The Democratic Nominee is Julie Johnson, is the daughter of public school teachers, and is an advocate for public education. In 2016, this district ranked 5th in having the fewest votes cast for Donald Trump and is currently ranked as the 9th most Democratic district in the Texas House on the partisan index. The Democratic Nominee is Carrollton attorney Julie Johnson. Julie is a solid pro-public education advocate and is needed in Austin to help break the stranglehold of the Freedom Caucus.
.To contribute to Julie Johnson: secure.actblue.com/...
To learn more about Julie Johnson: https://www.juliejohnsonfortexas.com/
House District 43 - Four term R Incumbent Lozano is ranked as the 9th most vulnerable Republican in the Texas House. He will face Democratic Nominee Dee Ann Torres Miller in the General Election. This district ranks as the second most Democratic on the Partisan Index, Torres is an attorney who practices law in partnership with her brother in Corpus Christi.
House District 47 - This is a central Texas Austin area swing district which was drawn to favor conservative candidates. This year Rep. Workman(R-I) is ranked as the 10th most vulnerable Republican in the Texas House. Democratic business woman Vikki Goodwin faces Elaina Fowler in a May 22nd Run-off for the Democratic Nomination. This district ranked 9th in having the fewest votes cast for Trump and is the 11th most Democratic on the partisan index. To donate to Vikki Goodwin https://secure.actblue.com/donate/47goodwin
House District 112 - R incumbent Chen Button is ranked as the 11th most vulnerable Republican in the Texas House. This district ranks as the 12th most Democratic on the Partisan Index and was tenth in having the most votes cast against Donald Trump. Button will face Democratic Nominee Brandy K. Chambers in the General Election. To learn more about Brandy Chambers: brandykchambers.com
House District 108 - R Meyer is ranked as the 12th most vulnerable member of the GOP delegation the Texas House. This district ranked 6th in having the fewest votes cast for Donald Trump. The Democratic Nominee is Joanna Cattanach.
House District 23 - An open district (R- Faircloth) is ranked as the 13th most likely Republican seat to go Blue in 2018. The Democratic Nominee is Amanda Jamrok. This district is the 10th most Democratic on the partisan index.
House District 45 - An open district (R- (Isaac) is ranked as the 14th most likely red seat to go blue in 2018. It is the 8th most Democratic on the Partisan Index. Rebecca Bell-Metereau faces Erin Zwiener in the May 22nd Democratic Primary Run-off for the Democratic Nomination.
House District 138 - Incumbent Bohc is ranked as the 15th most vulnerable Republican in the Texas House. The district was 12th in having the least votes cast for Donald Trump. The Democratic Nominee is Adam Milasincic.
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