Thursday brings us the last primary of 2018, though it’s actually the second primary of the year for New Yorkers, who already chose nominess in federal races back in June. This week’s elections are only for state and local office, a unique and unfortunate state of affairs that has a complicated origin but a simple solution. (Republicans in the legislature, however, have refused to sign off on Democratic proposals to consolidate the two.) The primary was also bumped to Thursday because Tuesday, when it normally would have been held, coincided with both 9/11 and Rosh Hashanah.
Polls close at 9 PM ET, and our guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below. We also invite you to join us at Daily Kos Elections that night for our liveblog starting when polls close, and you can follow our coverage on Twitter as well.
● NY-Gov (D): Hoping to ride a wave of progressive discontent with the way New York has been governed the last eight years, actress and activist Cynthia Nixon launched a challenge to Gov. Andrew Cuomo in March and skillfully used her celebrity to earn media attention and pressure Cuomo from the left. But while the " Cynthia effect" did succeed in pushing Cuomo to publicly adopt more liberal policy positions, it never helped Nixon get close in the polls.
In part, that was because Nixon's grassroots fundraising was no match for Cuomo's massive, corporate-financed war chest: During a recent-three week period, the governor outspent his opponent $8.5 million to $450,000 and was a constant presence on TV. Nixon only went on the air two days before the Democratic primary, and the last public survey, conducted by Siena just a week ago, found Cuomo ahead 63-22. The winner will take on Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro in November. We rate the general election Safe Democratic.
● NY-AG (D): Eric Schneiderman's resignation in May in the wake of allegations that he'd sexually assaulted multiple women created an unexpected open race for attorney general, a powerful post that Schneiderman used to harry Donald Trump and which any Democratic successor of his will use to the same ends. Barbara Underwood, who was appointed to fill the vacant post, isn't running for a full term, but three notable Democrats are: New York City Public Advocate Tish James, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, and law professor Zephyr Teachout.
James, who'd be the first black woman elected statewide in New York, has the support of Cuomo and much of the state's Democratic establishment. Maloney, who represents a swingy district in the New York suburbs, is hoping to become the first LGBT person to win statewide office in the state and came into the race with a financial advantage thanks to his congressional war chest (though it's generated some controversy). Teachout, meanwhile, has been running the most aggressively liberal campaign, continuing the themes of her surprisingly strong 2014 primary challenge to Cuomo.
A recent Siena poll found Maloney with just a 25-24 edge on James, with Teachout not far behind at 18 and a 30 percent plurality undecided. Whoever wins will be the heavy favorite over Republican attorney Keith Wofford, though if Maloney is the nominee, Democrats will need to select a replacement to run in his stead in the 18th Congressional District.
● NY State Senate (D): Shortly before Nixon kicked off her candidacy, Cuomo and the eight members of the so-called Independent Democratic Conference in New York's state Senate announced they'd agreed to stop propping up the minority GOP and rejoin the mainstream Democratic caucus. That, however, did not dissuade the progressives who'd been challenging each of these turncoat incumbents, since they knew full well that the IDC could easily reconstitute itself if its members survived into next year.
To keep track on primary night, a full list of all IDC incumbents and their opponents is below:
- SD-11: Sen. Tony Avella vs. John Liu
- SD-13: Sen. Jose Peralta vs. Jessica Ramos
- SD-20: Sen. Jesse Hamilton vs. Zellnor Myrie
- SD-23: Sen. Diane Savino vs. Jasmine Robinson
- SD-31: Sen. Marisol Alcantara vs. Robert Jackson
- SD-34: Sen. Jeff Klein vs. Alessandra Biaggi
- SD-38: Sen. David Carlucci vs. Julie Goldberg
- SD-53: Sen. David Valesky vs. Rachel May
Currently, Democrats hold 32 seats in the Senate while Republicans hold 31. However, one conservative Democrat, Simcha Felder, caucuses with the GOP, giving them control of the chamber. If the IDC does not re-form and break away from the party once again, Democrats would need to pick up at least one Republican seat to win the Senate.