After a month long lay off, primary season is back fully underway and my home state of Michigan is up tomorrow and I’m here to break it down. There are competitive senate, gubernatorial, house, and state-level primaries, and so I intend to cover them all, so let’s jump right in:
GOP Senate Primary
Candidates: John James (businessman, veteran), Sandy Pensler (businessman)
Who’s going to win?: Probably James
This had been one of the closest statewide primaries for a major office nomination of this cycle, with the polls showing a tight battle between a pair of no name businessmen, Sandy Pensler and John James. The victor is likely to get slaughtered in the general election by Incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) according to all the polls, but this primary itself had some intrigue due to how close the polls had been. 5 of the last 6 polls have all shown it within single digits (2 with Pensler leading, 2 with James leading, 1 tied) and high undecideds. However, the most recent poll had James surging ahead to a 44-30 lead and combined with President Trump’s endorsement of James, he enters Election Day as the favorite. James is also more well liked within the conservative base, appearing on Fox News a handful of times (probably how Trump found out about him), so you’d think he has the edge, but we can’t be totally sure.
Democratic Governor Primary
Candidates: Gretchen Whitmer (former State Senate Minority Leader), Shri Thanedar (businessman), Abdul El-Sayed (doctor)
Who’s going to win?: Probably Whitmer
Here’s the main event, a Democratic primary that has turned into another left base vs. establishment battle, even if the national media hasn’t latched onto it the way they have other races. Gretchen Whitmer is the establishment favorite, having served in the legislature when it expanded Medicaid and she’s gotten the endorsement of just about every major player in Michigan Democratic politics, from current Reps. like Debbie Dingell to former pols like Jim Blanchard and Carl Levin to Mayor of Detroit Mike Duggan, as well as just about every union, including the UAW, AFL-CIO, and the Teamsters.
The left candidate is Abdul El-Sayed, a doctor who worked in the City of Detroit giving out free eyeglasses to low-income children. El-Sayed is running on an unbashedly progressive platform, essentially taking all of Bernie Sanders’s proposals from 2016 and planning to implement them at the state level, including $15/hr minimum wage, a massive infrastructure package, free college, and most of all, an ambitious state-level single payer health care system titled “MichCare”. This has won him the support of national progressives like Bernie Sanders, who campaigned for him this past weekend, as well as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Shaun King, Nina Turner, and Ro Khanna, along with groups like Justice Democrats and Our Revolution.
The wildcard in the race is Shri Thanedar, who is trying to be a Democratic Donald Trump, in that he’s a wealthy businessman with a shady (morally bankrupt) business past and um…. unique hair. Thanedar has self-funded his campaigns millions, running ads since the Super Bowl, long before the other candidates were on the airwaves. He has exactly 0 endorsements according to the wiki page of this race, and despite also running on a very leftist platform, his progressive credentials have been called into question after news he hired consultants last year and considered running as a Republican and was spotted at a Marco Rubio rally in 2016. I’m not sure what constituency his base his and who his actual supporters are, but he’s been doing okay in the polls, probably from low-information voters who recognize his name from TV.
Speaking of polls, they seem to indicate that Whitmer is going to win. She’s led every single poll taken in the last two months and by an average of 16 points. Now, primary polling doesn’t have a great track record, so there’s still some uncertainty, but she’s the odds-on favorite. Perhaps what I’m most interested by is where El-Sayed’s areas of strength are. I suspect he will do well in Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) and Ingham County (Lansing/EL), since he’s quite popular on college campuses. What I’m watching is how he does in Genesee County (Flint) and Wayne County (Detroit), since those are two heavily African-American areas and Bernie Sanders did very poorly with black voters in 2016. In the 2016 Michigan Democratic Primary, which Sanders won in a huge upset, Bernie won 73 of the 83 counties in Michigan, yet failed to get 40% in Wayne County, and also lost Genesee County. El-Sayed worked in the City of Detroit, so perhaps his progressivism will have more resonance there than Sanders’s did? I’m not sure, but it’s something to watch when we contemplate the politics of race and leftism/socialism.
GOP Governor Primary
Candidates: Bill Schuette (AG), Brian Calley (Lt. Gov), Patrick Colbeck (State Senator), Jim Hines (doctor)
Who’s going to win?: Probably Schuette
While not the main event, there’s certainly intrigue here, as there’s been a battle within the Michigan GOP’s power-brokers. Bill Schuette, the AG of Michigan, has been around forever, having been in the Governor’s cabinet, the US House, the State Senate, and now the Attorney General over the course of his career. He’s been running for office for over 3 decades in Michigan and defines the term “career politician”, thus being about as much of a known quantity as you can possibly be. Schuette got the endorsement of Trump early on in the cycle and he’s made that very clear in his ads, hugging the President as much as possible. The other pillar of power is Rick Snyder, the current Governor, who Schuette had a falling out with years ago, and who endorsed his running mate from years past, Brian Calley. The problem for Calley as the Snyder-endorsed candidate is that Snyder just isn’t that popular in Michigan, neither with the general electorate, nor the GOP base, who felt he was too moderate, vetoing hardline conservative legislation on a handful of occasions. Between Snyder and Trump, Trump is definitely the more popular figure with the GOP primary electorate, and it’s why Schuette will probably win. He’s led every poll of this race, often by good margins, and so he’s expected to set up a Whitmer vs. Schuette general election. Patrick Colbeck is an arch-conservative legislator who is little known and will probably get around 10%, while Hines is mostly a Some Dude, likely to get around 5%. Neither are real players.
Michigan’s 6th Congressional District — Dem Primary
Candidates: Matt Longjohn (physician), George Franklin (former Kellogg lobbyist), David Benac (professor), Rich Eichholz (businessman)
Who’s going to win?: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This is the seat held by longtime GOP Rep. Fred Upton (R), who is potentially vulnerable in November, but we need some polling to back that up. Democrats ran Paul Clements in 2014 and 2016, who failed to really push Upton at all and they were fortunate for him to not make it on the ballot again in 2018. This leaves the primary between serious contenders Matt Longjohn and George Franklin. Franklin is the fundraising leader and thus probably the favorite between the two, but it’s been pretty close in terms of cash and we have no primary polling. The winner is still a long shot against a 25 year incumbent, but it is worth keeping an eye out for.
Michigan’s 9th Congressional District — Dem Primary
Candidates: Andy Levin (union organizer), Ellen Lipton (ex-State Rep.), Martin Brook (attorney)
Who’s going to win?: Probably Levin
Sandy Levin, brother of longtime US Senator Carl Levin and longtime incumbent of this D+4 Oakland/Macomb County District, is finally retiring from the House at the age of 86. Democrats seem likely to replace him with another Levin, his son Andy. Andy Levin has served in some different roles in Michigan politics as well as being a union organizer for the AFL-CIO and the UAW and he earned the endorsement of the Detroit Free Press leading up to the primary. While the presence of Ellen Lipton, the only woman in the race during the Year of the Woman 2.0 in Democratic primaries, could pull an upset over Levin, the polling we have gives Levin a huge lead. Whether Levin or Lipton win the primary, the Democratic nominee looks likely to be heading to Congress as this district is currently rated Safe D.
Michigan’s 11th Congressional District — Dem Primary
Candidates: Tim Greimel (former State House Minority Leader), Suneel Gupta (businessman), Fayrouz Saad (former Detroit director of immigration affairs), Haley Stevens (worked in Obama admin.), Nancy Skinner (radio/TV commentator)
Who’s going to win?: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This is a key tossup district, the type that could decide the US House majority in November. It’s a heavily gerrymandered Trump +5 district in Oakland County with retiring GOP incumbent Dave Trott. Trott’s retirement slingshotted the seat to the top of the Democratic target list within Michigan and made it a tossup race nationally. The Democratic side is a messy pileup, with a lot of candidates wanting to take on the GOP nominee. While there are 5 candidates in the race, only the first 4 mentioned above are real players. Greimel cites his legislative experience as he, like Whitmer, was a key leader during the Medicaid expansion. However, he’s a pretty bland and generic white dude, and that could hurt him in a primary where you need to be a notable character to stand out from the crowd.
Next is Suneel Gupta, a (decently) young Indian entrepreneur who has self-funded his campaign quite a bit. He’s the brother of Dr. Sanjay Gupta and has been pretty charismatic in his primary ads. According to the Cook Political Report, he’s seen by insiders as one of the two favorites. The other favorite is Haley Stevens, who worked on the auto bailout in the Obama administration, which is obviously a popular thing to have on your resume when you’re running for Congress in suburban Detroit. Her status as a woman could also help her given it’s 2018, but she’s not the only woman in the race, with Fayrouz Saad also a factor. Saad is a Muslim woman who worked in immigration in the City of Detroit, and she seems fine, but perhaps not likely to win the nomination. We have two polls of the race, one with Greimel leading and one with Stevens leading, though Gupta was close behind in both and both polls have over 30% undecided, so there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. The winner likely won’t get above 40% of the vote since it is a very fractured field, and who knows who will win. There doesn’t seem to be a clear cut best option for Dems and there also doesn’t seem to be a worst option.
Michigan’s 11th Congressional District — GOP Primary
Candidates: Kerry Bentivoilo (ex-incumbent), Lena Epstein (businesswoman and 2016 Trump Campaign Chair of Michigan), Klint Kesto (State Rep.), Mike Kowall (State Senator), Rocky Raczkowski (ex-State Rep.)
Who’s going to win?: Probably Epstein
This is the other side of the MI-11 battle, with the GOP looking to nominate someone who can hold the seat with the retiring Dave Trott. Lena Epstein is the favorite, having self-funded a hefty bit of cash to her campaign, and she has touted her Trumpian bonafides, having held a high-up position in the President’s successful campaign in Michigan in 2016. The most recognizable challenger is Kerry “Santa Claus” Bentivolio, who used to represent this seat, serving from 2013-15. Trott primaried him back in 2014 and Bentivolio tried to run in the GE as a write-in candidate and he got 0.6% of the vote. He’s produced maybe my favorite campaign ad of this cycle for being just bonkers. He’s well-known but probably not terribly serious after losing a primary as an incumbent 4 years ago. Kesto, Kowall, and Raczkowski are all state-level candidates who are all pretty indistinguishable from each other and are considered underdogs in the primary. Kowall and Kesto have raised a fair bit of money and have been running ads, while Raczkowski unsuccessfully ran for US Senate a number of years ago, so they all have something going for them. Still, this race seems like it is Epstein’s to lose.
Michigan’s 13th Congressional District — Dem Primary
Candidates: Ian Conyers (State Senator), Rashida Tlaib (ex-State Rep.), Bill Wild (ex-Mayor of Westland), Coleman Young II (State Senator), Brenda Jones (President of Detroit City Council), Shanelle Jackson (ex-State Rep.)
Who’s going to win?: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This district is one of the bluest in the country, with a D+32 PVI (Clinton beat Trump 79-18 and Obama beat Romney 85-14 here) and it’s centered on Downtown Detroit, though it extends outside the city and takes in Westland, Romulus, and parts of Dearborn Heights. It is currently open, being vacated by the resignation of John Conyers, an over 50-year incumbent who got ousted in a #MeToo scandal late last year. Being an open safely Democratic seat, Tuesday’s primary is essentially the general election, with whoever winning being basically guaranteed a ticket to the 116th US Congress. And there’s a lot of folks vying for that ticket. The first two names are a pair of legacy folks, Ian Conyers, a State Senator and John’s great-nephew, and Coleman Young II, a State Senator and the son of notorious former Mayor of Detroit, Coleman Young. CY2 ran for Mayor last fall and got destroyed by incumbent Mike Duggan, so his political skills don’t appear to be as sharp as his old man’s were.
Those two do not appear to be the leaders. The polls we have indicates it will be a battle between Jones, Tlaib, and Wild. Starting with Jones, she is the President of the Detroit City Council, and has decently high name recognition as a result. She is not the fundraising leader, but as a black woman, she fits the demographics of the district the best and she’s led both polls we have, though not by enough to be considered a true favorite. Next is Rashida Tlaib, a Palestinian Muslim woman who has led the fundraising and is considered a progressive favorite, being in favor of $15 minimum wage and Medicare-for-All. She’s neck-and-neck with Wild for the second spot in the polls. Wild is a white man, which could hinder his appeal in a majority-minority district, but his spot as the Mayor of one of the localities in the district definitely helps. There will probably be a geographic disparity of where the votes are coming from, with Jones likely doing best in Detroit, while Wild will do best in Westland and the other (whiter) cities. It’s too hard to tell who’s going to win, as it could feasibly be any of these three.
Some State-level primaries
I’ll run through a few of these very quickly:
10th SD: This is a Macomb seat that is a top Dem pickup opportunity. Republicans are picking between three people (Joseph Bogdan (engineer), Michael Shallal, (intelligence analyst) Michael McDonald (financial advisor)) to see who gets to be the underdog against State Rep. Henry Yanez (D)
12th SD: Another top pickup opportunity, this is an open Oakland County seat. Michael McCready and Jim Tedder are two State Reps. running for the GOP nomination, while Democrats have IT specialist Rosemary Bayer running unopposed. Tedder is seen as more conservative than McCready and is thus probably the weaker general election candidate in a swing district.
24th SD: This is an open Eaton County seat that has become a tossup thanks to Democrat Kelly Rossman-McKinney raising a ton of money. Republicans have a primary between two State Reps., Tom Barrett and Brett Roberts, to see who will represent the party against her.
34th SD: An R+2 Muskegon seat, Republican State Rep. Holly Hughes is seemingly the favorite, given her huge fundraising haul. However, fellow State Rep. Jon Bumstead is a factor and Hughes emptied nearly her entire warchest in the last reporting period and I’m not sure on what, perhaps a sign this might be a closer primary than thought. Democrats also have a primary between non-profit lady Poppy Sias-Hernandez and former State Rep. Coleen Lamonte. Lamonte appears to be the stronger candidate and the favorite for Team Blue’s nod.
40th HD: A vacant Oakland County seat that is maybe the top Democratic pickup opportunity, it has a complex primary on both sides. Democrats have a battle between Nicole Bedi (doctor and activist) and Mari Manoogian (ex-Dingell Staffer), while Republicans have a complex 6-way primary. No matter who gets the D nod, they start out as the favorite in the GE, but we will finally find out who it will be.
41th HD: Another swing Oakland County seat that presents Democrats with a great opportunity, HD-41 is one where Dems know their candidate, Padma Kuppa (Troy Planning Commission member), but Republicans do not. The GOP will be picking between two local folks, Doug Tietz (Oakland County Commish) and Ethan Baker (Troy City Council). Kuppa is the favorite to win the GE and I have this seat as Lean D, but it will be interesting to see who Team Red nominates.