The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● HI-Gov: On Saturday, Hawaii Gov. David Ige defeated Rep. Colleen Hanabusa 51-44 in the Democratic primary. Ige will be the heavy favorite against state House GOP Leader Andria Tupola in this very blue state, and Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Safe Democratic.
Campaign Action
Ige's primary win looked very unlikely even just a few months ago. While he won the nomination in 2014 by unseating incumbent Neil Abercrombie in a 67-31 landslide, most of Ige's support back then came from powerful people and groups that Abercrombie had alienated. Many of those state power players had little loyalty to Ige himself once he got into office, and they were more interested in Hanabusa, a protégé of the late Sen. Daniel Inouye. Ige was further hurt by his difficulty in securing high-profile accomplishments and in raising money.
Hanabusa, who had lost an excruciatingly close 2014 Democratic primary to appointed Sen. Brian Schatz, entered the race in September arguing that Ige wasn't the decisive leader Hawaii needed. Hanabusa picked up the support of a number of powerful unions and politicians, including fellow Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and legislative leaders. In January, the governor hit a low point when a false ballistic missile alert went out, and Ige explained that one of the reasons it took 38 minutes to inform the public the warning was in error was because he had forgotten his Twitter password. In March, a Mason-Dixon poll showed Hanabusa demolishing Ige 47-27.
However, Ige recovered from his low point. Intense flooding in Kauai in April and the ongoing Kilauea volcano eruption both gave Ige the chance to demonstrate the decisive leadership that Hanabusa insisted he lacked. It also didn't help the congresswoman that her duties in Washington kept her thousands of miles away from the state for much of the campaign, a problem Ige did not have. The governor also still had some prominent supporters in his corner, including the influential Hawaii State Teachers Association and Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell.
In July, two different polls showed Ige taking the lead. Hanabusa's allies at super PACs funded by the Hawaii Council of Carpenters and prominent and controversial contractor Dennis Mitsunaga spent heavily on commercials in the final weeks of the contest faulting Ige over his handling of the false ballistic missile crisis, but it wasn't enough to change the direction of the contest.
Senate
● IN-Sen: Despite Republican Mike Braun's attempts to portray his business empire as entirely American and attack Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly on the issue of outsourcing jobs, another Associated Press report once again shows Braun is throwing rocks despite living in a figurative glass house. Indeed, the AP recently revealed that some of Braun's own line of auto parts and tools is made in China, and his business isn't just selling Chinese-made parts his company bought from other U.S. manufacturers like he previously tried to claim as a defense from outsourcing charges in another AP story earlier this year.
Outsourcing and the racist dog-whistle undertones related to it have played a central role in TV ads so far this cycle, and Braun has tried to gain traction against Donnelly over the latter's family business outsourcing labor to Mexico, even going so far as labeling him "Mexico Joe" in a recent ad that painted Donnelly's face with the tricolors of the Mexican flag. But while Donnelly himself had no role in running the family business for decades, these AP reports paint Braun's all-American businessman pitch in a very hypocritical light.
● NV-Sen: Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen has launched a response ad to counter a recent NRSC attack on her business career, which is backed by a seven-figure buy. Rosen's commercial bemoans "spineless attacks" from GOP Sen. Dean Heller as an orange wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tube man is shown blowing in the wind. Without repeating his attacks, Rosen points to Nevada journalists who called out Heller for having "twisted the truth" and having pushed "phony info." By contrast, she highlights her humble origins and successful career building an "independent consulting business."
● TN-Sen: Majority Forward, which is an affiliate of the Democratic group Senate Majority PAC, has launched a $1.3 million TV ad buy this month for spots supporting Democrat Phil Bredesen. Their ad praises his record as a former governor who pulled Tennessee out of financial disaster and "balanced eight budgets" without raising sales taxes. They tout how major companies like auto manufacturers moved to Tennessee during his tenure and provided good jobs.
Meanwhile, the conservative Senate Leadership Fund is going up with its own $1.3 million TV ad buy this month on behalf of Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn. Their commercial argues she is tenacious and touts her endorsement from Trump.
● TX-Sen: The super PAC Texans Are, which is supporting GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, has reserved $750,000 for TV ad time in September.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: The Democratic firm Tremont Public Advisors is out with a very rare poll of Tuesday's GOP primary. The online survey gives Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, who has the state party endorsement, a 32-22 lead over wealthy businessman Bob Stefanowski.
Hedge fund manager David Stemerman, who has poured around $13 million of his own money into his run, takes 17, while former Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst and businessman Steve Obsitnik are at 16 and 11, respectively. The only other poll we've seen all summer was a mid-July Tremont poll that had Boughton leading Stefanowski 34-20.
● GA-Gov: The RGA has debuted another TV ad that attacks Democrat Stacey Abrams over her tax issues. Just like the last one, this latest spot hits Abrams for earning $1 million over the last five years yet not paying $54,000 in taxes on time, even though she loaned her campaign $50,000. They claim she wants to raise taxes and is "fiscally irresponsible."
However, as Abrams noted in a response ad by the state Democratic Party where she speaks directly to the camera, she had to care for her elderly parents at the time. Abrams argues she had to choose between "delaying tax payments and delaying my dad's cancer treatment." She pivots to tout her plan to ensure more Georgians have access to both affordable health care and good-paying jobs so that people won't be forced into the same position she was.
● MN-Gov: State Attorney General Lori Swanson has been hit with a spate of negative stories just ahead of Tuesday's Democratic primary after a former employee, D'Andre Norman, alleged that she directed her office staff to engage in political activities on government time. Norman says that, though he was originally hired to work in the attorney general's consumer services division, the majority of his duties were political, including recommending the firing of staff "who were not showing proper political allegience to Swanson."
Swanson, who has led in limited polling, has denied all the charges, but according to Norman, her office went one further: He says that Swanson's staff at the attorney general's office went on the offensive and improperly distributed information about his criminal record, which had been expunged. Given that Swanson's been accused of using official staff for political purposes, having a government employee serve as her attack dog seems like an extraordinarily wrong-headed move. Norman is seeking a restraining order against Swanson, who's now ensured that this story will get even more play in the final days of the race.
House
● AZ-02: We have a copy of EMILY's List's TV spot against former state Rep. Matt Heinz, which is running for $240,000. They accuse Heinz of siding with the GOP to cut access to healthcare and voting "with the NRA to keep dangerous, high capacity magazines in Arizona." Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who is the other main candidate in the Aug. 28 Democratic primary, recently went up with an ad attacking Heinz along similar lines.
● CA-39: Democrat Gil Cisneros is out with a survey from Tulchin Research that gives him a hefty 53-42 lead over Republican Young Kim. The only other poll we've seen here was a DCCC poll taken shortly after the early June top-two primary that had Kim ahead 45-43.
Not citing any specific sources, National Journal’s Hotline says that "private GOP polling shows a closer race, with Kim in the lead." If that were really the case, though, then why wouldn't Republicans release actual data to counter Cisneros' survey?
● FL-06: American Patriots PAC, a group set up to help businessman and retired Green Beret Michael Waltz, has launched a $267,000 ad buy against fellow businessman John Ward ahead of the Aug. 28 GOP primary.
● FL-15: We have two new polls of the Aug. 28 GOP primary for this open central Florida seat that show two very different results. A late July SurveyUSA poll for Spectrum News Florida has state Rep. Ross Spano narrowly leading former state Rep. Neil Combee 26-20, with the other three candidates each taking between 6 and 7 percent.
However, a group called Strategic Government Consulting is out with a survey taken Tuesday and Wednesday that had Combee leading Spano 31-17, with the rest of the field taking between 3 and 4 percent. Strategic Government Consulting did not identify a client, though oddly, Spano's congressional campaign hired them to poll for him a few months ago. The only other poll we've seen in recent months was an early July St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics that had Spano up 32-20.
Democrats are hoping to put this open seat, which moved from 52-47 Romney to 53-43 Trump, into play, and SurveyUSA took a look at Team Blue's primary. They give attorney Kristen Carlson, a former general counsel for the Florida Department of Citrus, the lead with 31 percent. Navy veteran Andrew Learned and Coast Guard veteran Ray Pena, who has very little money, each take 12.
● FL-27: State Rep. David Richardson is out with a survey of the Aug. 28 Democratic primary from Frederick Polls that gives former University of Miami president Donna Shalala a 32-20 lead over him, while former journalist Matt Haggman is a distant third with just 9. An unreleased June poll had Shalala in first with 29 while Richardson and Haggman took 11 and 3 percent, respectively. A few days ago, Haggman released survey from RABA Research that had Shalala in first with a similar 26 percent, but Haggman and Richardson deadlocked in second with 16 and 15 percent, respectively.
● KY-06: Democrat Amy McGrath is up with a response ad after GOP Rep. Andy Barr and the Congressional Leadership Fund ran commercials arguing she'd be a lackey of the Democratic House leadership, and it's a good one.
McGrath, who is shown standing next to a Marine jet, tells the audience they've probably seen "the inevitable attack ads that try to say I'm not like you. That I'll go to Washington and vote the party line." She then addresses Barr and asks, "Seriously, is that all you got? That's exactly what you've done 98 percent of the time." McGrath concludes that "after 89 combat missions, there's nothing a party leader could say that could force me to do anything," and challenges Barr, "How 'bout you?"
● ME-02: GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin notably is using his first TV spot of the campaign to go after Democrat Jared Golden, and he tries to argue that it's Golden who is putting Medicare at risk. The narrator insists that Golden is a radical whose "healthcare scheme" will lead to "massive costs, faltering Medicare while its future is in doubt, over thirty-two trillion dollars in higher costs, and enormous job killing tax increases to pay for it."
That scary $32 trillion figure comes from a study from the Mercatus Center, a libertarian-leaning group at George Mason University, which estimated that federal spending would increase by this amount over 10 years if Bernie Sanders' Medicare for all bill were implemented (the left-leaning Urban Institute had the same figure in 2016). However, the group also estimated that overall health care spending would slightly decrease over that period, with plenty of savings going to the consumer. Golden himself says he supports an incremental expansion of Medicare to older workers close to retirement age.
However, this Poliquin ad does demonstrate the danger that so many Democrats will face no matter what their views on how to expand Medicare actually are. The GOP can and will shout that that Democrats support a scary $32 trillion plan that will endanger seniors in the hopes of changing the conversation away from Republicans' attempts to undermine Obamacare. It will be up to Democrats to find a good way to counter these commercials and focus on the actual bills that Republicans like Poliquin have already voted for that have put people at risk.
● MI-01: Retired Marine Lt. Col. Matt Morgan's write-in campaign to win the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Rep. Jack Bergman has very much succeeded. Morgan needed at least 3,570 valid write-in votes across the district on Tuesday, and Marquette County has already verified that he got 4,643 votes there alone. Preliminary numbers say that 32,000 write-in votes were cast in the Democratic primary across the district, and with no one else running a serious campaign, it's safe to say that the vast majority went to Morgan.
Morgan got thrown off the ballot because he put a P.O. box rather than his home address at the top of his petitions, which the state's Bureau of Elections said rendered them unacceptable. Luckily, no one else filed for the primary, so all he needed to do was collect enough valid write-in votes to advance. State law required Morgan's write-in campaign to get at least 5 percent of the total vote cast in the primaries for governor in this district, which he more than accomplished.
The Democrat will be in for a tough campaign against Bergman, himself a retired Marine general, in a northern Michigan seat that went from 54-45 Romney to 58-37 Trump. This area, which includes the Upper Peninsula and much of the northern part of the Lower Peninsula, is ancestrally Democratic turf, but outside groups haven't reserved any TV time here. However, Morgan has been a good fundraiser, and he's raised close to $700,000 through mid-July. Bergman held a $466,000 to $289,000 cash-on-hand edge on July 18, which is hardly an insurmountable financial advantage. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Likely Republican.
● NC-09: Media Matters has unearthed more comments that Republican nominee Mark Harris made expressing reactionary views on social issues. Back in 2015, Harris had lamented the supposed "moral decay" of America in recent years, saying, "We have watched in one generation where homosexuality was once criminalized to now we see the criminalization of Christianity." It was recently disclosed that Harris believes homosexuality is a "choice," and he was already a well-known leader of the successful 2012 push to ban same-sex marriage in North Carolina's state constitution.
● NY-18, NY-AG: A state lower court judge has ruled that Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney can stay on the ballot for both his general election bid for his House seat and his September primary campaign for attorney general, at least for now. Since the congressional primaries already took place in June, the ruling would give Maloney a safety net to fall back on if he loses the primary for attorney general.
● NY-22, KS-02, KY-06: We now know the size of the recent ad buys that the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC made for ads we’ve recently seen: $1 million to oppose Democrat Anthony Brindisi in NY-22; $885,000 to attack Democrat Paul Davis in KS-02; and $830,000 to hit Democrat Amy McGrath in KY-06.
● NY-27: Days after he was arrested for insider trading, GOP Rep. Chris Collins announced Saturday that he would suspend his re-election campaign, though he would serve out the rest of his term. However, it is very difficult to get off the ballot in New York, and its not yet clear how, or even if, New York Republicans will be able to swap Collins out for a new nominee. We'll have more about this situation in a future Digest.
● House: The DCCC has added four more Democrats to its Red-to-Blue list, which signals to donors who the top tier of Democratic candidates in potentially winnable races are.
CA-04: Jessica Morse
KS-03: Sharice Davids
MI-11: Haley Stevens
WA-03: Carolyn Long
Mayoral
● Phoenix, AZ Mayor: Democrat Greg Stanton stepped down as mayor in late May to run for Arizona's 9th Congressional District, something he was required to do under the state's resign-to-run law. There will be a nonpartisan special election for the final year of Stanton's term as head of America's fifth-largest city on Nov. 6, and if no one takes a majority, there would be a runoff on March 12. (Yes, that's one very long runoff campaign.) Whoever wins will be up for a full four-year term in 2019.
Several candidates ended up filing, but only the two Democrats look like they're running credible campaigns. Kate Gallego and Daniel Valenzuela, who both stepped down from the city council to run for mayor, have each been strong fundraisers.
Valenzuela, who is backed by three former mayors, reported raising $850,000 through July, which his campaign said was a record for the most money ever brought in by a candidate for mayor in city history. But Gallego, who is the former wife of local Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, soon announced she had brought in $1 million (both her and Valenzuela's fundraising totals include money transferred from their city council campaigns), and she had a $924,000 to $600,000 cash-on-hand lead. Gallego also picked up an endorsement from EMILY's List on Thursday.
A few other candidates are also in, but none of them is well-funded. The candidate with the third-most money in the bank at the end of June was Republican Moses Sanchez, a marketing director who raised $102,000 and had $65,000 to spend.
Primary Recap
● HI-01: Former Rep. Ed Case defeated Lt. Gov. Doug Chin 40-26 in the Democratic primary for this safely blue Honolulu seat, with state Sen. Donna Mercado Kim taking 18 percent and no other candidates breaking double digits.
Case, who had represented the 2nd District from 2002 until he unsuccessfully challenged then-Sen. Dan Akaka from the right in the 2006 primary, only entered the crowded contest to succeed Colleen Hanabusa in June. But Case, who had lost a 2010 special election for this seat as well as the 2012 Senate primary, brought with him plenty of name recognition. Case had alienated powerful members of the state Democratic establishment during his last few campaigns, but they didn't take up arms against him this time.
Case spent his last stint in D.C. as a member of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition and as a supporter of the war in Iraq, and he doesn't seem to have changed much since then. The former congressman remains a self-described "moderate mainstream Democrat," and he emphasized working across party lines during this campaign.
● HI-02: Rep. Tulsi Gabbard pulled off an easy 84-12 win over underfunded environmental scientist Sherry Campagna in the Democratic primary for this safely blue state. While Gabbard has alienated plenty of national Democrats for cozying up to murderous Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and for her long refusal to criticize Trump, few voters at home were upset enough to fire her.
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