The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AK-Gov: Things just got whole lot more complicated in Alaska after former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich jumped into the race for governor against independent incumbent Bill Walker. Walker had been planning on taking advantage of a state law would have let him run in the Democratic primary while remaining an independent, but he said on Friday that he will skip the primary and run as a pure independent now that Begich is in the contest.
Campaign Action
Walker only won his first term in 2014 by a narrow margin thanks to the support of Democrats and swing voters after Democratic nominee Byron Mallott dropped out of the contest to become Walker’s running mate that September. Consequently, having Begich running on his left flank and splitting their overlapping supporters could significantly increase the chances that both men lose to whomever Republicans eventually nominate in this conservative state.
It's unclear if Begich is trying to pressure Walker, who has had a tumultuous first term thanks to a budget crisis from declining oil revenue, into dropping out of the race entirely. Walker has until the Aug. 21 primary to file his signatures needed to appear on the ballot. But if they're both on the general election ballot this fall, it's hard to see how either stands a good chance of winning against the GOP.
Begich wasn’t the only major candidate to make a last-minute entry into the race. Former Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell joined the Republican primary on Friday; Treadwell had previously run in the 2014 Senate election but badly lost the GOP primary to Alaska’s then-Attorney General Dan Sullivan, who went on to narrowly oust Begich that November. Meanwhile, state Rep. Mike Chenault, who previously served as speaker, has dropped out of the Republican primary. His exit leaves Treadwell, former state Sen. Mike Dunleavy, and businessman Scott Hawkins as the most noteworthy Republicans in the race.
Senate
● CA-Sen, CA-Gov: With Tuesday's top-two primary almost here, we have two new polls of California's top statewide races. The first comes from UC Berkeley, whose Senate portion has Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Democratic state Sen. Kevin de Leon advancing to the general election with 36 percent and 11 percent, respectively, while little-known Republican James Bradley takes just 7 percent. Meanwhile, YouGov released a poll on behalf of Stanford University that has Feinstein up 36-11 over de Leon while Bradley earns only 6 percent.
YouGov also tested the gubernatorial race, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom holds a 33-17 advantage over businessman John Cox, a Republican. They give GOP Assemblyman Travis Allen with 10 percent, while Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat, takes just 9 percent. Recent polls from a variety of firms have consistently found Newson and Cox advancing.
● IN-Sen: Two Democratic groups, Senate Majority PAC and Priorities USA, are launching a $1 million digital ad buy against Republican nominee Mike Braun. The fifteen-second spot relays the story of how Braun's company fired one of his truckers who had emergency surgery, leaving him without health insurance, while it uses a damning AP article on Braun's business practices to argue he mistreated his employees in order to make more money for himself.
● MA-Sen, MA-Gov: On behalf of WBUR, MassInc has polled the Bay State, but competitive races are nowhere to be found. In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is cruising to at least a 54-19 advantage in three matchups against her various unheralded GOP challengers. Meanwhile, Republican Gov. Charlie Baker beats both of his underfunded Democratic foes, former state budget chief Jay Gonzalez and environmental activist Bob Massie, by a 60-20 landslide. Baker's 67 percent favorable and 9 percent unfavorable ratings makes him perhaps the most popular governor in the country.
● MO-Sen: Republican group One Nation has dropped $1.4 million on a TV ad supporting Republican state Attorney General Josh Hawley, although it's technically an "issue advocacy ad" that can't explicitly tell voters to back a particular candidate. Their spot praises Hawley for supposedly standing up to big tech companies to safeguard the privacy of Missourians.
● OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Fallon Research is out with a new poll for the conservative 1984 Society of both of Ohio's major statewide races. They find Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading GOP Rep. Jim Renacci 48-34, while Republican Mike DeWine leads Richard Cordray 40-34 in the contest for governor. This is the first poll we've seen of either race that was conducted after the early May primaries.
Meanwhile, Brown's latest ad accuses Renacci of having cheated on his taxes. The spot notes Renacci once filed a tax return that listed a loss of $247,000, even though auditors later determined he had made $13.7 million, resulting in millions in back taxes and penalties.
Gubernatorial
● IA-Gov: On Friday, former Gov. Chet Culver endorsed businessman Fred Hubbell for Tuesday's Democratic primary.
● MD-Gov: A lower state court has refused to order the state Board of Elections to put former Montgomery County Councilor Valerie Ervin's name on the Democratic primary ballot in place of her deceased running-mate Kevin Kamenetz. However, Ervin's attorney said they didn't expect the judge to grant their request for a temporary restraining order, but asking for one expedited the process so there will be a hearing on Monday over the issue. With early voting commencing on June 14, time is quickly running out to print new ballots.
Meanwhile, Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker has begun airing TV ads in the Baltimore area for the first time, and it's backed by $90,000 for a week's span. The spot features Baker touting his efforts to revitalize neighborhoods as county executive, and he argues it can be done in Baltimore, too. He calls for law enforcement to be retrained to reduce police brutality while still making neighborhoods safer. The end of the ad briefly flashes text showing he's been endorsed by Sen. Chris Van Hollen and The Washington Post.
● ME-Gov: State Attorney General Janet Mills has returned fire on businessman Adam Cote in the Democratic primary, airing an ad that attacks him after he recently shot first over her environmental record. The first half of Mills' spot highlights how she took on GOP Gov. Paul LePage and fought for more gun safety. The second half berates Cote for running supposedly false attacks, which go unnamed, while she also calls him out for having previously been a registered Republican.
● NY-Gov: Former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner had been considering joining the Democratic primary for governor for quite some time, but now she has oddly floated the idea of running as an independent, even while not ruling out running in Team Blue's primary. Miner has been publicly considering running for higher office for more than a year, but her indecisiveness about which office to run for—and now even which party banner to run under—warrant some skepticism about this latest idea. The filing deadline for state races isn't until July 12, so we'll have several more weeks to see whether she keeps up this Hamlet act or actually ends up running.
● RI-Gov: Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo has launched what her campaign is calling a "six-figure" buy for her first TV ad ahead of the September primary. The minute-long spot highlights her upbringing in a blue-collar family that was part of the old Rhode Island, the one that existed before widespread outsourcing of manufacturing jobs. She transitions to talking about the "other" old Rhode Island, the one that had the nation's highest unemployment rate in 2014. Raimondo touts the businesses and new jobs that have come to Rhode Island over her four years as governor.
● SC-Gov: State Rep. James Smith's latest ad ahead of the June 12 Democratic primary takes square aim at Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, and it's backed with a $100,000 buy. The spot shows Smith castigating McMaster for refusing to take federal funds to expand Medicaid, costing 125,000 South Carolinians their health care and hurting rural hospitals. Smith promises to expand Medicaid instead.
House
● CA-48: While the DCCC has spent heavily to try to stop former Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh from advancing in Tuesday's top-two primary, they've launched a very late attempt to boost Some Dude Republican John Gabbard. The DCCC is spending at least $66,000 on ads and $13,000 on mail, while the SEIU is spending another $40,000 to boost Gabbard. Democrats are likely hoping to divert some Republican voters who don't want to back Rep. Dana Rohrabacher from Baugh to Gabbard.
● CA-49: Two late polls give us two different reads of Tuesday's top-two primary for this open seat. SurveyUSA finds Republican Diane Harkey firmly ahead with 24 percent, and a complete muddle for the second general election spot. Democrats Doug Applegate and Sara Jacobs take 11, Democrat Mike Levin is at 10, while Democrat Paul Kerr and Republican Rocky Chavez each are at 8.
By contrast, the Democratic firm Tulchin Research, which is polling for an unnamed Democratic group interested in the race, finds no clear favorite for either general election spot. Levin takes 17 while Harkey is at 15, Applegate at 12, and Jacobs and Chavez at 11. National Democrats have spent heavily against Chavez while ignoring Harkey, so they seem to believe she's likely to get a general election spot and the real battle is for second.
● FL-27: State Rep. David Richardson continues to attack former University of Miami president Donna Shalala in the Democratic primary, and his latest offering is a Spanish-language spot. The commercial showcases Richardson speaking in Spanish about his time in the state legislature, while he advocates for Medicare for all and says he'll oppose Donald Trump. The spot features a translated clip of Shalala on The Colbert Report a decade ago where she tells Stephen Colbert that she isn't "one of those universal health care people." The ad closes by claiming she made millions serving on the board of United Healthcare, arguing she works only for herself, not for everyone else.
● NY-11: Former Rep. Mike Grimm is up with his first cable spot ahead of the June 26 GOP primary, and—surprise!—it's only running on Fox News. Even though Trump just endorsed Rep. Dan Donovan, Grimm isn't abandoning his Trumpier than thou campaign. Grimm tells the audience that Donovan has opposed Trump "[e]very time it mattered." Politico says the initial buy is for $30,000.
● TX-07: The DCCC is out with a survey from their in-house polling unit giving GOP Rep. John Culberson a 47-45 lead over Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher. While this is the first poll we've seen of this contest, outside groups from both parties have each reserved around $2 million in fall TV time here, so there seems to be bipartisan agreement that this will be quite a competitive race.
● TX-23: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has launched a six-figure buy praising GOP Rep. Will Hurd for "fighting to protect the Dreamers" as well as "leading the charge for new border security measures that will keep our communities safe."
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