We have another major primary night on Tuesday, as voters in Colorado, Maryland, Oklahoma and Utah head to the polls for their state’s primaries, while those in Mississippi and South Carolina will hold runoffs. New York will also hold its first of two primaries, for federal races only. (Primaries for state-level contests won’t take place until Sept. 13.)
Note that Oklahoma requires an Aug. 28 runoff in races where no one takes a majority of the vote tonight. The first polls close at 7 PM ET in South Carolina; then at 8 PM ET in Maryland, Mississippi, and Oklahoma; at 9 PM ET in Colorado and New York and at 10 PM ET in Utah.
Our guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below. We also invite you to join us at Daily Kos Elections that night for our liveblog of all of the races on the docket, and to follow our coverage on Twitter as well.
● NY-11 (R) (54-44 Trump, 52-47 Obama): The very nasty GOP primary for this seat, which includes all of Staten Island and some Brooklyn neighborhoods, pits Rep. Dan Donovan against his immediate predecessor, former Rep. Mike Grimm. Donovan, who was Staten Island's longtime district attorney before entering Congress, has been a pretty low-key member. The same cannot be said for Grimm, who among other things once threatened a reporter with bodily harm on camera about a year before he resigned after getting indicted on tax evasion charges, which led to the special election in which Donovan succeeded him. (Grimm wound up serving seven months in prison as part of a plea deal in the tax case.)
While Donald Trump endorsed Donovan in late May, that hasn’t stopped Grimm from portraying himself as the true Trump candidate in the race and faulting Donovan for failing to support the White House's priorities. With his belligerent attitude and ceaseless claims of persecution, Grimm certainly fits the Trump mold.
Donovan outspent Grimm by a sizable $591,000 to $297,000 from April 1 to June 6 (which the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), and he's received outside help from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other groups. However, it may not be enough to overcome Grimm, who spent years building up a cult of personality by portraying the Obama Justice Department as out to get him, an argument that has struck a chord in a community where many voters believe they've been trod upon by the government.
A Siena College survey from early June gave Grimm a 47-37 lead, though the poll was largely conducted before Trump endorsed Donovan. However, a late poll from the GOP firm Remington Research had Donovan up 47-40; Remington is not formally aligned with either candidate, but they are affiliated with a Donovan consultant. National Democrats are excited about Army veteran Max Rose, who is the heavy favorite to win his primary.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov (D & R): Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper is termed-out of office, and both parties have four-way primaries to succeed him. The Democratic contest is a race between Rep. Jared Polis, former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, former state Sen. Mike Johnston, and Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne. Polis, who would be the first openly gay person to be elected governor in any state, has used his vast personal wealth to outspend his rivals. However, Kennedy's allies at EMILY's List and the state teachers unions have financed a super PAC to help her, while a pro-Johnston PAC has benefited from $2 million in donations from former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Lynne has considerably less money and outside help.
We've only seen two polls over the last month, but they've both shown similar things. The GOP firm Magellan Strategies, which polled on behalf of an unnamed energy company consultancy, found Polis leading Kennedy 31-18, with Johnston taking 9 and Lynne at just 3. A poll for the SEIU, which has not taken sides in the contest, also found Polis leading Kennedy, by a similar 34-23 margin, with Johnston at 12.
On the GOP side, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton has been the frontrunner for pretty much the entire race. Stapleton, who is a second cousin of George W. Bush, has the backing of much of the party establishment, and he's well-funded. His main opponent looks like former state Rep. Victor Mitchell, who has loaned his campaign nearly $5 million. Investment banker Doug Robinson, a nephew of Mitt Romney, is also in, but he hasn't spent much money, and former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez has even fewer resources. The only poll we've seen in months was an early June Magellan survey that found Stapleton ahead of Mitchell 36-23, with Lopez at 10 and Robinson taking just 4.
● MD-Gov (D): Larry Hogan's surprise 2014 victory made him just the second Maryland Republican to win a governor's race in decades, and Democrats are hoping that, despite his strong personal popularity, he'll be a one-termer in what's usually a very blue state. Several Democrats are running, but the two main candidates appear to be Rushern Baker, the county executive of Prince George's in the Washington suburbs, and former NAACP president Ben Jealous; each would be Maryland's first black governor.
Baker has the support of much of the party establishment, including Sen. Chris Van Hollen and former Gov. Martin O'Malley. Jealous has Bernie Sanders and some influential unions on his side, and he's benefited from outside spending. Recent polls show the two in a close race, with the rest of this crowded field lagging far behind. Also in the mix are attorney Jim Shea, who has outspent the rest of the field; state Sen. Richard Madaleno; Krish Vignarajah, a former policy director to Michelle Obama; and former State Department official Alec Ross.
● OK-Gov (R): GOP Gov. Mary Fallin is leaving office incredibly unpopular even with her own party, and Democrats are hoping that former state Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who is the heavy favorite to win his primary, will have a chance in November in this very red state. However, with half a dozen Republicans on the ballot, it's likely that the GOP primary will need to be resolved in an August runoff.
Based on the campaigns' spending and the few polls we've seen, three of the six GOP candidates look like they have a credible shot to make the second round. The only poll we've seen this month was an early June survey from the GOP firm Right Strategy Group that found a very tight three-way race between Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb, former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, and wealthy businessman Kevin Stitt. Another rich guy, former U.S. Attorney Gary Richardson has also spent heavily, but he's polled poorly in this and past polls. Also in the running are former state Rep. Dan Fisher and state Auditor Gary Jones, but they've spent little and haven't registered much in the polls.
● SC-Gov (R): Gov. Henry McMaster led wealthy businessman John Warren 42-28 in the first round of the primary on June 12, and he looks favored to seal the deal Tuesday. Warren picked up endorsements from most of the defeated candidates, but McMaster and his allies have decisively outspent him in the two-week long runoff campaign, and both Donald Trump and Mike Pence campaigned for the governor in the final days of the race.
A poll from the GOP firm Trafalgar Research gave McMaster a comfortable 54-37 lead, though Warren responded with his own poll giving himself a small 46-42 edge. Whoever prevails will take on Democratic state Rep. James Smith in the general.
House
● CO-01 (D) (69-23 Clinton, 69-29 Obama): Democratic Rep. Diana DeGette has never faced a serious primary challenge since she was elected to this safely blue Denver seat in 1996, but this year is a bit different. Attorney Saira Rao, who is the daughter of Indian immigrants, has argued that the Democratic Party is taking people of color like her for granted, and that new leadership is needed. Rao has been a very strong fundraiser, and she outspent DeGette $341,000 to $163,000 in the pre-primary period. Still, DeGette doesn't seem to have made many enemies at home, and it would be a massive upset if she were to lose.
● CO-03 (D) (52-40 Trump, 52-46 Romney): GOP Rep. Scott Tipton has turned back serious Democratic foes before in this western Colorado seat, but two noteworthy Democrats are competing for their party’s nomination in the hopes that this year will be different. Attorney Karl Hanlon outspent former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush $132,000 to $106,000 in the pre-primary period, but Mitsch Bush had considerably more cash left over for the final two weeks of the campaign. Mitsch Bush, who resigned from the legislature to focus on her bid, has the state party's endorsement, as well as support from EMILY's List.
● CO-05 (R) (57-33 Trump, 59-38 Romney): GOP Rep. Doug Lamborn has struggled in previous primaries in this safely red Colorado Springs seat, and he once again faces a serious challenge, though this time, he faces two notable rivals who could split the anti-incumbent vote. One of his foes is state Sen. Owen Hill, who won the state party endorsement in March after no other notable candidates—including Lamborn himself—competed there, which gives him the top spot on the ballot. The other is El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn, who lost a surprisingly close 2016 Senate race to Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet. Two other Republicans are also on the ballot.
The only poll we've seen here was a late May poll from the GOP firm Magellan Strategies that found Lamborn leading Glenn 37-27, with Hill at 10. Lamborn decisively outspent Hill $374,000 to $153,000, while Glenn spent just $112,000 (and much of that consisted of payments to himself and his wife).
● CO-06 (D) (50-41 Clinton, 52-47 Obama): GOP Rep. Mike Coffman is once again a target in this competitive suburban Denver seat. State and national Democratic leaders have consolidated behind retired Army Ranger Jason Crow, while clean energy expert Levi Tillemann is positioning himself as the outsider candidate. Crow outspent Tillemann by a hefty $331,000 to $76,000, though Tillemann gained a measure of national attention this month for a web ad where he got pepper sprayed in the face to demonstrate how effective the tool could be for subduing attackers in schools.
● MD-06 (D) (55-40 Clinton, 55-43 Obama): Democratic Rep. John Delaney is leaving behind this seat, which stretches from Montgomery County in suburban Washington into western Maryland, to run for president, and there's an extremely expensive primary to succeed him. David Trone, the co-founder of the liquor store giant Total Wine & More, has self-funded at least $11.5 million; Trone lost the 2016 primary for the neighboring 8th District 34-27 to now-Rep. Jamie Raskin despite also saturating the airwaves during that campaign.
Trone's main rival is state Del. Aruna Miller, who has the support of EMILY's List, the influential Maryland State Education Association, and Ike Leggett, the executive of voter-rich Montgomery County. Trone outspent Miller by a gigantic $5.4 million to $561,000 during the pre-primary period, though Miller’s spending may have been sufficient to get her name out to voters (and Trone’s 2016 carpet-bombing didn’t exactly work for him).
Emergency-room pediatrician and author Nadia Hashimi deployed a smaller $216,000 during this time, while state Sen. Roger Manno has spent very little during this campaign. The winner will be the heavy favorite in November.
● MS-03 (R) (61-37 Trump, 60-39 Romney): Michael Guest, who serves as district attorney for Rankin and Madison counties, led Baptist Health Foundation President Whit Hughes 45-22 in the June 5 GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Gregg Harper. Guest picked up an endorsement from Gov. Phil Bryant late in the contest, and it would be a big surprise if he didn't win after doing so well in round one.
● NY-01 (D) (55-42 Trump, 50-49 Obama): GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin decisively won a second term as his eastern Long Island seat lurched hard toward Trump, but Democrats are hoping 2016 was just an anomaly. Five Democrats are running here, and the two main candidates look like wealthy businessman Perry Gershon and former Suffolk County Legislator Kate Browning.
Gershon, who has self-funded much of his campaign, outspent Browning $1.3 million to $267,000 during the pre-primary period. However, Gershon only changed his voter registration from Manhattan to his summer home in the Hamptons around the time that he was preparing to enter the race, which could be a liability. Also in the mix are David Pechefsky, a 2009 Green County candidate for the New York City Council; former Suffolk County Legislator Vivian Viloria-Fisher; and former Brookhaven National Laboratory scientist Elaine DiMasi, but they've each spent little.
● NY-09 (D) (83-14 Clinton, 85-14 Obama): Rep. Yvette Clarke faces a primary challenge from community organizer Adem Bunkeddeko in this safely blue Brooklyn seat. Bunkeddeko is emphasizing the need for affordable housing, a very potent issue in this area, and he picked up the New York Times' endorsement. However, Clarke outspent Bunkeddeko $191,000 to $87,000 during the pre-primary period, and she doesn't seem to have alienated many local power players.
● NY-12 (D) (83-13 Clinton, 77-22 Obama): Longtime Rep. Carolyn Maloney has rarely drawn opposition in the Democratic primary in this safely blue seat, which is centered around Manhattan's affluent Upper East Side. But attorney and hotel executive Suraj Patel has proven to be a surprisingly strong fundraiser, and he outspent her $695,000 to $415,000 during the pre-primary period. Patel is calling for legalizing marijuana and making it easier to vote, and has emphasized his support for Black Lives Matter. Patel has also gone after Maloney for voting for the Iraq War and her initial opposition to the Obama administration's nuclear agreement with Iran. However, Maloney has support from the powerful local Democratic establishment.
● NY-14 (D) (78-20 Clinton, 81-18 Obama): Longtime Rep. Joe Crowley is the powerful chair of the Queens County Democratic Party and a senior member of the House leadership who has never faced a credible primary foe. However, activist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is hoping to shock the establishment by portraying the incumbent as an insider who's too close to corporate interests. Ocasio-Cortez is also arguing that Crowley, who is white, isn't the right fit for this plurality-Hispanic seat that also has a sizable black and Asian-American population. Crowley seems to be taking his campaign seriously, and he outspent Ocasio-Cortez by a hefty $1.1 million to $127,000 during the pre-primary period.
● NY-19 (D) (51-44 Trump, 52-46 Obama): Democrats have a very expensive seven-way primary to take on GOP Rep. John Faso in this competitive Upper Hudson Valley seat. The top spender during the pre-primary period was former Army intelligence officer Pat Ryan, who spent $774,000 and has gotten outside help from VoteVets. Not far behind was attorney Antonio Delgado, the only person of color in the race, who spent $744,000; just behind them was businessman Brian Flynn, who deployed $714,000.
Gareth Rhodes, a former aide to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, spent a smaller $287,000, but he has the support of many Cuomo allies. Attorney and deacon David Clegg, former diplomat Jeff Beals, and Agency for International Development official Erin Collier, the only woman running, have spent considerably less cash. The only poll we've seen was a June internal from Collier that had Delgado in first with 21 while Flynn and Ryan each took 14; Collier's own survey showed her far behind with just 5 percent of the vote.
● NY-21 (D) (54-40 Trump, 52-46 Obama): GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik had little trouble winning a second term last cycle as her seat, which includes the rural North Country along the Vermont border, swung hard toward Trump, but Team Blue is hoping they'll have an opening here. The candidate with the most national name-recognition is Dylan Ratigan, a former MSNBC host who hails from a prominent local family. However, Ratigan has proudly admitted he'd never voted before, and he even said he "would have voted for Trump" in 2016, a blunder he unconvincingly tried to pass off as a joke.
There are other options, though. Businesswoman Tedra Cobb, a former member of the St. Lawrence County Legislature, actually outspent Ratigan $141,00 to $106,000 during the pre-primary period, while businesswoman Katie Wilson, who has the support of the labor-allied Working Families Party, spent just under $100,000. Two other candidates are also running, but they've each spent little.
● NY-24 (D) (49-45 Clinton, 57-41 Obama): GOP Rep. John Katko has been a very tough opponent for Democrats, but two candidates are competing to take him on. Party activist Dana Balter, a visiting assistant professor at Syracuse University, spent months in the race with little opposition, and she has the support of all four county Democratic parties. But former Syracuse corporation counsel Juanita Perez Williams, who lost the general election for mayor of Syracuse last year, entered the race late at the behest of the DCCC and quickly secured the support of VoteVets.
A mid-June poll from Siena gave Perez Williams a 45-32 lead over Balter. However, Balter outspent her $83,000 to $51,000 during the pre-primary period, though VoteVets has spent close to $250,000 for Perez Williams. Balter has run ads that quote a 2016 Facebook post from Perez Williams where she touted her "pro-life advocacy."
● NY-25 (D) (56-39 Clinton, 59-39 Obama): Longtime Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter died in March, and four Democrats are competing to succeed her. The frontrunner appears to be state Assembly Majority Leader Joe Morelle, who has the support of much of the local political establishment, including Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren, as well as Slaughter's daughter and son-in-law.
Also in the running are Rochester City Councilor Adam McFadden, Bright Town Board Member Robin Wilt, and former TV reporter Rachel Barnhart, who took a distant third place with just 16 percent of the vote in the 2017 primary for mayor of Rochester. Morelle has decisively outspent the rest of the field, and it would be a surprise if he lost. However, he drew some unflattering press coverage in late May after he apologized for disbelieving rape allegations levied against a top legislative staffer in 2001; that staffer was charged with raping another woman two years later.
● OK-01 (R) (61-33 Trump, 66-34 Romney): GOP Rep. Jim Bridenstine resigned in April to head NASA, but thanks to a term-limits pledge, we’ve known for a long time that he wasn’t going to seek re-election. As a result, a crowded field of Republicans has been seeking to replace Bridenstine for quite some time in this safely red Tulsa seat. With so many candidates in the contest, this nomination likely won’t get resolved without an August runoff.
Wealthy businessman Kevin Hern has far outspent the rest of the field, but he's also attracted some powerful enemies. The anti-tax Club for Growth endorsed former Army intelligence officer Andy Coleman and has run ads attacking Hern for donating to Democrats. Bridenstine himself also seems to have a big grudge against Hern. A text message went out to the local media in the final week of the campaign from Bridenstine's personal phone claiming that Hern was improperly using the former congressman's image and name in his ads.
Hern outspent a third candidate, former Tulsa County District Attorney Tim Harris, $410,000 to $124,000 during the pre-primary period, while Coleman only spent $72,000, but both the Club and With Honor Fund are spending on his behalf. State Sen. Nathan Dahm and pastor Danny Stockwill are also in, but they've each spent little.
● SC-04 (R) (60-34 Trump, 62-36 Romney): Former state Sen. Lee Bright led wealthy state Sen. William Timmons 25-19 in the first round of the primary on June 12 to succeed retiring Rep. Trey Gowdy. Bright has a following with the far-right in this Spartanburg-area seat; among other things, he once proposed that South Carolina should issue its own currency, and he also tried to pass a version of North Carolina's notorious bathroom bill. Timmons, meanwhile, has tried to portray Bright as an extremist, though that may not exactly be a winning strategy with primary voters.
The Club for Growth endorsed Bright in the final week of the race and has been airing ads arguing Timmons supports higher taxes. The more establishment-aligned Conservative Leadership Alliance has come to Timmons’ aid and run ads for him.