Here’s an individual-giving strategy to be critiqued by the DailyKos community.
The strategy aims to address the daunting challenge we face this year: To win the House and the Senate, as well as a lot more governorships. Amazingly, all three goals could be attainable.
To enhance our chances, it’s worth asking a strategic question: Could one sweep of the net snag three butterflies? For that matter, even a fourth — if you include major gains in state legislatures.
It seems to me that a direct and economical route would be to focus now through Labor Day on three or four statewide races that can serve as “keystones” for all three objectives. This idea is based on the fact that midterms are turnout elections, so a stellar ground game in a top-of-the-ticket statewide contest will generate the turnout to make a difference in dozens of down-ticket races.
That leads to a second question: In which states is there a critical mass of those “butterflies,” i.e. highly competitive races for a) governor, b) the Senate and c) multiple House seats?
Only one state truly fits the bill: Good ol’ Florida. Nelson’s Senate spot is among the four Dem-held seats that are most at risk; the governor’s office is within reach; and Cook Political counts six Florida House seats as Likely R or better.
This is a beautiful thing, because it so happens that Nelson’s campaign desperately needs cash to keep pace with Scott. Granted: a buck doesn’t go far in Florida. On the other hand, Nelson’s coattails could be longer than the vapor behind a space shuttle. So I’ll rank the former astronaut as my top “Keystone Candidate.”
Strictly speaking, Arizona also fits my criteria, but only marginally. The Keystone Contest there also would be the Senate race, which we’ll need to win to gain a majority. In addition, Cook considers both AZ-02 and AZ-06 in play (although the latter of those is a reach). The governor’s race is even more of a stretch, but both Cook and DailyKos call it “Likely R,” so technically it’s in play.
No other state fully qualifies for the competitive senator/governor/multiple-House-member trifecta. Six of them — all from the nation’s midsection — come close:
- Ohio: The rewards could be high in another big, expensive state. Cook puts five Ohio House districts on the board. At the same time, Sherrod Brown is way down the list of people who need our help. So Keystone would be that very tight governor’s race.
- Iowa: In this state, a little money could go a long way. No Senate race, but Cook just moved the Keystone there (the governor’s race) to Tossup. We have two great female candidates in flippable House districts. (Also, AJD7 reports that we could flip the Iowa state House this year and make progress in the state Senate.)
- Minnesota: There are two highly vulnerable Republican House members and three Democratic House seats that could be tough holds (including two retirements). There’s also a close governor’s race, but we won’t know the nominee until Aug. 14. And, by that time, we’d damn well better be ahead in both Senate contests. With all that action, it does seem likely that Klobuchar, Smith and DFL will need a bit less help than some other states to work together to build a strong ground game.
- Texas: Forget about the governor’s race, but Beto’s quest qualifies as perhaps the 11th most competitive. Higher turnout driven by his Senate campaign could lift boats in the four Texas districts that Cook views as competitive. Still, for now, I’m a bit dubious about the bang-for-my-buck factor.
- Michigan: Like Iowa, Michigan has a competitive governor’s race and multiple (in this case, four) House districts that Cook rates competitive. But Stabenow doesn’t need my money, and the gubernatorial nominee won’t be chosen until August. (Again, see AJD7’s diary on the potential to win the Michigan House this year.)
- Wisconsin: For the love of God, somebody’s gotta beat Walker. I would consider the governor’s race the Keystone Contest, because Baldwin is only about the 15th most competitive Senate contest at this point (if she doesn’t win, we may as well move to Canada). There are a couple of competitive House seats in Wisconsin as well (and, as AJD7 reports, the state Senate is in play). We won’t know the gubernatorial nominee until August, however (what’s with these northern tier states and their late primaries?). And while I love Tammy Baldwin, she’s very, very far from our neediest senator.
Another tier of states with multiple competitive contests would include Colorado, Georgia, Maine and New Jersey. But the playing field in those states is relatively narrow.
Unfortunately, none of the six Senate contests where we have a chance in a very red state (IN, MO, MT, ND, TN & WV) makes my Keystone threshold. Only two have a governor’s contest, although four do have one Likely R House seat. A good argument could be made to contribute to each of these contests because they’re that important. Rather than spread myself thin as an out-of-stater, however, I’d like to see which of them still has a chance and most needs my help later.
Another approach would be to target, say, the 15th through 40th most likely House flips. But my objective with the Keystone approach is to impact key House, Senate, governors’ and even state legislative races all at the same time. And as with the Senate contests, this House battle lines will be clearer near the end of summer.
So based on all of this, I come away with a list of four candidates early summer Keystones:
- Bill Nelson
- Kyrsten Sinema
- Richard Cordray
- Fred Hubbell
I’m inclined for the next couple of months to focus my personal contributions and volunteer work on these four campaigns, and to encourage friends and family to do the same.
That’s not to say that others shouldn’t be helped later. I may put aside some money to help out gubernatorial candidates in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin once they’re selected. And, after Labor Day, when the House and Senate races are shaping up a more clearly, I’ll take another look and probably urge friends and family to give tactically to House candidates, Senate candidates and perhaps to the party committees.
But the Keystone approach is attractive to me because it could help in so many key contests. Between those four candidates, we’d be improving our chances in two of the five most competitive Senate seats; three of the most competitive governor’s races (plus a fourth semi-competitive one); and 15 targeted House seats.
Before I broadcast this approach to friends and family, however, I’d love to get feedback from the fine folks in the DKE community.