On Saturday, Hawaii Gov. David Ige defeated Rep. Colleen Hanabusa 50-43 in the Democratic primary. Ige will be the heavy favorite against state House GOP Leader Andria Tupola in this very blue state, and Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Safe Democratic.
Ige's primary win looked very unlikely even just a few months ago. While he won the nomination in 2014 by unseating incumbent Neil Abercrombie
in a 67-31 landslide, most of Ige's support back then came from powerful people and groups that Abercrombie had alienated. Many of those state power players had little loyalty to Ige himself once he got into office, and they were more interested in Hanabusa, a protégé of the late Sen. Daniel Inouye. It didn't help that Ige had trouble securing many high-profile accomplishments and raising money.
Hanabusa, who had lost an excruciatingly close 2014 Democratic primary to appointed Sen. Brian Schatz, entered the race in September arguing that Ige wasn't the decisive leader Hawaii needed. Hanabusa picked up the support of a number of powerful unions and politicians, including fellow Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and legislative leaders. In January, the governor hit a low point when a false ballistic missile alert went out, and Ige explained that one of the reasons it took 38 minutes to inform the public the warning was in error was because he had forgotten his Twitter password. In March, a Mason-Dixon poll showed Hanabusa demolishing Ige 47-27.
However, Ige recovered from his low point. Intense flooding in Kauai in April and the ongoing Kilauea volcano eruption both gave Ige the chance to demonstrate the decisive leadership that Hanabusa insisted he lacked. It also didn't help the congresswoman that her duties in Washington kept her thousands of miles away from the state for much of the campaign, a problem Ige did not have. The governor also still had some prominent supporters in his corner, including the influential Hawaii State Teachers Association and Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell.
In July, two different polls showed Ige taking the lead. Hanabusa's allies at super PACs funded by the Hawaii Council of Carpenters and prominent and controversial contractor Dennis Mitsunaga spent heavily on commercials in the final weeks of the contest faulting Ige over his handling of the false ballistic missile crisis, but it wasn't enough to change the direction of the contest.