Gallup’s been asking the public whether it’s in favor of a Supreme Court nominee’s confirmation, against it, or don’t have an opinion since 1987. On average, across 10 nominations, 49 percent supported confirmation and 26 percent opposed it, initially. But in a poll taken immediately after the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, July 10-15, just 41 percent of respondents want to see him confirmed to the court while a whopping 37 percent do not.
Kavanaugh’s initial numbers are worse than those of any prior nominee—including Harriet Miers. The margin of support for Miers and Robert Bork, both unsuccessful, shrank as the confirmation process wound on and each side had the chance to expand on their case for or against the candidate. Bork started with 31 percent in favor and 25 percent opposed. He ended up with 38 percent in favor, and 35 percent opposed. That’s just a three-point margin in the final days before his nomination was withdrawn.
Kavanaugh’s starting margin of support is just four points, smaller than any other nominee’s. In Gallup’s initial polls for the 10 other nominees it tracked, Neil Gorsuch was up by 13 points; Merrick Garland by 23; Elena Kagan by 14; Sonia Sotomayor by 26; Samuel Alito by 25; Miers, by 8; John Roberts by 37; Ruth Bader Ginsburg by 39; Clarence Thomas by 35; and Robert Bork by 6. Only Miers began the confirmation process with a “not vote in favor” rating close to Kavanaugh’s, with 36 percent of respondents already opposed at the outset.
Gallup’s announcement comes just as Republicans finally gave in and withdrew Ryan Bounds from consideration for the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. That withdrawal is a big deal. The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights’s Vanita Gupta, formerly of the Obama DOJ, put it well:
These initial numbers suggest that progressives’ grassroots-heavy plan for opposing Kavanaugh could well be the key to sinking his nomination. Even Republicans senators care about constituents’ views, after all.
Friday, Jul 20, 2018 · 10:10:57 PM +00:00 · Rebecca Pilar Buckwalter Poza
Progressive groups have certainly seen the numbers as promising. "Americans are already learning about Kavanaugh's anti-healthcare, anti-abortion record, so it's not surprising that he has even less support than failed nominees Miers and Bork," replied Chris Kang, Chief Counsel of Demand Justice, a major progressive group fighting Trump’s judicial agenda. "Polls also show that the intensity gap during Gorsuch's confirmation
has been erased—progressives are much more engaged—so Kavanaugh's numbers may fall even further."