Russia's 2016 election attack isn't at issue in the bank and tax fraud trial of former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort beginning in Virginia Tuesday, but in many ways the future of the Russia probe will very much be on the line as Special Counsel Robert Mueller works to secure a conviction.
Getting a guilty verdict in the bulk of the 18 counts against Manafort will impact everything from the politics of the investigation to the leverage prosecutors have over future witnesses and even the legal strategy they're able to execute. Politico's Darren Samuelsohn writes:
“The din of the verdict will be deafening,” said Mark Corallo, a former spokesman for both Trump’s legal team and the George W. Bush Justice Department.
“If Manafort is acquitted it’ll be the pro-Trump side blasting the special counsel, blasting the whole process, urging for the dismissal of the office of special counsel and shutting down the investigation and all of that.”
But if Mueller delivers a lifetime's worth of sentencing for Manafort, the notion that the entire probe is a “witch hunt” will crumble under the weight of the conviction. That will not only give Democrats on the Hill ammunition to continue defending the probe, it will also provide Mueller's team with considerable legal benefits.
Mueller could potentially use the guilty verdict to press Manafort for more information in exchange for a lighter sentence. Or perhaps after the Virginia proceeding wraps up in several weeks, Manafort could cut a deal in his D.C. trial in September. Such a verdict would also make other potential witnesses more pliable as they ponder suffering a similar fate to Manafort’s.
Finally, there’s the issue of the first Manafort trial coming to a close right around Labor Day, when America comes back from summer vacation and begins to tune into the closing months of the midterm election. Just imagine the escalation in Trump’s already inane tweeting if Manafort suffers a major legal blow in Virginia only to resume his defense weeks later in D.C.
While Mueller has already racked up five guilty pleas in his investigation, Manafort's case is the first to go to trial. Last October, Mueller chose to publicly release the charges against Manafort and his business partner Rick Gates before publicizing any others. Even then, most former federal prosecutors considered it a strong case that relied little on testimony and heavily on an incontrovertible paper trail. But since that time, Gates flipped and became a cooperating witness, bolstering the case against Manafort even more.
Despite all that's on the line, the proceeding will be covered more like an old-school trial since no electronic devices, recorders, or cameras are allowed in the court room. But stay tuned—one way or the other the outcome of Manafort’s trial will have major implications for Trump’s presidency, the midterm elections, and possibly even the direction of the country.