High Water Mark of Trump Presidency: Collapse Beckons
In retrospect, the announcement of Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court on July 9, 2018 may be viewed as the high water mark of the Trump Presidency, like Pickett's Charge at Gettysburg on July 3, 1863.
Today on Cemetery Ridge you can see the Angle Stone Wall where Confederate troops of General Lewis Armistad's brigade briefly breached the Union lines. They were beaten back by Union troops from the 72nd Pennsylvania and from Vermont. Armistad was killed. Half of Confederate troops were casualties.
Donald Trump once again has kicked the hornet's nest to the delight of his supporters. But in physics and politics actions have consequences. For example, today Elon Musk announced that Tesla will build a giga-factory in Shanghai to produce 500,000 Teslas a year.
As Trump unchained starts global trade wars, jails infants, attacks Nato allies, embraces dictators, and now credibly threatens abortion rights, gay rights, and Obamacare, he has unleashed a constellation of political forces that will likely lead, sooner or later, to the demise of his Presidency.
First, the last of the competent and sober Republican staff are leaving the White House, like Marc Short seasoned Director of Legislative Affairs. Anticipated is the resignation/firing of John Kelly, reportedly now Chief of Staff in name only. President Trump unchained is surrounded by yes-men and yes-woman and Fox news commentators staffing the White House. He muses that he will be his own Chief of Staff .
Second, Trump's effective ability to threaten Republican Senators and Representatives with primary challenges will substantially end this September after the last 2018 Republican primaries are held. On Wednesday, November 7, 2018, the 2020 Presidential campaign begins in earnest, the day after congressional mid-term elections.
It was sagely remarked by a Republican politico that Democratic voters will crawl across broken glass to vote against Trump. If such a blue wave returns the House to Democratic control in 2018, primary challenges in 2020 will be the least of Republican concerns.
Third, a Democratic House is certain to unleash an avalanche of investigations into a litany of Trump malfeasance, misfeasance and outright criminality. This will mean ceaseless negative headlines, more resignations, firings and grand juries. Impeachment proceedings become a matter of not if, but when
Fourth, the Muller and related investigations of Donald Trump, his family and associates will likely lead in 2018 or 2019 to detailed and well documented findings of impeachable offenses as well as criminal conduct in New York State that cannot be protected by self-pardoning. Reading the Manafort indictment, supported with page after page of documented financial transactions and purchases, reflects detailed work of a careful prosecutorial team. If a pile of such evidence of criminal activity by the President emerges, it matters little if the Supreme Court rules a sitting President can't be indicted. He can certainly be impeached and then tried and jailed in New York even if pardoned by President Pence.
Yes, President Pence. As happened to Richard Nixon, when the evidence of his multiple crimes was finally on the table and House impeachment inevitable, a Republican Senatorial delegation, including uber-conservative Senator Barry Goldwater, told Richard Nixon he was done. I suspect, as early as late 2018 or sometime in 2019, it will be politically necessary for the Republican Party to turn to the solidly conservative Vice President as the man to save them from the Trump disaster. The sooner the better for their political fates in 2020.
Donald Trump, given the alternative between a pardon from Mike Pence and a deal from New York State, or the prospect of serious jail time, will likely choose to resign, and seek refuge under the protection of one of his favorite dictators hosting a suitable Trump resort.
Or perhaps Donald Trump will fight impeachment in the Senate, blame Hillary and the media, incite civil war, declare a state of emergency and martial law. It could be up to Secretary of Defense James Mattis to order the troops to return to their barracks, like Spanish King Juan Carlos did to stop an attempted military coup in the Cortes. And Mattis, with the help of a battalion of Marines, arrests the President and his henchmen.
We will see. Powerful political, economic and social forces have been unleashed that are only being exacerbated and accelerated by President Donald Trump unchained.
Roy Morrison”s latest book is Sustainability Sutra (2017). He builds solar farms.
Fact check :
Jul 5, 2013 - The High-Water Mark of the Confederacy. After two days of indecisive conflict, the Union Army sealed its victory at Gettysburg on July 3, 1863, by repulsing a Confederate attack over nearly a mile of open ground, directed at the center of the federal defense.
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