This is a diary series I’ve begun where every day (more or less) until the election, I’ll be highlighting one competitive race, giving some background, and information about how to help out. The goal is to go senate, governors, then house, focusing on competitive races.
The Democrat
Tammy Baldwin’s beginnings in government were about as anonymous as you could get. As a 24 year old lawyer in Madison, Wisconsin, she got elected to a 9,500 person seat in a 37 member county government. You shouldn’t quite be thinking Parks and Rec, but mid-sized county government is not something you pursue for the glamour. She came out as lesbian during her time on the Board of Supervisors.
While I don’t want to reduce her story to simply her sexuality, being out was often a reputation that preceded her for years and years, and it’s important to remember that she rose through the levels of government while living in a state where homosexual relations were only legalized while she was in law school.
Her 1992 decision to run for state house was met with resistance. “You’re too young, you’re too liberal, you’re a lesbian, you’re a woman” was how she described her the initial reaction to her bid. But she prevailed in the primary by 9% (hint: “too liberal” is not an effective attack in Madison) and spent three terms as a fiercely liberal advocate in the state assembly.
In 1998, she made the decision to run for US house. While the current WI-02 is solidly Democratic today, in 1998 it was a district that had barely voted for Dukakis and had a history of supporting moderate to liberal Republicans. When one of those, retired, Baldwin ran for the open house seat. Facing the same headwinds as her house race, and this time with the concern that she could lose Democrats a prime pickup opportunity, she won a fractured primary field on the strength of Madison, and won a close general on its strength as well. After a strong challenge in 2000, she was given a safer seat in redistricting, and did not face another competitive house election. In her time in the chamber, she focused on healthcare, even authoring the famous ACA amendment that kept young adults on their parents’ insurance.
The Republican(s)
I said that Arizona is the only state in the country where we don’t know the senate matchup yet in the last diary. Honestly, I hadn’t been paying attention to the Republican primary in Wisconsin, and as it turns out, what had been a clear 2:1 or 3:1 lead in the spring has turned into a close race. My bad. The only other competitive primaries are in states without a competitive general. I swear.
Leah Vukmir is a state senator from crucial Waukesha County. She was a nurse from Brookfield in 2002, when her lack of faith in her daughter’s schooling lead her to run for an open assembly seat. She succeeded an obscure assemblyman named Scott Walker, who probably didn’t have too much impact after that. In 2010, she became an integral part of the Tea Party takeover of Wisconsin, running a well publicized senate race against a Democratic incumbent, whom she wound up unseating by a surprisingly wide margin in November. She’s been a loyal Walker ally her entire time in the senate, and has earned the endorsement of just about every Republican officeholder in the state. You can think of her as the “establishment” choice.
Kevin Nicholson is a weird one. He was involved in politics early, and inspired by his liberal parents, he joined the College Democrats and spoke at the 2000 DNC. Which is an odd resume line for a Republican senate candidate. He then served in Iraq, went to grad school, voted in the 2008 Democratic primary, and spent a few years in the private sector before Republicans saw potential in him and got Scott Walker to appoint him to something. You can think of him as the anti-establishment choice. He’s gotten some Tea Party, Trumpist, and alt-right endorsements.
The State
Wisconsin was arguably the birthplace of the Republican Party, and was also the center of the progressive and socialist movements of the early 20th century. If you’re think that that was because Republicans were progressive then, that’s correct in some ways, but the better explanation is that the state’s just politically bipolar. It will elect progressive Democrats and conservative Republicans on a whim. Baldwin and Johnson are two senators from one state who vote the most differently from each other. Wisconsin’s very swingy. Here’s a good rule of thumb for senate and governor races: the out-party will win unless it’s a presidential election, and then the party of whoever’s carrying the state will win. That’s worked 11/11 times since 2000. Iowa is the only other state with that streak. The state tends to move with the political winds is what I'm saying.
Democrats have two main areas of strength: Milwaukee and Madison. They also usually do well in small industrial cities like Green Bay and Eau Claire. Republicans do best in the suburbs of Milwaukee, especially in the WOW (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington Counties) region, also known as the Circle of Ignorance. The rural voters in the state are very elastic. They’re more Democratic in the southwest, known as the Driftless Region, and Republican elsewhere.
The History
Herb Kohl’s retirement wasn’t a surprise. He was in his 70s and there were rumors he’d be getting out for a while. Originally the suspicion was that Russ Feingold would be using the race for a comeback after his shocking loss in 2010. Instead Tammy Baldwin entered and support closed around her. This was a something of a surprise, since she’s basically the embodiment of a Madison liberal, and the conventional wisdom is that those play poorly in rest of the state.
On the Republican side, four term retired governor Tommy Thompson was the favorite, but cracks began to show in his campaign early. Thompson had a relatively moderate reputation which didn’t sit well with the activist base, and his campaign skills were obviously rustly. Luckily for him, he drew three serious opponents who thought they could be “the” conservative alternative. They split that proportion of the vote, and Thompson won with 34% of the vote.
Thompson began with with a small polling lead, and Baldwin went to work. She presented a fresh, energetic face to her campaign, which contrasted well with 70 year old Thompson. And he was a rusty campaigner, often coming off as annoyed to be doing the work of a candidate. Baldwin especially made hay of the lobbying he’d done since his time as governor. Mostly, she just outworked him. Thompson’s lead slowly dwindled until it was a deficit by election day, and then a 6% win for Baldwin. The senate, by the way, was the fourth straight legislative chamber she was the first out lesbian to be in.
The 2018 Race
Baldwin had a close-ish 2012 race, and has had a progressive voting since. Plus, Wisconsin went to Trump. If you ask conservative megadonors, they'll likely give you those reasons for their intense negative ad spending against her, at one point more than the rest of the states combined. It'll have nothing to do with her being a tough woman who's proudly gay and happily unmarried. Regardless of why, that massive amount of ad spending has flowed in, keeping the race at least somewhat competitive. Baldwin has been positioning herself as a fighter for the state. Interestingly, while she may be using some more moderate rhetoric, she's not been going the route of casting herself as moderate or bipartisan, and is openly critical of Trump.
The Republican primary has been as predictable as you'd expect. Nicholson is calling Vukmir a career politician, and Vukmir's saying he's not a real Republican. Although, Nicholson's parents did donate to Baldwin, which is pretty cool.
Big issues
- Tariffs: Not only does Wisconsin grow a lot of soybeans, but it's a huge dairy farming state, which is being impacted by a separate retaliatory tariff from Canada
- Foxconn: Scott Walker gave away a lot in tax breaks and environmental law requirements to lure Foxconn and its jobs into southeast Wisconsin. That region likes the deal and the rest of the state is unimpressed.
Fundraising:
- As of June 30, Baldwin had $7.2M, and was raising roughly $1.5M per month
- As of March 31, Nicholson had $838K and was raising roughly $335K per month.
- As of March 31, Ward had $638K and was raising roughly $125K per month.
Polling:
Baldwin is in great shape. Polling has her around or above 50%, and both of her potential competitors are hovering around 40%. It should be cautioned that these are pre-primary polls, so it shouldn't be surprising if the eventual nominee gains. But that's good position. Baldwin has the wind at her back, and it shows.
Getting Involved:
It's not true that Clinton ignored Wisconsin. It is true that she payed a lot less attention to it than did Obama, and the election effort was under-resourced. We saw what the result was. So if you live in the state, please help out. I don’t want to actively advocate against donating to Democrats, but senate races are very expensive and you get some of the worst return on donating to them. But if the senate’s very important to you, and you want to give financially to the competitive races, here’s Baldwin's ActBlue.