The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
● Primaries: Tuesday brought us primaries in eight states—Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota—and we’ll cover the outcomes the next Digest, but in the meantime, you can find the raw results here. Note that because of the popularity of voting by mail, it will take a while to count all the votes in California, so the results could shift materially in some contests.
Leading Off
● MN-05, MN-AG: On Tuesday, Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison ended his re-election campaign and announced a bid for state attorney general, a decision that came a day after Attorney General Lori Swanson launched a last-minute bid for governor.
Ellison leaves behind a Minneapolis-based House seat that backed Hillary Clinton 74-18, one that the winner of the August Democratic primary won't have any trouble holding. Tuesday was the deadline for candidates to file in Minnesota, so the congressman’s would-be successors had little time to decide whether to run, but eight did so nevertheless.
Campaign Action
There are four current elected officials in the contest. State Rep. Ilhan Omar’s 2016 win made her the first Somali-American state legislator in the country; along with Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, she’s seeking to become the first Muslim woman elected to Congress from any state. State Sen. Bobby Joe Champion and Minneapolis School Board member Kim Ellison, who is the congressman's former wife, would be the state’s second black member of Congress (Keith Ellison was the first). State Sen. Patricia Torres Ray would be the state’s first Hispanic member.
We also have two former state legislators. Former state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher left the legislature in 2010 to run for governor, and she lost a tight primary to Dayton. Former state Sen. Julie Sabo was elected to her only term in 2000, and she lost the 2002 primary to lieutenant governor; Sabo’s late father is Martin Sabo, who represented Minneapolis from 1979 until he retired in 2007. We also have engineer Jamal Abdulahi, the founder of the state party’s Somali-American Caucus. And lastly there’s 2016 GOP nominee Frank Drake, who appears to have switched parties. We’re confident Drake won’t win, but it’s far too early to asses the other seven candidates’ chances.
As for Ellison, he faces a crowded primary of his own for attorney general. Swanson's abrupt change of plans inspired several other Democrats to run as well, including former Attorney General Mike Hatch, who narrowly lost the 2006 race for governor to GOP incumbent Tim Pawlenty; former Ramsey County Attorney Tom Foley; state Rep. Debra Hilstrom; former Minnesota Commerce Commissioner Mike Rothman; and little-known attorney Matt Pelikan, whose surprisingly strong showing at last weekend’s party convention prompted Swanson’s move. Ellison, however, quickly earned the endorsement of outgoing Gov. Mark Dayton.
The most noteworthy Republican in the race for attorney general looks like attorney Doug Wardlow, who was elected to his only term in the state House in 2010.
Race Ratings
● AK-Gov: When former Sen. Mark Begich decided to run for governor just ahead of Friday's candidate filing deadline, he transformed the race from a two-way contest into a three-way battle—and in so doing, he reshaped the landscape such that Republicans now have a much stronger chance at reclaiming the governorship. That's because, as things stand now, the general election will feature one Democrat (Begich), one independent closely linked to Democrats (Gov. Bill Walker), and whomever the GOP nominates. Even in a blue state, that would be a recipe for split on the left that could very well hand an election to Republicans; in a state as red as Alaska, it's even more dire.
Things could certainly change before November: Begich might be playing a high-stakes game of chicken with Walker, who, as an independent candidate, has until Aug. 21 to file for re-election. That's also the same day as the state's primaries, and Begich, as the only Democrat to file, is now assured of the party's nomination. At that juncture, it's possible that either man could drop out, which is what happened (albeit under friendlier circumstances) in 2014, when Democratic nominee Byron Mallott dropped his bid for governor to become Walker's running-mate.
Hopefully someone will back down before it's too late, but right now, the playing field is heavily tilted toward the GOP. As such, we're moving our rating on this race from Tossup to Likely Republican, though if we wind up with a one-on-one contest in the end, we're apt to change this rating again.
Senate
● IN-Sen: Senate Majority PAC has launched an $800,000 TV ad buy to oppose Republican nominee Mike Braun. Their spot calls out Braun for trying to portray himself as just an average Hoosier by wearing a blue button-front shirt in all his ads and at debates, when in reality he's a big-business millionaire. The ad cites a recent AP report to hammer him for widespread workplace violations that included "unsafe conditions and refusing overtime pay," and it also accuses him of hypocrisy for taking millions in taxpayer subsidies.
Gubernatorial
● CO-Gov: Rep. Jared Polis' latest Democratic primary ad features numerous self-described teachers who say they are fed up with former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy's allegedly false attacks on Polis' education record. They claim Polis has always voted against school vouchers in Congress and has always been a strong supporter of public schools. The spot is a response to a recent ad from a super PAC supporting Kennedy that argued that both Polis and former state Sen. Mike Johnston supported policies that hurt teachers and public schools.
● GA-Gov: Rep. Jody Hice endorsed Secretary of State Brian Kemp this week ahead of the July 24 GOP primary runoff.
● IL-Gov: The battle of the billionaires is now well under way in Illinois, with both GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner and Democratic nominee J.B. Pritzker putting their massive self-funding to use by airing their first general election ads. Rauner's first spot is for $1 million, and it tries to tie Pritzker to disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich by playing an FBI wiretap of a phone conversation where the two discussed potential Senate appointees.
Meanwhile, Pritzker's spot features a working-class union member who excoriates Rauner over the governor's failure to pass a budget. The man argues that the state's budget dispute led to layoffs of construction workers like himself, meaning important infrastructure didn’t get fixed thanks to Rauner's intransigence.
● KS-Gov: Candidate filing closed in Kansas on Friday for the Aug. 7 primary, and the state has a list of contenders here.
Republican Jeff Colyer was elevated from lieutenant governor to governor at the end of January after Sam Brownback finally escaped the state thanks to a minor ambassadorship, but Colyer had no time to get comfortable. Secretary of State Kris Kobach, the country’s most notorious voter suppression crusader, has been running for a year, and he looks like Colyer's main primary foe.
A recent poll from the GOP firm Remington Research gave Colyer a bare 29-27 lead over Kobach, with 2006 nominee Jim Barnett and state Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer in the single digits. However, Kobach had trouble raising money last year, and if he doesn't pick up the pace, he could have a tough time expanding his support.
Brownback's radical tax cuts have left Kansas in horrible financial shape, and Democrats are hoping that his awful legacy will give them an opening in what's usually a very red state. State Sen. Laura Kelly has the support of EMILY's List and former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, and she had more money than her primary rivals at the end of 2017 despite only entering the contest in late December. Kelly's main intra-party foes are former state Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty, whose anti-abortion record in the legislature from the last decade has made him some enemies, and former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, who struggled to raise money last year.
Wealthy businessman Greg Orman is running as an independent, and he could end up hurting Democrats considerably more than Republicans. In 2014, Orman became the de facto Democratic candidate against GOP Sen. Pat Roberts after the Democratic Party arranged for its nominee to withdraw, so with this pedigree, Orman is much more like to draw votes from the left than the right.
Orman had a considerably larger war chest than any of the Democrats at the end of last year, so he'll have an easier time getting out his message than most independent candidates. And in a state as red as this, Republicans can simply afford to lose more voters to an independent than Democrats can and still win. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Likely Republican.
● MD-Gov: On Monday, a lower court state judge rejected former Montgomery County Councilor Valerie Ervin's lawsuit to have her name added to the Democratic primary ballot in place of her deceased running-mate, Kevin Kamenetz. Election administrators have said they will post notices at polling places, on sample ballots, and online that votes cast for Kamenetz will count for Ervin, but Ervin has expressed dissatisfaction with that solution. However, Ervin didn't declare whether she would appeal, but with early voting commencing on June 14, time is quickly running out.
Meanwhile, Abt Associates has polled the race on behalf of the Washington Post and the University of Maryland. In the Democratic primary, they have former NAACP president Ben Jealous leading with 21 percent, followed by Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker at 16, Ervin at 8, and state Sen. Richard Madaleno at 6. In hypothetical general election matchups, Republican Gov. Larry Hogan leads Madaleno by a 50-40 spread, while he bests both Jealous and Baker 51-39. The other Democrats trail by larger margins.
● SC-Gov: Former state cabinet member Catherine Templeton has begun airing attack ads against businessman John Warren, whom a recent Target-Insyght poll found trailing her just 25-20 for the important second-place spot in the June 12 primary. Templeton's spot claims Warren is "not 100 percent pro-life" and that he’s "open to stronger gun control laws." She accuses him of being "bankrolled by a liberal super PAC boss" and raising money in (heaven forfend!) New York. Both candidates are hoping to get into a runoff with Gov. Henry McMaster, whom Target-Insyght had at 37 percent, a bit short of the majority he’d need in order to win outright next week.
Meanwhile, a pro-McMaster group called Palmetto PAC has launched an ad that accuses Templeton and Warren of failing to support Trump during the 2016 presidential election. The second half of the spot contends only McMaster stood by Trump "from day one" as footage plays of a rally where Trump endorsed the governor.
House
● CO-03: Former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush has debuted her first TV ad ahead of the June 26 Democratic primary. The spot praises her work to protect the environment and safeguard Colorado's public lands, along with her efforts to improve public education and ensure access to affordable health care. The segment finishes by highlighting her endorsements from former Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, former Sen. Mark Udall, and former Gov. Bill Ritter.
● KS-02: While Kansas’ open 2nd Congressional District, which includes Topeka and nearby rural areas, went from 56-42 Romney to 56-37 Trump, national Republicans have openly fretted about how worried they are that they might lose it. The Democrats are fielding former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis, who faces no primary opposition. Davis not only carried this seat 51-45 against GOP Gov. Sam Brownback during his unsuccessful 2014 gubernatorial bid, he had a solid $669,000 war chest at the end of March.
Meanwhile, seven Republicans have filed to run to succeed retiring Rep. Lynn Jenkins, and national Republicans have been very unimpressed with their candidates' fundraising. State Sen. Caryn Tyson, who self-funded just under half her campaign through March, had the largest bank account on the GOP side with $333,000 on-hand. Army veteran Steve Watkins, whose bid is almost entirely self-funded, had $218,000 to spend.
State Sen. Steve Fitzgerald, who has repeatedly compared abortion to the Holocaust, has also provided most of his campaign's cash, and he had $203,000 to spend. Basehor City Councilor Vernon Fields and state Rep. Kevin Jones, a retired Army Green Beret who lasted all of three seconds as an "American Ninja Warrior" contestant in 2015, and are also in, but they've each raised very little.
Two Republicans entered the race after the fundraising quarter ended in March, so Team Red will need to wait until mid-July to get a sense for their fundraising capabilities. Former state House Speaker Doug Mays departed from the legislature in 2006, and he left a lobbying job to run. State Sen. Dennis Pyle, who lost a 2010 primary challenge to Jenkins 57-43, is also in, but he only narrowly won re-election 51-49 in 2016 even as Trump was taking his seat by a giant 71-23 margin.
The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved $1.25 million in fall TV time for this race, while the House Majority PAC, a major Democratic group, has invested $240,000 in the Topeka market; they've also booked $660,000 in Kansas City that could be divided between this seat and the 3rd.
● KS-03: This suburban Kansas City seat swung from 54-44 Romney to 47-46 Clinton, and Democrats are hoping to give GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder a serious fight.
Six Democrats have filed to run here, and there's no clear frontrunner. Businessman and 2016 nominee Jay Sidie likely begins the race with the most name recognition following his 51-41 loss, but he ended March with a tiny $31,000 in the bank. The candidate with the largest war chest is labor lawyer Brent Welder with $362,000 on hand, but he only recently moved to Kansas from the St. Louis area. Not too far behind was teacher Tom Niermann with $319,000 banked.
Retired banker Sylvia Williams, whom we hadn't mentioned before, hasn't raised much from donors, but she had $237,000 to spend thanks to a loan of about that amount. Nonprofit technology director Mike McCamon has also been mostly self-funding, and he had $146,000 in his campaign account. Attorney Sharice Davids had a smaller $122,000 war chest, but she recently picked up an endorsement from EMILY's List; along with New Mexico’s Deb Haaland, Davids is hoping to be the first Native American woman to serve in Congress.
Yoder, meanwhile, had just shy of $2 million in the bank, and the pro-Republican Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved $1.7 million in fall TV time for this seat. As noted in our KS-02 item above, the House Majority PAC has reserved $660,000 for the Kansas City media market, though some of that money may go to the neighboring 2nd District.
● KS-04: Some Republicans talked about challenging Rep. Ron Estes in the primary after he won last year's special election for this 60-33 Trump seat by a weak 52-46, but his only intra-party opponent turned out to be Ron Estes. No, we're not being philosophical. Instead, a Some Dude named Ron Estes is challenging the congressman under the slogan "The Real Ron Estes."
The state is planning to identify the incumbent on the ballot as "Rep. Ron Estes," while the challenger is listed as "Ron M. Estes." The Topeka Capitol-Journal writes that, while state law normally prohibits identifying candidates on the ballot by their title or "other designations of accomplishment," that restriction "doesn't apply if a prefix is needed to distinguish between candidates." However, Democratic candidate Laura Lombard is suing to get the "Rep." removed from the congressman's ballot name, arguing that it's not necessary because the challenger is using his middle initial to distinguish himself from the incumbent.
Unless primary voters are incredibly confused or Ron M. Estes turns out tobe a shockingly strong candidate, this real-life version of "The Distinguished Gentleman" should end in a win for Rep. Ron Estes. He'll likely face a rematch with James Thompson, who lost the 2017 special election, but it should be a considerably less competitive contest now that Estes is the incumbent.
● MI-13: On Tuesday, a Wayne County Circuit Court judge ruled against hedge fund partner John Conyers III's lawsuit seeking a place on the August Democratic primary ballot. Last month, the Wayne County clerk announced that Conyers, the son of former Rep. John Conyers, had turned in only 943 valid signatures, 57 short of the 1,000 he needed to qualify. Conyers' attorney says he'll appeal Tuesday's decision.
● MN-08: Former state Rep. Joe Radinovich is out with a mid-May poll from Victoria Research that gives him a slim 17-16 lead over retired Duluth news anchor Michelle Lee in the August Democratic primary. State Rep. Jason Metsa takes 9, while North Branch Mayor Kirsten Kennedy is at 6. This is the first poll we've seen of the primary to succeed retiring Rep. (and newly-minted candidate for lieutenant governor) Rick Nolan.
● NY-11: Siena College is out with the first independent poll of the June 26 GOP primary in New York’s 11th District, and they give former Rep. Mike Grimm a 47-37 lead over Rep. Dan Donovan. However, a major development took place while this poll was in the field: Donald Trump tweeted out his support for Donovan on the evening of May 30. The survey was conducted from May 29 to June 3, and Siena says Trump’s endorsement came before the majority of the calls were complete, but this is still the kind of thing that leaves pollsters gnashing their teeth.
Trump argued in his tweet that Grimm, who spent seven months in prison on 2015 after pleading guilty to tax evasion charges, would lose this Staten Island-based seat in the November general election, and this primary poll does indicate that Grimm would be a weaker general election candidate than Donovan. While 81 percent of Grimm supporters say they'd vote for Donovan in November, only 55 percent of Donovan's voters say they'd be for Grimm. Of course, Trump himself is proof that many primary voters will end up backing their party's nominee even after loudly pledging that they'd #never do such a thing.
● NY-18, NY-AG: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney has now formed a campaign committee for a potential run for state attorney general. Maloney has said that he'll announce his plans by Wednesday.
● NY-21: Businesswoman Tedra Cobb has unveiled her first ad ahead of the June 26 democratic primary, which her campaign says is part of a $200,000 buy on broadcast and cable throughout the district for the next three weeks. The spot showcases how she founded a nonprofit to help people in the region get access to health care, something that especially affects her family because her daughter has a costly chronic condition. Cobb blasts Congress for making health care worse and vows she knows how to fix it.
● SC-04: With one week to go before Election Day, the Club for Growth has endorsed former Spartanburg County party chair Josh Kimbrell. Kimbrell is one of several Republicans fighting for this safely red Spartanburg-area seat, and there's little question there will be a July 26 runoff.
● UT-03: Dan Jones & Associates has polled the June 26 GOP primary in Utah's 3rd District, and they find Rep. John Curtis demolishing former state Rep. Chris Herrod in a 65-18 landslide. That would mark a major improvement for Curtis from last year's special election primary, where he outpaced Herrod by a much closer 43-33 margin.
● VA-07: Marine veteran Dan Ward's latest ad ahead of next week's Democratic primary touts his record of military service and his role as an adviser to the Obama-era State Department. As footage of Donald Trump appears on-screen, Ward asserts, "So I know something about dictators who tell you what you want to hear, use you, and leave you with nothing." He promises to stand up to Trump, fight for affordable health care, and create good jobs.
Legislative
● Special Elections: We had an unusual three-way Monday special election. Johnny Longtorso brings us the rundown:
Connecticut HD-04: This was a hold for the Democrats. Hartford City Councilor Julio Concepcion won with 66 percent of the vote, while Jessica Inacio, a Democrat who petitioned her way onto the ballot, took 29. (Inacio was listed on the ballot as a "petitioning candidate" rather than as a Democrat.) Republican Bryan Nelson finished last with 5.
This district became open when Democratic state Rep. Angel Arce resigned following reports that he sent inappropriate Facebook messages to a 16-year-old girl. This seat went 88-9 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 93-7 for Barack Obama in 2012.
And why was this race held on a Monday? According to a press release from Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy, "Under state law, the governor is required to issue a Writ of Special Election within ten days of a legislative vacancy and a special election must be held exactly 46 days after the writ is issued." That 10-day period in theory gave Malloy the power to schedule the race for Tuesday, May 29, but that was just one day after the Memorial Day holiday, so it’s possible Malloy wanted to avoid that date.