The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● KS-Gov: The Republican Governor's Association reportedly spent weeks urging Donald Trump not to endorse Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach ahead of Tuesday's GOP primary for governor, but Trump tweeted out his support for his longtime ally on Monday afternoon. Kobach had previously led Trump’s now-defunct "Election Integrity" commission that was widely seen as a voter fraud witch hunt designed to provide a pretext for new voter suppression measures.
Campaign Action
The New York Times' Jonathan Martin reports that RGA officials believe that the far-right Kobach, who was humiliated in court earlier this year when his long-standing claims of widespread voter fraud collapsed under scrutiny, would be a considerably weaker general election candidate than the more-temperate Gov. Jeff Colyer, and they pointed to private polls showing that the secretary of state is unpopular with the general electorate.
Trump's own aides even tried to keep him from tweeting out his support, but they dreaded that they couldn't stop him during his unsupervised weekend at his New Jersey gold resort. Martin adds that White House advisors even told Trump Monday morning that Kobach could drag House Republican candidates down in Kansas' 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts, but he endorsed him hours later anyway.
Even before Trump weighed in, this looked like Kobach's primary to lose. The secretary of state released a poll last week showing him leading Colyer 34-25, and Colyer has been acting like he thinks he's the underdog. Remington Research recently unveiled a poll giving Colyer a narrow 34-32 lead over Kobach, with 2006 nominee Jim Barnett and state Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer at 14 and 9 percent, respectively. (As we've written before, Remington's parent company is Axiom Strategies, where one of whose senior vice presidents has consulted for Colyer's campaign.)
However, even if Colyer did go into Monday with a narrow lead, he may have a very tough time holding it now that Trump has sided against him.
Primary Day
● Election Day: O'Connor, Where Art Thou?: Tuesday brings us another exciting night, with key contests to watch in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Washington. We have a ton of exciting contests to watch, and we've put together our preview.
The main event will be the special election in Ohio's 12th Congressional District, where Democrat Danny O'Connor and Republican Troy Balderson are duking it out for a 53-42 Trump seat in the Columbus area. David Jarman has put together a county benchmarks post you'll want to have bookmarked for Tuesday that will give us an idea if O'Connor is getting enough support out of each county he'll need to turn Balderson into a man of constant sorrow.
We also have competitive primaries for governor to watch in Kansas and Michigan, a ballot measure in Missouri to repeal an anti-labor "right-to-work" law, and plenty of House contests in safe and swing seats alike. The first polls close at 7:30 PM ET in Ohio's 12th, and we'll start our liveblog then at Daily Kos Elections. You can also follow us on Twitter, where we'll be live-tweeting the results. And check out our calendar for a look at primary nights to come.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: DefendArizona, which is aligned with the GOP establishment and had previously reserved $5 million on behalf of GOP Rep. Martha McSally for the general election, is now making a $940,000 TV ad buy against former state Sen. Kelli Ward ahead of the Aug. 28 Republican primary. Their spot tries to link Ward to so-called "sanctuary cities" by claiming she sponsored a bill that would "interfere with Arizona police fighting terrorism" by restricting their ability to work with the NSA.
● FL-Sen: A few weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Times did a story highlighting how GOP Gov. Rick Scott signed a 2012 bill that repealed a law that had required septic tanks to be inspected every five years in order to prevent pollution. That bill doesn't look like such a good idea now that Florida going through another toxic algae bloom crisis, so in classic Rick Scott form, the governor going up with an ad to blame the problem on Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson before it can be pinned on him.
● NM-Sen: Last week, state Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, who was elected in 2014 as a Republican, dropped out of this year's race against Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich after winning the Libertarian Party nomination in June, and his decision could pave the way for his newfound party to nominate its 2016 and 2012 presidential standard-bearer: Former Gov. Gary Johnson. The Libertarians offered Johnson the nomination on Saturday, and he has two weeks to make a choice of whether to run. Johnson said his odds of victory will factor into whether he will jump in.
Having previously been elected as a Republican governor in 1994 and 1998, Johnson took a record 9 percent of the vote in New Mexico as the Libertarian presidential nominee in 2016, and he would almost certainly be the best candidate the party could put forward for Senate. Making his candidacy more viable, Republican nominee Mick Rich, who owns a construction company, is an unheralded candidate with little name recognition. Johnson could considerably eat into Rich's support, especially if Republican voters become convinced that the much better known Johnson has the best chance to beat Heinrich in November.
However, it would take a whole lot to go right for the Libertarians to win their first-ever election to Congress or even statewide office. Johnson would be counting on disaffected Republicans and Democrats to eke out a plurality, but Heinrich has done nothing to alienate swing voters in a blue-leaning state in a year where Democrats have a strong wind at their backs. While Johnson's entry into the race would assuredly make things far more interesting than they have been, it remains to be seen whether he even stands a shot at coming close to beating Heinrich, let alone actually doing so in a contest that Daily Kos Elections rates as Safe Democratic.
● TX-Sen: GOP Sen. Ted Cruz has launched his first TV ads on Friday (here and here) that attack Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke ahead of this fall's general election. The first spot touts Cruz's efforts to force those receiving unemployment benefits to undergo drug testing, and it blasts O'Rourke for supposedly considering "legalizing all narcotics, including heroin." However, as O'Rourke noted, he was not actually advocating for legalizing narcotics like opioids, and instead described the city council resolution Cruz had cited as being an unartfully written amendment focused largely on reforming the laws regarding marijuana (which isn't actually a narcotic); O'Rourke has long favored legalizing marijuana.
The second ad labels O'Rourke as an extremist for being open to the idea of abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement and saying he would vote to impeach Trump. The ad also reuses the attack that he supposedly wanted to legalize all narcotics. Finally, the commercial contends that O'Rourke is even more liberal than Nancy Pelosi, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren, and it closes with the tagline of "too reckless for Texas."
However, Cruz's decision to go negative on O'Rourke isn't without its own risks, and not just for the potential to backfire among viewers who disdain negative ads. Just over the course of the weekend since the attack ads first aired, O'Rourke announced that his campaign had seen a surge in donations that brought in a hefty $1.3 million. While Cruz is attempting to define O'Rourke before the Democrat can define himself, O'Rourke certainly won't be lacking for resources to get his own message out in this expensive state.
● WI-Sen: Republican Rep. Sean Duffy stars in the latest TV ad for state Sen. Leah Vukmir, who has the support of much of the state party establishment ahead of next week's primary. Duffy calls the attacks against her "fake news" and says she'll be a strong ally of Trump.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: Former Rep. Gwen Graham has released a poll of this month's Democratic primary from Anzalone Liszt Grove, which finds her with a commanding advantage ahead of Election Day. The survey gives Graham a 33-17 lead over former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, while billionaire developer Jeff Greene takes 13 and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum earns 10. A previously unreleased July survey from ALG had Graham up just 21-17 over Levine, but Graham has consistently led every publicly available poll for the last several weeks.
Meanwhile, Levine has released additional TV ads that focus on gun safety (here and here). The ads feature gun-safety activist Fred Guttenberg and two other parents whose children were murdered in the Parkland mass school shooting earlier this year, and they praise Levine for fighting for measures that will keep children safe from gun violence.
● OH-Gov: Newly released fundraising reports covering the period since mid-June show Democrat Richard Cordray narrowing the money gap between him and Republican Mike DeWine. Cordray actually outraised DeWine by $2.7 million to $2.4 million, but DeWine loaned himself $1 million last month.
Thanks to DeWine gaining access to his running mate Jon Husted's $4 million war chest when the latter dropped his own gubernatorial bid before the primary, DeWine still has a sizable cash-on-hand advantage of $9.6 million to $5.3 million. However, that's a smaller imbalance than the previous June reports.
House
● AZ-02: Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is going up with her first negative spot against former state Rep. Matt Heinz three weeks ahead of the Democratic primary.
The narrator declares that Heinz was the one Democrat who voted for a GOP health plan that "gutted healthcare for seniors, cut childcare for low-income families, and slashed healthcare for veterans." The spot then accuses Heinz of siding with the NRA and voting against a ban of high-capacity magazines even after the 2011 shooting in Tucson. Heinz has been running commercials featuring 2010 footage of Kirkpatrick bragging about her A-rating with the NRA.
● CA-10: The DCCC is out with a Garin-Hart-Yang poll from the start of July that shows Democrat Josh Harder tied 48-48 with Republican Rep. Jeff Denham. This is the first poll we've seen of this contest since Harder emerged from the June top-two primary.
● FL-17: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed state Rep. Julio Gonzalez ahead of the Aug. 28 GOP primary for this safely red seat. This sets up yet another primary proxy battle between the establishment-aligned Chamber and the radical anti-tax Club for Growth, which is supporting state Sen. Greg Steube.
● KY-06: GOP Rep. Andy Barr is using his first TV ad to attack Democrat Amy McGrath for being a feminist … yes, really. The spot begins with a clip of McGrath being asked at event if she's a feminist and replying, "Hell yeah, I'm a feminist!"
The spot then goes into more conventional GOP ad territory and features clips of McGrath calling herself a progressive and pro-choice, saying she supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and calling a border wall with Mexico "absolutely stupid." It concludes with the ad once again reminding viewers that, in addition to being a progressive and "pro-abortion," McGrath is a feminist.
● KS-02: Kansans Can Do Anything has mostly been running positive ads promoting Army veteran Steve Watkins (it'll shock you to learn the super PAC is funded by the candidate's dad) ahead of Tuesday's GOP primary, but they recently took aim at another candidate for the first time. The group went up with a spot against state Sen. Caryn Tyson arguing that she voted to raise sales taxes in 2015, a claim she dismissed as an outright lie.
Watkins, who has self-funded most of his campaign, and his allies have dramatically outspent the rest of the field, but he hasn't made too many friends on the ground. The Associated Press' John Hanna writes that 40 local party leaders signed a letter taking issue with Watkins over his voting history, or lack of it. While Watkins has been running as a proud Trump ally, he's admitted that he didn't vote in 2016 when Trump was on the ballot. Watkins had never even voted in Kansas at all until the next year, when he cast a ballot in a nonpartisan municipal race.
The other candidates are also very much acting like Watkins is their main opponent. State Sen. Steve Fitzgerald even conceded last week that Watkins, whom he called "a charlatan, a fraud and an opportunist," is probably leading. Tyson and fellow state Sen. Dennis Pyle have also posted audio of Watkins calling himself a "pro-choice Christian," something he's dismissed as a "verbal gaffe."
● KS-03: On behalf of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which is supporting attorney Brent Welder, PPP is out with the first and only poll we've seen heading into Tuesday's Democratic primary. They give Welder a 35-21 lead over attorney Sharice Davids, with teacher Tom Niermann at 15.
● KS-04: Change Research (D) for James Thompson: Ron Estes (R-inc): 42, Thompson (D): 38
● MI-11: Even though wealthy businesswoman Lena Epstein has a crowded GOP primary ahead of her on Tuesday, she's still taking the time to meddle in the Democratic contest. Epstein released a spot in the final days of the contest attacking Democratic state Rep. Tim Greimel that ostensibly attacked him as "blindly anti-Trump" and "too liberal," a message is quite likely to endear him to Democratic primary voters.
Meanwhile, Haley Stevens, a former chief of staff to Barack Obama's Auto Task Force and one of Greimel's Democratic primary rivals, unveiled an endorsement from Hillary Clinton on Sunday.
● NY-22: Democrat Anthony Brindisi recently went up with a TV spot tying GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney to Spectrum Cable, which he accused of jacking up rates. Brindisi's ad did not amuse Spectrum, which refused to air it. The Democrat accused them of censoring him, while the company simply said the spot "did not meet our criteria."
Legislative
● Special Elections: We have another special election Tuesday, and let's just say it's not exactly for all the marbles. Johnny Longtorso explains:
California SD-32: This is an open Democratic seat in southeastern Los Angeles County. Tony Mendoza resigned due to allegations of sexual misconduct. The candidates are Democrat Vanessa Delgado, who is mayor of Montebello, and Republican Rita Topalian, a lawyer who has twice run for the Assembly. This seat went 67-28 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 64-34 for Barack Obama in 2012.
If Delgado wins, she would immediately become a lame duck, as she lost out in the top-two primary for the general election to Topalian and fellow Democrat Bob Archuleta. Indeed, Delgado is considering declining to serve the partial term if she wins, as it would require her to resign her mayorship.
Ad Roundup
