Writing in the most recent issue of Nature Climate Change, lead author Andrew King and colleagues inform us that the data tell us a grim story of rising temperatures, even if we somehow avoid the worst case scenarios for carbon combustion induced heating of the planet:
On average, in the simulated 1.5oC [increase over current] world, 90 million people (or 11% of the estimated 2010 population of the continent) are exposed to hot summers beyond the observed record (that is, half of the summers would have more than 90 million people exposed to historically unprecedented summer average temperatures). (pg. 550)
The exposure of populations to historically unprecedented summer heat increases dramatically even at the relatively low global warming levels of the Paris Agreement. (pg. 550)
Few of us realize the scope of the public health effects caused by these extreme heat events, but they are dramatic. As Scientific American reports:
Researchers believe that global warming is already responsible for some 150,000 deaths each year around the world, and fear that the number may well double by 2030 even if we start getting serious about emissions reductions today.
A team of health and climate scientists from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the University of Wisconsin at Madison published these findings last year in the prestigious, peer-reviewed science journal Nature. Besides killing people, global warming also contributes to some five million human illnesses every year, the researchers found. Some of the ways global warming negatively affects human health—especially in developing nations—include: speeding the spread of infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever; creating conditions that lead to potentially fatal malnutrition and diarrhea; and increasing the frequency and severity of heat waves, floods and other weather-related disasters.
How bad will this get? According to the World Health Organization:
Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress.
The only rational response is to discontinue the use of carbon combustion, and begin massive mitigation efforts globally.
Of course, no one would accuse the GOP (currently in control of the federal government of two-thirds of the states) of being rational:
After receiving billions in tax cuts at the end of last year, oil and gas companies can expect another year of record-breaking profits. While Exxon alone received $5.9 billion in tax breaks, companies that do oil exploration can expect an additional $190 billion in profits. And yesterday, the second-largest coal company in the country, Arch Coal, announced the new tax plan would lower their tax rate to “effectively zero.” To pay for these giveaways, the Trump budget proposes cutting several programs that enforce pollution laws, fund clean energy innovation, and protect outdoor places. Trump’s cuts effectively subsidize oil, gas, and coal companies, severely hamper renewable energy growth, all while weakening protections for public health and the outdoors.